Long-term Population Persistence Research Articles

Long-term population persistence of flightless weevils (Eurhoptus pyriformis) across old- and second-growth forests patches in southern Appalachia

BackgroundSouthern Appalachian forests are dominated by second-growth vegetation following decades of intensive forestry and agricultural use, although some old-growth patches remain. While it’s been shown that second-growth areas may exhibit comparable species richness to old-growth in the area, the extent to which populations of arthropods in second-growth areas have persisted vs. recolonized from other areas remains unexamined. The implications for conservation of both classes of forest are significant. Here we analyze population diversity and relatedness across five old-growth and five second-growth populations of flightless, leaf litter-inhabiting beetles in the genus Eurhoptus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Cryptorhynchinae). Our main goal is asking whether second-growth areas show diminished diversity and/or signals of recolonization from old-growth sources.ResultsPopulation genetic and phylogenetic analyses do not reveal any consistent differences in diversity between the old-growth and second-growth populations examined. Some second-growth populations retain substantial genetic diversity, while some old-growth populations appear relatively depauperate. There is no phylogenetic indication that second-growth populations have recolonized from old-growth source populations.ConclusionsMost populations contain substantial and unique genetic diversity indicating long-term persistence in the majority of sites. The results support substantial resilience in second-growth populations, though the geographic scale of sampling may have hindered detection of recolonization patterns. Broad scale phylogeographic patterns reveal a deep break across the French Broad River basin, as has been reported in several other taxa of limited dispersal abilities. In Eurhoptus this break dates to ~ 2–6 Ma ago, on the older end of the range of previously estimated dates.

The Case of the 30-Year Persistence of the Single Known Population of Panax quinquefolius L. (Araliaceae) in Louisiana

Abstract There were a total of 12 documented Panax quinquefolius (American Ginseng) in the only known population in Louisiana in 1986. Our reassessment of the population in 2016 found 16 plants. We suggest that the long-term persistence of this tiny American Ginseng population indicates that simple matrix-population models may be overestimating quasi-extinction numbers and minimum viable populations, perhaps as a result of failing to sufficiently consider influences of environmental conditions. We further suggest that this, the southernmost documented population of the species in the US, has endured beyond expectation but remains at acute risk of extirpation and that any population-specific genes are at risk of loss if no intervention is made to protect the population.

The Eastern Tropical Pacific coral population connectivity and the role of the Eastern Pacific Barrier

Long-distance dispersal is believed to strongly influence coral reef population dynamics across the Tropical Pacific. However, the spatial scale and strength at which populations are potentially connected by dispersal remains uncertain. To determine the patterns in connectivity between the Eastern (ETP) and Central Tropical Pacific (CTP) ecoregions, we used a biophysical model incorporating ocean currents and larval biology to quantify the seascape-wide dispersal potential among all population. We quantified the likelihood and determined the oceanographic conditions that enable the dispersal of coral larvae across the Eastern Pacific Barrier (EP-Barrier) and identified the main connectivity pathways and their conservation value for dominant reef-building corals. Overall, we found that coral assemblages within the CTP and ETP are weakly connected through dispersal. Although the EP-Barrier isolates the ETP from the CTP ecoregion, we found evidence that the EP-Barrier may be breached, in both directions, by rare dispersal events. These rare events could explain the evolutionary genetic similarity among populations of pocilloporids in the ecoregions. Moreover, the ETP may function as a stronger source rather than a destination, providing potential recruits to CTP populations. We also show evidence for a connectivity loop in the ETP, which may positively influence long-term population persistence in the region. Coral conservation and management communities should consider eight-key stepping stone ecoregions when developing strategies to preserve the long-distance connectivity potential across the ETP and CTP.

Experimental harvest and regrowth in Appalachian black cohosh (Actaea racemosa, Ranunculaceae) populations: Implications for sustainable management of a medicinal forest herb

