Long-term Development Model Research Articles

Research of mathematical methods and models of long-term industrial development

The importance of the study of relevant mathematical methods and models of long-term development of the national industry is substantiated. It has been proven that causal econometric models of production are relatively simple and convenient to use in practice, as well as the most common tools for researching the long-term economic future. It was defined that the production functions, adapted to individual circumstances, proved their ability to solve the assigned tasks. However, the problem of more accurate adjustment to the features of the simulated object of research is particularly relevant in the current conditions of development of Ukraine, in the conditions of concentration of attention on certain sectors, on particular branch of industry, and in connection with the revolutionary transformations of production forces and relations, in accordance with the spread of cyber-physical technologies of the Fourth Industrial revolution.In such specific circumstances, it makes sense to ask for more sophisticated models. On the one hand, they are better, as they allow more accurate tuning of the modeled object, including by adding important factors that are outside the production system. On the other hand, they are worse because they complicate the analysis and significantly increase the number of variables needed to describe the dynamics of economic growth. In this connection, expert research methods cannot be neglected. Choosing the type of model, the range of influencing factors, possible development scenarios, etc., usually requires expert assessments (often implicit). Therefore, when analyzing long-term factors and development trends, it is important to adhere to the main methodological message of expert approaches in the construction of foresights: for long time horizons in conditions of significant uncertainty, it is appropriate to ask questions not about the calculation of the "correct future", but about the assessment of the spectrum of probable scenarios of development, expansion and rethinking its new opportunities and challenges, in particular – to avoid potentially harmful ideas and expectations, embedded in the current policy.

Economic and mathematical modeling of long-term development of national industry in the conditions of digitalization with the use of a production function

The article substantiates the expediency of modeling the development of national industry taking into account how the main interconnected key sectors of Ukrainian economy (not only processing and extractive industries, but also agriculture) are developing, as well as taking into account the factors that cause changes in this development over time. Based on previous researches, multiplicative production function has been chosen as the base for building the model, which was modified by taking into account the peculiarities of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the specifics of individual industries in Ukraine. The economic-mathematical model of long-term development of specified branches of economy of Ukraine in the conditions of digitalization was proposed, in which the value added in the branch is the dependent variable, and the classic components of production functions (labor and the capital) are the independent variables, as well as the new factor – digitalization, and factors, specific to individual industries (world food price index for agriculture and world raw material price index for the extractive industry). A specific feature of the model is also the use of correction factors that reflect the change in the return of factors over time and increase the accuracy of calculations. In addition, separate models have been developed to calculate each of the main factors, based on the dynamics of investments, taking into account the recursive influence of value added, propensity to invest, the condition of the world economy and other specific factors. The calculation of value added in agriculture, extractive and processing industries of Ukraine in 2010-2019 was performed using the model. The adequacy of the model was validated based on the results of its parameterization, which showed sufficient accuracy for the implementation on practice, as the average absolute error of approximation ranges from 2.94% to 4.14% depending on the industry, with abnormal 2014-2015 excluded from the calculations. The value of GDP in the country as a whole was calculated on the basis of the results of value added calculations by key industries. Taking into account the fact that the proposed set of models does not include all industries, a regression model was used to calculate GDP, to which value added for the identified key industries was used as factor. It is established that the proposed model is quite accurate and can be used to calculate the GDP of Ukraine on the basis of value added calculations in agriculture, extractive and processing industries. Given the prospects of practical use of the model for management decisions, the elasticity of the main driving factor (investments) of the development of individual industries was assessed for the main variables, which, in particular, showed that the exchange rate of hryvnia to the US dollar has a negative impact on investments, and the most pronounced – on investments in fixed assets of the processing industry. This questions the widespread idea that the devaluation of the hryvnia stimulates domestic production.

