Long-term projecting in the local or territorial automation systems with alternative network models

Abstract

When monitoring long-term target-oriented innovation programs where alternative stochastic network models can be determined and optimized within the period of the project’s realization (e.g., transcontinental pipelines, developing oil/gas fields, creating new innovative industrial areas, etc.), we recommend applying the outlined basic structure of a long-term development model. Those models are based on the following concept: in all encountered situations within the progress of the project when the manager is faced with necessity to make a choice from the set of possible alternatives, he has to determine: deterministic alternative scenarios (fragments) which describe different ways to reach the desired target, and a stochastic system (usually a purely stochastic alternative network) with multi-variant outcomes of random nature. Such a stochastic system is fully determined by the chosen scenario and usually follows the latter.