Long-term Forecasts Research Articles

Prediction of provincial Digital Economy Development Index based on grey combination forecasting model

PurposeIn many instances, the data exhibits periodic and trend characteristics. However, indices like the Digital Economy Development Index (DEDI), which pertains to science, technology, policy and economy, may occasionally display erratic behaviors due to external influences. Thus, to address the unique attributes of the digital economy, this study integrates the principle of information prioritization with nonlinear processing techniques to accurately forecast rapid and anomalous data.Design/methodology/approachThe proposed method utilizes the new information priority GM(1,1) model alongside an optimized BP neural network model achieved through the gradient descent technique (GD-BP). Initially, the provincial Digital Economic Development Index (DEDI) is derived using the entropy weight approach. Subsequently, the original GM(1,1) time response equation undergoes alteration of the initial value, and the time parameter is fine-tuned using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). Next, the GD-BP model addresses the residual error. Ultimately, the prediction outcome of the grey combination forecasting model (GCFM) is derived by merging the findings from both the NIPGM(1,1) model and the GD-BP approach.FindingsUsing the DEDI of Jiangsu Province as a case study, researchers demonstrate the effectiveness of the grey combination forecasting model. This model achieves a mean absolute percentage error of 0.33%, outperforming other forecasting methods.Research limitations/implicationsFirst of all, due to the limited data access, it is impossible to obtain a more comprehensive dataset related to the DEDI of Jiangsu Province. Secondly, according to the test results of the GCFM from 2011 to 2020 and the forecasting results from 2021 to 2023, it can be seen that the results of the GCFM are consistent with the actual development situation, but it cannot guarantee the correctness of the long-term forecasting, so the combination forecasting model is only suitable for short-term forecasting.Originality/valueThis article proposes a grey combination prediction model based on the principles of new information priority and nonlinear processing.

Long-term load forecasting for Smart Grid

Abstract The load forecasting problem is a complicated non-linear problem connected with the weather, economy, and other complex factors. For electrical power systems, long-term load forecasting provides valuable information for scheduling maintenance, evaluating adequacy, and managing limited energy supplies. A future generating, transmission, and distribution facility's development and planning process begins with long-term demand forecasting. The development of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) has greatly expanded the amount of real-time data collection on large-scale electricity consumption. The load forecasting techniques have changed significantly as a result of the real-time utilization of this vast amount of smart meter data. This study suggests numerous approaches for long-term load forecasting using smart-metered data from an actual distribution system on the NIT Patna campus. Data pre-processing is the process of converting unprocessed data into a suitable format by eliminating possible errors caused by lost or interrupted communications, the presence of noise or outliers, duplicate or incorrect data, etc. The load forecasting model is trained using historical load data and significant climatic variables discovered through correlation analysis. With a minimum MAPE and RMSE for every testing scenario, the proposed artificial neural network model yields the greatest forecasting performance for the used system data. The efficacy of the proposed technique has been through a comparison of the acquired results with various alternative load forecasting methods.

Long-Term Fine-Grained Forecasts of Emergency Demand Using EMS Big Data and Population Estimates

In recent years, Japan has been facing a super-aging society, impacting various sectors. The issues of overcrowded emergency medical services and the increase in emergency transport cases are particularly severe, necessitating urgent responses. The research group, in collaboration with the Kobe City Fire Department, is conducting a study focusing on long-term fine-grained forecasts of emergency demand. This study aims to provide indicators for the strategic deployment of emergency teams and the scaling of medical facilities. By utilizing regional mesh data, it can capture local characteristics far more precisely than previous city or district-level forecasts, offering significant advantages for local government policy implementation. In the prediction process, there are two stages to leverage national land numerical information and improve the accuracy of the forecast model. The results reveal regional disparities in future emergency demand, enabling optimal allocation of emergency resources and strategic planning for emergency services.

