Climate variability impact on groundwater quality in Small Island Developing States: Mauritius Island as a case study

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of climate variability on groundwater quality in Mauritius. This is achieved by analyzing the physical and chemical water quality of the five main aquifers over eleven years. Temporal variations in water quality properties were compared to the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), Dry Spells, the Standardised Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and other climate variables to gain insights into how precipitation controls groundwater quality. The results reveal that the SPI and the SPEI correlate minimally with water quality indicators. Sulphate is the only water quality indicator that showed correlations above 0.4 in aquifers 2 and 3 against a 12-month SPI. Sulphate, alongside chloride, showed what is termed ”notable correlation,” a concept defined in this paper to accommodate correlations that fall above 0.3 when assessed against global climate modes ENSO and AAO, respectively. These results signify that sulphate is the most sensitive water quality indicator to water quantity changes, notwithstanding the modesty of the correlations. Heavy storms occurring during cyclones impact groundwater quality with respect to conductivity, TDS, salinity, and nitrate, although this could not be statistically tested given the lack of water quality indicators collected on the days surrounding the storm. Therefore, the conclusion is made based on one storm event. The study revealed that individual correlations between climate indices and water quality variables are present but weak. However, the long-term trend in water quality is visible.