An empirical model of long-term development for accommodation facilities: the role of smart destination

This paper draws on the literature on innovation and networking in the tourism industry to investigate how the promotional tools developed by destinations - websites for information and booking, mobile apps, e-commerce websites, tourist cards, business intelligence (BI) and customer relationship management (CRM) software - may contribute to the long-term development of accommodations in the territory. A model is created to analyse the impact of destinations' digital tools on booking channels, direct and intermediated (both online and offline), and in turn their effect on revenue. Furthermore, a deeper investigation is conducted to have evidence of possible different output by clustering accommodation facilities by location, typology or clientele. Hypotheses are tested with a generalised linear model and an ordered logistic regression on data retrieved from 1,226 accommodations distributed in the Italian territory. Empirical results evidence the contribution of smart destinations in increasing the competitiveness of the tourism firms in the same area.

An empirical model of long-term development for accommodation facilities: the role of smart destination

This paper draws on the literature on innovation and networking in the tourism industry to investigate how the promotional tools developed by destinations - websites for information and booking, mobile apps, e-commerce websites, tourist cards, business intelligence (BI) and customer relationship management (CRM) software - may contribute to the long-term development of accommodations in the territory. A model is created to analyse the impact of destinations' digital tools on booking channels, direct and intermediated (both online and offline), and in turn their effect on revenue. Furthermore, a deeper investigation is conducted to have evidence of possible different output by clustering accommodation facilities by location, typology or clientele. Hypotheses are tested with a generalised linear model and an ordered logistic regression on data retrieved from 1,226 accommodations distributed in the Italian territory. Empirical results evidence the contribution of smart destinations in increasing the competitiveness of the tourism firms in the same area.

RETRACTED: Development of Island tourism resources based on distributed database and embedded system

This article describes the sustainable production system made islands. Distributed data resources used to produce goods for consumption and disposal. Production activities are supported by global non-critical resources, such as capital, technology and expertise in embedded systems, patents and data: analysis and business plan. Provide a case study to explain this arrangement. Understand the potential of the Island's manufacturing sector to add value to the debate on sustainable manufacturing. This study aims to develop an embedded system as a model recognized as a highly developed modern development model, and tourism destination as a system bound essentially regional representatives with a specific development framework. Find similarities with the indispensable support of the overall product at your destination for a distributed database server. By this analogy, find a long-term development model suitable for local commercial embedded systems tourist destinations. A reasonable solution is the concept of sustainable development; the basic principle is coherent. Tourism destination management principles function.

Modelos de desarrollo y soberanía en América Latina: una visión desde la gestión territorial

La necesidad de establecer modelos de desarrollo de largo plazo que permitan superar problemáticas y deficiencias estructurales, que fortalezcan la soberanía y propicien la igualdad y la equidad social, ha estado en el centro del debate político y académico en los últimos años para América Latina. Sin embargo, en tiempos recientes se ha evidenciado un proceso de expansión económica y territorial que ha generado desequilibrios territoriales, grandes problemáticas ambientales y una elevada conflictividad social que han dificultado el alcance de este gran objetivo. El trabajo realizado propuso evaluar qué elemento y factores representan los mayores obstáculos para consolidar modelos de desarrollo soberanos, y al mismo tiempo discutir el efectivo dominio de los territorios y recursos de los Estados latinoamericanos y la capacidad verdadera de llevar adelante una gestión política territorial. A través de un abordaje teórico y un análisis de casos, los resultados alcanzados han permitido identificar diversas problemáticas comunes a la mayoría de los países, establecer algunas consideraciones respecto a la importancia de mejorar la gestión territorial como estrategia para fortalecer la soberanía de cada Estado; y plantear algunos desafíos a futuro para construir una visión de conjunto para la región frente al contexto internacional.

Long-term projecting in the local or territorial automation systems with alternative network models

When monitoring long-term target-oriented innovation programs where alternative stochastic network models can be determined and optimized within the period of the project’s realization (e.g., transcontinental pipelines, developing oil/gas fields, creating new innovative industrial areas, etc.), we recommend applying the outlined basic structure of a long-term development model. Those models are based on the following concept: in all encountered situations within the progress of the project when the manager is faced with necessity to make a choice from the set of possible alternatives, he has to determine: deterministic alternative scenarios (fragments) which describe different ways to reach the desired target, and a stochastic system (usually a purely stochastic alternative network) with multi-variant outcomes of random nature. Such a stochastic system is fully determined by the chosen scenario and usually follows the latter.