Optimizing Models and Data Denoising Algorithms for Power Load Forecasting

To handle the data imbalance and inaccurate prediction in power load forecasting, an integrated data denoising power load forecasting method is designed. This method divides data into administrative regions, industries, and load characteristics using a four-step method, extracts periodic features using Fourier transform, and uses Kmeans++ for clustering processing. On this basis, a Transformer model based on an adversarial adaptive mechanism is designed, which aligns the data distribution of the source domain and target domain through a domain discriminator and feature extractor, thereby reducing the impact of domain offset on prediction accuracy. The mean square error of the Fourier transform clustering method used in this study was 0.154, which was lower than other methods and had a better data denoising effect. In load forecasting, the mean square errors of the model in predicting long-term load, short-term load, and real-time load were 0.026, 0.107, and 0.107, respectively, all lower than the values of other comparative models. Therefore, the load forecasting model designed for research has accuracy and stability, and it can provide a foundation for the precise control of urban power systems. The contributions of this study include improving the accuracy and stability of the load forecasting model, which provides the basis for the precise control of urban power systems. The model tracks periodicity, short-term load stochasticity, and high-frequency fluctuations in long-term loads well, and possesses high accuracy in short-term, long-term, and real-time load forecasting.

Climate change: the biggest challenge of the modern century for workers

Climate change, as the greatest challenge of the century, has widespread effects on workers. These changes can lead to an increase in heat-related diseases, loss of jobs, and economic damage to businesses, change labor migration patterns and a decrease in job productivity. Therefore, considering the fact that climate change is currently and in the future considered one of the most important environmental challenges, long-term forecasting of climate variables to understand the extent of changes and consequently taking necessary measures to reduce the adverse effects of climate change should be of concern to various experts, including environmental science professionals. In this regard, public health experts, in line with their mission (the science of prevention), are seeking and organizing strategies to reduce these harmful effects on the health of communities and workers. Conducting research related to climate change for better preparedness for adaptation to this phenomenon and also reducing the costs of damages caused by these changes is very essential.

A review of time-series analysis for cyber security analytics: from intrusion detection to attack prediction

Understanding the current threat landscape as well as timely detection of imminent attacks are primary objectives of cyber security. Through time-series modeling of security data, such as event logs, alerts, or incidents, analysts take a step towards these goals. On the one hand, extrapolating time-series to predict future occurrences of attacks and vulnerabilities is able to support decision-making and preparation against threats. On the other hand, detection of model deviations as anomalies can point to suspicious outliers and thereby disclose cyber attacks. However, since the set of available techniques for time-series analysis is just as diverse as the research domains in the area of cyber security analytics, it can be difficult for analysts to understand which approaches fit the properties of security data at hand. This paper therefore conducts a broad literature review in research domains that leverage time-series analysis for cyber security analytics, with focus on available techniques, data sets, and challenges imposed by applications or feature properties. The results of our study indicate that relevant approaches range from detective systems ingesting short-term and low-level events to models that produce long-term forecasts of high-level attack cases.

Anticipating prosperity: a systemic analysis of long-term economic trajectories

PurposeThis study introduces an innovative approach to long-term economic forecasting by integrating anticipatory governance (AG) and causal layered analysis methodologies. Focussing on emerging economies, with Vietnam as a case study, we explore potential economic trajectories to 2050.Design/methodology/approachThe research employs a mixed-method approach, combining quantitative economic projections with qualitative scenario building and analysis.FindingsOur findings reveal four distinct future scenarios, ranging from low growth to transformative change. The preferred scenario, characterized by adaptive change, projects a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of $30,684 by 2050, with significant reductions in agricultural labour and improvements in human development indicators.Originality/valueThis study contributes to theoretical and practical domains by demonstrating the value of integrated foresight methodologies in economic planning. It offers policymakers a comprehensive framework for navigating complex, long-term economic challenges and opportunities. This research underscores the importance of adaptive governance and systemic thinking in achieving sustainable, inclusive economic growth in an increasingly uncertain global environment.

