Long-term Contingency Research Articles

Merging OBM with Discipline Systems: Making the Case for Performance Recovery

ABSTRACT Too often management attempts to control employee behavior by threats and punishment. Behavior analysis eschews aversive control and organizational behavior management (OBM) exemplifies this philosophical and ethical preference with a rich history of reinforcement strategies for appropriate work performance. Discipline in OBM emphasizes clarification of job requirements, monitoring behavior and results, frequent feedback, and maximizing short-, medium-, and long-term contingencies of reinforcement for effective performance, thus preventing additional problematic behaviors from employees. This results in efficient supervision that promotes employee development leading to successful worker performance and strategic goals for the organization. However, dangerous or inappropriate work behaviors necessitate punitive consequences. Well controlled evidence-based research concerning punishment in organizational settings is lacking and possible benefits are unknown.

Evaluation of projected soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in South Africa using a deep learning approach

Environmental degradation and carbon emissions have become a major global concern. This has forced policymakers to consider strategic and long-term contingencies to increase carbon sequestration capacity and mitigate the effects of climate change. Soil organic carbon (SOC) provides a reliable long-lasting mechanism to ameliorate climate change and regulate carbon fluxes. However, unanticipated rates of climate change coupled with the dynamic nature of land-use transformation threatens current mitigation approaches and can jeopardise carbon stock assimilation. To effectively manage and protect SOC stocks, large-scale projections that accurately model both current and future SOC pools are necessary. Hence, this study modelled the effects of simulated climate and land-cover change on SOC inventories across South Africa up to the year 2050. A digital soil mapping strategy in concert with a deep neural network (DNN) was used to model current SOC stocks distribution. Subsequently, WorldClim general circulation models and a space-for-time substitution (SFTS) method were used to derive future SOC stocks under four shared socio-economic emission pathways. Results show a relatively high accuracy with RMSE of 7.44 t/h for current stocks, while future stocks ranged from 11.37 to 13.56 t/h. Depending on emission rates, results showed a reduction in SOC inventories, with overall SOC stocks declining from 5.64 Pg to between 4.97 and 5.38 Pg by 2050. Meanwhile, forests, which account for approximately 1.2 Pg of total SOC in South Africa, were found to have lost more than 1% of their total coverage by 2050. These findings provide a glimpse into the state of South Africa's current and future SOC stock inventories and the influence of climate and land-use change. These findings are valuable to among others policymakers, land use managers and climate change experts in assessing the long-term feasibility of South Africa's existing SOC management protocols and land-use planning agenda. However, to adequately protect future SOC stocks, current land-use planning frameworks need to be re-adjusted to prioritize pressing environmental concerns.

Coastal Flood Risks and the Business Community: Stakeholders’ Perception in Malta

Resilience of coastal communities is increasingly required to adjust to the effects of climate change and its coast-related threats. Climate change is a major global threat to the environment, economy, and health of urban coastal lowlands. Flooding risks from both rising sea levels and increases in the frequency and severity of storm surges are considered to be amongst the most threatening consequences associated with climate change. The aim of this study was to assess the levels of socio-economic preparedness of low-lying urbanized towns in Malta for the impacts of coastal flooding through the triangulation of stakeholders’ participation from three sectors: the business community, local councils, and specialized experts from the governmental and private sectors. The study also included field collection of elevation data for each locality to capture the businesses’ distribution in relation to their height above sea level along the urban waterfront. One-way analysis of variance and NVivo were used to test and compare the business owners’ responses and the experts’ feedback, respectively. The main findings from the business community suggest that there are no long-term contingency plans or strategies in place to address potential flooding impacts from rising sea levels and storm surges, and that the risks of driving owners out of business is high. From the feedback received by the local councils, it was observed that all of them significantly lack the physical and financial resources to effectively manage long-term coastal flooding within their locality, forcing them to completely rely on central government for any future needs caused by the impact of coastal flooding. From a central government perspective, it seems that all interviewed experts operate within a fragmented governance model, and mainly adhere to the set of responsibilities aligned with their respective roles within such a governance model. This evidence of governance disconnect requires more horizontal and vertical integration of cross-sectoral strategies to address coastal flooding, within the broader framework of integrated coastal zone management as established by the Mediterranean ICZM protocol.

The correlation between professional quality of life and mental health outcomes among hospital personnel during the Covid-19 pandemic in Taiwan.