Dugoročni razvoj sportiste - od teorijskog i praktičnog modela do saznajnog problema

Two decades after designing and implementing the course of Children's sport as a university subject at the Faculty of Sports and Physical Education, University of Belgrade, and its full academic and practical affirmation, the question of revising and expanding the theoretical and practical context of this subject has been raised, especially in the area of knowledge-related to long-term development of an athlete (DRS) and career planning (problem of this paper). Therefore, theoretical and practical models related to DRS have been introduced as the subject of this analysis, and as a function of theoretical and practical verification, related to defining the context of a new cognitive problem. If we summarize the extensive theoretical and practical sources, we can conclude that sport theory is not capable to creating a framework for a realistic, much less a long-term athlete development model, which is why the aim of this paper is to set out the theoretical and empirical trends towards a new paradigm for holistic view of DRS through sport. An essential and thorough analysis of the context of a representative model of long-term development of an athlete, known by its English acronym LATD and other DRS models ascertained that their starting point should be established around the concept of physical literacy, as well as that the truth of the DRS model is still in the process of theoretical and practical verification. The discussion offered is a framework for new strides in approach to a comprehensive theory and practice of sport, especially in the area of children's and youth sport.

Lessons from a Survey of China’s Economic Diplomacy

Today, the West faces a considerable dilemma in their support for the Washington Consensus as a dominant approach for development because the Beijing model has grown to become an unavoidable process which can only be neglected at the cost of standing on the wrong side of economic history. The Washington Consensus, the hitherto dominant scheme, is being encroached on by the Beijing model. Many African nations are increasingly embracing this latter method because the prevailing Western model has failed to deliver on a number of objectives. This is increasingly evident because China’s economic diplomacy has been politely and strategically coined to achieve it. A case study is used herein to articulate the different strands of the survey. The article puts some structure on China’s economic diplomatic strategies and discusses lessons for Africa, China and the West. It contributes to existing literature by critically assessing why it is necessary for the West to modify the conception and definition of the Washington Consensus as a counterpart to the Beijing model. In order to remain relevant in the twenty-first century and beyond, the Washington Consensus should incorporate those ideas which are in conformity with Moyo’s (2013) conjecture. This postulates that, while the Beijing model is optimal in the short-run, the Washington Consensus remains the ideal long-term development model because it is more inclusive of the rights demanded by individuals at different income categories.

The improvement strategy on the management status of the old residence community in Chinese cities: An empirical research based on social cognitive perspective

There are a large number of old residential communities and their management state is related to thousands of families. As a typical representative country of the developing countries, China has a wider public influence because of its own special housing reform. However, the government's policies such as renovation and marketization management have had little effect. Why it is so hard to improve the management of old communities? In the current research, gradually transforming from urban renewal to the sustainable management improvement, but there are few to find the solution of the problem from owners’ perspective. Therefore, from the perspective of social cognition, we established a cognitive theoretical model of owners’ participation in community management according to a framework of interaction among individuals, environment and behavior. In addition, we studied the relationship between influencing factors of desire for owners' participation and actual management effects, and discussed the management improving strategies of old residential community. Taking empirical analysis through 1038 questionnaires from owners of 61 old residential communities, results show that the owners efficiency, outcome expectancy, hardware quality, soft resource quality, and neighborhood relationship of old residential community all have positive impacts on owners’ participation in management. Specifically, outcome expectancy has the greatest impact, followed by hardware facilities quality, then soft resources quality and owners efficiency, while neighborhood relationship affect least. This study explains why the government's urban renewal policy failing to change the old residential management difficulties. What’s more we gives solutions to establish a long-term development model which owners participate actively by improving law and disclosing old communities planning to reverse their pessimistic expectations. This paper has great significance on old residential community management theory construction and management practices in many countries with similar problems.

