Longwave Feedback Research Articles

Effect of Uncertainty in Water Vapor Continuum Absorption on CO2 Forcing, Longwave Feedback, and Climate Sensitivity

AbstractWe investigate the effect of uncertainty in water vapor continuum absorption at terrestrial wavenumbers on CO2 forcing , longwave feedback λ, and climate sensitivity at surface temperatures Ts between 270 and 330 K. We calculate this uncertainty using a line‐by‐line radiative‐transfer model and a single‐column atmospheric model, assuming a moist‐adiabatic temperature lapse‐rate and 80% relative humidity in the troposphere, an isothermal stratosphere, and clear skies. Due to the lack of a comprehensive model of continuum uncertainty, we represent continuum uncertainty in two different idealized approaches: In the first, we assume that the total continuum absorption is constrained at reference conditions; in the second, we assume that the total continuum absorption is constrained for all atmospheres in our model. In both approaches, we decrease the self continuum by 10% and adjust the foreign continuum accordingly. We find that continuum uncertainty mainly affects through its effect on λ. In the first approach, continuum uncertainty mainly affects λ through a decrease in the total continuum absorption with Ts; in the second approach, continuum uncertainty affects λ through a vertical redistribution of continuum absorption. In both experiments, the effect of continuum uncertainty on is modest at Ts = 288 K (≈0.02 K) but substantial at Ts ≥ 300 K (up to 0.2 K), because at high Ts, the effects of decreasing the self continuum and increasing the foreign continuum have the same sign. These results highlight the importance of a correct partitioning between self and foreign continuum to accurately determine the temperature dependence of Earth's climate sensitivity.

A Lagrangian perspective on the lifecycle and cloud radiative effect of deep convective clouds over Africa

Abstract. The anvil clouds of tropical deep convection have large radiative effects in both the shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) spectra with the average magnitudes of both over 100 W m−2. Despite this, due to the opposite sign of these fluxes, the net average of the anvil cloud radiative effect (CRE) over the tropics is observed to be neutral. Research into the response of the anvil CRE to climate change has primarily focused on the feedbacks of anvil cloud height and anvil cloud area, in particular regarding the LW feedback. However, tropical deep convection over land has a strong diurnal cycle which may couple with the shortwave component of the anvil cloud radiative effect. As this diurnal cycle is poorly represented in climate models it is vital to gain a better understanding of how its changes impact the anvil CRE. To study the connection between the deep convective cloud (DCC) lifecycle and CRE, we investigate the behaviour of both isolated and organised DCCs in a 4-month case study over sub-Saharan Africa (May–August 2016). Using a novel cloud tracking algorithm, we detect and track growing convective cores and their associated anvil clouds using geostationary satellite observations from the Meteosat Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). Retrieved cloud properties and derived broadband radiative fluxes are provided by the Community Cloud retrieval for CLimate (CC4CL) algorithm. By collecting the cloud properties of the tracked DCCs, we produce a dataset of anvil cloud properties along their lifetimes. While the majority of DCCs tracked in this dataset are isolated, with only a single core, the overall coverage of anvil clouds is dominated by those of clustered, multi-core anvils due to their larger areas and lifetimes. We find that the anvil cloud CRE of our tracked DCCs has a bimodal distribution. The interaction between the lifecycles of DCCs and the diurnal cycle of insolation results in a wide range of the SW anvil CRE, while the LW component remains in a comparatively narrow range of values. The CRE of individual anvil clouds varies widely, with isolated DCCs tending to have large negative or positive CREs, while larger, organised systems tend to have a CRE closer to 0. Despite this, we find that the net anvil cloud CRE across all tracked DCCs is close to neutral (−0.94 ± 0.91 W m−2). Changes in the lifecycle of DCCs, such as shifts in the time of triggering, or the length of the dissipating phase, could have large impacts on the SW anvil CRE and lead to complex responses that are not considered by theories of LW anvil CRE feedbacks.

