Long-term Policy Research Articles

Review of the studies regarding the evolution of China's long-term care insurance framework

Community care and long-term care concerns have attracted substantial attention from both the government and society as China's aging process accelerates. an important tool for managing elder impairments, reducing family stress, and advancing social justice in China is long-term care insurance. The modern academic community has had a major impact, on the creation of a system of multi-tiered care services the structure of long-term care insurance, and the invention and adaption of global techniques. However, the research is not without its shortcomings, such as the absence of a systematic theoretical framework, insufficient implementation studies in rural regions, a poor appraisal of the long-term impacts of policies, and a lack of interdisciplinary collaboration. Future research should concentrate on important areas, such as a thorough examination of the execution effectiveness of long-term care insurance policies and an evaluation of the adaptability of current rural elderly care service models, in order to promote the long-term advancement and improvement of the long-term care insurance system.

Assessing the impact of drought and upstream dam construction on agriculture in arid and semi-arid regions: a case study of the Middle Draa Valley, Morocco.

This study assesses the impact of drought and upstream dam construction on agriculture in arid and semi-arid regions with the Middle Draa Valley (MDV) case study in Morocco. This valley, nestled in the arid landscapes of Morocco, has a rich tapestry of history, culture, and natural beauty. However, its oases are facing a water shortage crisis due to the effects of climate change and human pressure on water resources for irrigation. We analyzed the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to monitor vegetation dynamics in this valley. First, the SPEI shows a declining trend, indicating increasing water scarcity, which has led to the overexploitation of groundwater and significant vegetation degradation. Second, the NDVI remained relatively stable until 2015 but has since declined, signaling ecosystem deterioration. Third, the correlation between SPEI and NDVI in the oases suggests that vegetation depends not only on precipitation and evapotranspiration but also on other factors such as insufficient releases from upstream dams and the use of groundwater for irrigation. This is confirmed by analyses of the correlation between dam releases and NDVI, as well as data on groundwater table levels. This situation poses an urgent warning for decision-makers to consider which water management measures and agricultural practices to adopt. The most practical solution to avoid further degradation of the oases in the short term is to conserve the remaining groundwater resources exclusively for irrigation date palms and to develop strict long-term water policies.

Assessment of residential renewable energy investment under dynamic market environment: Aspect from household benefits.

The adoption of residential renewable energy is pivotal for achieving the 'Net Zero' goal, yet financial assessments of household investments in this area remain complex due to dynamic market conditions. This study introduces a novel closed-form financial valuation framework for residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, explicitly addressing the uncertainties of electricity market price fluctuations (market risk) and energy policy changes (policy risk) using Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). A case study in France demonstrates the framework's application, revealing that the discount rate is the most influential factor in solar PV valuation, followed by system lifespan and policy-driven Feed-in Tariff (FiT) rates. Sensitivity analyses further highlight how these variables interact to influence investment outcomes under various market scenarios. Key findings include (1) the identification of critical thresholds for solar PV investments, ensuring financial viability even under fluctuating conditions; (2) the validation of GBM as an effective tool for capturing long-term market and policy dynamics; and (3) actionable policy recommendations emphasizing market efficiency, policy stability, and end-of-life management. These insights contribute to advancing both household investment decision-making and policy design, addressing a significant gap in understanding the economic dynamics of residential renewable energy adoption. By bridging theoretical valuation models with empirical evidence, this research provides practical guidance for promoting decentralized renewable energy systems globally.

Long-term care insurance and implementation for older people in China: a systematic review of textual evidence protocol.

The objective of this systematic review is to synthesize and compare policies and implementation strategies on long-term care insurance for older people in China. Current information about China's long-term care insurance from a textual perspective is limited. Due to late inception and fragmented management, textual evidence on this topic will offer a unique perspective on the structure and implementation strategies of long-term care insurance policies in China. The population of this review will be adults aged 60years or over. The phenomena of interest will be long-term care insurance policies and implementation strategies in China. Published sources and gray literature in English and Chinese since 2016 will be included. Exclusions will apply to hospitalized individuals as well as those under 60years of age, who are permanently disabled due to illness or disability. The proposed systematic review will be conducted in line with the JBI methodology for systematic reviews of textual evidence. Databases to be searched will include PubMed, Embase, (Ovid), CINAHL (EBSCOhost), and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). For gray literature, we will conduct an advanced Google search as well as searching ProQuest Dissertations & Theses Global. Additionally, we will search the websites of local governments in pilot cities. The JBI critical appraisal checklist for textual evidence will be used to evaluate the quality of textual sources. All identified sources will be retrieved and assessed in detail by 2 independent reviewers. Data extraction and synthesis will be conducted using the JBI System for the Unified Management, Assessment and Review of Information. A meta-aggregative approach will be employed to synthesize data and conclusions, which will be graded using ConQual. A recommendation will be issued as a Good Practice Statement. PROSPERO CRD42023414967.