The role of Alpine development regimes in the development of second homes: Preliminary lessons from Switzerland

In a majority of the tourist municipalities of the Swiss Alps, more than 50% of residences are second homes. However, the growing awareness that second homes contribute to the shortage of available land and to the standardization of landscapes in sensitive alpine environments has had little effect on the pace of development. Following the adoption of the popular initiative “Stop the endless construction of second homes”, which aimed to limit the share of second homes in a municipality to 20% of homes in the area, a new law came into force on 1 January 2016, taking a clear stand against further uncontrolled development of second homes.Although it is too early to measure the impact of this new legislation, many observers proclaimed the beginning of a new development era in alpine regions. However, this optimism did not consider the strong position of the developers in these regions and their strong ties to local decision makers. This article appraises the impact of the new legislation on the long-term development model of Alpine tourist destinations, which is still largely based on strategies of land rent capture. Relying on urban regime theory, we maintain that the impact of the new regulation will depend on its ability to weaken Alpine development regimes. Urban regime theory allows us to capture the complexity of the changing context of the tourism industry and highlight five main factors that potentially impact the status of the development of second homes as a central issue of local governance. Based on empirical evidence from the Upper Engadin region, we discuss the measures implemented to regulate the growth of second homes and formulate preliminary remarks on the effectiveness of the new regulations in curbing development of second homes.

Lessons from a Survey of China's Economic Diplomacy

Today, the West faces a considerable dilemma in their support for the Washington Consensus as a dominant approach for development because the Beijing model has grown to become an unavoidable process which can only be neglected at the cost of standing on the wrong side of economic history. The Washington Consensus, the hitherto dominant scheme, is being encroached on by the Beijing model. Many African nations are increasingly embracing this later method because the prevailing Western model has failed to deliver on a number of objectives. This is increasingly evident because China’s economic diplomacy has been politely and strategically coined to achieve it. A case study is used herein to articulate the different strands of the survey. The paper puts some structure on China’s economic diplomatic strategies and discusses lessons for Africa, China and the West. It contributes to existing literature by critically assessing why it is necessary for the West to modify the conception and definition of the Washington Consensus as a counterpart to the Beijing model. In order to remain relevant in the 21st century and beyond, the Washington Consensus should incorporate those ideas which are in conformity with Moyo’s (2013) conjecture. This postulates that, while the Beijing model is optimal in the short-run, the Washington Consensus remains the ideal long-term development model because it is more inclusive of the rights demanded by individuals at different income categories.

The development of the renewable energy power industry under feed-in tariff and renewable portfolio standard: A case study of China's wind power industry

Among the regulatory policies, feed-in tariffs (FIT) and renewable portfolio standards (RPS) are the most popular to promote the development of renewable energy power industry. This paper uses system dynamics (SD) to establish models of long-term development of the renewable energy power industry under FIT and RPS schemes, and provides a case study of China's wind power industry by using scenario analysis method. The model, on the one hand, not only clearly shows the complex logical relationship between the factors but also reveals the process of coordination between the two policy tools in the development of the renewable energy power industry. On the other hand, it provides a reference for scholars to study similar problems in different countries, thereby facilitating an understanding of the renewable energy power's long-term sustainable development pattern under FIT and RPS schemes, and helping to provide references for policy-making institutions. The results show that the integrate implementation of FIT and RPS can promote long-term and rapid development of China's wind power industry given the constraints and actions of the mechanisms of RPS quota proportion, the tradable green certificates (TGC) valid period, and fines. In addition, in the period of the construction of the TGC market, RPS quota growth rate and fine have a no significant effect on industrial development, however, with TGC market game becoming more and more fierce, both of them have a significant positive impact on the long-term development of the industry. TGC valid period has little effect on industrial development in our study. At the end of the paper, policy implications are offered as references for the government.

