Long-term Expectations Research Articles

Vagus nerve stimulation: a 20-year Australian experience.

Vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) therapy was first approved in the mid-1990s in the USA, Europe and Australia, with demonstrable efficacy in paediatric populations. Benefit in seizure frequency reduction can be observed up to 2years post-intervention; however, few studies assess outcomes beyond this period. Furthermore, paediatric cohort sizes are small, limiting generalisability of outcome assessments. We evaluate VNS insertion outcomes and complications or side-effects in a large paediatric cohort, over a 20-year period from Queensland's first VNS insertion. A retrospective review was conducted of all paediatric VNS insertions at the Queensland Children's Hospital (QCH) and the Mater Children's Hospital/Mater Children's Private Hospital (MCH/MCPH) Brisbane. A minimum of 1-year follow-up from 1999 to 2020 was required for inclusion. Patients were assessed on demographics, epilepsy details, seizure outcomes and complications or side-effects. In this extended follow-up cohort (76 patients, 7.2 ± 5.3years), 51.3% of patients had ≥ 50% seizure frequency reduction, while 73.7% experienced an Engel III outcome (worthwhile benefit) or better. Eleven patients (14.9%) were seizure-free at follow-up, and 81.6% retained long-term therapy. Stimulation-related side-effects are common (17.1%) but rarely result in stimulation cessation (3.9%). Cessation occurred in 14 patients (18.4%) and most commonly related to minimal benefit (13.2%). Demographics, aetiology, seizure nature and surgical factors did not influence outcomes. Over extended treatment periods, a large proportion of patients will benefit significantly from VNS therapy. Approximately 4 of 5 patients will retain VNS therapy, and in cases of cessation, this is most commonly related to minimal benefit. Underlying demographics, aetiology or seizure nature do not influence outcomes. This 20-year Queensland assessment of VNS therapy outcomes informs long-term expectation of VNS therapy.

Optimal Slow Steaming Speed for Container Ships under the EU Emission Trading System

Slow steaming is an operational measure in ocean-going vessels sailing at slow speeds. It can help climate mitigation efforts by cutting down marine fuel consumption and consequently reducing CO2 and other Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG). Due to climate change both the European Union (EU) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) are analysing the inclusion of international shipping in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) in the near future or alternatively implementing a carbon tax. The paper proposes a methodology to decide the optimal speed of a vessel taking into account its characteristics and the factors that determine its economic results. The calculated cash flow can be used in valuation models. The methodology is applied for a case study for any container ship in a range from 2000 to 20,000 Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEU) on a leg of a round trip from Shanghai to Rotterdam. We calculate how speed reduction, CO2 emissions and ship owner’s earnings per year may vary between a business-as-usual scenario and a scenario in which shipping is included in the ETS. The analysis reveals that the optimal speed varies with the size of the vessel and depends on several variables such as marine fuel prices, cargo freight rates and other voyage costs. Results show that the highest optimal speed is in the range of 5500–13,000 TEUs whether or not the ETS is applied. As the number of TEUs transported in a vessel increases emissions per TEU decrease. In an established freight rate market, the optimal speed fluctuates by 1.8 knots. Finally, the medium- and long-term expectations for slow steaming are analysed based on future market prices.

Long-Term Parental Absence and Educational Expectations among Children: A Quantitative Analysis of Left-Behind Children in China

Long-Term Parental Absence and Educational Expectations among Children: A Quantitative Analysis of Left-Behind Children in China

Аналіз класичних та сучасних підходів до визначення структури політичної ідентичності

The article is devoted to the analysis of the problem of determining the structural components of political identity. The analysis of the basic approaches and models in which various elements of political identity are allocated is carried out: classical approaches that consider party identity as the basis of political identity; electoral behavioral, communication and self-identification, within which political identity is connected with electoral choice, the nature of interaction in the social environment of voters; crisis identity models in which political identity is formed and regulated under the influence of reference groups; system-hierarchical, within which political identity is determined by value-ideological orientations or dominants in the political ideas of citizens. It is established that the main structural elements of political identity are: socio-status characteristics; assessments of the economic and political situation; party preferences; dispositions on specific political and socio-economic issues; assessments of personal qualities of political leaders; long-term expectations from parties and candidates. The main factors that should be taken into account in the analysis of political identity are determined: socio-cultural (caused by social differentiation of the population); institutional (formal and informal norms, the nature of political institutions); ideological (ideologues that affect the party-ideological identification of the population); socio-demographic (age, sex, region of residence, socio-professional affiliation); cultural and civilizational (value orientations, geopolitical orientations, confessional affiliation); activity-behavioral (political activity and political participation).

