BackgroundQuantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is considered an objective biomarker of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), but the longitudinal progression of MRI biomarkers in gluteal muscle groups and their predictive value for future motor function have not been described.ObjectiveTo explore MRI biomarkers of the gluteal muscle groups as predictors of motor function decline in DMD by characterizing the progression over 12 months.Materials and methodsA total of 112 participants with DMD were enrolled and underwent MRI examination of the gluteal muscles to determine fat fraction and longitudinal relaxation time (T1). Investigations were based on gluteal muscle groups including flexors, extensors, adductors, and abductors. The North Star Ambulatory Assessment and timed functional tests were performed. All participants returned for follow-up at an average of 12 months and were divided into two subgroups (functional stability/decline groups) based on changes in timed functional tests. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression methods were used to explore the risk factors associated with future motor function decline.ResultsFor the functional decline group, all T1 values decreased, while fat fraction values increased significantly over 12 months (P<0.05). For the functional stability group, only the fat fraction of the flexors and abductors increased significantly over 12 months (P<0.05). The baseline T1 value was positively correlated with North Star Ambulatory Assessment and negatively correlated with timed functional tests at the 12-month follow-up (P<0.001), while the baseline fat fraction value was negatively correlated with North Star Ambulatory Assessment and positively correlated with timed functional tests at the 12-month follow-up (P<0.001). Multivariate regression showed that increased fat fraction of the abductors was associated with future motor function decline (model 1: odds ratio [OR]=1.104, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.026~1.187, P=0.008; model 2: OR=1.085, 95% CI: 1.013~1.161, P=0.019), with an area under the curve of 0.874.ConclusionFat fraction of the abductors is a powerful predictor of future motor functional decline in DMD patients at 12 months, underscoring the importance of focusing early on this parameter in patients with DMD.