Long-term Trends Research Articles

Long-term trend and variability in surface temperatures over Emilia-Romagna from 1962 to 2022

AbstractScientific interest is increasingly drawn towards regional meteorological extremes, given their impacts on populations, infrastructure, and ecosystems. These extremes are shaped by complex interactions between internal climate variability and long-term trends. The aim of the present work is to evaluate changes in high-frequency variability and the influence of long-term trends on the frequency of occurrences of extremes, with a focus on surface temperatures over the period from 1962 to 2022 in Emilia-Romagna, a region of Northern Italy. Daily data of 2 m air temperatures averaged over the region are retrieved from ERACLITO, a high-resolution climate analysis. The distributions of daily temperature anomalies show a general broadening in 1992–2022 with respect to 1962–1991. This is true for maximum, minimum, and mean daily surface temperatures, especially during the summer and spring seasons. A significant warming trend of 0.37 °C/decade is detected in annual mean surface temperatures over the period considered. The study is completed with a comparison between the observed frequency of record-breaking annual temperature events, a hypothetical stationary climate distribution and a theoretical derivation that accounts for changes in trends and variability. During the last decade, the theoretical count of extreme events is 1.26, which yields a likelihood of 86% that this is owed to the trend rather than interannual variability. Idealized experiments demonstrate that the expected occurrences of record-breaking events in future decades depend on the warming rate rather than the warming level. Finally, an analysis performed at seasonal level shows that the majority (minority) of record events are occurring in the summer (spring) seasons.

Building Blocks for an Energy Transition

The present need for an energy transition in the wake of a global climate catastrophe led to the “EU green deal” which requires a transition of the energy system in all countries. This study aimis survey aims to identify strategies within such an energy transition based on global trend analyses and reports on available technologies for implementation. Based on a literature analysis of over 300 pieces (of feasibility studies and technology implementation reports with a focus on Central Europe) and a statistical analysis of the levels of “energy intensity” (E/GDP) covering three decades and all countries worldwide, the diagnosis is made that steady improvements in several dedicated technological focus areas can be made and were made and could still be increased in the future, as required by climate targets. Across several distinct fields of energy economy, the concrete options for such improvements are portrayed: Energy infrastructure, Smart grids, Transmission grid management, Electricity storage, Heat storage, and Industrial waste heat; and linked with the diagnosed long-term trends emerging from the “Global Change Data Base” GCDB, allowing for a sectorial analysis of the so-called energy intensity, which was not yet delivered until now as time series in the literature. The main findings show which economic sectors and clusters of technologies can be most appropriate to achieve climate targets while safeguarding social aspects of sustainability.

Freddy: breaking record for tropical cyclone precipitation?

Abstract Depending on the location on the Earth, the amount of precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) can reach 20% of the total yearly precipitation over land and up to 40% over some ocean regions. TC induced freshwater flooding has been suggested to be the largest threat to human lives due to TCs. Therefore, a reliable quantification of the precipitation amount associated with each past TC is important for a better definition of the TC fingerprint on the climate. The temporal and horizontal resolution of state-of-the-art observational datasets and atmospheric reanalysis gives the possibility to quantify precipitation associated with TCs globally following the observed TC tracks. In this work we compare the TC-related precipitation in various observational and reanalysis datasets. A particular focus is given to the record-breaking TC Freddy (Southern Indian Ocean, 2023). Here we show that the time-varying bias in TC associated precipitation, due to the positive trend in assimilated observations, makes it difficult to assess long-term trend investigation based on reanalysis. To this aim we need to build on state-of-the-art general circulation models, free to evolve under historical radiative forcing.

Adoption and use of MOOCs by undergraduates in selected universities in Ibadan, Nigeria

This research examines the utilisation of Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) by university undergraduates in Ibadan, Nigeria, for digital skill development. A survey of 378 undergraduates from the University of Ibadan, Lead City University, and Dominican University is conducted. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) simplifies UTAUT variables, while regression analysis explores factors influencing MOOC usage. Results show a substantial 77.8% adoption rate of MOOCs, indicating a growing interest in online learning. Performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, facilitating conditions, and internet accessibility significantly influence MOOC usage, though higher values for performance expectancy and facilitating conditions unexpectedly correspond to reduced utilisation. Demographic factors like age and gender do not significantly impact adoption. Limitations include the focus on Ibadan university students, potentially limiting generalizability, and the study’s cross-sectional nature, which may not capture long-term trends. Nonetheless, the research sheds light on digital education in Nigeria, emphasising MOOC utilisation among students. Rigorous statistical analyses and incorporating the UTAUT framework provide a robust foundation for interpretation. The results highlight prevalent MOOC usage and offer insights into adoption factors. Implications extend to educational institutions, instructors, digital literacy initiatives, and policy-making, stressing the importance of enhancing MOOC adoption for digital skill development among Nigerian university students.

