Long-term Conservation Research Articles

Energy-preserving methods for gyrocenter system in strong magnetic field

Abstract We formulate second-order and fourth-order energy-preserving methods with two explicit corrections for gyrocenter system in a strong magnetic field 1/ϵ B(X) where the ∥B(X)∥2 = O(1) and ϵ << 1. We theoretically show that the error bound of the two methods are independent of ϵ. Numerical experiments illustrate the impact of the ϵ on the phase orbit and the global error. Additionally, the numerical results show that the energy-preserving methods with the first correction show its advantage in long-term energy conservation than the energy-preserving methods without correction. The energy-preserving methods with the second correction behaves better in energy conservation than those with the first correction as the energy error of the former ones can be bounded by the machine precision over long time.

Leading the Way: Working Towards Heritage-Led Nature Recovery in Natural England

ABSTRACT The climate and biodiversity crises are an immediate and existential threat, risking the widespread loss and degradation of habitats across England. The UK Government’s Environmental Improvement Plan commits us to being the first generation to leave the environment in a better state than we found it, and the long-term conservation and enhancement of the historic environment is an essential component of this commitment. However, as the pressure mounts to deliver nature recovery faster, at greater scale and within increasingly tighter budgets, does heritage run the risk of being overlooked? Natural England’s 2023 guidance Nature Recovery and the Historic Environment provides a best-practice framework to ensure appropriate integration of heritage into nature recovery, but it also goes further – exploring the correlations between our historic and natural environments and the ways in which heritage assets can provide added value to nature recovery projects. This paper will take this thinking a step further and consider how projects led by heritage can deliver across the full spectrum of environmental objectives: to inform, inspire and improve habitat restoration, species abundance, soil health, improved air and water quality, public access, landscape distinctiveness and rural placemaking.

Conservation benefits of a large marine protected area network that spans multiple ecosystems.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are widely implemented tools for long-term ocean conservation and resource management. Assessments of MPA performance have largely focused on specific ecosystems individually and have rarely evaluated performance across multiple ecosystems either in an individual MPA or across an MPA network. We evaluated the conservation performance of 59 MPAs in California's large MPA network, which encompasses 4 primary ecosystems (surf zone, kelp forest, shallow reef, deep reef) and 4 bioregions, and identified MPA attributes that best explain performance. Using a meta-analytic framework, we evaluated the ability of MPAs to conserve fish biomass, richness, and diversity. At the scale of the network and for 3 of 4 regions, the biomass of species targeted by fishing was positively associated with the level of regulatory protection and was greater inside no-take MPAs, whereas species not targeted by fishing had similar biomass in MPAs and areas open to fishing. In contrast, species richness and diversity were not as strongly enhanced by MPA protection. The key features of conservation effectiveness included MPA age, preimplementation fisheries pressure, and habitat diversity. Important drivers of MPA effectiveness for single MPAs were consistent across MPAs in the network, spanning regions and ecosystems. With international targets aimed at protecting 30% of the world's oceans by 2030, MPA design and assessment frameworks should consider conservation performance at multiple ecologically relevant scales, from individual MPAs to MPA networks.

GROWTH PARAMETERS ESTIMATES OF <i>PARREYSIA FAVIDENS</i> (BENSON, 1862) FROM THE RIVER BURHI GANDAK IN BIHAR, INDIA

The study has been conducted to investigate the length-weight, width-weight relationship and condition factor (K) of the freshwater mussel Parreysia favidens, from the river Burhi Gandak, Bihar India. A total 520 specimens were collected during July 2020 to June 2021. The observed length of P. favidens was ranged from 30 to 80 mm and weight ranged from 3.01 to 30.09 g. The species showed negative allometric growth pattern. The total length-weight and width-weight relationships were W= 0.0002L2.472 and 0.00152.451 and the r2 value (coefficient of determination) was estimated at 0.644 and 0.599. The condition factor (K) was determined to be 0.75. All LWR regression parameters showed highly significant (P > 0.001). These results will provide the framework for the long-term conservation and management of the freshwater mussels’ resources in the Burhi Gandak River, North Bihar, India.