Integrated risk analysis for urban flooding under changing climates

Urban flooding poses significant threats to human lives and urban development worldwide, while the impact of climate change on urban flooding remains unclear. To systematically analyze the variabilities of hydrological patterns and urban flooding under changing climates, this study coupled the downscaled general circulation model (GCM) projection with hydrologic-hydraulic modeling, with consideration of both the low-greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario of SSP1–2.6 and the high-GHG emission scenario of SSP5–8.5. Results demonstrated that the original GCM projection effectively captured the changing trend of rainfall patterns in the given area, with an overestimation of rainfall peaks. The GCM downscaling through the k-nearest neighbors (kNN)-based analog method significantly improved the model accuracy. Scenario analysis indicated that climate change significantly affected the regional hydrology, with the precipitation, surface runoff, and floods increasing by a maximum value of 17.10%, 12.66%, and 63.26%, respectively. The interannual comparison demonstrated that the temporal variability in precipitation and flood intensified with the increase in GHG emissions during 2025–2100, suggesting the uncertainty of long-term climate forecasts. According to flood risk analysis, long-term and short-term floods exhibit varied changing trends across climate scenarios, despite the strong correlations between precipitation and runoff, implying the complexity of flood generation mechanisms. The methods and findings herein provide valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners, to cope with the increasing urban flood risk within the context of evolving environment.

IMPLEMENTATION OF INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE OF STATE PROTECTION OF NATIONAL VALUES IN UKRAINE

The author of the article reveals the purpose of implementing the international experience of the system of state protection of national values through the prism of two important trends that should be implemented and and enshrined in the practice of state-building processes in modern Ukraine. One of them stipulates that national values are the central core of the national security system security system, they define the triad of ‘values-interests-goals’. The second trend defines the system of creating mechanisms for legislative support of guaranteeing and protecting of national values, which is embodied in the systemic nature of the state policy on national development and is the actual consolidation of the civilisational civilisational choice of the Ukrainian nation at the level of legal acts. The purpose of the article is to analyse practical aspects of implementation of the state mechanisms for protection of national values in foreign countries and their implementation in the Ukrainian State. The author emphasises that national values of of modern Ukraine should not be subject to political bargaining, speculation, etc. They are are always an element of political struggle. Without this, political processes are impossible, and therefore, national values should be defined and prohibited for political speculation on them, which, by the way, requires the development of an institution of for their criminal law protection; and - to have its own system of mechanisms of legislative protection. It is determined that the first step towards the implementation of the experience of foreign countries in protecting national values should be the introduction of an all-Ukrainian analytical study of the system of national values. It should should be based on long-term and medium-term forecasts of domestic development and the development of the system of world politics, its specific regional and functional subsystems. This means that the full potential of national research institutes in the field of public opinion, civil society, and sociological research should be used to society, and sociological research should be directed within the framework of a single state policy to study and define national values.

A review of load forecasting technology based on artificial intelligence

Abstract. Driven by the "dual carbon" goals and the construction of new-type power systems, the importance of power load forecasting technology has become increasingly prominent. Accurate power load forecasting can not only ensure the safe and stable operation of the power system, but also promote the efficient use of clean energy and reduce carbon emissions. Traditional power load forecasting methods have become insufficient in dealing with the complexity and nonlinear growth of power systems, and the development of artificial intelligence technology has brought new possibilities for power load forecasting. Power load forecasting methods based on machine learning and deep learning have gradually become a hot topic of research due to their powerful nonlinear mapping capabilities and advantages in processing big data. These methods not only perform well in short-term forecasting, but also show potential in medium- and long-term forecasting. This paper discusses the application of different artificial intelligence technologies in power load forecasting by sorting out the development status of related technologies, and provides a reference direction for future research.

Spatial-temporal graph neural networks for groundwater data.