On the characteristics and long-term trend of total cloud cover in Iran

On the characteristics and long-term trend of total cloud cover in Iran

Potential impact of blood cholesterol guidelines on statin treatment in the U.S. population using interrupted time series analysis

BackgroundThe 2013 ACC/AHA Guideline was a paradigm shift in lipid management and identified the four statin-benefit groups. Many have studied the guideline’s potential impact, but few have investigated its potential long-term impact on MACE. Furthermore, most studies also ignored the confounding effect from the earlier release of generic atorvastatin in Dec 2011.MethodsTo evaluate the potential (long-term) impact of the 2013 ACC/AHA Guideline release in Nov 2013 in the U.S., we investigated the association of the 2013 ACC/AHA Guideline with the trend changes in 5-Year MACE survival and three other statin-related outcomes (statin use, optimal statin use, and statin adherence) while controlling for generic atorvastatin availability using interrupted time series analysis, called the Chow’s test. Specifically, we conducted a retrospective study using U.S. nationwide de-identified claims and electronic health records from Optum Labs Database Warehouse (OLDW) to follow the trends of 5-Year MACE survival and statin-related outcomes among four statin-benefit groups that were identified in the 2013 ACC/AHA Guideline. Then, Chow’s test was used to discern trend changes between generic atorvastatin availability and guideline potential impact.Results197,021 patients were included (ASCVD: 19,060; High-LDL: 33,907; Diabetes: 138,159; High-ASCVD-Risk: 5,895). After the guideline release, the long-term trend (slope) of 5-Year MACE Survival for the Diabetes group improved significantly (P = 0.002). Optimal statin use for the ASCVD group also showed immediate improvement (intercept) and long-term positive changes (slope) after the release (P < 0.001). Statin uses did not have significant trend changes and statin adherence remained unchanged in all statin-benefit groups. Although no other statistically significant trend changes were found, overall positive trend change or no changes were observed after the 2013 ACC/AHA Guideline release.ConclusionsThe 2013 ACA/AHA Guideline release is associated with trend improvements in the long-term MACE Survival for Diabetes group and optimal statin use for ASCVD group. These significant associations might indicate a potential positive long-term impact of the 2013 ACA/AHA Guideline on better health outcomes for primary prevention groups and an immediate potential impact on statin prescribing behaviors in higher-at-risk groups. However, further investigation is required to confirm the causal effect of the 2013 ACA/AHA Guideline.

Impacts of locally managed periodic octopus fishery closures in Comoros and Madagascar: short-term benefits amidst long-term decline

Octopus fisheries face heightened demand driven by depleted fish stocks and escalating economic value, leading to overextraction of octopus populations and magnifying threats to coastal ecosystems and the livelihoods of fishers who depend on them. Implementation of management strategies such as periodic fishing closures can offer sanctuary for octopus, providing the necessary space and time for the growth and reproduction of this rapidly proliferating species. Despite evidence of positive management outcomes, the role of periodic closures in the long-term sustainability of octopus populations remains uncertain. Here, we examine trends in octopus landings over time and the effects of periodic closures along the Mozambique Channel from Comoros to Madagascar (12°-25°S). Long-term trends in octopus landings varied across three regions: generally stable over a 6-year period in Comoros, increasing over a 4-year period in the Barren Isles and declining over a 17-year period in Atsimo Andrefana, Madagascar. We observed a significant increase in mean catch per unit effort (CPUE, kilograms/fisher-day), and mean total catch (kilograms/day) following periodic closures across villages extracting octopus from closure areas. When evaluating each region independently, we observed this positive effect across Comoros and Atsimo Andrefana, Madagascar while trends in the Barren Isles showed no effect of octopus closures. We applied generalized linear mixed models to examine the influence of 10 covariates on mean daily total catch and CPUE within 7 days and 30 days post-closure. Baseline conditions (quantified by the pre-closure CPUE and daily total catch), closure duration and start month of closure had positive, statistically significant correlations with post-closure CPUE and daily total catch. Additionally, closure duration from 13 to 16 weeks and closure size of approximately 70 hectares were qualitatively associated with net gains in CPUE. Although periodic closures yield positive outcomes for octopus fisheries, the effects may be short-lived, as observed in Atsimo Andrefana, Madagascar, where catch declined over the long-term despite temporary improvements. Our findings underscore a need for a diverse portfolio of management strategies to restore and sustain populations over the long-term.

