Loss Of Gross Domestic Product Research Articles

The economic consequences of neurosurgical disease in low- and middle-income countries.

The objective of this study was to estimate the economic consequences of neurosurgical disease in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The authors estimated gross domestic product (GDP) losses and the broader welfare losses attributable to 5 neurosurgical disease categories in LMICs using two distinct economic models. The value of lost output (VLO) model projects annual GDP losses due to neurosurgical disease during 2015-2030, and is based on the WHO's "Projecting the Economic Cost of Ill-health" tool. The value of lost economic welfare (VLW) model estimates total welfare losses, which is based on the value of a statistical life and includes nonmarket losses such as the inherent value placed on good health, resulting from neurosurgical disease in 2015 alone. The VLO model estimates the selected neurosurgical diseases will result in $4.4 trillion (2013 US dollars, purchasing power parity) in GDP losses during 2015-2030 in the 90 included LMICs. Economic losses are projected to disproportionately affect low- and lower-middle-income countries, risking up to a 0.6% and 0.54% loss of GDP, respectively, in 2030. The VLW model evaluated 127 LMICs, and estimates that these countries experienced $3 trillion (2013 US dollars, purchasing power parity) in economic welfare losses in 2015. Regardless of the model used, the majority of the losses can be attributed to stroke and traumatic brain injury. The economic impact of neurosurgical diseases in LMICs is significant. The magnitude of economic losses due to neurosurgical diseases in LMICs provides further motivation beyond already compelling humanitarian reasons for action.

Assessing china s waste management activities using a computable general equilibrium model

In the last 30 years, China’s rapid economic development has been accompanied by serious environmental pollution problems. In 2007, the overall waste management cost is estimated to have reached about 230.5 bil CNY and 0.87 % of China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). To reduce the heavy environmental burden andrealise the transformation of economic structure, the government proposed to pursue sustainable development in the 13th National Five-Year Plan (2015 - 2020). The objective of this paper is to evaluate the social-economic features of China’s waste management activities in different sustainable scenarios. Toachieve this goal, this paper established a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) distinguishing the waste management sectors from open sources, and then constructed a country-level dynamic multi-sectoral Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Using this model, this paper analysed the situation of China’s waste management sectors in three Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) until 2030. The simulation results showed that in a high sustainable scenario, the waste management cost will rise to 323.7 bil CNY in 2030, and its weight of GDP will drop to 0.23 %. In a middle road scenario and a rocky road scenario, the GDP losses in 2030 are 355.8 bil CNY and 376.9 bil CNY with a weight of 0.27 % and 0.30 %.

Combining low-carbon economic development and oil exploration in Brazil? An energy–economy assessment

ABSTRACTBrazil's nationally determined contribution (NDC) pledged under the Paris Agreement has marked a new stage in its climate policy towards strengthening low-carbon economic development beyond the recent drastic cuts in emissions from deforestation. Brazil especially means to limit oil consumption driven by future economic growth and to increase energy efficiency and biofuel use in the transport sector. On the other hand, Brazil still aspires to become a major petroleum province given its huge reserves of ‘pre-salt’ oil. This article aims to clarify under what conditions low-carbon economic development and oil exploration can possibly be combined in Brazil and what would be the energy system, environmental and macroeconomic implications of enabling policies for doing so. To address these questions, an energy–economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Brazilian economy is used to simulate alternative scenarios up to 2030. The results first show that implementing the most recent energy plans, which take into account the new economic reality in Brazil, should lead to over 20% lower domestic CO2 emissions in 2030 than the indicative NDC target, and to the export of the bulk of newfound crude oil. Second, with the same level of oil production, deeper domestic decarbonization, triggered by additional carbon pricing and sustainable efficiency measures, appears achievable with very small gross domestic product (GDP) loss and maximum oil exports, while being aligned with a 2°C emission pathway. However, (i) extra oil exports may induce net additional emissions outside Brazil and be seen as a perverse incentive and (ii) the economic growth strategy based on high oil exports may hinder the necessary diversification of the Brazilian economy.Key policy insightsLow-carbon development goals will strongly interact with oil policy in Brazil.The 2030 NDC target should be easy to achieve considering the new economic reality in Brazil.Deeper domestic decarbonization is achievable with very limited GDP loss and significant oil exports, while being aligned with a 2°C emission pathway.A broad strategic vision is needed to reconcile climate policy, energy policy and other economic development objectives.