This paper introduces a novel application of spatial-temporal graph neural networks (ST-GNNs) to predict groundwater levels. Groundwater level prediction is inherently complex, influenced by various hydrological, meteorological, and anthropogenic factors. Traditional prediction models often struggle with the nonlinearity and non-stationary characteristics of groundwater data. Our study leverages the capabilities of ST-GNNs to address these challenges in the Overbetuwe area, Netherlands. We utilize a comprehensive dataset encompassing 395 groundwater level time series and auxiliary data such as precipitation, evaporation, river stages, and pumping well data. The graph-based framework of our ST-GNN model facilitates the integration of spatial interconnectivity and temporal dynamics, capturing the complex interactions within the groundwater system. Our modified Multivariate Time Graph Neural Network model shows significant improvements over traditional methods, particularly in handling missing data and forecasting future groundwater levels with minimal bias. The model's performance is rigorously evaluated when trained and applied with both synthetic and measured data, demonstrating superior accuracy and robustness in comparison to traditional numerical models in long-term forecasting. The study's findings highlight the potential of ST-GNNs in environmental modeling, offering a significant step forward in predictive modeling of groundwater levels.

Forecasting future earthquakes with deep neural networks: application to California

SUMMARY We use the spatial map of the logarithm of past estimated released earthquake energies as input of fully convolutional networks (FCN) to forecast future earthquakes. This model is applied to California and compared with an elaborated version of the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. Our long-term earthquake forecast simulations show that the FCN model is close to the ETAS model in forecasting earthquakes with $M \ge 3.0,\,\,4.0,\,\,{\rm{and\,\,}}5.0$ according to the Molchan diagram. Moreover, training and implementing the FCN model is 2000–4000 times faster than calibrating the ETAS model and generating its probabilistic forecasts. The FCN model is straightforward in terms of its neural network structure and feature engineering. It does not require extensive knowledge of statistical seismology or the analysis of earthquake catalogue completeness. Using the earthquake catalogue with $M \ge 0$ as FCN input can enhance the model's performance in some time–magnitude forecasting windows.

Development of a city-level surface ozone forecasting system using deep learning techniques and air quality model: Application in eastern China

Utilizing regional air quality models to accurately forecast surface ozone (O3) concentrations, particularly high concentrations, is essential for protecting public health. However, forecasts of air quality model often deviate from site observations due to the limitation of grid resolution and uncertainties from emission sources, meteorological conditions, and chemical reaction mechanisms. Especially, the underestimation is significant under condition of high O3 concentrations. Moreover, such deviations tend to accumulate as forecast lead time increases, compounding the challenges associated with reliable air quality forecast. In this study, we employed AlexNet architecture, a classical convolutional neural network, combined with multiple variables related to meteorology, chemistry, emission and geography to establish a non-linear relationship between grid-scale input variables and site-scale hourly O3 forecast biases in Eastern China, aiming to realize accurate city-level ozone forecast based on a regional air quality prediction model (i.e., Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System, NAQPMS). By assigning weights to high-bias samples and high-concentration samples within the loss function, the proposed Weighted AlexNet model (W_AlexNet) effectively reduced forecast biases and enhanced its capability to predict O3 pollution levels. Compared to NAQPMS, W_AlexNet model demonstrated a 25.71% improvement in RMSE and a 7.17% increase in IOA averagely for hourly O3 (O3-1h) forecasts across four different lead times (24-h, 48-h, 72-h, and 96-h). Notably, W_AlexNet model alleviated the tendency of NAQPMS to underestimate high concentrations and showed a superior performance in improving O3-1h pollution level forecasts, particularly for the 72-h and 96-h lead times. W_AlexNet model can effectively mitigate the bias accumulation effect over increasing lead times, thereby enhancing the reliability of longer-term forecasts. Thus, the W_AlexNet model serves as a post-processing model that can calibrate forecast biases in air quality prediction models, significantly improving the accuracy of O3 high concentration forecasts and providing more precise early warnings of O3 pollution. This underscores its utility in air quality management.