Trends in botanical exploration in Nigeria forecast over 1000 yet undescribed vascular plant species.

Taxonomists are primary actors of biodiversity assessment. At the same time, there is awareness by the taxonomic community at large that the field is going through a crisis, sometimes referred to as the 'taxonomic impediment'. Coupled with the ongoing biodiversity crisis, or 6th mass extinction, this biodiversity impedance puts at risk the target set in the Convention on Biological Diversity's (CBD) Global Biodiversity Framework vision 2050, which calls for urgent action to '… put biodiversity on a path to recovery by 2030 for the benefit of planet and people'. This risk is particularly pronounced in tropical African countries where taxonomic studies are done on an ad hoc basis. In this study, our aim is to investigate the historical trends in botanical exploration of vascular plants in Nigeria and forecast the near-term (50-year) description of presently unknown species, which we use to discuss scenarios of taxonomic effort that may be necessary for a comprehensive biodiversity assessment in the country. The study is based on a dataset from the World Checklist of Vascular Plants, containing all vascular plant species reported to occur in Nigeria. We fit nested Bayesian time series regressions to estimate the long-term trend in the rate of description of vascular plant species in Nigeria. From these models, we use an ensemble forecast to estimate the number of species descriptions by the year 2070, and then evaluate the description rates per taxonomist required to meet this estimate under different totals of active taxonomists. We find a striking difference in species description between Nigerian botanists and their foreign counterparts, with the former contributing relatively small numbers. Additionally, only a fraction of the authors involved in describing Nigeria's vascular plants are of indigenous origin. Our study reveals that the number of new species described annually exhibits a long-term increasing trend, with an average of 19.5 species described per year. However, after taking into account year-to-year variability and the number of taxonomists active in a given year, the long-term trend in species descriptions credibly declines over time. While the number of authors involved in describing species has generally increased over time, it has remained stable since the 1950s. Predictions for the number of new species descriptions by 2070 vary by model, with an ensemble prediction estimating 1140 species descriptions, but ranging from 1004 to 2239 between individual models. The study estimates that current levels of taxonomic activity should lead to a 20 % increase in known species of vascular plants in Nigeria over the next 50 years, which is still probably an underestimate of the true, unknown species richness. Urgent action is needed to address the taxonomic impediment so that local taxonomic studies in tropical African countries can achieve the CBD's Global Biodiversity Framework vision 2050. Here, we outline some key pathways to achieving this goal.

Global carbon balance of the forest: satellite-based L-VOD results over the last decade

Monitoring forest carbon (C) stocks is essential to better assess their role in the global carbon balance, and to better model and predict long-term trends and inter-annual variability in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. On a national scale, national forest inventories (NFIs) can provide estimates of forest carbon stocks, but these estimates are only available in certain countries, are limited by time lags due to periodic revisits, and cannot provide spatially continuous mapping of forests. In this context, remote sensing offers many advantages for monitoring above-ground biomass (AGB) on a global scale with good spatial (50–100 m) and temporal (annual) resolutions. Remote sensing has been used for several decades to monitor vegetation. However, traditional methods of monitoring AGB using optical or microwave sensors are affected by saturation effects for moderately or densely vegetated canopies, limiting their performance. Low-frequency passive microwave remote sensing is less affected by these saturation effects: saturation only occurs at AGB levels of around 400 t/ha at L-band (frequency of around 1.4 GHz). Despite its coarse spatial resolution of the order of 25 km × 25 km, this method based on the L-VOD (vegetation optical depth at L-band) index has recently established itself as an essential approach for monitoring annual variations in forest AGB on a continental scale. Thus, L-VOD has been applied to forest monitoring in many continents and biomes: in the tropics (especially in the Amazon and Congo basins), in boreal regions (Siberia, Canada), in Europe, China, Australia, etc. However, no reference study has yet been published to analyze L-VOD in detail in terms of capabilities, validation and results. This paper fills this gap by presenting the physical principles of L-VOD calculation, analyzing the performance of L-VOD for monitoring AGB and reviewing the main applications of L-VOD for tracking the carbon balance of global vegetation over the last decade (2010–2019).