Cost of agricultural productivity loss due to soil erosion in the European Union: From direct cost evaluation approaches to the use of macroeconomic models

AbstractMuch research has been carried out on modelling soil erosion rates under different climatic and land use conditions. Although some studies have addressed the issue of reduced crop productivity due to soil erosion, few have focused on the economic loss in terms of agricultural production and gross domestic product (GDP). In this study, soil erosion modellers and economists come together to carry out an economic evaluation of soil erosion in the European Union (EU). The study combines biophysical and macroeconomic models to estimate the cost of agricultural productivity loss due to soil erosion by water in the EU. The soil erosion rates, derived from the RUSLE2015 model, are used to estimate the loss in crop productivity (physical change in the production of plants) and to model their impact on the agricultural sector per country. A computable general equilibrium model is then used to estimate the impact of crop productivity change on agricultural production and GDP. The 12 million hectares of agricultural areas in the EU that suffer from severe erosion are estimated to lose around 0.43% of their crop productivity annually. The annual cost of this loss in agricultural productivity is estimated at around €1.25 billion. The computable general equilibrium model estimates the cost in the agricultural sector to be close to €300 million and the loss in GDP to be about €155 million. Italy emerges as the country that suffers the highest economic impact, whereas the agricultural sector in most Northern and Central European countries is only marginally affected by soil erosion losses.

Nutritional security through crop biofortification in India: Status & future prospects.

Malnutrition has emerged as one of the most serious health issues worldwide. The consumption of unbalanced diet poor in nutritional quality causes malnutrition which is more prevalent in the underdeveloped and developing countries. Deficiency of proteins, essential amino acids, vitamins and minerals leads to poor health and increased susceptibility to various diseases, which in turn lead to significant loss in Gross Domestic Product and affect the socio-economic structure of the country. Although various avenues such as dietary-diversification, food-fortification and medical-supplementation are available, biofortification of crop varieties is considered as the most sustainable and cost-effective approach where the nutrients reach the target people in natural form. Here, we have discussed the present status on the development of biofortified crop varieties for various nutritional and antinutritional factors. Ongoing programmes of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research on the improvement of nutritional traits in different crops have been presented. Challenges and future prospects of crop biofortification in India have also been discussed. The newly developed biofortified crop varieties besides serving as an important source for livelihood to poor people assume great significance in nutritional security.

Statistical and Econometric Estimation of Current and Projected Energy Utilization in Pakistan

Energy management is a vital element for sustainable development which defines the economic growth of a country. The world energy demand is growing rapidly due to the increasing population and industrial development. Energy consumption in Pakistan primarily depends upon the conventional fuels which have adverse effects on economy due to its high import rate and strong relation with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross National Product (GNP). This paper aims to elucidate the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption of Pakistan. In order to maintain the required level of economic growth rate, home extracted non-conventional fuels should be considered rather than the imports of oils with proper energy managing policies. Pakistan suffers 2 – 3% GDP loss annually due to the mismanagement of energy resource. In this research, Long-Range Energy Alternative planning system (LEAP) modeling tool has been adopted using various scenarios to evaluate energy demand till year 2045. This research also postulates and uncovers the innovative horizons for the energy planners and policymakers to accomplish the prevalent energy demands in coming years. Some recommendations are also put forward along with need of future research.