Population dynamics and the role of protected areas in China’s milu deer (Elaphurus davidianus) rewilding

Protected areas are refugia for wildlife and play a crucial role in biodiversity conservation, especially in the restoration of rare and endangered species. However, little attention has been paid to the long-term contribution of protected areas to rare species population rejuvenation. To identify the population growth of milu deer (Elaphurus davidianus)in protected areas and unprotected areas, we fitted the population dynamics curve of reintroduced free-ranging and wild populations based on long-term monitoring data in four protected areas: Jiangsu Dafeng Milu National Nature Reserve, Hubei Shishou Milu National Nature Reserve, Hunan East Dongting Lake National Nature Reserve, and Jiangxi Poyang Lake area. We also examined population dynamics in two unprotected areas: Yangbotan wetland and Sanheyuan wetland in Shishou County, Hubei province. We analyzed the habitat characteristics (coastal marshy wetland, riverine wetlands, and lake wetlands)in all these areas. The results showed that: (1) population growth in Dafeng, Shishou, Dongting, Sanheyuan and Yangbotan all followed an S-curve (p < 0.001); while population growth around Poyang Lake was linear (p < 0.001); (2) the population growth rate of Yangbotan wetland was significantly higher than that of Dongting Nature Reserve (p < 0.05); and (3) the two unprotected areas, Yangbotan and Sanheyuan wetlands, are important for the conservation of milu, as they have been facing the threats of urbanization and fragmentation in recent years. Our studies indicate that long-term conservation in protected areas has played an irreplaceable role in the reconstruction and rejuvenation of wild populations of milu deer over the past 30 years, and multiple reintroductions are an effective way to quickly restore wild milu populations in China.

Impacts of climate change on the endemic and threatened herpetofauna from Pampas grassland, Argentina

Climate change is one of the main causes of biodiversity loss worldwide. However, detailed knowledge about the impacts of climate change on most species in the Neotropical region is incipient, and the herpetofauna from Pampas grassland is no exception. In this frame, we model the suitable habitats of nine endemic amphibian and reptile species that inhabit the Pampas grassland of Argentina, under current climatic conditions and future climate change scenarios, with the general objective of prioritising conservation and management strategies. To model the suitable habitat of each species we used the Maxent algorithm, while the complementary spatial analyses were carried out with DIVA-GIS. We found a significant loss in both suitable habitat surfaces and known populations in most studied species. The relationship between these two parameters provided a ranking of species for long-term conservation and monitoring. Finally, based on the conservation priorities obtained for each species, we identified and discussed the main management strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Our results were consistent with previous reports in the Neotropical region, highlighting the negative climate change impacts on herpetofauna species, and the urgent need for management strategies to mitigate it. In conclusion, our results establish the bases to develop monitoring, conservation and management strategies to face the predicted changes in the suitable habitats of the endemic and threatened herpetofauna from Pampas grassland. Keywords: biodiversity, conservation, habitat loss, management, population loss

Innovative Approaches to Structurally-Functional Analysis and Long-Term Conservation of Fossil Biological Objects. Combined Radiation Sterilization

Innovative Approaches to Structurally-Functional Analysis and Long-Term Conservation of Fossil Biological Objects. Combined Radiation Sterilization

Smart irrigation system using PLC, SCADA, and fuzzy control

This paper describes the design of smart irrigation control system for a 20-acre farm in Alexandria, Egypt, based on a Graphical User Interface GUI, Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition systems SCADA, Programmable Logic Control PLC, Fuzzy Logic Control FLC, and sensors. A SCADA system with a local Human Machine Interface HMI screen, and remote control through a VPN connection is applied to monitor and regulate the field sensors. There are various agricultural crops on this farm which are affected by the environmental parameters. The measured input parameters are soil moisture, wind speed, pressure, temperature, humidity, rain fall, and soil conductivity. The measured data are extracted from the sensors. The output is then carried out based on the applied PLC, SCADA, and fuzzy control which are designed and implemented to make a decision about the suitable operational irrigation pumps can be used. The comparison between the total daily power consumption per day for the traditional irrigation system which is 352 KWh/day, and the total daily power consumption per day for the smart control irrigation system which is 242 KWh/day, resulting the reduction rate in power and cost is 31.25%. PLC, SCADA, and fuzzy control ensure long-term water conservation in agriculture and reduction in the power consumption.