The long-term changing patterns of suicide mortality in China from 1987 to 2020: continuing urban-rural disparity

BackgroundOver the past three decades, China has experienced significant changes in urban-rural, gender, and age-specific suicide mortality patterns. This study aimed to investigate the long-term trends in suicide mortality in China from 1987 to 2020.MethodsSuicide mortality data were obtained from China’s National Health Commission. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to examine changes in trends and age-period-cohort modeling to estimate age, period, and cohort effects on suicide mortality from 1987 to 2020. Net drift, local drift, longitudinal age curves, and period relative risks were also calculated.ResultsCrude and age-standardized suicide mortality in China showed continuing downward trends from 1987 to 2020, with a more pronounced decrease in rural areas (net drift = -7.07%, p<0.01) compared to urban areas (net drift = -3.41%, p<0.01). The decline curve of urban areas could be divided into three substages. Period and cohort effects were more prominent in rural areas. Suicide risk was highest among individuals aged 20–24 and gradually increased after age 60. Females, particularly those of childbearing age, had higher suicide risk than males, with a reversal observed after age 50. This gender reversal showed distinct patterns in urban and rural areas, with a widening gap in urban areas and a relatively stable gap in rural areas.ConclusionsSuicide mortality in China has consistently declined over the past three decades. However, disparities in age, gender, and urban-rural settings persist, with new patterns emerging. Targeted suicide prevention programs are urgently needed for high-risk groups, including females of childbearing age and the elderly, and to address the slower decrease and reversing urban-rural gender trends.

Moving towards an ecological management of overabundant ungulates: insights from wildlife-vehicle collisions and hunting bag data

Increasing abundance of large ungulates is raising human-wildlife impacts and the effectiveness of recreational hunting to reduce their population growth is increasingly questioned. We report on long-term trends (> 15 years) in wildlife-vehicle collisions (WVC) and hunting bags, and on associations between the annual growth rate of WVC and that of hunting bags for three ungulates – the wild boar, the red deer, and the roe deer – and the grey wolf in northwest Spain to evaluate the regulating capacity of recreational hunting at large spatial scale. Wildlife-vehicle collisions increased by 332% in 16 years and 91% of all traffic accidents were caused by collisions with these three ungulates. All ungulate species showed significant positive trends in WVC and hunting bags, but we did not observe a negative association between annual growth rate of hunting bags and that of WVC except for the wild boar. Results suggest that recreational hunting was unable to reduce ungulate population growth at the regional scale. There was no upward trend of vehicle collisions with wolves over the study period, possibly reflecting stable wolf populations. Natural mortality due to predation could be promoted through the protection of apex predators, but the lethal management of apex predators, often based on sociopolitical pressures rather than damage levels, can conflict with the strategy for mitigating ungulate impacts. Ungulate management needs to be reconsidered from an ecological perspective that integrates human management measures, including recreational hunting, based on the population dynamics and the recovery of predator–prey interactions by favoring the expansion of apex predators.

An Experiment in Governmental Futures Thinking: long-term insights briefings

New Zealand’s Public Service Act 2020 requires departmental chief executives to give a long-term insights briefing (LTIB) to their respective ministers at least once every three years. The LTIBs must provide ‘information about medium- and long-term trends, risks, and opportunities that affect or may affect New Zealand’, along with ‘information and impartial analysis, including policy options’ to address the matters raised. The first suite of LTIBs were prepared during 2022–23. This article assesses the first round of LTIBs, giving particular attention to how they identified future risks and opportunities and the extent to which they adopted robust foresight techniques. Based on this analysis, we suggest how the process for preparing future LTIBs might be improved.