Inflation Rate Determinants in Saudi Arabia: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach

Inflation across the globe after the COVID-19 pandemic has shown some persistence and followed an upward trend well above inflation targets and beyond normal historical movements. The Saudi inflation rate followed similar patterns of global trends, surging significantly and persisting well above the pre-pandemic levels. This paper examines determinants of inflation in Saudi Arabia, considering internal and external factors, and evaluates whether inflation responds to common global shocks or is largely influenced by macroeconomic variabilities within the economy. Findings and analyses in this paper are based on both conventional Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) and non-linear ARDL (NARDL) models using quarterly level data to capture short-run dynamics and long-run relationships between inflation rate and examined macroeconomics variables, namely oil prices real effective exchange rate, money supply, and government spending. Reported results reveal an asymmetrical relationship between oil price fluctuations and inflation rate volatilities in Saudi Arabia. Inclines in oil prices lead to higher inflation, while the decline in oil prices does not alleviate inflationary pressures, and these results are consistent both in the short-run and the long run. The influence of pass-through real effective exchange rate is also evident in transmitting global shocks to local consumer prices in the long run, where a depreciation in real effective exchange rate results in a higher cost of imported goods, exerting additional stresses on local inflation. For factors within the economy, findings indicate a substantial long-term inflationary effect of money supply on the inflation rate in Saudi Arabia, where a one percent increase in the money supply led to more than one-third increase in inflation in the long run. On the other hand, while the influence of government spending on inflation was statistically significant, its impact is less pronounced in explaining the inflation rate’s variations. The analysis reveals that the evaluated variables exert a stronger influence on inflation in the long run. This underscores the critical need for policymakers to consider the cumulative effects of these determinants when formulating effective long-term inflation stabilization policies.

From Farms to Forests: An Exploration of Afforestation Efforts in Poland Under the Rural Development Programme (2007–2020)

Forests are important in mitigating climate change and addressing biodiversity loss. In Poland, where forest cover has steadily increased since World War II, afforestation of agricultural land has emerged as a key strategy supported by both EU and national policies. This study evaluates the implementation of Poland’s afforestation programs under the Rural Development Programme (RDP) for the periods of 2007–2013 and 2014–2020 using data provided by the Agency for Restructuring and Modernisation of Agriculture (ARMA) and focusing on the financial incentives offered to private landowners and regional variations in their uptake. Results show that afforestation under the RDP aligned with the EU climate neutrality goals, with a total of 37,721 hectares afforested and PLN 243.5 million handed as financial support, predominantly (81%) over the first studied period. The largest afforestation efforts were observed in the Mazowieckie and Warmińsko-Mazurskie voivodeships, with Warszawa, Poland’s capital, achieving the highest municipal afforestation area across both periods. Financial considerations influenced farmer participation, but rising land prices and historical land use patterns were contributing factors. Urban afforestation and increasing demand for woody biomass further highlight the benefits of afforestation. However, conifer-dominated stands, prevalent on low-quality land, can present challenges to ecosystem stability under future climate scenarios, necessitating diversification towards deciduous species. Additionally, low uptake during the 2014–2020 period showcases the need for improved incentives to bolster participation. Still, afforestation presents significant economic and environmental opportunities, advancing long-term policy objectives while addressing critical challenges in climate.

A historical overview of policy perspectives towards informal care in Taiwan (1996-2023).