PurposeThis study investigated the association between professional quality of life, working context, and mental health outcomes among hospital personnel in Taiwan during the worldwide upsurge in COVID-19 cases.Patients and MethodsWe recruited 503 hospital personnel to whom we administered online questionnaires containing items from the Professional Quality of Life (ProQoL) scale, which covers compassion satisfaction (CS), burnout (BO) and compassion fatigue (CF), the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS-21) and questions on work-related variables. Data were collected from 13 July to 19 August 2020.ResultsThe participants generally reported moderate CS and BO and low CF. Overall prevalence of mild-to-extremely-severe stress, anxiety and depression was 24.5%, 39.6% and 31.2%, respectively. Multiple logistic regression revealed that moderate-to-high BO and CF correlated with increased risks of mild-to-extremely-severe stress (OR = 4.17 and 2.23, respectively), anxiety (OR = 4.86 and 2.81, respectively) and depression (OR = 5.83 and 3.01, respectively), while moderate-to-high CS correlated with reduced risks of stress (OR = 0.53) and depression (OR = 0.45) only. There were CS and BO differences in groups categorized by marital status and profession. Anxiety increased linearly by seniority <10, 10–19 and ≥20 years (p for trend <0.05).ConclusionIn conclusion, the subscales of ProQOL, BO and CF appeared to be associated with increased risks of stress, anxiety and depression among hospital personnel during the COVID-19 epidemic. A long-term contingency program may be needed to adjust work context variables and support emotional well-being of these workers.

Professional Quality of Life and Perceived Stress in Health Professionals before COVID-19 in Spain: Primary and Hospital Care.

This study aimed to analyze the professional quality of life and the perceived stress of health professionals before COVID-19 in Spain, in primary and hospital care professionals. A cross-sectional observational study on health professionals working in health centers during the health crisis caused by COVID-19 was conducted. Professional Quality of Life (ProQoL) and Perceived Stress (PSS-14) were measured, along with socio-demographic and labor variables through an online questionnaire. A descriptive and correlation analysis was performed. A total of 537 professionals participated, both in hospital care (54.7%) and in primary care (45.3%). There was a predominance of medium Compassion Satisfaction, high Compassion Fatigue and medium Burnout. Mean scores for compassion fatigue and compassion satisfaction were slightly higher in primary care, while burnout was higher in hospital care. When primary care participants were grouped by profession, significant differences were found in relation to perceived stress and to the three subscales of professional quality of life. In hospital care, the differences were observed when comparing compassion fatigue and perceived stress by gender. In addition, with respect to Burnout it was carried out by type of contract and shift and in relation to perceived stress grouped by sex, contract and profession. The COVID-19 health crisis has had an impact on mental health and the quality of professional life of health professionals. There is a need to implement long-term contingency programs aimed at improving the emotional well-being of health service professionals.

Fundamental Shifts in Research, Ethics and Peer Review in the Era of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

The era of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to fundamental shifts in research, ethics, and peer review including reframing of the research design, adapting methodologies to the study type, transitioning of research mechanics, changing research methodologies, overcoming data collection and standardization constraints, upholding research standards and ethics, maintaining informativeness and social value, and providing guarded peer review flexibility. Indeed, the COVID-19 crisis, despite disrupting research worldwide to an unprecedented degree, has also become a catalyst to develop strategies of adaptation to this disruption. As the COVID-19 pandemic continuous to evolve, new, cost-effective, and highly flexible research models need to be developed. Planning is crucial for ensuring short-term and long-term contingency funds to support research logistics and personnel. A mental shift must accompany changes in methodologies to mentor and support researchers who are vital to the continuity of high-caliber research in the long term. A global research perspective through interinstitutional and interprofessional collaboration will sustain adherence to the highest standards of data collection and research reporting.

Feedback Discounting in Probabilistic Categorization: Converging Evidence from EEG and Cognitive Modeling

In simple probabilistic learning environments, the informational value of corrective feedback gradually declines over time. This is because prediction errors persist despite learners acquiring the contingencies between stimuli and outcomes. An adaptive solution to the problem of unavoidable prediction error is to discount feedback from the learning environment. We provide novel neural evidence of feedback discounting using a combination of behavioral modeling and electroencephalography (EEG). Participants completed a probabilistic categorization task while EEG activity was recorded. We used a model-based analysis of choice behavior to identify individuals that did and did not discount feedback. We then contrasted changes in the feedback-related negativity (FRN) for these two groups. For individuals who did not discount feedback, we observed learning-related reductions in the FRN that reflected incremental changes in choice behavior. By contrast, for individuals who discounted feedback, we found that the FRN was effectively eliminated due to the rapid onset of feedback discounting. The use of a feedback discounting strategy was linked to superior performance on the task, highlighting the adaptive nature of discounting when trial-to-trial outcomes are variable, but the long-term contingencies relating cues and outcomes are stable.