Comparative analysis of renewable energy development in the Republic of Buryatia (Russia) and Mongolia

The constantly growing demand for electricity and relatively small energy capacities are forcing the Republic of Buryatia (to a greater extent) and Mongolia, which are limited in some types of economic activity, to look for new sources of energy. One of these restrictions is the ban on the construction of hydroelectric power plants on rivers of the Lake Baikal basin. Therefore, Buryatia and Mongolia have taken the path of building environmentally friendly power plants and have succeeded in many ways. Despite the high costs of setting up clean power plants, infrastructure investments in alternative energy are long-term and expected to be profitable. Investors (including foreign ones) placing their money in a seemingly low-profit project, having long-term expectations. Competent investors do not run after “quick money”, realising that the return period of the constructed power plants will be long, as at the moment of development they have a relatively low efficiency. Despite the criticism of some researchers [1], they invest in green energy, modern infrastructure and a future without emissions (CO2, NO2, SO2 and other gases) from burning coal, fuel oil and firewood. Other experts see in the development of alternative energy a great potential [2-5], refuting arguments of critics about high cost of electricity [6].

Does New Zealand's inflation target anchor long-term expectations?

A claimed benefit of an inflation target is that it provides an anchor for long-term inflation expectations. We evaluate this by using survey-based inflation expectations data for New Zealand to assess whether forecasts for different horizons systematically converge to the RBNZ's target. We find evidence of this from the aggregated expectations data, and for most individual professional economists and financial sector forecasters in our sample. However, the evidence from forecasters in other sectors is mixed. In particular, those from the business community appear more focussed on the RBNZ's inflation track record. This could contribute to episodes of persistently low inflation.

Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question

Using a variety of approaches, this paper shows that long-term inflation expectations have de-anchored from the ECB’s inflation aim. The long-term expectations reported in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters have not regained the levels that prevailed before the 2013-14 disinflation. Long-term expectations have also become sensitive to short-term expectations and to negative surprises to inflation. Forecasters who participated in most of the survey rounds were highly sensitive to short-term developments in inflation.

Risk contagion of global stock markets under COVID‐19:A network connectedness method

COVID‐19 spread throughout the world during 2020, bringing an increase in global financial risk. We use connectedness network to investigate the risk contagion among global stock markets during the COVID‐19 pandemic and analyse its source. Furthermore, we use spectrum analysis to explore the risk contagion effects on different frequency bands, which allows us to explore its speed and channels. We find that the United Kingdom and Italy are core transmitters of risks, and connectedness is mainly driven by low‐frequency components, which demonstrates that the risks are spread by affecting supply chains in global markets and investors’ long‐term expectations for the economy.

Changes in inflation compensation and oil prices: short-term and long-term dynamics

This paper investigates the relationship between changes in euro area short-term and long-term market-based inflation expectations from January 2005 to September 2018, also devoting special attention to the relevance of the oil market. The full sample is split into three subsets related to different economic and financial landscapes. To model the conditional mean and the variance–covariance structure, a VAR-CCC-GARCH specification with oil effects in the volatility proves to be a preferable approach compared to other multivariate GARCH models. In general, the conditional correlation between changes in short-term and long-term inflation compensation appears as constant and relatively low in each subset, though increasing since mid-2014. Furthermore, there are no signs of fundamental deviations in how changes in short-term inflation expectations affect changes in longer-term expectations and vice versa. There is evidence that changes in short-term inflation expectations tend to respond to the movements of oil prices over time, while changes in longer-term ones started responding to crude dynamics after mid-2008. On the whole, these findings are relevant for analysts, investors and especially for the policymakers who charged with ensuring price stability.

Psycho Social Impact of Covid-19 on Saudi Children

Aim: With over 60 million recorded cases, and the death of 2 million the world is indeed struggling with a serious public health threat, coronavirus. Lack of health awareness and directive particularly for children. Health care providers and parents are seriously worried for children as this is an unknown disease with no evidence-based to build up a sound clinical decision. Being restricted to a limited zone and ordered to a tightened precautions and safety roles are gated your psychological burden, multiple neuropsychiatric indices, and psychosocial stigma. School and active life is an essential part of the children's lifetime, while temporary school closures as a result of health crises are not only affecting the educational achievement but most importantly the physical -mental, and social aspects. The home detention for children is indeed upsetting and anticipated to have detrimental crucial effects on children’s physical and mental capacity and shatter the sense of growth normalcy that schools used to provide. The aim is to study the impact of Covid-19 quarantine consequences on psychosocial on Saudi children. Method: A cross-sectional, analytical, comparative study using an anonymous electronic survey to the general population aged 3-15 years was done in which it showed parents-reported changes in the reaction, behaviors, and attitudes of their children related to psychosocial status during the Covid-19 lockdown. Result: The behavior changes were noticed in the isolation, aggressiveness, physical activity, and reaction to learning. Families were noticed an attitude, behavior and psychological signs in almost 52, 58.57% respectively of their children. The family long-term impact expectations are negative in almost 40% of the population. Conclusion: Almost 40-45% of the population showed the abnormal psychosocial impact of the Covid19 Quarantine consequences. The expected long-term impact may reach more than 40%. Estimates incidence in normal circumstances was 2-3% to 22%.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Falling Long-term Inflation Expectations?