A broad range of understory forest herbs are harvested for medicinal properties, particularly from species-rich forests of the central and southern Appalachian Mountains. Many species have been collected and used for centuries with little understanding of harvest impacts, some with resulting population declines. Species valued for belowground components, such as Actaea racemosa L. (black cohosh), appear particularly vulnerable to harvest impacts. Between 2005 and 2011, we conducted experimental harvests on natural A. racemosa populations in central Appalachian oak (Quercus L.) forests. Responses were examined during 3 yr of moderate (33% plant removal) and intensive (66% removal) harvest treatments and up to 3 yr of regrowth, to simulate local harvesting practices and assess recovery potential. After 2 yr of moderate harvests, aboveground growth remained similar to controls. However, after 3 yr of moderate harvests or 2 yr of intensive harvests, significant declines were evident. After our third harvest year, leaf area and stem density were 65–80% lower in moderate harvest plots and 80–90% lower in intensive harvest plots, compared with controls. These differences persisted for at least 2 yr after harvests treatments ended. Curve-fitting models suggested recovery of leaf area and mean plant height to preharvest levels after 4–7 yr without further plant removal. In contrast, stem density showed little to no increase during our study period, and model projections suggested declines, rather than recovery. Thus, although individual growth metrics suggested that limited harvesting may be sustainable, results for stem density indicated little new recruitment into the population and concern for long-term population persistence. Forest herbs harvested for belowground components create particular challenges for sustainable management. Our concerns for A. racemosa are applicable to other economically important forest perennials in our region and worldwide and emphasize the need for continued study and monitoring to maintain viable populations and associated natural systems.

Long-term genetic consequences of mammal reintroductions into an Australian conservation reserve

Reintroduction programs aim to restore self-sustaining populations of threatened species to their historic range. However, demographic restoration may not reflect genetic restoration, which is necessary for the long-term persistence of populations. Four threatened Australian mammals, the greater stick-nest rat (Leporillus conditor), greater bilby (Macrotis lagotis), burrowing bettong (Bettongia lesueur) and western barred bandicoot (Perameles bougainville), were reintroduced at Arid Recovery Reserve in northern South Australia over the last 18years. These reintroductions have been deemed successful based on population growth and persistence, however the genetic consequences of the reintroductions are not known. We generated large single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) datasets for each species currently at Arid Recovery and compared them to samples collected from founders. We found that average genetic diversity in all populations at the Arid Recovery Reserve are close to, or exceeding, the levels measured in the founders. Increased genetic diversity in two species was achieved by admixing slightly diverged and inbred source populations. Our results suggest that genetic diversity in translocated populations can be improved or maintained over relatively long time frames, even in small conservation reserves, and highlight the power of admixture as a tool for conservation management.

Long-term insitu persistence of biodiversity in tropical sky islands revealed by landscape genomics.

Tropical mountains are areas of high species richness and endemism. Two historical phenomena may have contributed to this: (i) fragmentation and isolation of habitats may have promoted the genetic differentiation of populations and increased the possibility of allopatric divergence and speciation and (ii) the mountain areas may have allowed long-term population persistence during global climate fluctuations. These two phenomena have been studied using either species occurrence data or estimating species divergence times. However, only few studies have used intraspecific genetic data to analyse the mechanisms by which endemism may emerge at the microevolutionary scale. Here, we use landscape analysis of genomic SNP data sampled from two high-elevation plant species from an archipelago of tropical sky islands (the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt) to test for population genetic differentiation, synchronous demographic changes and habitat persistence. We show that genetic differentiation can be explained by the degree of glacial habitat connectivity among mountains and that mountains have facilitated the persistence of populations throughout glacial/interglacial cycles. Our results support the ongoing role of tropical mountains as cradles for biodiversity by uncovering cryptic differentiation and limits to gene flow.

The Gut Microbiota Facilitates Drifts in the Genetic Diversity and Infectivity of Bacterial Viruses

The intestinal microbiota and human health are intimately linked, but interactions between bacteria and bacteriophages in the context of the mammalian intestine remain largely unexplored. We used comparative population genomics to study a tripartite network consisting of a virulent bacteriophage, its bacterial host, and a phage-insensitive bacterial strain both invitro and within the murine gut. The bacteriophage adapted to infect the insensitive strain when the three partners co-existed in the gut of conventional mice, but not in dixenic mice or in planktonic cultures. The molecular changes associated with modifications in the bacteriophage host spectrum included single amino acid substitutions and an unusual homologous intragenomic recombination event within the genome of the bacteriophage. An intermediate bacterial host isolated from the murine microbiota mediated bacteriophage adaptation. Our data indicate that by offering access to new hosts, the microbiota shifts the genetic diversity of bacteriophages, thereby promoting long-term persistence of bacteriophage populations.

Fire frequency effects on soil and pollinators: what shapes sexual plant reproduction?