Volcanic ash and aviation: Recommendations to improve preparedness for extreme events

The eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in 2010 was an unprecedented event for European aviation and emphasized the need for advancements in the corresponding risk management of the stakeholders involved. This study researches progress since 2010, as significant regulatory changes have been introduced to improve European and North Atlantic aviation risk management with regards to volcanic ash. A participatory stakeholder workshop with scenario narratives was set up in which stakeholders discussed obstacles in the general management of aviation during volcanic ash eruptions as well as under extreme eruption scenarios. This paper presents recommendations developed from the workshop.The research found that a better understanding is needed of the impacts that long lasting ash episodes may have on aviation. Events of long duration require improved availability of staff, e.g., with staff exchange between related agencies. Furthermore, it is recommended that staff be trained to meet accelerated demands and restructured tasks during a crisis that may last for months. It is also suggested that more challenging response exercises be used to drive stakeholders out of their comfort zone.The study provides recommendations on information exchange between the stakeholders. During an event, the large amounts of information received from scattered sources may be quite challenging. A single point of information for stakeholders could be set up to structure the information and reduce confusion. Communication products, such as maps, must be better aligned with end-user needs. Ensuring the comprehensibility of difficult features, such as the representation of uncertainty in ash distribution modelling and produced data, requires discussion with end-users prior to an event.The study stresses the need for further funding of research on the impact of ash on jet engines since lack of knowledge in this area limits the benefits of advances in ash forecasting. The application of the Safety Risk Assessment approach needs to be coordinated across nations. Strengthening society’s resilience as a whole to such events, calls for a comprehensive long-term contingency plan, including alternative transportation if aircrafts are grounded.

Mechanisms of reciprocity in primates: testing for short-term contingency of grooming and food sharing in bonobos and chimpanzees

Much of the debate about reciprocity in humans and other primates hinges on proximate mechanisms, or more precisely, the contingency of one service on another. While there is good evidence for long-term statistical contingencies of services given and received in primates, results for short-term behavioral contingencies are mixed. Indeed, as we show here controlled experiments using artificial tasks and explicit turn-taking were unlikely to find short-term effects. We therefore used more naturalistic experiments to test for short-term contingencies of grooming on food sharing and vice versa in one group of chimpanzees and two groups of bonobos. Overall, we found significant effects of grooming on food sharing and vice versa, however, in the chimpanzees these effects disappeared when controlling for long-term characteristics of the dyad including services exchanged over the whole study period. In the bonobos, short-term contingencies remained significant which was likely a consequence of considerable tension surrounding monopolizable food resulting in higher rates of grooming and other affiliative behaviors around sharing sessions. These results are consistent with the fact that previous evidence for short-term contingency often involved grooming and that long-term contingency is more commonly observed in primates. We propose that long-term contingency is proximately regulated by a ‘relationship score’ computed through a tally of past interactions which tend to outweigh recent single events. We therefore suggest that future research into the proximate mechanisms of reciprocity should trace the development of such a score by focusing on newly formed dyads with no history of interactions.

Knots: Attractive Places with High Path Tortuosity in Mouse Open Field Exploration

When introduced into a novel environment, mammals establish in it a preferred place marked by the highest number of visits and highest cumulative time spent in it. Examination of exploratory behavior in reference to this “home base” highlights important features of its organization. It might therefore be fruitful to search for other types of marked places in mouse exploratory behavior and examine their influence on overall behavior.Examination of path curvatures of mice exploring a large empty arena revealed the presence of circumscribed locales marked by the performance of tortuous paths full of twists and turns. We term these places knots, and the behavior performed in them—knot-scribbling. There is typically no more than one knot per session; it has distinct boundaries and it is maintained both within and across sessions. Knots are mostly situated in the place of introduction into the arena, here away from walls. Knots are not characterized by the features of a home base, except for a high speed during inbound and a low speed during outbound paths. The establishment of knots is enhanced by injecting the mouse with saline and placing it in an exposed portion of the arena, suggesting that stress and the arousal associated with it consolidate a long-term contingency between a particular locale and knot-scribbling.In an environment devoid of proximal cues mice mark a locale associated with arousal by twisting and turning in it. This creates a self-generated, often centrally located landmark. The tortuosity of the path traced during the behavior implies almost concurrent multiple views of the environment. Knot-scribbling could therefore function as a way to obtain an overview of the entire environment, allowing re-calibration of the mouse's locale map and compass directions. The rich vestibular input generated by scribbling could improve the interpretation of the visual scene.