The long-term trend in utilization of traditional Chinese medicine and associated factors among older people in Taiwan.

Both the size of the older population and the use of complementary and alternative medicine are increasing worldwide. This study evaluated the long-term trend in utilization of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) and associated factors among older people in Taiwan. Using the database of population-based interview surveys, we evaluated the one-month prevalence of TCM use among 13,945 older people aged over 65 years from 2001-2017. The sociodemographic status and medical comorbidities of older people who did and did not use TCM were compared by calculating adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in the multiple logistic regressions. The one-month prevalence of TCM use increased from 5.5% in 2001 to 9.1% in 2017 among older people in Taiwan. Overall, 7.3% of older people had used TCM within the previous month. People with a history of heart disease (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.24-2.12), use of folk therapy (OR 3.16, 95% CI 2.00-4.99), and purchase of non-prescribed Chinese herbal medicine (OR 2.08, 95% CI 1.48-2.91) were more likely to use TCM than the comparison group. However, age ≥80 years (OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.31-0.72) and previous hospitalization (OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.41-0.85) were associated with the reduced use of TCM. From 2001-2017, the use of TCM increased in the older population in Taiwan. The use of folk medicine and purchase of non-prescribed Chinese herbal medicine were significant predictors for the use of TCM.

Emerging Trends in Information-Seeking Behavior for Alpha-Gal Syndrome: Infodemiology Study Using Time Series and Content Analysis.

Alpha-gal syndrome is an emerging allergy characterized by an immune reaction to the carbohydrate molecule alpha-gal found in red meat. This unique food allergy is likely triggered by a tick bite. Cases of the allergy are on the rise, but prevalence estimates do not currently exist. Furthermore, varying symptoms and limited awareness of the allergy among health care providers contribute to delayed diagnosis, leading individuals to seek out their own information and potentially self-diagnose. The study aimed to (1) describe the volume and patterns of information-seeking related to alpha-gal, (2) explore correlations between alpha-gal and lone star ticks, and (3) identify specific areas of interest that individuals are searching for in relation to alpha-gal. Google Trends Supercharged-Glimpse, a new extension of Google Trends, provides estimates of the absolute volume of searches and related search queries. This extension was used to assess trends in searches for alpha-gal and lone star ticks (lone star tick, alpha gal, and meat allergy, as well as food allergy for comparison) in the United States. Time series analyses were used to examine search volume trends over time, and Spearman correlation matrices and choropleth maps were used to explore geographic and temporal correlations between alpha-gal and lone star tick searches. Content analysis was performed on related search queries to identify themes and subcategories that are of interest to information seekers. Time series analysis revealed a rapidly increasing trend in search volumes for alpha-gal beginning in 2015. After adjusting for long-term trends, seasonal trends, and media coverage, from 2015 to 2022, the predicted adjusted average annual percent change in search volume for alpha-gal was 33.78%. The estimated overall change in average search volume was 627%. In comparison, the average annual percent change was 9.23% for lone star tick, 7.34% for meat allergy, and 2.45% for food allergy during this time. Geographic analysis showed strong significant correlations between alpha-gal and lone star tick searches especially in recent years (ρ=0.80; P<.001), with primary overlap and highest search rates found in the southeastern region of the United States. Content analysis identified 10 themes of primary interest: diet, diagnosis or testing, treatment, medications or contraindications of medications, symptoms, tick related, specific sources of information and locations, general education information, alternative words for alpha-gal, and unrelated or other. The study provides insights into the changing information-seeking patterns for alpha-gal, indicating growing awareness and interest. Alpha-gal search volume is increasing at a rapid rate. Understanding specific questions and concerns can help health care providers and public health educators to tailor communication strategies. The Google Trends Supercharged-Glimpse tool offers enhanced features for analyzing information-seeking behavior and can be valuable for infodemiology research. Further research is needed to explore the evolving prevalence and impact of alpha-gal syndrome.