The Macroeconomic Effects of Falling Long-term Inflation Expectations?

Working From Home During COVID-19 and Beyond: Survey Evidence From Employers

Based on survey responses from more than 1,700 managers in Germany, this study elicits employers’ perceptions of working from home during COVID-19 and their long-term expectations for the time after the pandemic. Based on employers’ forecasts of the share of employees working from home post-COVID, the within-firm intensity of the expected shift is quantified. Many firms expect a persistent shift towards working from home induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Larger firms and firms with pre-COVID use of working from home are most likely to expect a persistent and intensive shift. As the empirical results indicate, underlying mechanisms for the expected shift might include learning effects facilitating an improved perception of working from home, investments in physical and human capital, a general push in firms’ digital progress, and the fact that most firms do not observe a reduction in productivity due to working from home during COVID-19.

FTLD Treatment: Current Practice and Future Possibilities.

While behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD) and primary progressive aphasia (PPA) remain unrelenting and universally fatal conditions, there is a framework for supportive treatment in patients diagnosed with these frontotemporal dementia (FTD) syndromes and the larger spectrum of clinical syndromes associated with frontotemporal lobar degeneration (FTLD) pathology on autopsy. A managing physician has an important role in weighing therapeutic options, organizing caregiver support, and framing long-term expectations for patients and caregivers. Additionally, a dedicated neurologist may assist patients and caregivers in navigating a growing range of FTD research, including exciting opportunities in clinical therapeutic trials. This chapter will review current therapeutic options for patients with bvFTD and PPA and detail the landscape of potential new disease-modifying therapies targeting the pathophysiology or FTLD.

Do Inflation Expectations Improve Model-Based Inflation Forecasts?

Those of professional forecasters do. For a wide range of time series models for the euro area and its member states we find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF and Consensus Economics compared to their counterparts that do not. The gains in forecast accuracy from incorporating inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide useful information. By contrast, incorporating expectations derived from financial market prices or those of firms and households does not lead to systematic improvements in forecast performance. Individual models we consider are typically better than univariate benchmarks but for the euro area the professional forecasters are more accurate, especially in recent years (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food and both point and density forecast are evaluated using real-time data vintages over 2001-2019.

What’s behind firms’ inflation forecasts?

On what do firms base their expectations about future inflation? We investigate this by exploiting the Survey of Inflation and Growth Expectations carried out by Banca d’Italia and Il Sole 24 Ore on a sample of Italian firms. Several sources of information contribute to shaping short- and long-term expectations, such as media reports, professional forecasts, personal shopping experience, the inflation experienced when dealing with suppliers and the contract collective bargaining agreements. We find that firms’ inflation expectations are significantly affected by wage increases; being treated with the information on past inflation also plays a part. By estimating a price pass-through of wages at the firm level, we also argue that the process of prices’ adjustment following a contract renewal matters for shaping the view of entrepreneurs on consumer prices at the macro-level.

Perspectives on the Capabilities for the Selection of Strategic Projects

Strategic projects are large scale, complex, and require significant investments and resources. These projects aim at gaining long-term social and economic benefits. Therefore, organizations focusing on strategic projects should use a consistent approach that suits their strategy, capability, and long-term expectations. Based on the four research questions and content analysis of the literature, generic processes used for the strategic project selection in tandem with the managerial capabilities are identified in this paper. The generic processes and managerial capabilities are used to develop a generic framework for strategic project selection. The framework is used for literature analysis in the paper. The review shows that both qualitative and quantitative methods are used for strategic project selection. Some possible research directions have also been proposed at the end of the review. The paper provides value to both researchers and practitioners in terms of tools available and a guidance on project selection through a structured process framework.

Developmental Predictors of Cognitive and Adaptive Outcomes in Genetic Subtypes of Autism Spectrum Disorder.