This paper examines the evolution of policy perspectives towards informal care in Taiwan, focusing on the development of carer support services. It traces the transition from self-funded services by the Taiwan Association of Family Caregivers (a nonprofit organisation), to services funded by the government. Taiwan's approach highlights the considerable changes brought about by the implementation of the Long-Term Care Services Act which elevated the legal status of carers. Other reforms include the establishment of community-based carer support centres, the introduction of a carer referral mechanisms, and the decentralisation of services to local governments. Carer policies in Taiwan have increasingly embraced the perspective of carers as co-clients, not only recognising their crucial role in the care ecosystem but also raising the profile of informal care in public policy. However, ensuring sustainable funding from the central government, which is vital for the continuation and expansion of carer support, presents a considerable challenge for future policy considerations. The Taiwanese experiences of integrating carers into the long-term care policy context and of decentralisation of carer support services to local governments, serve as a reference for other countries developing carer policies.

The impact of long-term prescription policy on primary care utilisation and costs among hypertensive patients in China: a six-year longitudinal study.

China has recently implemented a long-term prescription policy as a component of the family doctor system in order to strengthen chronic disease management. In this study, we evaluated the net policy impact on health care utilisation and costs at community health centres (CHCs) among hypertensive patients. The study population included 164 857 hypertensive patients from a provincial capital city in Eastern China, with an average age of 69.93 years in 2014. We collected their health care utilisation and costs from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2019 from the medical insurance claims database. The long-term prescription policy, implemented in 2018, allows patients registered with family doctors to obtain up to three-month prescriptions. We applied the multi-stage difference-in-differences model to examine the policy's impact, comparing health care utilisation and costs between those eligible and for the long-term prescription policy and those who are not. The long-term prescription policy significantly reduced hypertensive patients' annual outpatient visits by 2.47 at CHCs and 0.18 at pharmacies, as well as prolonged the interval of prescriptions by 3.10 days at CHCs. It decreased the annual drug costs at pharmacies by 47%, but there was no significant effect on the annual outpatient costs at CHCs. Meanwhile, we did not observe the impact of the long-term prescription policy on patients' annual number of hospitalisations. The long-term prescription policy mainly affected patients' health care utilisation at CHCs and did facilitate patients with chronic diseases to refill drugs conveniently. The policy impact on patient health outcomes needs to be further observed and more attention should be given to the factors that may influence family doctors' behaviour in delivering the long-term prescription service.

Assessing Basel Capital Regulations: Exploring the Risk and Efficiency Relationship in Emerging Economies

This research investigates the relationship between Basel capital regulations, bank risk, and bank efficiency in the context of Pakistani and Indian commercial banks. This study examines the period from 2009 to 2022 and specifically analyses the impact of Basel III capital requirements on risk and efficiency. Quantitative methods are employed, utilising data from central bank websites and the BankScope database to construct a comprehensive sample of commercial banks in Pakistan and India. The system-generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation technique addresses potential endogeneity issues in the regression models. The findings shed light on the effectiveness of these regulations and provide insights for policymakers and regulators in both countries. The results indicate that Basel capital regulations have generally increased banks’ risk-taking behaviour in Pakistan and India. However, they have not improved the overall efficiency of the banking sector in either country. Bank efficiency declined during the study period, highlighting the limited effectiveness of Basel capital regulations in enhancing efficiency. Furthermore, the impact of these regulations on risk and efficiency varies between the two countries. In Pakistan, the regulations do not significantly affect bank efficiency, while in India, they decrease efficiency. Additionally, Basel III capital regulations do not significantly impact the risk taken by banks in either country. This study concludes by emphasising the need for alternative mechanisms or policies to improve the banking industry’s efficiency, as Basel capital regulations alone have proven ineffective. The findings offer valuable insights for central banks and regulators in assessing the relationship between capital regulations, risk, and efficiency and implementing appropriate measures to enhance the performance of the banking sector. This study recommends the following key points: the adoption of tailored regulatory approaches to address specific challenges, achieving an optimal balance between risk management and operational efficiency, enhancing the effectiveness of management roles, considering the influence of macroeconomic factors, and evaluating the implications of long-term policy development for sustainable progress. The present study adds to the prevalent literature on the impact of capital regulations on bank risk and efficiency nexus. This study focuses on Pakistan and India, which are two important developing nations. Moreover, another important contribution of this study lies in the effect of Basel III capital regulation on bank risk, as these capital regulations are different from other Basel capital requirements.