Indirect costs of diabetes and its impact on the public finance: the case of Poland

ABSTRACTBackground: Growing public and private expenditure on healthcare results i.a. from the spreading of chronic diseases. Diabetes belongs to the most frequent ones, beyond neoplasms and cardiological diseases, and hence generates a significant burden for the public finance in terms of the direct costs. However, the economy suffers also from the indirect cost of diabetes that manifests itself in the loss in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and general government revenues.Methods: This paper aims to measure this indirect cost, both in terms of GDP drop (social perspective) and public revenue drop (public finance perspective), in the case of Poland in 2012–2014. We use a modified human capital approach and unique dataset provided by the Social Security institution in Poland and the Polish Central Statistical Office.Results: Diabetes is a substantial and growing burden for the Polish economy. In the years 2012, 2013 and 2014 the indirect cost (output loss) amounted to 1.85 bn USD, 1.94 bn USD and 2.00 bn USD respectively.Conclusions: Estimated indirect cost of diabetes can be a useful input for health technology analyses of drugs or economic impact assessments of public health programmes.

The economic impacts of a changing visa fee for Chinese tourists to Australia

Chinese tourism demands in Australia have increased exponentially in recent time, driven largely by increases in the number of visitors. The hidden important fact of this market is its high price sensitivity, which is vital to the growth of the dominant Chinese tourism segment in the total inbound sector of the country. This article addresses a concern of the tourism industry regarding a possible policy change on a tourist visa fee for Chinese nationals that potentially has adverse impacts on the economy. The article demonstrates that the revenue objective of an increase in the visa fee for Chinese visitors is unlikely to be a successful policy, as it will take a long time for the visa revenue to compensate for the losses of gross domestic product. In the extreme, the GDP losses may never be compensated adequately by the increased visa revenue.

Indirect cost of non-communicable diseases deaths in the World Health Organization African Region

Background: In 2012, a total of 9 398 809 deaths from all causes occurred in the WHO African Region; out of which 2 788 381 (29.67%) were due to non-communicable diseases (NCD). The objective of this study was to estimate future gross domestic product (GDP) losses associated with NCD deaths in the African Region for use to advocate for increased investments into prevention and management of NCDs. Methods: Human capital approach is used to estimate non-health GDP losses associated with NCD deaths. Future non-health GDP losses were discounted at 3%. The analysis was done for three income groups of countries and six age groups. One-way sensitivity analysis at 5% and 10% discount rates was undertaken to assess the impact on expected non-health GDP loss estimates.Results: The 2 788 381 NCD deaths that occurred in the African Region in 2012 are estimated to have resulted in a total discounted GDP loss of Int$ 61 302 450 005. Out of that total loss, 20.36% was borne by those aged 0-4 years; 12.76% by 5-14 years; 16.64% by 15-29 years; 44.93% by 30-59 years; 2.99% by 60-69 years; and 2.33% by those aged 70 years and above. Thus, those aged between 15 and 59 years bore 61.57% of the GDP losses.Approximately 47.4%, 33.1% and 19.5% of the total loss was borne by high and upper middle-, lower middle- and low-income countries respectively. The average total non-health GDP loss was Int$ 21 985 per NCD death. The average non-health GDP lost per NCD death was Int$ 54 534 for Group 1, Int$ 21 492 for Group 2 and Int$ 9 096 for Group 3. Conclusion: Premature NCD deaths are associated with substantive GDP losses in countries of the African Region. Therefore, unless African countries and their development partners bolster their investments to assure universal population coverage of cost-effective promotive, preventive and management interventions for NCDs, prospects of achieving the United Nations General Assembly Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) might be greatly undermined in Africa.Key words: Non-communicable diseases, non-health GDP loss, NCD prevention and management, human capital approach