The development of China's biomass power industry under feed-in tariff and renewable portfolio standard: A system dynamics analysis

Among the regulatory policies, feed-in tariffs (FIT) and renewable portfolio standards (RPS) are the most popular to promote the development of renewable energy power industry. This paper uses system dynamics (SD) to establish models of long-term development of China's biomass power industry under FIT and RPS schemes, and provides a case study by using scenario analysis method. The model, on the one hand, not only clearly shows the complex logical relationship between the factors but also reveals the process of coordination between the two policy tools in the development of the industry. On the other hand, it provides a reference for scholars to study similar problems in different countries, thereby facilitating an understanding of biomass power's long-term sustainable development pattern under FIT and RPS schemes, and helping to provide references for policy-making institutions. The results show that in the perfect competitive market, the implementation of RPS can promote long-term and rapid development of China's biomass power industry given the constraints and actions of the mechanisms of RPS quota proportion, the TGC valid period, and fines, compared with FIT. At the end of the paper, policy implications are offered as references for the government.

The policy effects of feed-in tariff and renewable portfolio standard: A case study of China’s waste incineration power industry

Among the regulatory policies, feed-in tariffs (FIT) and renewable portfolio standards (RPS) are the most popular to promote the development of renewable energy power industry. They can significantly contribute to the expansion of domestic industrial activities in terms of sustainable energy. This paper uses system dynamics (SD) to establish models of long-term development of China’s waste incineration power industry under FIT and RPS schemes, and provides a case study by using scenario analysis method. The model, on the one hand, not only clearly shows the complex logical relationship between the factors but also assesses policy effects of the two policy tools in the development of the industry. On the other hand, it provides a reference for scholars to study similar problems in different countries, thereby facilitating an understanding of waste incineration power’s long-term sustainable development pattern under FIT and RPS schemes, and helping to provide references for policy-making institutions. The results show that in the perfect competitive market, the implementation of RPS can promote long-term and rapid development of China’s waste incineration power industry given the constraints and actions of the mechanisms of RPS quota proportion, the TGC valid period, and fines, compared with FIT. At the end of the paper, policy implications are offered as references for the government.

The Development of the Renewable Energy Power Industry under Feed-In Tariff and Renewable Portfolio Standard: A Case Study of China’s Photovoltaic Power Industry

Among the regulatory policies, feed-in tariffs (FIT) and renewable portfolio standards (RPS) are the most popular to promote the development of renewable energy power industry. They can significantly contribute to the expansion of domestic industrial activities in terms of sustainable energy. In this paper, we synthetically consider various important factors with the analysis of the existing literature, and use system dynamics (SD) to establish models of long-term development of the renewable energy power industry under FIT and RPS schemes. The model not only clearly shows the complex logical relationship between the factors but also reveals the process of coordination between the two policy tools in the development of the renewable energy power industry. In addition, as an example of development of renewable energy industry, the paper studies the development of China’s photovoltaic power industry under different scenarios. The models proposed in this paper can provide a reference for scholars to study development of the renewable energy power industry in different countries, thereby facilitating an understanding of the renewable energy power’s long-term sustainable development pattern under FIT and RPS schemes, and helping to provide references for policy-making institutions. The results show that in the perfect competitive market, the implementation of RPS can promote long-term and rapid development of China’s photovoltaic power industry given the constraints and actions of the mechanisms of RPS quota proportion, the TGC valid period, and fines, compared with FIT. At the end of the paper, policy implications are offered as references for the government.

Documenting a long-term development model in the slums of Delhi.

BackgroundAchieving development outcomes requires the inclusion of marginalised populations that have the least opportunity to participate in and benefit from development. Slum dwellers often see little of the ‘urban advantage’, suffering more from infectious diseases, increasing food costs, poor access to education and health care, inadequate water and sanitation, and informal employment. A recent Cochrane Review of the impact of slum upgrading strategies found a dearth of unbiased studies, making it difficult to draw firm conclusions. The Review calls for greater use of process data, and qualitative alongside quantitative methods of evaluation. India is a lower middle income nation with large gender disparities and around 65 million slum inhabitants. The Asha Community Health and Development Society, a non-governmental organisation based in Delhi, has delivered a multi-sectoral program across 71 slums since 1988. This article reports on a mixed-method study to document measureable health and social impacts, along with Asha’s ethos and processes.MethodsSeveral observational visits were made to 12 Asha slums where informal discussions were had with staff and residents (n = 50). Asha data records were analysed for change over time (and differences with greater Delhi) in selected indicators (maternal-child health, education, child sex ratio) using descriptive statistics. 34 semi-structured individual/small group interviews and 14 focus group discussions were held with staff, residents, volunteers, elected officials, civil servants, bankers, diplomats, school principals, slumlords and loan recipients (n = 147).ResultsKey indicators of health and social equity improved over time and compared favourably with those for greater Delhi. The Asha model emphasises rights, responsibilities, equity and non-violence. It employs strategies characterised by long-term involvement, systematic protocols and monitoring, development of civil society (especially women’s and children’s groups) to advocate for rights under the law, and links with foreign volunteers and fund-raisers. Stakeholders agreed that changes in community norms and living conditions were at least partly attributable to the Asha model.ConclusionsWhile lacking a control group or complete baseline data, evidence suggested substantial improvements in slum conditions and social equity. The Asha model offers some lessons for slum (and broader) development.