Observational Quantification of Tropical High Cloud Changes and Feedbacks

AbstractThe response of tropical high clouds to surface warming and their radiative feedbacks are uncertain. For example, it is uncertain whether their coverage will contract or expand in response to surface warming and whether such changes entail a stabilizing radiative feedback (iris feedback) or a neutral feedback. Global satellite observations with passive and active remote sensing capabilities over the last two decades can now be used to address such effects that were previously observationally limited. Using these observations, we show that the vertically averaged coverage exhibits no significant contraction or expansion. However, we find a reduction in coverage at the altitude where high clouds peak and are particularly radiatively‐relevant. This results in a negative longwave (LW) feedback and a positive shortwave (SW) feedback which cancel to yield a near‐zero high‐cloud amount feedback, providing observational evidence against an iris feedback. Next, we find that tropical high clouds have risen but have also warmed, leading to a positive, but small, high‐cloud altitude feedback dominated by the LW feedback. Finally, we find that high clouds have been thinning, leading to a near‐zero high‐cloud optical depth feedback from a cancellation between negative LW and positive SW feedbacks. Overall, high clouds lead the total tropical cloud feedback to be small due to the negative LW‐positive SW feedback cancellations.

An Analytic Model for the Clear-Sky Longwave Feedback

Abstract Climate models and observations robustly agree that Earth’s clear-sky longwave feedback has a value of about −2 W m−2 K−1, suggesting that this feedback can be estimated from first principles. In this study, we derive an analytic model for Earth’s clear-sky longwave feedback. Our approach uses a novel spectral decomposition that splits the feedback into four components: a surface Planck feedback and three atmospheric feedbacks from CO2, H2O, and the H2O continuum. We obtain analytic expressions for each of these terms, and the model can also be framed in terms of Simpson’s law and deviations therefrom. We validate the model by comparing it against line-by-line radiative transfer calculations across a wide range of climates. Additionally, the model qualitatively matches the spatial feedback maps of a comprehensive climate model. For present-day Earth, our analysis shows that the clear-sky longwave feedback is dominated by the surface in the global mean and in the dry subtropics; meanwhile, atmospheric feedbacks from CO2 and H2O become important in the inner tropics. Together, these results show that a spectral view of Earth’s clear-sky longwave feedback elucidates not only its global-mean magnitude, but also its spatial pattern and its state dependence across past and future climates. Significance Statement The climate feedback determines how much our planet warms due to changes in radiative forcing. For more than 50 years scientists have been predicting this feedback using complex numerical models. Except for cloud effects the numerical models largely agree, lending confidence to global warming predictions, but nobody has yet derived the feedback from simpler considerations. We show that Earth’s clear-sky longwave feedback can be estimated using only pen and paper. Our results confirm that numerical climate models get the right number for the right reasons, and allow us to explain regional and state variations of Earth’s climate feedback. These variations are difficult to understand solely from numerical models but are crucial for past and future climates.

How a Stable Greenhouse Effect on Earth Is Maintained Under Global Warming

AbstractIn a warming climate, greenhouse gases modulate thermal cooling to space from the surface and atmosphere, which is a fundamental feedback process that affects climate sensitivity. Recent studies have found that when relative humidity (RH) is constant with global warming, Earth's clear‐sky longwave feedback would be dominated by surface cooling to space. Using a millennium‐length coupled general circulation model and accurate line‐by‐line radiative transfer calculations, here we show that the atmospheric cooling to space accounts for 12%–50% of the feedback parameter from poles to tropics. A simple yet comprehensive model is proposed here for explaining the atmospheric feedback process. It is found that when RH is held constant, the atmospheric feedback stabilizes the climate because (a) water vapor spectral lines are weakened by the collision‐broadening effect between water vapor and radiatively inert background gases, and (b) thermal emissions from other greenhouse gases increases due to enhanced Planck emission which is proportional to the surface warming. Each mechanism is responsible for half of the atmospheric feedback. We further elucidate that in hotter climates, the atmospheric feedback is more stabilizing because of (a) greater tropospheric opacity, and (b) more dramatic changes in air temperature with respect to transmission, owing to the pseudo‐adiabatic expansion of air with surface warming. The sum of surface and atmospheric feedback, the clear‐sky longwave feedback is accurately predicted by the simple model from the climate base state. Our study provides a theoretical way for assessing Earth's clear‐sky longwave feedback, with important implications for Earth‐like planets.

Direct observation of Earth’s spectral long-wave feedback parameter

The spectral long-wave feedback parameter represents how Earth’s outgoing long-wave radiation adjusts to temperature changes and directly impacts Earth’s climate sensitivity. Most research so far has focused on the spectral integral of the feedback parameter. Spectrally resolving the feedback parameter permits inferring information about the vertical distribution of long-wave feedbacks, thus gaining a better understanding of the underlying processes. However, investigations of the spectral long-wave feedback parameter have so far been limited mostly to model studies. Here we show that it is possible to directly observe the global mean all-sky spectral long-wave feedback parameter using satellite observations of seasonal and interannual variability. We find that spectral bands subject to strong water-vapour absorption exhibit a substantial stabilizing net feedback. We demonstrate that part of this stabilizing feedback is caused by the change of relative humidity with warming, the radiative fingerprints of which can be directly observed. Therefore, our findings emphasize the importance of better understanding processes affecting the present distribution and future trends in relative humidity. This observational constraint on the spectral long-wave feedback parameter can be used to evaluate the representation of long-wave feedbacks in global climate models and to better constrain Earth’s climate sensitivity.