Habitat changes of a small endemic euryhaline fish species in the northern margin of the South China Sea under the background of global warming

Hainan medaka (Oryzias curvinotus) is a small euryhaline fish species native to the northern margin of the South China Sea. Our long-term field observations indicate a concerning decline in its wild resources. Climate change, an uncontrollable factor, has altered the species’ distribution pattern. In this study, we simulated the shifts in the species range of O. curvinotus during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), current, and the next one hundred year, and analyzed its habitat attributes. The results demonstrate that bio2 (mean diurnal range of temperature) is a crucial factor in shaping the species range of O. curvinotus. The simulation results reveal that the current habitats are located in the coastal areas of northern Vietnam, the northeastern Hainan Province, the coastal areas of Guangdong Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, and a few areas in Taiwan Province of China, covering a total area of 17.82×104 km2. Highly suitable habitats are mainly concentrated in the coastal areas of Hai Phong, Nam Dinh, and Thanh Hoa in northern Vietnam, the central part of Leizhou Peninsula, and the west coast of the Pearl River Estuary. For the tropical species Hainan medaka, the impact of the LGM was relatively minor, and there were extensive suitable habitats during historical times, including three refugia. Currently, only Refugium 2 near Guanghai Town, Taishan County, Jiangmen City, Guangdong Province in China remains, while the other two refugia have submerged below sea level. Future climate warming under different carbon emission levels is projected to cause a short-term expansion, followed by a relief in expansion. By 2100, the potential habitat area of O. curvinotus is slightly larger than the current scenario. It is noteworthy that under future climate warming scenarios, the highly suitable habitats will not migrate northward but will expand near the 21°N latitude. Overall, Hainan medaka is not expected to be threatened in the future. Our study provides long-term dynamic distribution data, which provides a theoretical basis for the long-term development and conservation management of Hainan medaka.

Waterbird assemblages of Australia’s largest east-coast wetland complex: environmental determinants of spatial and temporal distribution

Context The extensive Burdekin–Townsville seasonal freshwater wetlands in the Queensland tropics (adjacent to an intertidal Ramsar site) support important waterbird assemblages within and downstream of the Burdekin–Haughton irrigation area. Little evidence is available of the environmental drivers of these assemblages, possibly including the extensive development of irrigated agriculture. Aims We described the composition and dynamics of freshwater waterbird assemblages to identify their environmental determinants and underpin conservation management. Methods We used up to four decades’ worth of records of waterbird assemblages, and collected biophysical data from 57 sites and water quality data for 32 sites. We predicted that these measured variables would determine assemblage composition, thereby elucidating the environmental drivers of the assemblages. Key results In total, 100 waterbird and shorebird species were recorded. Individual samples were strongly nested. Species richness increased with area but density decreased. Richness had a humped relationship with water depth. Linear modelling identified mostly weak relationships between species, assemblages and environmental variables (e.g. nutrients). Abundances mostly increased during the dry season but irrigation tailwater reduced seasonal variation in some wetlands. No apparent change in common species’ assemblages was evident over four decades. Conclusions The wetlands provide extensive, diverse habitats for rich waterbird assemblages, despite impacts of agricultural development. Impacts on waterbirds appear to be buffered by the extent and complexity of the wetland mosaic that includes modified wetlands. Implications Holistic, active management is required to ensure the long-term conservation of habitats for waterbirds and other biota in the Burdekin–Townsville seasonal freshwater wetlands. Inclusion of these freshwater wetlands in the Ramsar site would be beneficial.

First Investigation of the Spring Dietary Composition of Siberian Musk Deer (Moschus moschiferus) Using Next-Generation Sequencing.