Demonetisation: A Boon or Bane

Demonetization was effectively planned by the think-tank but suddenly declared in an unplanned way to curb black money in Indian economy. The cash ban caused considerable damage to the wheels of the economy in the form of forced unemployment. The Indian informal sector, which provides 80 percent of total employment, was much affected. The reverse migration of work force necessitated them to adopt to a meal per day. Nearly, 2.5 lakh workers in leather industry, 20, 000 workers in diamond industry 15% to 20% of daily wagers in Jewel sector have become jobless. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate was reduced to 7.1% from 7.6% for the year 2016–17 by the Government itself. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also lowered the GDP forecast to 6.6% for 2016–17. New Investments fell by 50% in post cash ban. Rupee value also declined by 1.69% on 15.12.16. The surgical strike on black money has derailed the investors’ confidence in the stock market in the beginning. The cost of Demonetization is estimated at Rs. 4.3 trillion including the GDP losses. The Government felt the impact is transient, but the economists viewed it as firing cannonballs to kill mosquitoes. To conclude, Demonetization is a long pending measure to curb black money. In addition, the govern-ment has to employ in time all other pertinent measures in an exigent mode to make the cash ban a grand success.

The impact of electric vehicles and CCS in the context of emission trading scheme in China: A CGE-based analysis

Global warming and harsh environment make China have to accelerate the pace of low-carbon economy. Promoting Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) may be the significant ways to reduce CO2 emissions. A recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model will be constructed to explore respectively the impacts of EVs and CCS on China's macroeconomics, environmental quality and energy demand, under 6 simulation scenarios. The simulation results show that the promotion policy at a basic-level with CCS can effectively reduce CO2 emission and alleviate economic loss. Promoting the process of electric vehicles will lead to an economic loss, although it will make carbon emission peak occur in 2030. The basic-level promotion will have a better performance than the higher in carbon intensity: 0.073 and 0.079 kg-CO2/RMB in 2050. Moreover, CCS technology with EVs promotion plays an important role in protecting energy transformation sectors, reducing the loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and reducing emission but oil dependence. We highly recommend that promoting EVs with CCS is a reliable strategy to energy-savings and CO2 reduction. From 2015 to 2050, by applying this strategy, China will contribute to CO2 reduction by 24.97 Bt-CO2 or 74.35% of 2010 world total emission.

Budget impact analysis of antiplatelet therapy with ticagrelor and clopidogrel in patients with acute coronary syndrome after coronary artery bypass surgery

Clinical and economic examinations were made to study whether it is appropriate to use antiplatelet therapy (APT) with ticagrelor in combination with acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) versus a combination of clopidogrel and ASA in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) following coronary artery bypass surgery (CABS). A budget impact analysis was used. Data on the efficiency and safety of APT were taken from a relevant analysis in the subgroups of the randomized controlled trial PLATO. Direct medical cost due to APT and expenses on therapy for acute myocardial infarction, stroke, and massive bleeding, and those on medical care for patients dying from cardiovascular events and other causes, as well as indirect cost - gross domestic product (GDP) losses due to untimely death, were taken into account. The findings were assessed from the perspectives of society. The analysis indicated that direct medical costs per patient following CABS, both in case of calculation based on the recorded price for ticagrelor and on the median registered prices for clopidogrel generics, and based on the auction prices for comparison agents proved to be lower when clopidogrel was administered because of the higher cost of ticagrelor-based APT. At the same time GDP losses due to untimely death, as calculated per patient with ACS during post-CABS therapy with clopidogrel + ASA, were more than twice above average losses per patient taking ticagrelor in combination with ACA (107,122 and 221,645 rubles, respectively). From the registered price for ticagrelor and the median registered prices for clopidogrel generics, the total costs per patient with ACS following CABS were lower if Brilinta was used in combination with ASA versus therapy with clopidogrel in combination with ASA (210,092 and 273,257 rubles per year, respectively; the cost savings were 63,165 rubles per patient per year when ticagrelor was administered). On the basis of the auction prices for comparison drugs, the total costs per patient with ACS after CABS proved to be lower if Brilinta was used in combination with ASA versus therapy with brand name clopidogrel in combination with ASA (201,018 and 293,982 rubles per patients year, respectively; the cost savings were 92,963 rubles per patient per year when ticagrelor was used). The use of ticagrelor in combination with ASA ensures resource savings to treat ACS patients undergoing CABS as compared with a regiment including a combination of clopidogrel and ASA.