Assessing the utility of shellfish sanitation monitoring data for long-term estuarine water quality analysis

Regular testing of coastal waters for fecal coliform bacteria by shellfish sanitation programs could provide data to fill large gaps in existing coastal water quality monitoring, but research is needed to understand the opportunities and limitations of using these data for inference of long-term trends. In this study, we analyzed spatiotemporal trends from multidecadal fecal coliform concentration observations collected by a shellfish sanitation program, and assessed the feasibility of using these monitoring data to infer long-term water quality dynamics. We evaluated trends in fecal coliform concentrations for a 20-year period (1999–2021) using data collected from spatially fixed sampling sites (n = 466) in North Carolina (USA). Findings indicated that shellfish sanitation data can be used for long-term water quality inference under relatively stationary management conditions, and that salinity trends can be used to investigate management-driven bias in fecal coliform observations collected in a particular area.

Deciphering multi-temporal scale dynamics in the concentration, sources and processes of near surface ozone over different climatic regions of India.

This study aims to investigate the factors influencing seasonal and long-term (2003-2021) changes in the near surface ozone (850 hpa) concentrations over different climatic sub-regions of India. Detailed comparison of daily (2019-2021) near surface ozone values of ERA-5 and CAAQMS (Continuous Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Stations) ground-based measurements revealed that ERA-5 is temporally in phase with CAAQMS measurements falling indifferent climatic sub-regions of India. ERA-5 near surface ozone shows statistically significant long-term (2003-2021) positive trends [2-4 percent per decade (ppd)] over most of the climatic sub-regions, over Indo-Gangetic Planes (IGPs), Southern and Central India trends are particularly strong. Trends were also estimated for each season separately, which were largely positive (2-6 ppd) over Central and Southern India in the Autumn and Winter seasons. Extensive climatological analysis reveals that the reversal of winds in the Indian monsoonal system plays a vital role in such trend patterns across the Indian subcontinent. South-westerly winds from June through September presumably bring ozone deficit air of marine origin, thus causing a dilution effect while the North-easterly winds during late Autumn and early Winters plausibly bring ozone-rich air from the stratospheric-tropospheric efflux dominated Himalayan region. It allows near surface ozone enhancement over Central and Southern India. Seasonal Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed that precursor gases (CH4 and NO2) and climatic variables especially specific humidity (SH) are the primary drivers of near surface ozone variability in the Winter season, while in Spring, climatic variables like boundary layer height (BLH), temperature (T) and SH have a significant role. Principal component regression (PCR) reveals a long-term increase in near surface ozone levels mostly dominated by precursor concentration over IGPs and Southern sub-regions. Whereas, BLH, T and SH significantly explain near surface ozone trends over North-eastern and Coastal India.

Long term trend of particulate matter in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and its association with introduction of environmental policies

Since the 1970s, air quality has improved at the national level in the United States, coincident with the introduction of the Clean Air Act and other air pollution regulations at a greater frequency. We present a case study from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania—the sixth most populous city in the United States. The main objectives of this study are to analyze long-term trends of particulate matter (PM) from 1986 to 2021 in Philadelphia and to examine their association with the introduction of environmental policies relevant to air pollution at the federal, state, and local levels. We find that annual PM10 concentration decreased by 47% from 1986 to 2021 and annual PM2.5 concentration decreased by 31% from 2000 to 2021 in Philadelphia. We find that carbonaceous content (both elemental and organic carbon) has declined over the same period of 2000 to 2021, demonstrating its contribution to overall PM2.5 reduction in Philadelphia. In Philadelphia, high PM concentrations occur in the summer months; however, seasonal patterns have changed for PM10 in the last decade (2011–2020). Overall, PM reductions occurred over all seasons, with the greatest reductions occurring for PM2.5 during summer months and for PM10 during winter months. The Clean Air Act contributed to the creation of many regulatory policies that address unhealthy levels of PM. The introduction of various environmental policies that target the transportation sector has contributed to the reduction of PM levels in Philadelphia. Air quality would continue being improved by implementing such environmental policies specific to the emissions sectors.

Delivering on a promise: futureproofing automated insect monitoring methods.