Understanding the dietary composition of the Siberian musk deer (Moschus moschiferus) is critical for informing conservation efforts, particularly given the species' vulnerable status in the Republic of Korea and its limited ecological data. Previous dietary studies have relied on conventional methods with limitations in taxonomic precision, hindering comprehensive insights into their feeding ecology. To address this gap, we used Next-Generation Sequencing to analyze 16 fecal samples collected in April from Gangwon Province, the habitat of M. moschiferus. Our results revealed 213 unique plant species, with Morus, Quercus, and Prunus accounting for the majority of the diet. Notably, nearly half of the identified genera, including Morus, Actinidia, and Viscum, were reported for the first time as dietary plants of M. moschiferus. This study confirms that M. moschiferus is a concentrate feeder that primarily relies on woody plants (98.8%) and may exhibit tree-climbing behavior to access parasitic shrubs like Viscum. These findings provide a foundation for future dietary analysis research and serve as valuable baseline data for the long-term conservation of M. moschiferus.

Conservation Implications of Population Structure and Dynamics in Medicinal Arbor Albizia odoratissima on Hainan Island, China

Albizia odoratissima Benth is a perennial evergreen tree valued for its medicinal properties and is indigenous to the mountainous regions of southwestern China. The population status of A. odoratissima has been sparsely studied. This study systematically evaluated the population structure and dynamics of A. odoratissima in the central mountainous region of Hainan Island, China, with the objective of informing the development of sustainable conservation strategies for the ecological restoration of its natural populations. Using the methodologies of population ecology, including the development of static life tables, population survival curves, population dynamics analysis, and time-series predictions, the results indicated that the populations of A. odoratissima on Hainan Island were geographically isolated into three groups. The age class distribution revealed that young, middle-aged, and mature individuals accounted for 5.73%, 74.94%, and 19.33%, respectively, suggesting a declining trend in the population. Moreover, the A. odoratissima population on Hainan Island was highly sensitive to anthropogenic disturbances, with significant increases in mortality rates observed at both the juvenile and mature stages. These results were likely due to the intraspecific and interspecific competitions, as well as external factors including human-induced disturbances, climate variability, and extreme weather events, which might potentially lead to the species’ future endangerment. Based on the current status of the A. odoratissima population, we develop adaptive management and forbid anthropogenic deforestation, conserving in situ and expanding populations, protecting ex situ germplasm resources, and replanting artificially, in order to manage the long-term conservation and management of A. odoratissima.

In vitro Genebank of India for safe conservation of horticultural plant diversity: four decades of milestones.

India is a treasure trove of biological diversity with its plant genetic resources playing a crucial role in the crop improvement serving as the foundation for the country's sustainable food and nutritional security. India's in vitro genebank (IVG) is part of the National Genebank at the Indian Council of Agricultural Research-National Bureau of Plant Genetic Resources (ICAR-NBPGR). The IVG houses distinctive multi-crop repository that utilizes several tissue culture techniques for short- to medium-term storage in in vitro active genebank (IVAG) and cryoconservation approaches for long-term storage in in vitro base genebank (IVBG). In IVAG, germplasm is conserved under normal and slow growth conditions with a subculture period of 1-36months depending on the species/genotype and conservation approach. Currently, the IVAG holds 2,038 germplasm accessions (69 genera and 171 species) from six crop groups, viz. (a) tropical fruit crops (449), (b) temperate and minor tropical fruit crops (408), (c) tuber crops (530), (d) bulbous and ornamental crops (187), (e) medicinal and aromatic plants (232), and (f) spices and industrial crops (232). For long-term conservation, in vitro produced explants of various species are cryopreserved at the IVBG in liquid nitrogen. Utilizing various cryoconservation procedures, 347 accessions from several crop groups have been successfully conserved in the IVBG. Over the past four decades, in vitro conservation has been accomplished by the above mentioned cutting-edge techniques. This report highlights the efforts and achievements of the National Genebank in conserving horticultural genetic resources through in vitro and cryoconservation.

Advancing primate conservation: a global collection of education and outreach initiatives.