Increased fire frequency can significantly erode both soil properties and plant–pollinator interactions affecting plant reproductive success but they have seldom been assessed simultaneously. Here, we evaluate soil properties, pollinator assemblage and the reproductive success of two native Fabaceae herbs, Desmodium uncinatum and Rhynchosia edulis, growing in unburned, low and high fire frequency sites of Chaco Serrano across two consecutive years. Desmodium uncinatum is outcrossing with a high dependence on pollinators, whereas R. edulis is autogamous and completely independent of pollinators. We found that soil water content, nitrates and electrical conductivity significantly decreased in low and high fire frequency sites. Pollinator richness and composition visiting each plant species was similar across all fire frequency scenarios. However, fruit set of the exogamous D. uncinatum was strongly reduced in frequently burned sites, whereas fruit set of the autogamous R. edulis showed no significant changes. In both species, the probability of setting fruits was positively related to soil quality across fire frequency scenarios, implying that decreased reproduction was mainly driven by limitation of abiotic resources shaped by increased fire frequency. Because the pollinator-dependent D. uncinatum has a higher reproductive cost, reduced soil quality induced by fire frequency had stronger effects on its reproduction. Chronic reduction of sexual reproduction in frequently burned sites with depleted soils will limit population recruitment with negative consequences on long-term plant population persistence.

Current and future suitability of wintering grounds for a long-distance migratory raptor

Conservation of migratory species faces the challenge of understanding the ecological requirements of individuals living in two geographically separated regions. In some cases, the entire population of widely distributed species congregates at relatively small wintering areas and hence, these areas become a priority for the species’ conservation. Satellite telemetry allows fine tracking of animal movements and distribution in those less known, often remote areas. Through integrating satellite and GPS data from five separated populations comprising most of the breeding range, we created a wide habitat suitability model for the Eleonora’s falcon on its wintering grounds in Madagascar. On this basis, we further investigated, for the first time, the impact of climate change on the future suitability of the species’ wintering areas. Eleonora’s falcons are mainly distributed in the north and along the east of Madagascar, exhibiting strong site fidelity over years. The current species’ distribution pattern is associated with climatic factors, which are likely related to food availability. The extent of suitable areas for Eleonora’s falcon is expected to increase in the future. The integration of habitat use information and climatic projections may provide insights on the consequences of global environmental changes for the long-term persistence of migratory species populations.

Roadside verges as habitats for endangered lizard-orchids (Himantoglossum spp.): Ecological traps or refuges?

Alterations in traditional land use practices have led to severe declines in the area of semi-natural grasslands, thereby seriously threatening plant and animal species dependent on these habitats. Small anthropogenic managed habitats, like roadsides can act as refuges and might play an important role in conserving these species. Colonization of roadside verges by endangered lizard orchids (Himantoglossum spp.) has long been known, but few studies have systematically explored the suitability of roadside habitats for these orchids and the impact of roads on them. In this paper we present results of targeted surveys of three lizard orchid taxa on roadsides from eight European countries. During these surveys we searched for lizard orchids inhabiting roadside verges and recorded their distance from road, aspects of the roadside environment, as well as vegetative and reproductive characteristics of individual plants. We found large numbers of lizard orchids on roadside verges. Distance from roads was not uniformly distributed: orchids occurred more closely to roads than expected by chance. This suggests that regular management of roadsides (e.g. mowing) might enhance colonization and survival of lizard orchids. On the other hand, we also found that close proximity to roads negatively affects reproductive success, suggesting that the immediate vicinity of roads might act as an ecological trap (i.e. favorable in terms of colonization and survival but unfavorable in terms of reproduction). Nonetheless, the fact that significant and viable populations are maintained at roadsides suggests that traditionally managed roadside verges may allow long-term persistence of lizard orchid populations and may serve as refuges in a landscape context.

Do plant populations on distinct inselbergs talk to each other? A case study of genetic connectivity of a bromeliad species in an Ocbil landscape.

