Abstract
This study contributes to the realization of intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) by analyzing their implications for the energy production system and the economy, and determines the role of renewable energies (RE) in reducing the challenge of committing to the INDCs. The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model was used to assess seven scenarios having the same socioeconomic development but different shares of RE in power generation. By comparing different relative reductions caused by the emission constraints vis-a-vis the business-as-usual (BaU) scenario, the mitigation costs can be estimated. Results show that the economic impact could be reduced by around 55% in terms of welfare loss (from 6.0% to 2.7%) and by around 36% in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) loss (from 3.4% to 2.1%) through the incorporation of high levels of renewable energy. Furthermore, the additional double deployment of wind and SPV to 5.4% and 12.0%, respectively, which currently comprise 43.1% of the renewable energies used in electricity generation, could reduce the GDP loss from 2.1% to 1.9% and reduce the welfare loss from 2.7% to 1.5% in order to achieve a 25.0% GHG emissions reduction. These losses are less than those in the pricing-only scenario (2.1% and 2.3%, respectively).
Highlights
On 12 December 2015, the Conference of Parties 21 (COP21) in Paris achieved a so-called “historic”or “universal” agreement to combat climate change and unleash actions and investment towards a low carbon, resilient, and sustainable future
The sub-sections below describe the effect of the different and a 0.9% reduction in electricity generation, leading to a 2.1% welfare loss and a 2.4% gross domestic product (GDP) loss to scenarios on the energy system and economy of Vietnam in more detail
A similar situation was observed in the which was reduced to 2.1% in the HighRE-HighINDC scenario, and reached 0.1% and 0.3% in the consumption reduction: Vietnam experienced the highest GDP loss of 3.4% in the LowRE-HighINDC
Summary
“universal” agreement to combat climate change and unleash actions and investment towards a low carbon, resilient, and sustainable future. Under this agreement, 195 countries were brought together for the first time to tackle a cause based on their historic, current, and future responsibilities. The intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) is the latest pledge for the climate negotiation [1,2] that brings several concerns [3]. Most of the discussions focus on the political negotiation and financial supports, rather than the possibility of bridging the gap between current emission pathways and the 2 ̋ C target [4].
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