The Impact of a Land‐Sea Contrast on Convective Aggregation in Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium

AbstractConvective aggregation is an important atmospheric phenomenon which frequently occurs in idealized models in radiative‐convective equilibrium (RCE), where the effects of land, rotation, sea surface temperature gradients, and the diurnal cycle are often removed. This aggregation is often triggered and maintained by self‐generated radiatively driven circulations, for which longwave feedbacks are essential. Many questions remain over how important the driving processes of aggregation in idealized models are in the real atmosphere. We approach this question by adding a continentally sized, idealized tropical rainforest island into an RCE model to investigate how land‐sea contrasts impact convective aggregation and its mechanisms. We show that convection preferentially forms over the island persistently in our simulation. This is forced by a large‐scale, thermally driven circulation. First, a sea‐breeze circulation is triggered by the land‐sea thermal contrast, driven by surface sensible heating. This sea‐breeze circulation triggers convection which then generates longwave heating anomalies. Through mechanism denial tests we find that removing the longwave feedbacks reduces the large‐scale effects of aggregation but does not prevent aggregation from occurring, and thus we highlight there must be another process aiding the aggregation of convection. We also show, by varying the island size, that the aggregated convective cluster appears to have a maximum spatial extent of (10,000 km). These results highlight that the mechanisms of idealized aggregation remain relevant when land is included in the model, and therefore these mechanisms could help us understand convective organization in the real world.

Competing Effect of Radiative and Moisture Feedback in Convective Aggregation States in Two CRMs

AbstractThe radiative‐convective equilibrium (RCE) of two models exhibiting convective aggregation has been compared. The goal of the work, following the suggestion from the RCE Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP), is to identify key parameters controlling self‐aggregation in RCE for both models, to discuss the processes controlled by these parameters and to underline the models similarities and differences. The two cloud resolving models studied, the SAM (System for Atmospheric Modeling) and the ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System), present similar statistics concerning precipitation, but different warming, and drying of the atmosphere, within the spread of the RCEMIP values. On the other hand, the two models show different strengths of the moisture feedback, due to the different saturation of the sub‐cloud layer. A saturated sub‐cloud layer in ARPS (which was not artificially imposed in the numerical setup) allows the localization of convection in moist regions, by weakening the negative influence of cold pools. Such a mechanism leads to a lower degree of aggregation (based on three organization metrics) and a weaker effect of the organized state on the average domain statistics in ARPS. Stronger cold pools in SAM, instead, help the creation of shallow clouds in dry regions, increasing the longwave feedback responsible for their expansion; while delocalizing convection in moist regions and therefore opposing high‐cloud radiative‐feedback. Further experiments are needed to generalize such findings to other RCEMIP models, also investigating the role of microphysics and turbulence schemes in regulating such mechanisms.

Observed and CMIP6 Modeled Internal Variability Feedbacks and Their Relation to Forced Climate Feedbacks

AbstractInter model variations in global temperature response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide stem mostly from uncertainties in modeled climate feedbacks. To study potential reductions in model feedback uncertainties, we estimate observed feedbacks in response to internal variability using changes in Top Of the Atmosphere energy balance with temperature. We compare those observations with internal variability feedbacks from historical simulations of coupled and atmosphere‐only experiments from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to identify that simulated feedbacks exhibit biases in the tropics, subtropics, and the Southern Ocean. Furthermore, we find a relation between simulated longwave and shortwave internal variability feedbacks and those where atmospheric carbon dioxide is abruptly quadrupled. In the model range of internal variability feedbacks, the observations are more consistent with moderately negative longwave feedback, and weak shortwave feedback, but the observations can't be used to rule out any models or their long‐term feedback.