Training for Sustained Performance: Moving Toward Long-Term Musician Development

Success in the performing arts, like sports, is dependent upon the acquisition and consistent use of a diverse range of skills. In sports, an understanding of safe and effective use of the body is required to facilitate long-term involvement in that activity. In order to assist athletes to attain their performance goals, and ensure healthy and sustained involvement, long-term athlete development (LTAD) models have been devised and adapted by professional sporting bodies throughout the world. LTAD models emphasize the intellectual, emotional, and social development of the athlete, encourage long-term participation in physical activities, and enable participants to improve their overall health and well-being and increase their life-long participation in physical activity. At present there is no such long-term development model for musicians. Yet musicians must cope with a multitude of career-related physical and mental demands, and performance-related injuries and career burnout are rife within the profession. Despite this, musicians' training rarely addresses such issues and musicians are left largely to learn about them through either chance or accrued experience. This paper discusses key concepts and recommendations in LTAD models, together with music-specific research highlighting the need for the development of a comprehensive long-term approach to musicians' training. The results of a survey of existing music training programs are compared to recommendations and the different development stages in LTAD models. Finally, implementation science is introduced as a methodological option for identifying how best to communicate the body of evidence-based knowledge concerning healthy and effective music-making to young student musicians.

The integrated model of core competence and core capability

There is much research discussing the issues of core competence, core capability, business performance and corporate growth. But the lack of studies exploring their causality is an important research gap. In this research, we develop a framework of a core capabilities operation system, which systematically integrates these critical initiatives, and can be used to develop the extended model of business development. In order to conduct the empirical study, we also design a strategic map of an enterprises' long-term development model. In this model the elements of a fundamental field cultivate the core competences, and further develop the core capabilities. These core competences and capabilities are the drivers of core competitiveness, which force the long-term development and excellent business. Based on this framework, we can develop the structure equation model, and the related questionnaire for the empirical study, in order to determine the critical initiatives and the relationships among these constructs. Based on the analytic results, the causalities among these critical initiatives can be confirmed. We also discover that ‘good organisation culture’ and ‘excellent management team’ are the most important firm’ fundamentals, which support the successful implementation of core competences and core capabilities. Herewith the ‘specialised technologies’, ‘powerful IT system’ and capturing the customers' needs' are the core competences, and ‘product lifetime management’ and ‘total quality management’ are the important capabilities. Core competitiveness is composed of ‘business development strategies’, ‘leader of core products’, and ‘innovative products’, which can result in the firm's excellent business performances.

Social housing solutions for Rome

Research today should focus on building a fairer and more sustainable longterm development model, compared to the present situation, capable of effectively meeting the political, economic, market and social demands. Social housing encompasses all these elements and is currently in a phase of applied experimentation. For some time now universities have been usefully contributing to furthering the issue of social housing and the time is now ripe to apply the results produced by the large number of researches in this field. The aim of the paper is to provide an overview of the design process and the environmental features of the Master Plan relating to a significant Social Housing project in the area of Collina Muratella, in Rome, within the framework of a research project commissioned to the DATA Department of La Sapienza University of Rome by the construction firm Lamaro Appalti Unipersonale spa.