Realizing the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution: The Role of Renewable Energies in Vietnam

This study contributes to the realization of intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) by analyzing their implications for the energy production system and the economy, and determines the role of renewable energies (RE) in reducing the challenge of committing to the INDCs. The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model was used to assess seven scenarios having the same socioeconomic development but different shares of RE in power generation. By comparing different relative reductions caused by the emission constraints vis-a-vis the business-as-usual (BaU) scenario, the mitigation costs can be estimated. Results show that the economic impact could be reduced by around 55% in terms of welfare loss (from 6.0% to 2.7%) and by around 36% in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) loss (from 3.4% to 2.1%) through the incorporation of high levels of renewable energy. Furthermore, the additional double deployment of wind and SPV to 5.4% and 12.0%, respectively, which currently comprise 43.1% of the renewable energies used in electricity generation, could reduce the GDP loss from 2.1% to 1.9% and reduce the welfare loss from 2.7% to 1.5% in order to achieve a 25.0% GHG emissions reduction. These losses are less than those in the pricing-only scenario (2.1% and 2.3%, respectively).

Productivity losses associated with tuberculosis deaths in the World Health Organization African region.

BackgroundIn 2014, almost half of the global tuberculosis deaths occurred in the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region. Approximately 21.5 % of the 6 060 742 TB cases (new and relapse) reported to the WHO in 2014 were in the African Region. The specific objective of this study was to estimate future gross domestic product (GDP) losses associated with TB deaths in the African Region for use in advocating for better strategies to prevent and control tuberculosis.MethodsThe cost-of-illness method was used to estimate non-health GDP losses associated with TB deaths. Future non-health GDP losses were discounted at 3 %. The analysis was conducted for three income groups of countries. One-way sensitivity analysis at 5 and 10 % discount rates was undertaken to assess the impact on the expected non-health GDP loss.ResultsThe 0.753 million tuberculosis deaths that occurred in the African Region in 2014 would be expected to decrease the future non-health GDP by International Dollars (Int$) 50.4 billion. Nearly 40.8, 46.7 and 12.5 % of that loss would come from high and upper-middle- countries or lower-middle- and low-income countries, respectively. The average total non-health GDP loss would be Int$66 872 per tuberculosis death. The average non-health GDP loss per TB death was Int$167 592 for Group 1, Int$69 808 for Group 2 and Int$21 513 for Group 3.ConclusionTuberculosis exerts a sizeable economic burden on the economies of the WHO AFR countries. This implies the need to strongly advocate for better strategies to prevent and control tuberculosis and to help countries end the epidemic of tuberculosis by 2030, as envisioned in the United Nations General Assembly resolution on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40249-016-0138-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Indirect cost of maternal mortality in the WHO African Region, 2013

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to estimate discounted value of potential non-health gross domestic product (GDP) losses attributable to the 167,913 maternal deaths that occurred among 45 countries in the WHO African Region in 2013. Design/methodology/approach – A cost-of-illness method was used to estimate non-health GDP losses related to maternal deaths. Future non-health GDP losses were discounted at 3 per cent. The analysis was undertaken for countries categorized under three income groups. Findings – The discounted value of future non-health GDP loss due to maternal deaths in 2013 is in the order of Int$5.53 billion. About 17.6 per cent of that occurred in countries in the high and upper income group, 45.7 per cent in the middle income group and 36.7 per cent in the lower middle income group, and the average non-health GDP loss per maternal death was Int$136,799, Int$43,304 and Int$19,822, respectively. Research limitations/implications – This study omitted costs related to direct health care, direct non-health care treatment, patient time for treatment, informal caregivers’ time, intangible costs such as pain and grief, lost output due to morbidity, and negative externalities on the family and community. Social implications – The study demonstrated that maternal deaths have a sizable negative effect on non-health GDP of the region, implying that maternal mortality is not only a human rights concern but also an economic issue and that universal coverage of maternal health interventions ought to be an imperative goal in all countries. Originality/value – This paper provides new evidence on the impact of maternal deaths on non-health GDP of 45 countries in the WHO African Region.