Here, we explore the historical and contemporaneous patterns of connectivity among Encholirium horridum populations located on granitic inselbergs in an Ocbil landscape within the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, using both nuclear and chloroplast microsatellite markers. Beyond to assess the E. horridum population genetic structure, we built species distribution models across four periods (current conditions, mid‐Holocene, Last Glacial Maximum [LGM], and Last Interglacial) and inferred putative dispersal corridors using a least‐cost path analysis to elucidate biogeographic patterns. Overall, high and significant genetic divergence was estimated among populations for both nuclear and plastid DNA (ΦST (n) = 0.463 and ΦST (plastid) = 0.961, respectively, p < .001). For nuclear genome, almost total absence of genetic admixture among populations and very low migration rates were evident, corroborating with the very low estimates of immigration and emigration rates observed among E. horridum populations. Based on the cpDNA results, putative dispersal routes in Sugar Loaf Land across cycles of climatic fluctuations in the Quaternary period revealed that the populations’ connectivity changed little during those events. Genetic analyses highlighted the low genetic connectivity and long‐term persistence of populations, and the founder effect and genetic drift seemed to have been very important processes that shaped the current diversity and genetic structure observed in both genomes. The genetic singularity of each population clearly shows the need for in situ conservation of all of them.

Revisiting the provenance delineation of a widespread shrub, Frangula alnus—the role of spatial, temporal and environmental patterns

Including population genetic aspects into the selection of planting material within the framework of conservation and restoration measures is of vital importance for the long-term persistence of populations. This is especially true facing climate change since genetic diversity and the spread of potentially beneficial alleles are important for the adaptability of populations. Therefore, knowledge about genetic variability within and between populations is a critical aspect when determining provenance regions. In our study, we investigated the population genetic structure of a widespread, insect-pollinated and mainly bird-dispersed shrub species, Frangula alnus, on the basis of seven microsatellites and two chloroplast DNA markers throughout Germany. The aim was to determine the spatial, temporal and ecological processes genetically structuring populations to critically revise existing provenance regions. Therefore, we conducted analyses on different spatial scales (country-wide, regional and local) using the two different marker sets in addition to environmental variables. We detected distinct patterns on all spatial scales which indicated influences of historic recolonization processes, regional differences of seed dispersal across the landscape, as well as small-scale spatial genetic structures attributable to local dispersal processes. No relation of underlying environmental gradients such as temperature or precipitation and genetic patterns was found. We conclude that different aspects of historic and more recent gene flow shape population genetic structures and that a thorough analysis on a variety of spatial, temporal and environmental scales is necessary to appropriately select planting material for conservation and restoration measures. Correspondingly, management advice regarding provenance delineations will be provided.

Interactions between demography and environmental effects are important determinants of population dynamics.

Climate change will affect the population dynamics of many species, yet the consequences for the long-term persistence of populations are poorly understood. A major reason for this is that density-dependent feedback effects caused by fluctuations in population size are considered independent of stochastic variation in the environment. We show that an interplay between winter temperature and population density can influence the persistence of a small passerine population under global warming. Although warmer winters favor an increased mean population size, density-dependent feedback can cause the local population to be less buffered against occasional poor environmental conditions (cold winters). This shows that it is essential to go beyond the population size and explore climate effects on the full dynamics to elaborate targeted management actions.

Long-term site fidelity and residency patterns of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the Tramandaí Estuary, southern Brazil

The occurrence of common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Tramandaí Estuary, southern Brazil, is described based on a photo-identification study conducted between January 2009 and February 2010. A total of 128 survey days were conducted with an average observation effort of 2.6 hours per day (SD = 0.6). Approximately 2050 photographs were taken from a shore land location at the mouth of the estuary. A total of nine dolphins were identified, including three calves. The dolphins were observed during all seasons, with a greater frequency during fall (79.3% of the days) and winter (60.7% of the days). The summer presented the lowest occurrence (2.4% of the days) of dolphins. During the entire study period, the maximum number of individuals sighted in any given day ranged from one to seven (average = 2.8 dolphins; SD = 1.35; n = 51). The residence indices, based on the resighting frequency of dolphins during the study period, ranged from 0.02 to 0.24 (average = 0.13; SD = 0.08; n = 9). However, most of the animals (67%) were resighted in over five months during a year and could be classified as residents. Longterm site fidelity was detected by resightings of four dolphins for over 18 years. These data combined reinforce the importance of the Tramandaí Estuary for the common bottlenose dolphins in the region and highlight the need for local conservation efforts to guarantee the long-term persistence of these coastal populations.