The Impact of Policy Quantification on Rural Spatial Development in Suburbs: A Case Study of Dalian’s Main Urban Area

Under China’s rural revitalization strategy, peri-urban villages function as pivotal nodes in urban–rural integration. Existing policy research predominantly emphasizes macro-level land and industrial policies, neglecting their spatial development effects on peri-urban villages. This study addresses the gap by constructing a policy quantification framework and employing a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to analyze policy impacts on rural spatial development, focusing on peri-urban villages in Dalian’s main districts from 2004 to 2023. The results indicate a fluctuating yet upward trend in policy effectiveness. Initial supply-side policies prioritized infrastructure development, whereas subsequent demand-side policies significantly enhanced living conditions, underscoring the necessity of adaptive policy strategies. The rural revitalization construction index exhibited notable spatial heterogeneity, evolving from clusters near industrial zones to expansion into areas like the Jinzhou District, aligned with urban growth patterns. Granger causality analysis confirmed the strong influence of policy interventions, with the first-order lag VAR model offering reliable predictions of short- and long-term policy effects. Initially, the construction index was entirely self-driven (100%), but its reliance on self-influence waned to 69.8% over time, highlighting a transition toward greater policy-driven development.

A novel DEA-Tobit-SD assessment framework and application of provincial-level carbon emission embracing regional heterogeneity

Formulating tailored emission reduction policies for each Chinese province is crucial due to regional differences in carbon emission evolution patterns. This paper proposes a novel and comprehensive research framework that integrates data envelopment analysis (DEA), Tobit regression, and system dynamics (SD) model to analyze the influence factors and evaluate provincial emission reduction policies while considering regional differences. The DEA method assesses each province's development resource allocation and carbon emission efficiency. Based on the DEA results, each provinces’ key emission influencing factors can be derived combining with Tobit regression and sensitivity analysis of SD. Policies are then selected based on these factors to gauge their effectiveness. SD method is used to simulate carbon emissions under different policy scenarios in the future. The analysis results present obvious differences in resource allocation and regional characteristics among provinces. Qinghai's emission reduction potential has been preliminarily explored as an example. Energy structure, industry structure, energy intensity, forest coverage, and R&D input intensity are its main influencing factors for carbon emission. The forest carbon sink plays a significant role. The emission reduction of the integrated scenario is not a linear sum of all other scenarios. To ensure the completion of the neutralization goal, further adjustments to the long-term policy and extra measures are needed.

The impact of deep response to ursodeoxycholic acid in primary biliary cholangitis - should it be the new clinical standard?

This review explores the emerging concept of "deep response" in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), defined by the normalization of biochemical markers, particularly alkaline phosphatase and bilirubin. It examines its potential as a new standard for disease management and its implications for long-term patient outcomes, health policies, and clinical decision-making. Recent studies suggest that achieving a deep response significantly improves long-term outcomes in some patients with PBC. In particular, a significant complication-free survival gain was observed among patients who at baseline were at high risk for disease progression. However, limitations in data and the variability in patient populations pose challenges for universal adoption of this standard. Deep biochemical response represents a promising new standard for optimizing PBC management, offering measurable goals for clinicians and potentially improved long-term outcomes for patients. However, further research is necessary to better define the appropriate biochemical thresholds, understand the risks of overprescribing, and identify patient subgroups that are most likely to benefit from this strategy. A balanced, patient-centered approach incorporating deep response into comprehensive management could improve care for high-risk PBC patients.

Socio-economic impacts of waste management policy in Slovakia: Comparative analysis among municipalities

The paper investigates fiscal aspects of waste management policy and waste management at the communal level in the Slovak Republic. For this purpose, cross-sectional data on the municipal level averaged over five years (2017 - 2022) were used. The results reveal a significant fiscal gap between municipal waste management revenues and expenses, which are indirectly transferred to the consumers (households), and will worsen their financial situation and the related public welfare. The econometric modelling comprising quantitative and qualitative variables (ANCOVA) model was used to determine the factors significantly impacting waste management expenses. The results suggest that introducing the policy of waste prevention through a higher share of separated waste is associated with a significant increase in waste management expenses. This study contributes to the understanding of the impacts of financial incentives on waste management at the municipal level, revealing an unintended externality that points to a consequence leading to an increase in the financial burden on consumers in the form of additional costs. It is a counter-productive aspect of the policy, which should not cause a decline in public welfare and discourage consumers from waste separation. The results also suggest that current policies to promote separate collection may also inadvertently increase costs for municipalities, affecting their fiscal planning and efficiency, particularly at the environmental level. Further research is recommended in this area to gather more evidence and provide recommendations on the future implementation of waste management policy at the municipal level. For a more successful closure of the investigated issues in waste management, it is necessary to examine and minimize the revealed externalities, thereby ensuring a long-term sustainable waste management policy.