Approximately one-fourth of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) cases are associated with a disruptive genetic variant. Many of these ASD genotypes have been described previously, and are characterized by unique constellations of medical, psychiatric, developmental, and behavioral features. Development of precision medicine care for affected individuals has been challenging due to the phenotypic heterogeneity that exists even within each genetic subtype. In the present study, we identify developmental milestones that predict cognitive and adaptive outcomes for five of the most common ASD genotypes. Sixty-five youth with a known pathogenic variant involving ADNP, CHD8, DYRK1A, GRIN2B, or SCN2A genes participated in cognitive and adaptive testing. Exploratory linear regressions were used to identify developmental milestones that predicted cognitive and adaptive outcomes within each gene group. We hypothesized that the earliest and most predictive milestones would vary across gene groups, but would be consistent across outcomes within each genetic subtype. Within the ADNP group, age of walking predicted cognitive outcomes, while age of first words predicted adaptive behaviors. Age of phrases predicted adaptive functioning in the CHD8 group, but cognitive outcomes were not clearly associated with early developmental milestones. Verbal milestones were the strongest predictors of cognitive and adaptive outcomes for individuals with mutations to DYRK1A, GRIN2B, or SCN2A. These trends inform decisions about treatment planning and long-term expectations for affected individuals, and they add to the growing body of research linking molecular genetic function to brain development and phenotypic outcomes. LAY SUMMARY: Researchers have found many genetic causes of autism including mutations to ADNP, CHD8, DYRK1A, GRIN2B, and SCN2A genes. We found that each genetic cause had different early developmental milestones that explained the overall functioning of the children when they were older. Depending on the genetic cause, the age that a child first starts walking and/or talking may help to better understand and support a child's development who has a mutation to one of the above genes. Autism Res 2020, 13: 1659-1669. © 2020 International Society for Autism Research and Wiley Periodicals LLC.

Nanoracks Low Earth Orbit Commercialization Study: Experiences and Outcomes

This article discusses the conclusions and implications of Nanoracks' NASA-Commissioned Low Earth Orbit Commercialization Study, or LEOCOM. The objective of LEOCOM was to leverage Nanoracks' decade of expertise as a user of the International Space Station as a commercial platform to describe the commercial future of the low Earth orbit (LEO) economic ecosystem. To complete this study, Nanoracks collected a team of 13 commercial suppliers, service providers, users, and consultants. The data these partners provided were utilized by Nanoracks and combined with existing information on current markets to generate a set of key policy and market recommendations. The LEOCOM study specifically focused on the role that platforms play as lynchpins in the LEO economy. In particular, Nanoracks used the Outpost platform as a baseline. Outposts are a Nanoracks concept for creating habitable volume from spent upper stages of multiple launch vehicles, in the case of the LEOCOM study, from United Launch Alliance (ULA) Centaur III and Centaur V stages. Once on orbit, robotic arms autonomously convert the stages after fuel venting, utilizing materials brought up to orbit in mission modules to complete full repurposing of the tanks before astronaut ingress. Although this is one among several platforms being considered by Nanoracks for future crewed platforms, costs associated with repurposing provide the core inputs to the financial model. As a result of this study, Nanoracks generated a higher resolution view of complexities involved in ensuring the sustainability of a LEO commercial marketplace. Coloring these conclusions was an underlining assumption that most actors would require some amount of government investment before attaining true sustainability, since a self-sustaining LEO economy does not yet exist in any appreciable form analogous to vibrant terrestrial markets. In this context, various critical insights were gleaned about the manner in which public and commercial actors could work together to efficiently set appropriate and long-term expectations of stability for government and private investor participation. Along with this analysis, Nanoracks took the unprecedented step of engaging key NASA staff in a Policy Simulation. This simulation focused on 3 hypothetical scenarios that Nanoracks wrote in consultation with NASA, and those were composed with Nanoracks' best assumptions about what forms future real-world policy challenges might take. The purpose of this exercise was not necessarily to receive a response from NASA regarding any particular challenge, but rather to analyze the processes that NASA undertook to answer policy questions likely to arise in the operation of a commercial LEO space station.

New Developmentalism: beyond competitive exchange rate

ABSTRACT The aim of this article is to show that the achievement of a competitive level for real exchange rate is a necessary, although not sufficient condition for the catching-up of middle-income countries to developed countries. It is also required a change in the long-term expectations of real exchange rate by entrepreneurs which requires the elimination of the underlying causes of the tendency of overvaluation of real exchange rate, that encompass the Dutch Disease and capital account liberalization. Due to the existence of technological gap, industrial equilibrium exchange rate in middle-income countries may be higher enough to compensate domestic firms for their technological backwardness relative to firms of developed countries. This means that there is a space for Industrial and Science and Technology Policies in the New-Developmentalist theoretical framework.

Keynes’ treatment of dynamics and stability in a monetary economy: the role played by expectations from the Tract on Monetary Reform to the General Theory

Contrary to the commonly accepted view, Keynes’ static treatment of the effective demand principle in his General Theory should be considered more as an achievement than as an incomplete proof. The Tract investigated the fluctuations due to short-term forecasting errors. Next, the Treatise extended the analysis of expectations’ mismatches to the determination of the level of investment. Hence the major achievement of the General Theory can be located in its demonstration of the possible existence of an underemployment equilibrium due to the indeterminacy of long-term expectations.