A weighted fuzzy linear programming model in economic input–output analysis: an application to risk management of energy system disruptions

Climate change exposes economic systems to numerous risks, including reduced agricultural production and electric power supply shortages. The interdependent nature of economic systems causes disruptions in any sector to cascade to other sectors via forward and backward linkages. This work develops an optimization model with which allocation of scarce goods or resources can be optimized; the model uses an overall index of satisfaction of fuzzy economic output goals under conditions of scarcity caused by climatic disruptions. The proposed model includes a vulnerability measure that integrates information elicited from expert judgment. A case study based on a scenario of drought-induced electricity shortage in the Philippine economy is examined. Results show that trade, transportation and service-oriented industries suffer losses in gross domestic product in the Philippine case.

Indirect costs associated with deaths from the Ebola virus disease in West Africa.

BackgroundBy 28 June 2015, there were a total of 11,234 deaths from the Ebola virus disease (EVD) in five West African countries (Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Nigeria and Sierra Leone). The objective of this study was to estimate the future productivity losses associated with EVD deaths in these West African countries, in order to encourage increased investments in national health systems.MethodsA cost-of-illness method was employed to calculate future non-health (NH) gross domestic product (GDP) (NHGDP) losses associated with EVD deaths. The future non-health GDP loss (NHGDPLoss) was discounted at 3 %. Separate analyses were done for three different age groups (< =14 years, 15–44 years and = >45 years) for the five countries (Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone) affected by EVD. We also conducted a one-way sensitivity analysis at 5 and 10 % discount rates to gauge their impacts on expected NHGDPLoss.ResultsThe discounted value of future NHGDPLoss due to the 11,234 deaths associated with EVD was estimated to be Int$ (international dollars) 155,663,244. About 27.86 % of the loss would be borne by Guinea, 34.84 % by Liberia, 0.10 % by Mali, 0.24 % by Nigeria and 36.96 % by Sierra Leone. About 27.27 % of the loss is attributed to those aged under 14 years, 66.27 % to those aged 15–44 years and 6.46 % to those aged over 45 years. The average NHGDPLoss per EVD death was estimated to be Int$ 17,473 for Guinea, Int$ 11,283 for Liberia, Int$ 25,126 for Mali, Int$ 47,364 for Nigeria and Int$ 14,633 for Sierra Leone.ConclusionIn spite of alluded limitations, the estimates of human and economic losses reported in this paper, in addition to those projected by the World Bank, show that EVD imposes a significant economic burden on the affected West African countries. That heavy burden, coupled with human rights and global security concerns, underscores the urgent need for increased domestic and external investments to enable Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone (and other vulnerable African countries) to develop resilient health systems, including core capacities to detect, assess, notify, verify and report events, and to respond to public health risks and emergencies.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40249-015-0079-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Estonian energy supply strategy assessment for 2035 and its vulnerability to climate driven shocks

Estonia is a relatively small country with a limited supply of indigenous energy resources mainly consisting of oil shale, wood, and peat. Estonia is also the only country in Europe with a dominant electricity production by burning oil shale. Around 90% of the overall electric energy production in Estonia comes from the Narva Power Plants. This presents great challenges and problems due to massive emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere as well as radiological impact on the environment. Therefore, the current energy supply strategy can be considered hazardous and an unpopular choice for future energy system planning. In this article, we analyze the current energy policy as well as inclusion of new strategies to produce electricity for Estonia for a target year of 2035. We use a computer model Model for Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts (MESSAGE) to provide optimization and aim in helping the policymakers in the Estonian decision making process. We also add a specific case in the MESSAGE model to examine the ability of the current electricity supply strategy to handle climate related shocks with a special focus on cold weather in two plausible cases; single cold winter and prolonged cold winter. Results indicate that unexpected demand shocks may cause serious losses in gross domestic product (GDP). Therefore, the authors come to the conclusion that extra capacity is highly recommendable for a number of reasons. We also find that nuclear power becomes economically preferable to oil shale with a CO2 tax of €20/t. Yet moving toward nuclear or other low CO2 alternatives presents certain challenges. © 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Environ Prog, 35: 469–478, 2016

Lost productive life years caused by chronic conditions in Australians aged 45-64 years, 2010-2030.