Due to rapid technological innovations, the automated monitoring of insect assemblages comes within reach. However, this continuous innovation endangers the methodological continuity needed for calculating reliable biodiversity trends in the future. Maintaining methodological continuity over prolonged periods of time is not trivial, since technology improves, reference libraries grow and both the hard- and software used now may no longer be available in the future. Moreover, because data on many species are collected at the same time, there will be no simple way of calibrating the outputs of old and new devices. To ensure that reliable long-term biodiversity trends can be calculated using the collected data, I make four recommendations: (1) Construct devices to last for decades, and have a five-year overlap period when devices are replaced. (2) Construct new devices to resemble the old ones, especially when some kind of attractant (e.g. light) is used. Keep extremely detailed metadata on collection, detection and identification methods, including attractants, to enable this. (3) Store the raw data (sounds, images, DNA extracts, radar/lidar detections) for future reprocessing with updated classification systems. (4) Enable forward and backward compatibility of the processed data, for example by in-silico data 'degradation' to match the older data quality. This article is part of the theme issue 'Towards a toolkit for global insect biodiversity monitoring'.

Association between exposure to ambient air pollution, meteorological factors and atopic dermatitis consultations in Singapore—a stratified nationwide time-series analysis

Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic inflammatory skin disease affecting approximately 20% of children globally. While studies have been conducted elsewhere, air pollution and weather variability is not well studied in the tropics. This time-series study examines the association between air pollution and meteorological factors with the incidence of outpatient visits for AD obtained from the National Skin Centre (NSC) in Singapore. The total number of 1,440,844 consultation visits from the NSC from 2009 to 2019 was analysed. Using the distributed lag non-linear model and assuming a negative binomial distribution, the short-term temporal association between outpatient visits for AD and air quality and meteorological variability on a weekly time-scale were examined, while adjusting for long-term trends, seasonality and autocorrelation. The analysis was also stratified by gender and age to assess potential effect modification. The risk of AD consultation visits was 14% lower (RR10th percentile: 0.86, 95% CI 0.78–0.96) at the 10th percentile (11.9 µg/m3) of PM2.5 and 10% higher (RR90th percentile: 1.10, 95% CI 1.01–1.19) at the 90th percentile (24.4 µg/m3) compared to the median value (16.1 µg/m3). Similar results were observed for PM10 with lower risk at the 10th percentile and higher risk at the 90th percentile (RR10th percentile: 0.86, 95% CI 0.78–0.95, RR90th percentile: 1.10, 95% CI 1.01–1.19). For rainfall for values above the median, the risk of consultation visits was higher up to 7.4 mm in the PM2.5 model (RR74th percentile: 1.07, 95% CI 1.00–1.14) and up to 9 mm in the PM10 model (RR80th percentile: 1.12, 95% CI 1.00–1.25). This study found a close association between outpatient visits for AD with ambient particulate matter concentrations and rainfall. Seasonal variations in particulate matter and rainfall may be used to alert healthcare providers on the anticipated rise in AD cases and to time preventive measures to reduce the associated health burden.

Estimating potentially preventable ambient PM2.5-attributable adult deaths by improving air quality in Nepal

Air pollution is an important global environmental health risk factor, with many Asian countries experiencing alarming levels in recent decades. Nepal, a South Asian country, has been facing severe degradation in air quality in recent years, where data are scarce on the health impact of air pollution, especially at sub-national levels. In this study, we investigated ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5)-attributable adult (≥25 years) premature mortality in Nepal, analyzed its long-term trend, and estimated potentially preventable adult mortality under different improved air quality scenarios defined using the World Health Organization's (WHO) interim targets (IT) and the air quality goal (AQG). Leveraging an open-source high-resolution PM2.5 dataset and an age-specific population dataset, we employed the Global Exposure Mortality Model to estimate mean and 95% confidence intervals of PM2.5-attributable adult mortality using Monte Carlo simulations. We estimated the country-level NCD + LRI (non-communicable diseases and lower respiratory infections) adult deaths attributable to PM2.5 exposure as 48881 (95% CI: 37175−61470), and the PM2.5-attributable NCD + LRI adult mortality rate as 267 (95% CI: 203−335) per 100000 in 2019. The adult mortality burden consistently increased during 2000–2019. Moreover, improving air quality to the WHO ITs and AQG could prevent an estimated 9690 (95% CI: 7698−11812) to 39419 (95% CI: 30311−49277) premature adult deaths across the country in 2019. Our findings suggest that the adult mortality burden due to air pollution in Nepal is substantial, which offers an opportunity to prevent a considerable number of premature adult deaths by mitigating air pollution in the country.