A roadmap toward promoting and improving brain health in Europe and closing the awareness and funding gap.

The global burden of neurological diseases exceeds 43.1%, imposing a significant burden on patients, caregivers and society. This paper presents a roadmap to reduce this burden and improve brain health (BH) in Europe. The roadmap is based on the European Academy of Neurology's (EAN) five-pillar BH strategy: advancing a global BH approach (P1), supporting policymaking (P2), fostering research (P3), promoting education (P4), and raising awareness of prevention and treatment (P5). It reviews current efforts, collaborations and future directions aligned with the WHO Intersectoral Global Action Plan (iGAP) for Neurological Disorders and suggests future initiatives and call for action. P1: Support WHO-iGAP through defined action points, international collaborations, in particular, the WHO BH Unit, and the EAN Brain Health Mission. P2: Collaborate with 48 national neurological societies to promote National Brain Plans (NBPs), addressing local needs, and improving access to care. P3: Advocate for more research funding; identify determinants of BH; develop preventive measures. P4: Provide educational opportunities for neurologists, public education programs, and advocacy training, including tools to educate the public. P5: Spearhead global awareness campaigns, organize public educational activities, and train BH advocates to contribute toward sustainable and long-term public health campaigns and policy engagement. The paper highlights the importance of a unified approach, integrating international collaborations and local initiatives, to improve BH outcomes based on the WHO-iGAP, and support sustainable development goals, in particular SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being and SDG 4: Quality Education.

The long-term and short-term effects of interest rate volatility on corporate bankruptcy risk: An industry and supply chain perspective.

While higher interest rates increase the cost of credit financing for businesses, this study finds that the direct impact of this traditional credit transmission mechanism on corporate bankruptcy risk is limited. Instead, our research reveals that changes in corporate behavior induced by rising debt financing costs are the root cause of bankruptcy risk. In the short term, an increase in interest rates drives businesses to substitute supply chain financing for credit financing in pursuit of profit maximization. This mismatch of short-term debt and long-term investments undermines the sustainability of the supply chain, ultimately reducing financial security-sacrificing safety for profitability. In the long term, higher interest rates exacerbate the overcapacity problem in industries, increasing the unsustainability of the production and sales balance. Using data from China's construction industry, this study empirically tests these findings and, based on the main conclusions, provides policy suggestions regarding the long- and short-term effects of monetary policy on the sustainable development of China's construction industry: (1) focus on short-term interest rate risks and be vigilant against commercial credit bubbles; (2) long-term monetary policy should prioritize industrial structure optimization.

Environmental impacts of restructuring the EU's natural gas supply and consumption: Learnings from the 2022 energy crisis.

In 2022, the European Union put forward the REPowerEU plan in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, aiming at enhancing short-term energy security by diversifying imports and reducing natural gas demand while accelerating the deployment of renewable alternatives in the long term. Here, we quantify the life cycle environmental impacts of both REPowerEU's short-term measures, including the controversial extended coal-fired power plant operations, and how the first year of the crisis was managed in practice. We find that the policy measures' impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would be negligible, although they could have detrimental effects on other environmental categories. In practice, GHG emissions dropped by 8.6% driven by energy savings, yet other environmental burdens worsened, primarily due to coal and oil use. Our results could support the development and analysis of long-term policies to enhance energy security via natural gas demand reduction while considering multiple environmental sustainability indicators to avoid collateral damage.