To estimate (1) productive life years (PLYs) lost because of chronic conditions in Australians aged 45-64 years from 2010 to 2030, and (2) the impact of this loss on gross domestic product (GDP) over the same period. A microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, was used to project lost PLYs caused by chronic conditions from 2010 to 2030. The base population consisted of respondents aged 45-64 years to the Australian Bureau of Statistics Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers 2003 and 2009. The national impact of lost PLYs was assessed with Treasury's GDP equation. Lost PLYs due to chronic disease at 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (ie, whole life years lost because of chronic disease); the national impact of lost PLYs at the same time points (GDP loss caused by PLYs); the effects of population growth, labour force trends and chronic disease trends on lost PLYs and GDP at each time point. Using Health&WealthMOD2030, we estimated a loss of 347,000 PLYs in 2010; this was projected to increase to 459,000 in 2030 (32.28% increase over 20 years). The leading chronic conditions associated with premature exits from the labour force were back problems, arthritis and mental and behavioural problems. The percentage increase in the number of PLYs lost by those aged 45-64 years was greater than that of population growth for this age group (32.28% v 27.80%). The strongest driver of the increase in lost PLYs was population growth (accounting for 89.18% of the increase), followed by chronic condition trends (8.28%). Our study estimates an increase of 112 000 lost PLYs caused by chronic illness in older workers in Australia between 2010 and 2030, with the most rapid growth projected to occur in men aged 55-59 years and in women aged 60-64 years. The national impact of this lost labour force participation on GDP was estimated to be $37.79 billion in 2010, increasing to $63.73 billion in 2030.

The Global Burden of Potential Productivity Loss from Uncorrected Presbyopia

The onset of presbyopia in middle adulthood results in potential losses in productivity among otherwise healthy adults if uncorrected or undercorrected. The economic burden could be significant in lower-income countries, where up to 94% of cases may be uncorrected or undercorrected. This study estimates the global burden of potential productivity lost because of uncorrected functional presbyopia. Population data from the US Census Bureau were combined with the estimated presbyopia prevalence, age of onset, employment rate, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in current US dollars, and near vision impairment disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study to estimate the global loss of productivity from uncorrected and undercorrected presbyopia in each country in 2011. To allow comparison with earlier work, we also calculated the loss with the conservative assumption that the contribution to productivity extends only up to 50 years of age. The economic modeling did not require the use of subjects. We estimated the number of cases of uncorrected or undercorrected presbyopia in each country among the working-age population. The number of working-age cases was multiplied by the labor force participation rate, the employment rate, a disability weight, and the GDP per capita to estimate the potential loss of GDP due to presbyopia. The outcome being measured is the lost productivity in 2011 US dollars resulting from uncorrected or undercorrected presbyopia. There were an estimated 1.272 billion cases of presbyopia worldwide in 2011. A total of 244 million cases, uncorrected or undercorrected among people aged <50 years, were associated with a potential productivity loss of US $11.023 billion (0.016% of global GDP). If all those people aged <65 years are assumed to be productive, the potential productivity loss would be US $25.367 billion or 0.037% of global GDP. Correcting presbyopia to the level achieved in Europe would reduce the burden to US $1.390 billion (0.002% of global GDP). Even with conservative assumptions regarding the productive population, presbyopia is a significant burden on productivity, and correction would have a significant impact on productivity in lower-income countries.