The times they are a changin': Multi-year surveys reveal exotics replace native carnivores at a Madagascar rainforest site

Surveys across multiple seasons or years are necessary to evaluate the effects of dynamic processes on long-term persistence of wildlife populations, such as effects of exotic species on native species populations. Unfortunately, multi-year surveys are rare, particularly for rainforest carnivore populations, and managers often rely on single-season/year, ‘snapshot’ surveys that produce static estimates of population parameters. Here we provide results using single-species, multi-year occupancy modeling from a six-year survey (2008–2013) of a rainforest carnivore community at a 15km2 area study site within the newly established Makira Natural Park, Madagascar. We demonstrate a precipitous decline in the native carnivore community with four of the six native carnivores (falanouc Eupleres goudotii, ring-tailed vontsira Galidia elegans, broad-striped vontsira Galidictis fasciata, and brown-tailed vontsira Salanoia concolor) decreasing by at least 60% over this six-year period. In addition, we observed two exotic carnivores (small Indian civet Viverricula indica and feral cat Felis species) colonize this study site with Felis species increasing in occupancy from 0 to 0.68 by the final year. Further, we demonstrate how variables associated with human encroachment (i.e. distance to forest edge and nearest village) are most important for explaining these trends in native carnivore extirpation and exotic carnivore colonization. These findings provide additional evidence on the threat posed to native carnivore populations by the expansion of exotic carnivores worldwide. We highlight the striking increase in extirpation, and the factors influencing such changes, for native carnivores. In this manuscript, we point to the limited number of multi-year surveys to evaluate dynamic processes on long-term persistence of native wildlife populations, as well as the lack of exotic carnivore control programs in threatened ecosystems in many developing nations as factors limiting our ability to effectively conserve biodiversity across the globe.

Genetic diversity and divergence in the endangered Cape Verde warbler Acrocephalus brevipennis

Genetic factors play an important role in the long-term persistence of populations and species, and conservation strategies should take such factors into account. We use neutral molecular markers to assess diversity and divergence between the three remaining island populations of a little-studied endemic passerine, the Cape Verde warbler Acrocephalus brevipennis. Variation at both microsatellite loci and the cytochrome b gene reveal low diversity within the species overall, but considerable divergence among the populations on Santiago, Fogo and Sao Nicolau islands. The genetic markers show a gradient of genetic diversity with population size, with the smallest population of S. Nicolau being the least diverse, and the largest, Santiago, the most diverse. The more geographically isolated population on S. Nicolau is also more divergent from Santiago and Fogo than these two are from each other. The Cape Verde warbler diverged from its sister species, the greater swamp warbler Acrocephalus rufescens, within the last million years, and the three populations became isolated from one another 165,000–199,000 years ago. There is also evidence of population bottlenecks, especially on S. Nicolau. This population seems to have decreased during the last century, with potential for further decreases and even extinction. As the three populations are genetically distinct, with no evidence of gene flow between them, we argue they should be treated as separate management units for the successful conservation of this species.

Cityscape genetics: structural vs. functional connectivity of an urban lizard population.

Functional connectivity is essential for the long-term persistence of populations. However, many studies assess connectivity with a focus on structural connectivity only. Cityscapes, namely urban landscapes, are particularly dynamic and include numerous potential anthropogenic barriers to animal movements, such as roads, traffic or buildings. To assess and compare structural connectivity of habitats and functional connectivity of gene flow of an urban lizard, we here combined species distribution models (SDMs) with an individual-based landscape genetic optimization procedure. The most important environmental factors of the SDMs are structural diversity and substrate type, with high and medium levels of structural diversity as well as open and rocky/gravel substrates contributing most to structural connectivity. By contrast, water cover was the best model of all environmental factors following landscape genetic optimization. The river is thus a major barrier to gene flow, while of the typical anthropogenic factors only buildings showed an effect. Nonetheless, using SDMs as a basis for landscape genetic optimization provided the highest ranked model for functional connectivity. Optimizing SDMs in this way can provide a sound basis for models of gene flow of the cityscape, and elsewhere, while presence-only and presence-absence modelling approaches showed differences in performance. Additionally, interpretation of results based on SDM factor importance can be misleading, dictating more thorough analyses following optimization of SDMs. Such approaches can be adopted for management strategies, for example aiming to connect native common wall lizard populations or disconnect them from non-native introduced populations, which are currently spreading in many cities in Central Europe.