Impact of Global Warming on Fruits and Dairy Production

This review examines the intricate relationships between climate change and food safety, focusing on how they influence the dairy and fruit sectors. The analysis covers a broad variety of variables, including variations in temperature, precipitation and implications for phenological phases, chilling needs, and food quality in general. A thorough analysis is conducted, focusing on how climate change impacts production of apples, pears, peaches, and apricots. Variations in temperature and modified precipitation patterns have been demonstrated to impact different phases of fruit development, posing difficulties such as frost damage, modifications to chilling needs, and adjustments to phenological phases. The study also looks at how climate change affects dairy farms, such as how animals are more vulnerable to heat stress. Higher temperatures have been discovered to have a significant influence on animal health in general, milk production, and reproductive rates. The analysis goes worldwide, emphasizing possible drops in milk output and the wider consequences for food security. The interdependence of food safety and climate change is emphasized throughout the conversation, highlighting the importance of all encompassing policies and mitigating actions. The conclusion emphasizes the importance of developing solid, long-term policies to preserve food security in the face of climate change.

THEORETICAL MODEL OF OPTIMAL CONTROL OF BEHAVIORAL CULTUROGENESIS FOR ACHIEVING UN SDGs / ТЕОРЕТИЧЕСКАЯ МОДЕЛЬ ОПТИМАЛЬНОГО УПРАВЛЕНИЯ КУЛЬТУРОГЕНЕЗОМ ПОВЕДЕНИЯ ДЛЯ ДОСТИЖЕНИЯ ЦУР ООН

This paper presents a theoretical model for optimal control of behavioral culture genesis in achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The model is based on a system of differential equations describing the dynamics of cultural capital, behavioral patterns, and value orientations. The methodology includes analysis of cultural transformation cases from developed countries with diverse cultural characteristics, as well as a detailed synthesis of modern optimal control theory and key concepts of cultural economics. A mathematical apparatus is proposed for quantitative assessment of cultural pollution and its comprehensive impact on SDG achievement. Effective methods for empirical verification of the model and mechanisms for cross-cultural adaptation have been developed. The obtained research results can be successfully applied in forming long-term cultural policy and systematic evaluation of its effectiveness in the broad context of sustainable development.

The Asymmetric Relationship Between Oil Price Fluctuation on Exchange Rate Variation: Empirical Evidence from Malaysia and Thailand

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of oil price fluctuations on exchange rate variations, particularly for Malaysia and Thailand. The study utilizes monthly observation data from 1994 to 2021 and uses structural breaks, cointegration relationships, and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) estimates. Both countries had distinct long- and short-term relationships, but there was also an asymmetric relationship between oil prices and multilateral exchange rates revealed by the study. The asymmetric and non-asymmetric causality relationship for both countries indicate a unidirectional non-asymmetric causality between the oil price and the exchange rate variation. The empirical findings will be of great assistance to policymakers in evaluating global oil price fluctuations as a crucial indicator for monitoring and stabilizing currencies as a long-term monetary policy strategy.

Vapor pressure deficit and temperature variability drive future changes to carbon sink stability in China’s terrestrial ecosystems

The stability of future carbon sinks is crucial for accurately predicting the global carbon cycle. However, the future dynamics and stability of carbon sinks remain largely unknown, especially in China, a significant global carbon sink region. Here, we examined the dynamics and stability of carbon sinks in China’s terrestrial ecosystems from 2015 to 2,100 under two CMIP6 scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585), using XGBoost and SHAP models to quantify the impact of climatic drivers on carbon sink stability. China’s future terrestrial ecosystems will act as a “carbon sink” (0.27–0.33 PgC/yr), with an initial increase that levels off over time. Although the carbon sink capacity increases, its stability does not consistently improve. Specifically, the stability of carbon sinks in future China’s terrestrial ecosystems transitions from strengthening to weakening, primarily occurring in areas with higher carbon sink capacity. Further analysis revealed that atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and temperature (Tas) are the two primary factors influencing carbon sink stability, with significant differences in their impacts across different scenarios. Under the SSP245 scenario, variations in VPD (VPD.CV) regulate water availability through stomatal conductance, making it the key driver of changes in carbon sink stability. In contrast, under the SSP585 scenario, although VPD.CV still plays an important role, temperature variability (Tas.CV) becomes the dominant factor, with more frequent extreme climate events exacerbating carbon cycle instability. The study highlights the differences in driving factors of carbon sink stability under different scenarios and stresses the importance of considering these differences, along with the scale and stability of carbon sinks, when developing long-term carbon management policies to effectively support carbon neutrality goals.