Long-term load forecasting for smart grid

Abstract

Abstract The load forecasting problem is a complicated non-linear problem connected with the weather, economy, and other complex factors. For electrical power systems, long-term load forecasting provides valuable information for scheduling maintenance, evaluating adequacy, and managing limited energy supplies. A future generating, transmission, and distribution facility's development and planning process begins with long-term demand forecasting. The development of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) has greatly expanded the amount of real-time data collection on large-scale electricity consumption. The load forecasting techniques have changed significantly as a result of the real-time utilization of this vast amount of smart meter data. This study suggests numerous approaches for long-term load forecasting using smart-metered data from an actual distribution system on the NIT Patna campus. Data pre-processing is the process of converting unprocessed data into a suitable format by eliminating possible errors caused by lost or interrupted communications, the presence of noise or outliers, duplicate or incorrect data, etc. The load forecasting model is trained using historical load data and significant climatic variables discovered through correlation analysis. With a minimum MAPE and RMSE for every testing scenario, the proposed artificial neural network model yields the greatest forecasting performance for the used system data. The efficacy of the proposed technique has been through a comparison of the acquired results with various alternative load forecasting methods.