Model spread in tropical low cloud feedback tied to overturning circulation response to warming

Among models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), here we show that the magnitude of the tropical low cloud feedback, which contributes considerably to uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity, is intimately linked to tropical deep convection and its effects on the tropical atmospheric overturning circulation. First, a reduction in tropical ascent area and an increased frequency of heavy precipitation result in high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying, which increases longwave cooling and reduces subsidence weakening, favoring low cloud reduction (Radiation-Subsidence Pathway). Second, increased longwave cooling decreases tropospheric stability, which also reduces subsidence weakening and low cloudiness (Stability-Subsidence Pathway). In summary, greater high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying (negative longwave feedback) lead to a more positive cloud feedback among CMIP6 models by contributing to a greater reduction in low cloudiness (positive shortwave feedback). Varying strengths of the two pathways contribute considerably to the intermodel spread in climate sensitivity.

Diagnosing Instantaneous Forcing and Feedbacks of Downwelling Longwave Radiation at the Surface: A Simple Methodology and Its Application to CMIP5 Models

Abstract Climate models predict large increases in downwelling longwave radiation (DLR) at Earth’s surface as atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase. Here we introduce a novel methodology that allows these increases to be decomposed into direct radiative forcing due to enhanced CO2 and feedbacks due to subsequent changes in atmospheric properties. For the first time, we develop explicit analytic expressions for the radiative forcing and feedbacks, which are calculable from time-mean fields of near-surface air temperature, specific humidity, pressure, total column water vapor, and total cloud fraction. Our methodology captures 90%–98% of the variance in changes in clear-sky and all-sky DLR in five CMIP5 models, with a typical error of less than 10%. The longwave feedbacks are decomposed into contributions from changes in temperature, specific humidity, water vapor height scale, and cloud fraction. We show that changes in specific humidity and height scale are closely linked to changes in near-surface air temperature and therefore, in the global average, that 90% of the increase in all-sky DLR may be attributed to a feedback from increasing near-surface air temperature. Mean-state clouds play a major role in changes in DLR by masking the clear-sky longwave and enhancing the temperature feedback via increased blackbody radiation. The impact of changes in cloud cover (the cloud feedback) on the DLR is small (∼2%) in the global average, but significant in particular geographical regions.

When Will MISR Detect Rising High Clouds?

AbstractIt is predicted by both theory and models that high‐altitude clouds will occur higher in the atmosphere as a result of climate warming. This produces a positive longwave feedback and has a substantial impact on the Earth's response to warming. This effect is well established by theory, but is poorly constrained by observations, and there is large spread in the feedback strength between climate models. We use the NASA Multi‐angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) to examine changes in Cloud‐Top‐Height (CTH). MISR uses a stereo‐imaging technique to determine CTH. This approach is geometric in nature and insensitive to instrument calibration and therefore is well suited for trend analysis and studies of variability on long time scales. In this article we show that the current MISR record does have an increase in CTH for high‐altitude cloud over Southern Hemisphere (SH) oceans but not over Tropical or the Northern Hemisphere (NH) oceans. We use climate model simulations to estimate when MISR might be expected to detect trends in CTH, that include the NH. The analysis suggests that according to the models used in this study MISR should detect changes over the SH ocean earlier than the NH, and if the model predictions are correct should be capable of detecting a trend over the Tropics and NH very soon (3–10 years). This result highlights the potential value of a follow‐on mission to MISR, which no longer maintains a fixed equator crossing time and is unlikely to be making observations for another 10 years.

Forcing Convection to Aggregate Using Diabatic Heating Perturbations.

Tropical deep convection can aggregate into large clusters, which can have impacts on the local humidity and precipitation. Sea surface temperature (SST) gradients have been shown to organize convection, yet there has been little work done to investigate the impact of diabatic heating perturbations in the atmosphere on the aggregation of convection. Here we investigate how anomalous diabatic heating of the atmospheric column, through an idealized aerosol plume, affects the existence and mechanisms of convective aggregation in non‐rotating, global radiative‐convective equilibrium simulations. We show that the aerosol forcing has the ability to increase the degree of aggregation, especially at lower SSTs. Detailed investigation shows that the diabatic heating source incites a thermally driven circulation, forced by the shortwave perturbation. The increase in aggregation is caused in part by this circulation, and in part by the longwave heating anomalies occurring due to the surface convergence of moisture and convection. At higher SSTs, longwave feedbacks are crucial for the aggregation of convection, even with the shortwave heating perturbation. At lower SSTs, convection is able to aggregate with the shortwave perturbation in the absence of longwave feedbacks. These perturbations provide a link to studying the effects of absorbing aerosol plumes on convection, for example during the Indian monsoon season. We argue that, as there is aggregation for plumes with realistic aerosol absorption optical depths, this could be an analogue for real‐world organization in regions with high pollution.