An Automatic Data-Driven Long-term Rainfall Prediction using Humboldt Squid Optimized Convolutional Residual Attentive Gated Circulation Model in India

<p style="text-align:justify;"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";font-size:12pt;line-height:200%;">Precise long-term rainfall forecasting is becoming progressively significant, predominantly in periods of fluctuating weather circumstances. These prophecies are indispensable for several areas, including agronomy, water resource supervision, flood attentiveness, and effluence monitoring. This framework investigates the composite association between climatological data, with an emphasis on the precise estimating of rainfall by finding the effect of temperature disparities on rainfall outlines in diverse states of India. The developed framework undergoes two phases: pre-processing and rainfall forecasting. At first, the Improved min-max normalization (I-MMN) technique is highlighted in the preprocessing stage to eliminate unsolicited missing values from the database. Then, the convolutional residual attentive gated circulation unit (CResAtt-GCU) technique is presented to envisage the amount of rainfall that occurs in various Indian states. Finally, the Humboldt squid optimizer (HBSO) technique is presented to tune the parameters of the developed model to minimize network complications during the training process. The developed framework is processed under the Python platform and the real-time rainfall prediction database collected between 2000-2023 is utilized for the experimentation process. Various computational measures like R2, root mean square error (RMSE), Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and computation time are evaluated and distinguished from different studies. The overall R2 of 0.993, RMSE of 0.84, KGE of 0.96, NSE of 0.992, MAE of 0.53, and overall CT of 86.66s are obtained by the developed technique against various conventional studies on forecasting the rainfall in different regions of India.</span></p>

Long-term probabilistic forecasts of activity mitigation in English hospitals: a national elicitation exercise providing an outside view based on judgements of experts in support of the New Hospital Programme

ObjectivesThe planning process for a new hospital relies on assumptions about future levels of demand. Typically, such assumptions are characterised by point estimates, the flaw-of-averages, base-rate neglect and overoptimism from...

Long term demand forecasting in Jakarta distribution grid system using fuzzy logic and artificial neural network method

Abstract In order to attain equilibrium between energy supply and demand, reliance on conventional methods for precise long-term electricity demand forecasting is no longer viable. The utilization of artificial intelligence, such as fuzzy logic and artificial neural network (ANN) models, emerges as a prospective solution in the current dynamic scenario. This research explores long-term electricity demand forecasting within the Jakarta distribution grid system, employing various fuzzy logic and ANN approaches including Sugeno, Mamdani, Bayesian Regularization, and the Levenberg algorithm. The analysis incorporates time series data spanning 2016 to 2019, encompassing electricity load demand, economic factors, and demographic variables, processed using MATLAB. The outcomes of the four forecasting methods reveal an average error range of 2 to 3%. The findings indicate that employing fuzzy logic and ANN methods for long-term electricity demand forecasting can yield a forecast error of less than 3%. The study recommends future research enhancements through the inclusion of additional time series data and a more refined system.

Long-term AI prediction of ammonium levels in rivers using transformer and ensemble models

This study provides a cutting-edge machine learning approach to forecast ammonium (NH4+) levels in River Lee London. Ammonium concentrations were predicted over several time intervals using a complete dataset that includes temperature, turbidity, chlorophyll, dissolved oxygen, conductivity, and pH. Our technique captures the intricate connections between environmental conditions and ammonium concentrations using developed algorithms, including Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT), Random Forest (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) levels versus the important factors, considerably improving prediction accuracy. The novel aspect of this study is the utilisation of the TFT model for multi-horizon forecasting, which offers high accuracy and interpretability in hydrological predictions by combining convolutional components with an attention mechanism. The study also demonstrates the effectiveness of the TFT model in capturing short-term fluctuations while retaining accuracy over long time periods, which is a major difficulty in environmental modelling. The models used, have exceptional forecasting skills, predicting 150, 200, 365, 730, and 1095 days based on daily average and 12, 24 and 30 months based on monthly average. This dual-scale model combines flexibility and resilience, making it an effective tool for forecasting both short- and long-term environmental changes. The RF model excelled in long-term forecasts, sustaining high R-squared (R²) (0.97) values and low root mean square error (RMSE) (0.18), and the second best one was the XGBoost with optimiser with R2 of (0.92) and RMSE of (0.25) with forecasting 1095 days. The results also found that whilst the TFT captured the fluctuations in the short-term, it struggled with the longer-term predictions due to data granularity. The XGBoost model did remarkably well in monthly forecasts up to 12 months, maintaining low RSME. The findings also highlight the necessity of proactive water management techniques to reduce the risk of potential ecological effects, including hypoxia and oxygen depletion. The findings support resource managers in addressing prospective ammonium toxicity concerns such as oxygen depletion and ecological stress.