Does population distribution matter? Influence of a patchy versus continuous distribution on genetic patterns in a wind‐pollinated shrub

AbstractAimUniform spatial population distributions are predicted to result in lower among‐population genetic differentiation and higher within‐population genetic diversity than naturally patchy distributions, but there have been surprisingly few attempts to isolate this effect from confounding factors. We studied the widespread wind‐pollinated shrub Allocasuarina humilis that is common in a geologically stable landscape characterized by long‐term population persistence to test the influence of semi‐continuous versus patchy population distributions on genetic patterns. We also investigated whether A. humilis shows the high population connectedness and genetic diversity typically associated with wind pollination, a relatively uncommon and little‐studied syndrome in this landscape.LocationHeath‐shrublands (‘heath’) and forests of south‐western Australia.MethodsPopulations were sampled from heath and forest regions, which respectively exhibited semi‐continuous and patchy population distributions. Genetic structure and diversity were assessed for 27 populations using eight nuclear microsatellite markers and three chloroplast regions. Phylogeographical history was examined using Bayesian phylogeny reconstruction, parsimony analysis and tests of expansion.ResultsHigh haplotype diversity is consistent with long‐term population persistence across most of the species’ range. Nuclear markers showed low overall population differentiation and no geographical structure over c. 900 km, reflecting extensive pollen dispersal. For both marker types, patchily distributed forest populations were substantially more differentiated with significantly lower within‐population diversity than semi‐continuous heath populations. Phylogeographical analysis revealed evidence for earlier colonization of heath than forest and recent expansion into wetter forests, consistent with progressive long‐term climatic drying.Main conclusionsHigh population connectedness and genetic diversity probably resulted from wind pollination in combination with dioecy and long life span. Patchy population distributions appear to have influenced genetic structure and diversity through lower pollen and seed dispersal, lower effective population sizes and greater genetic drift. Our approach illustrates the value of minimizing confounding variables by testing the effect of a variable ecological trait within a single species.

Evolutionary melting pots: a biodiversity hotspot shaped by ring diversifications around the Black Sea in the Eastern tree frog (Hyla orientalis).

Hotspots of intraspecific genetic diversity, which are of primary importance for the conservation of species, have been associated with glacial refugia, that is areas where species survived the Quaternary climatic oscillations. However, the proximate mechanisms generating these hotspots remain an open issue. Hotspots may reflect the long-term persistence of large refugial populations; alternatively, they may result from allopatric differentiation between small and isolated populations, that later admixed. Here, we test these two scenarios in a widely distributed species of tree frog, Hyla orientalis, which inhabits Asia Minor and southeastern Europe. We apply a fine-scale phylogeographic survey, combining fast-evolving mitochondrial and nuclear markers, with a dense sampling throughout the range, as well as ecological niche modelling, to understand what shaped the genetic variation of this species. We documented an important diversity centre around the Black Sea, composed of multiple allopatric and/or parapatric diversifications, likely driven by a combination of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations and complex regional topography. Remarkably, this diversification forms a ring around the Black Sea, from the Caucasus through Anatolia and eastern Europe, with terminal forms coming into contact and partially admixing in Crimea. Our results support the view that glacial refugia generate rather than host genetic diversity and can also function as evolutionary melting pots of biodiversity. Moreover, we report a new case of ring diversification, triggered by a large, yet cohesive dispersal barrier, a very rare situation in nature. Finally, we emphasize the Black Sea region as an important centre of intraspecific diversity in the Palearctic with implications for conservation.

Predicting the effect of interspecific competition on habitat suitability for the endangered African wild dog under future climate and land cover changes

Apex predators play an important role in regulating ecological interactions, and therefore their loss can affect biodiversity across trophic levels. Large carnivores have experienced substantial population and range declines across Africa, and future climate change is likely to amplify these threats. Hence it is important to understand how future environmental changes will affect their long-term habitat suitability and population persistence. This study aims to identify the factors limiting the distribution of the endangered African wild dog, Lycaon pictus, and determine how biotic interactions and changing climate and land cover will affect future range suitability. We use Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to predict the current and future distribution of suitable conditions for L. pictus and its dominant competitor Panthera leo . We show that range suitability for L. pictus is limited by climatic and land cover variables, as well as high niche and range overlap with P. leo . Although both species are predicted to experience range contractions under future climate change, L. pictus may benefit from release from the effect of interspecific competition in eastern and central parts of its range. Our study highlights the importance of including land cover variables with corresponding future projections and incorporating the effects of competing species when predicting the future distribution of species whose ranges are not solely limited by climate. We conclude that SDMs can help identify priority areas for the long-term conservation of large carnivores, and therefore should be used to inform adaptive conservation management in face of future climate change.