Stochastic Actuarial Modelling of a Defined-Benefit Social Security Pension Scheme: An Analytical Approach

ABSTRACTAmong the systems in place in different countries for the protection of the population against the long-term contingencies of old-age (or retirement), disability and death (or survivorship), defined-benefit social security pension schemes, i.e. social insurance pension schemes, by far predominate, despite the recent trend towards defined-contribution arrangements in social security reforms. Actuarial valuations of these schemes, unlike other branches of insurance, continue to be carried out almost exclusively on traditional, deterministic lines. Stochastic applications in this area, which have been restricted mainly to occasional special studies, have relied on the simulation technique. This paper develops an analytical model for the stochastic actuarial valuation of a social insurance pension scheme. Formulae are developed for the expected values, variances and covariances of and among the benefit expenditure and salary bill projections and their discounted values, allowing for stochastic variation in three key input factors, i.e., mortality, new entrant intake, and interest (net of salary escalation). Each deterministic output of the valuation is thus supplemented with a confidence interval, that is, a range with an attached probability. The treatment covers the premiums under the different possible financial systems for these schemes, which differ from the funding methods of private pensions, as well as the testing of the level of the Fund ratio when the future contributions schedule is pre-determined. Although it is based on a relatively simplified approach and refers only to retirement pensions, with full adjustment in line with salary escalation, the paper brings out the stochastic features of pension scheme projections and illustrates a comprehensive stochastic valuation. It is hoped that the paper will stimulate interest in further research, both of a theoretical and a practical nature, and lead to progressively increasing recourse to stochastic methods in social insurance pension scheme valuations.

Rules, Culture, and Fitness

Behavior analysis risks intellectual isolation unless it integrates its explanations with evolutionary theory. Rule-governed behavior is an example of a topic that requires an evolutionary perspective for a full understanding. A rule may be defined as a verbal discriminative stimulus produced by the behavior of a speaker under the stimulus control of a long-term contingency between the behavior and fitness. As a discriminative stimulus, the rule strengthens listener behavior that is reinforced in the short run by socially mediated contingencies, but which also enters into the long-term contingency that enhances the listener's fitness. The long-term contingency constitutes the global context for the speaker's giving the rule. When a rule is said to be "internalized," the listener's behavior has switched from short- to long-term control. The fitness-enhancing consequences of long-term contingencies are health, resources, relationships, or reproduction. This view ties rules both to evolutionary theory and to culture. Stating a rule is a cultural practice. The practice strengthens, with short-term reinforcement, behavior that usually enhances fitness in the long run. The practice evolves because of its effect on fitness. The standard definition of a rule as a verbal statement that points to a contingency fails to distinguish between a rule and a bargain ("If you'll do X, then I'll do Y"), which signifies only a single short-term contingency that provides mutual reinforcement for speaker and listener. In contrast, the giving and following of a rule ("Dress warmly; it's cold outside") can be understood only by reference also to a contingency providing long-term enhancement of the listener's fitness or the fitness of the listener's genes. Such a perspective may change the way both behavior analysts and evolutionary biologists think about rule-governed behavior.

Inferring abilities after influencing performance

Two experiments investigated the effects of “perceiver-induced constraint” in the realm of ability attribution. In Experiment 1, subjects tried to influence a target person's performance on a series of anagram problems by offering clues. Half the subjects were motivated to enhance the target person's score whereas the remaining subjects focused their clue-giving efforts at enhancing the target person's ability to solve anagrams. The nature of the target person's performance was also manipulated. The pattern of success was either descending or ascending, but equal in overall performance level. As predicted, subjects trying to improve ability saw the ascending performer as more intelligent whereas subjects trying to enhance performance were more impressed by the descending performer, thus demonstrating the well-established primacy effect in ability attribution. Experiment 2 examined the attributions of observers given goal instructions and performance feedback identical to those in the first experiment. All subjects, regardless of the goal orientation of the clue-giver they observed, saw the descending performer as more intelligent, indicating that the results of the first experiment were not solely the result of the experimental instructions. The results suggest that performance-oriented “inducers” were more concerned with the immediate contingency between their interventions and the target persons response. In contrast ability-enhancing inducers were more focused on the long-term contingency between intervention and performance.