Joint Dependence of Longwave Feedback on Surface Temperature and Relative Humidity

AbstractVarious studies have suggested that Earth's clear‐sky outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) varies linearly with surface temperature, with a longwave clear‐sky feedback that is, independent of surface temperature and relative humidity. However, this uniformity conflicts with the notion that humidity controls tropical stability (e.g., the “furnace” and “radiator fins” of Pierrehumbert (1995, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1995)052%3C1784:TRFATL%3E2.0.CO;2)). Here, we use a column model to explore the dependence of longwave clear‐sky feedback on both surface temperature and relative humidity. We find that a strong humidity dependence in the feedback emerges above 275 K, which stems from the closing of the O window, and that the furnace and radiator fins are consequences of this dependence. We then clarify that radiator fins are better characterized by tropical variations in clear‐sky feedback than OLR. Finally, we construct a simple model for estimating the all‐sky feedback and find that although clouds lower the magnitude of longwave feedback, the humidity‐dependence persists.

The Effect of an Equatorial Continent on the Tropical Rain Belt. Part 1: Annual Mean Changes in the ITCZ

AbstractThe Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP) ensemble includes slab-ocean aquaplanet controls and experiments with a highly idealized tropical continent: modified aquaplanet grid cells with increased evaporative resistance, increased albedo, reduced heat capacity, and no ocean heat transport (zero Q-flux). In the annual mean, an equatorial cold tongue develops west of the continent and induces dry anomalies and a split in the oceanic ITCZ. Ocean cooling is initiated by advection of cold, dry air from the winter portion of the continent; warm, humid anomalies in the summer portion are restricted to the continent by anomalous surface convergence. The surface energy budget suggests that ocean cooling persists and intensifies because of a positive feedback between a colder surface, drier and colder air, reduced downwelling long wave (LW) flux, and enhanced net surface LW cooling (LW feedback). A feedback between wind, evaporation, and SST (WES feedback) also contributes to the establishment and maintenance of the cold tongue. Simulations with a grayradiation model and simulations that diverge from protocol (with negligible winter cooling) confirm the importance of moist-radiative feedbacks and of rectification effects on the seasonal cycle. This mechanism coupling the continental and oceanic climate might be relevant to the double ITCZ bias. The key role of the LW feedback suggests that the study of interactions between monsoons and oceanic ITCZs requires full-physics models and a hierarchy of land models that considers evaporative processes alongside heat capacity as a defining characteristic of land.

H2O Windows and CO2 Radiator Fins: A Clear‐Sky Explanation for the Peak in Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

AbstractRecent explorations of the state‐dependence of Earth’s equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) have revealed a pronounced peak in ECS at a surface temperature of ∼310 K. This ECS peak has been observed in models spanning the model hierarchy, suggesting a robust physical source. Here, we propose an explanation for this ECS peak using a novel spectrally resolved decomposition of clear‐sky longwave feedbacks. We show that the interplay between spectral feedbacks in H2O‐dominated and CO2‐dominated portions of the longwave spectrum, along with moist‐adiabatic amplification of upper‐tropospheric warming, conspire to produce a minimum in the feedback parameter, and a corresponding peak in ECS, at a surface temperature of 310 K. Mechanism‐denial tests highlight three key ingredients for the ECS peak: (1) H2O continuum absorption to quickly close spectral windows at high surface temperature; (2) moist‐adiabatic tropospheric temperatures to enhance upper‐tropospheric warming; and (3) energetically consistent increases of CO2 with surface temperature.

Cold‐Season Arctic Amplification Driven by Arctic Ocean‐Mediated Seasonal Energy Transfer

AbstractThe Arctic warming response to greenhouse gas forcing is substantially greater than the rest of the globe. It has been suggested that this phenomenon, commonly referred to as Arctic amplification, and its peak in boreal fall and winter result primarily from the lapse‐rate feedback, which is associated with the vertical structure of tropospheric warming, rather than from the sea‐ice albedo feedback, which operates mainly in summer. However, future climate model projections show consistently that an overall reduction of sea‐ice in the Arctic region leads to a gradual weakening of Arctic amplification, thereby implying a key role for sea‐ice albedo feedback. To resolve this apparent contradiction, we conduct a comprehensive analysis using atmosphere/ocean reanalysis data sets and a variety of climate model simulations. We show that the Arctic Ocean acts as a heat capacitor, storing anomalous heat resulting from the sea‐ice loss during summer, which then gets released back into the atmosphere during fall and winter. Strong air‐sea heat fluxes in fall/winter in sea‐ice retreat regions in conjunction with a stably stratified lower troposphere lead to a surface‐intensified warming/moistening, augmenting longwave feedback processes to further enhance the warming. The cold‐season surface‐intensified warming/moistening is found to virtually disappear if ocean‐atmosphere‐sea ice interactions are suppressed, demonstrating the importance of ice insulation effect and ocean heat uptake/release. These results strongly suggest that the warm‐season ocean heat recharge and cold‐season heat discharge link and integrate the warm and cold season feedbacks, and thereby effectively explain the predominance of the Arctic amplification in fall and winter.

