Current and future suitability of wintering grounds for a long-distance migratory raptor

Christina Kassara,Jordi Figuerola,Wolfgang Fiedler,Laura Gangoso,Thomas G Hadjikyriakou,Peter Berthold,Willem Bouten,Nikos Tsiopelas,Vicente Urios,Pascual López-López,Marion Gschweng,Sinos Giokas,Munir Z Virani,Alexander N G Kirschel,Rafa Silva,Ugo Mellone,Gvido Piasevoli

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-08753-w

Abstract

Conservation of migratory species faces the challenge of understanding the ecological requirements of individuals living in two geographically separated regions. In some cases, the entire population of widely distributed species congregates at relatively small wintering areas and hence, these areas become a priority for the species’ conservation. Satellite telemetry allows fine tracking of animal movements and distribution in those less known, often remote areas. Through integrating satellite and GPS data from five separated populations comprising most of the breeding range, we created a wide habitat suitability model for the Eleonora’s falcon on its wintering grounds in Madagascar. On this basis, we further investigated, for the first time, the impact of climate change on the future suitability of the species’ wintering areas. Eleonora’s falcons are mainly distributed in the north and along the east of Madagascar, exhibiting strong site fidelity over years. The current species’ distribution pattern is associated with climatic factors, which are likely related to food availability. The extent of suitable areas for Eleonora’s falcon is expected to increase in the future. The integration of habitat use information and climatic projections may provide insights on the consequences of global environmental changes for the long-term persistence of migratory species populations.

Highlights

Understanding how organisms interact with their environment and, especially, how they cope with environmental variability is a fundamental question in ecology and of critical importance to the conservation of migratory animals
Because of the inaccessibility and remoteness of certain areas, the volatility of some political regimes and/or the high cost of large-scale field expeditions, researchers have often been restricted to the study of just a small subset of migratory species’ life stages, usually the breeding period
Owed to its large breeding range and increasing population, estimated in 29,200–29,600 mature individuals, the Eleonora’s falcon is classified as Least Concern[56]. It is unevenly distributed within its breeding range, with Greece holding more than 85% of the global population[57], while the increase in population numbers observed in late years is attributed to more extensive field surveys[57] rather than to an actual increase

Summary

Introduction

Understanding how organisms interact with their environment and, especially, how they cope with environmental variability is a fundamental question in ecology and of critical importance to the conservation of migratory animals. Many birds have shifted the timing of breeding and/or migration in response to climate change[5, 6] These changes may have cascading effects, often affecting food. Even though climate will undoubtedly continue to be a key driver of species’ abundance and distribution in the future, anthropogenic habitat changes can incur severe effects on species’ ranges and fitness. Taking into account the velocity at which these changes occur as well as the complexity of developing appropriate management policies, the conservation of long-distance migrant species calls for prompt, high quality databased decision making processes to improve their future prospects e.g. ref. Telemetry has recently allowed almost continuous remote tracking of animal movements providing opportunities to investigate the effect of natural and human-induced factors, including climate change, throughout their life cycle. Telemetry data may be coupled with future climate predictions and ecological niche modeling, allowing identifying key limiting environmental factors[21], potential wintering areas[22,23,24,25] as well as aiding the development of management guidelines[26]

Methods

Results

Conclusion