The impact of effective fractured rock mass properties on development of flow channeling in enhanced geothermal systems

Controlling the distribution of working fluid in an Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) is crucial to prevent early thermal breakthrough and sustain the initial heat drainage area. Over time, working fluid flow may localize to a small area if fracture permeability increases non-uniformly, and efforts are not made to control the flow distribution. This scenario can potentially lead to mechanical reopening of hydraulic fractures, flow channeling, and thermal short-circuiting. However, current models neglect the nonlinear and inelastic deformation of fractured rock masses on EGS coupled thermo-mechanical response. The objective of this work is to estimate and predict the likelihood of thermal short-circuiting by flow-channeling in an EGS reservoir composed of rock and compliant natural fractures. We utilize three dimensional numerical solutions with reservoir properties based on effective medium theory of fractured rocks to achieve this objective. The results show that presence of natural fractures considerably changes the EGS response to thermal destressing, compared to linear poroelastic models. Flow channeling and short-circuiting, resulting in early thermal breakthrough, are more likely to occur in sparsely fractured reservoirs with stiff and strong natural fractures. Conversely, short-circuiting is unlikely in densely fractured reservoirs where thermal strains are absorbed by natural fracture opening and shear sliding rather than by rock matrix contraction. Estimation of natural fracture density is crucial in long-term forecasting and prediction of EGS power output. Accurate fracture characterization could decisively impact the fate of a project.

PMformer: A novel informer-based model for accurate long-term time series prediction

When applied to long-term time series forecasting, Informer struggles to capture temporal dependencies effectively, leading to suboptimal forecasting accuracy. To address this issue, we propose PMformer, a novel model based on Informer for long-term time series prediction. First, we introduce a probabilistic patch sampling attention mechanism that utilizes a patch-based strategy to compute attention scores within randomly selected sequence patches. This localized approach enhances the model's capability to capture local temporal dependencies, allowing it to better understand and process critical local features in time series while reducing computational complexity. Additionally, we propose a multi-scale scaling sparse attention technique that balances attention distribution by combining coarse- and fine-grained attention scores, thereby improving the model's ability to capture global sequence information. Finally, we design a dilated causal pooling layer and a multilayer perceptual cross self-attention decoder to further enhance the model's prediction accuracy by capturing key information in long-term correlations and precisely focusing on sequences. We conducted experiments on both multivariate and univariate time series forecasting tasks. The results show that PMformer outperforms six baseline models, including PatchTST and FEDformer, in terms of MAE and MSE metrics. This demonstrates its superior ability to capture temporal dependencies, achieving more accurate predictions.

Progressive Supervision via Label Decomposition: An long-term and large-scale wireless traffic forecasting method

Long-term and Large-scale Wireless Traffic Forecasting (LL-WTF) is pivotal for strategic network management and comprehensive planning on a macro scale. However, LL-WTF poses greater challenges than short-term ones due to the pronounced non-stationarity of extended wireless traffic and the vast number of nodes distributed at the city scale. To cope with this, we propose a Progressive Supervision method based on Label Decomposition (PSLD). Specifically, we first introduce a Random Subgraph Sampling (RSS) algorithm designed to sample a tractable subset from large-scale traffic data, thereby enabling efficient network training. Then, PSLD employs label decomposition to obtain multiple easy-to-learn components, which are learned progressively at shallow layers and combined at deep layers to effectively cope with the non-stationary problem raised by LL-WTF tasks. Finally, we compare the proposed method with various state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods on three large-scale WT datasets. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that the proposed PSLD significantly outperforms existing methods, with an average 2%, 4%, and 11% performance improvement on three WT datasets, respectively. In addition, we built an open source library for WT forecasting (WTFlib) to facilitate related research, which contains numerous SOTA methods and provides a strong benchmark. Experiments can be reproduced through https://github.com/Anoise/WTFlib.