Changes in Local and Global Climate Feedbacks in the Absence of Interactive Clouds: Southern Ocean–Climate Interactions in Two Intermediate-Complexity Models

AbstractThe global-mean climate feedback quantifies how much the climate system will warm in response to a forcing such as increased CO2 concentration. Under a constant forcing, this feedback becomes less negative (increasing) over time in comprehensive climate models, which has been attributed to increases in cloud and lapse-rate feedbacks. However, out of eight Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) not featuring interactive clouds, two also simulate such a feedback increase: Bern3D-LPX and LOVECLIM. Using these two models, we investigate the causes of the global-mean feedback increase in the absence of cloud feedbacks. In both models, the increase is predominantly driven by processes in the Southern Ocean region. In LOVECLIM, the global-mean increase is mainly due to a local longwave feedback increase in that region, which can be attributed to lapse-rate changes. It is enhanced by the slow atmospheric warming above the Southern Ocean, which is delayed due to regional ocean heat uptake. In Bern3D-LPX, this delayed regional warming is the main driver of the global-mean feedback increase. It acts on a near-constant local feedback pattern mainly determined by the sea ice–albedo feedback. The global-mean feedback increase is limited by the availability of sea ice: faster Southern Ocean sea ice melting due to either stronger forcing or higher equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) reduces the increase of the global mean feedback in Bern3D-LPX. In the highest-ECS simulation with 4 × CO2 forcing, the feedback even becomes more negative (decreasing) over time. This reduced ice–albedo feedback due to sea ice depletion is a plausible mechanism for a decreasing feedback also in high-forcing simulations of other models.

Quantifying the energetic feedbacks in ENSO

Energetic feedbacks play important roles during the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here we conduct a thorough analysis of the radiative and non-radiative vertical fluxes and compare them to horizontal energy transport to provide a complete view of the energetics of ENSO. Our analyses affirm that cloud feedbacks are the most important radiative feedbacks, with cloud shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) feedbacks dominating at the surface and in the atmosphere respectively. Oceanic energy transport dominates the oceanic heat content change in the developing phase and has significant effects on the sea surface temperature (SST) about 6 months earlier than vertical fluxes. Atmospheric horizontal energy transport is also important, acting to quickly remove the surplus of energy provided by the convergence of vertical energy fluxes in the atmosphere. The differential diabatic heating between the Central Pacific and the Warm Pool, induced by the latent heat release as well as LW radiation, strengthens the anomalous circulation and reinforces the Bjerknes positive feedback to strengthen the SST anomaly. This work reveals that the differential heating is more strongly correlated with the SST anomaly in the Central Pacific than the local SW negative feedback of clouds and supports the idea that the overall atmospheric effect is likely a positive feedback that acts to strengthen ENSO.

Impacts of Oceanic and Atmospheric Heat Transports on Sea Ice Extent

AbstractClimate-model biases in ocean heat transport (OHT) have been proposed as a major contributor to uncertainties in projections of sea ice extent. To better understand the impact of OHT on sea ice extent and compare it to that of atmospheric heat transport (AHT), an idealized, zonally averaged energy balance model (EBM) is developed. This is distinguished from previous EBM work by coupling a diffusive mixed layer OHT and a prescribed OHT contribution, with an atmospheric EBM and a reduced-complexity sea ice model. The ice-edge latitude is roughly linearly related to the convergence of each heat transport component, with different sensitivities depending on whether the ice cover is perennial or seasonal. In both regimes, Bjerknes compensation (BC) occurs such that the response of AHT partially offsets the impact of changing OHT. As a result, the effective sensitivity of ice-edge retreat to increasing OHT is only ~2/3 of the actual sensitivity (i.e., eliminating the BC effect). In the perennial regime, the sensitivity of the ice edge to OHT is about twice that to AHT, while in the seasonal regime they are similar. The ratio of sensitivities is, to leading order, determined by atmospheric longwave feedback parameters in the perennial regime. Here, there is no parameter range in which the ice edge is more sensitive to AHT than OHT.