This special issue on Primate Conservation Education and Outreach assembles the largest collection of conservation education interventions focused on primates to date, aiming to highlight the urgent need for educational initiatives to mitigate the ongoing threats to primate species. Despite decades of warnings from primatologists about the escalating risks to primate populations, including habitat loss, illegal hunting, and human-primate conflict, conservation education remains underdeveloped in the field of primatology. This issue explores 20 diverse case studies from across the globe, with contributions from field sites in Central and South America, Africa, and Asia. The education programmes discussed range in scope, duration, and target audience, with many linked to long-term research projects. Akey finding is the significant variation in programme design and evaluation methods, with challenges in assessing long-term behaviour change and conservation impact. The issue emphasises the importance of creative, participatory approaches such as puppet shows, community outreach, and place-based education, which have proven successful in fostering deeper engagement and understanding of primate conservation. Despite the barriers faced, including limited funding and cultural challenges, the authors stress the importance of both small-scale and long-term educational interventions in the global effort to protect primates. This volume serves as a call to action for primatologists to integrate conservation education into their research and outreach efforts, thereby contributing to the preservation of our closest living relatives.

Inferring Long-Term and Short-Term Determinants of Genetic Diversity in Honey Bees: Beekeeping Impact and Conservation Strategies.

Bees are vital pollinators in natural and agricultural landscapes around the globe, playing a key role in maintaining flowering plant biodiversity and ensuring food security. Among the honey bee species, the Western honey bee (Apis mellifera) is particularly significant, not only for its extensive crop pollination services but also for producing economically valuable products such as honey. Here, we analyzed whole-genome sequence data from four Apis species to explore how honey bee evolution has shaped current diversity patterns. Using Approximate Bayesian Computation, we first reconstructed the demographic history of A. mellifera in Europe, finding support for postglacial secondary contacts, therefore predating human-mediated transfers linked to modern beekeeping. However, our analysis of recent demographic changes reveals significant bottlenecks due to beekeeping practices, which have notably affected genetic diversity. Black honey bee populations from conservatories, particularly those on islands, exhibit considerable genetic loss, highlighting the need to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of current conservation strategies. Additionally, we observed a high degree of conservation in the genomic landscapes of nucleotide diversity across the four species, despite a divergence gradient spanning over 15 million years, consistent with a long-term conservation of the recombination landscapes. Taken together, our results provide the most comprehensive assessment of diversity patterns in honey bees to date and offer insights into the optimal management of resources to ensure the long-term persistence of honey bees and their invaluable pollination services.

Long-Term Conservation Agriculture Improves Soil Quality in Sloped Farmland Planting Systems.

Conservation agriculture practices (CAs) are important under the increasingly serious soil quality degradation of sloping farmlands worldwide. However, little is known about how the long-term application of CAs influences soil quality at different slope positions. We conducted field experiments for a watershed sloping farmland's mainstream planting systems in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of China. Orchard plots were treated with a conventional citrus planting pattern (C-CK), citrus intercropped with white clover (WC), citrus orchard soil mulched with straw (SM) and citrus intercropped with Hemerocallis flava contour hedgerows (HF). Crop field plots were treated with a conventional wheat-peanut rotation (W-CK), a wheat-peanut rotation intercropped with Toona sinensis contour hedgerows (TS), a wheat-peanut rotation intercropped with alfalfa contour hedgerows (AF) and a ryegrass-sesame rotation (RS). We collected soil samples from the plots at the upper, middle and lower slope positions and measured their soil properties after a nine-year experiment. We found that (1) CAs improved the soil properties at the three slope positions; (2) the effect of the CAs on the soil properties was more significant than that on the slope position; and (3) the soil quality index at the upper, middle and lower slope positions increased by 29.9%, 45.8% and 33.3%, respectively, for WC; 48.7%, 39.5% and 27.1%, respectively, for SM; and 21.7%, 25.5% and 21.6%, respectively, for HF compared to C-CK; as well as 18.7%, 23.7% and 20.4%, respectively, for TS; 16.9%, 18.6% and 16.5%, respectively, for AF; and 16.1%, 13.0% and 13.9%, respectively, for RS compared to W-CK. These findings suggest that long-term CA application enhances the soil quality of the slope position, of which SM and TS applied to orchards and crop fields, respectively, are the most effective.

Influence of landscape and seasonality on roadkill of wild vertebrates in the surroundings of a protected area of the high-altitude Atlantic Forest

Roadkill is one of the main threats associated with highways, directly contributing to the depletion of natural populations. Here we establish the effect of landscape, seasonality and climatic variables on roadkill of wild vertebrates on two highways associated with Pedra Azul State Park (PEPAZ), state of Espírito Santo, southeastern Brazil. The highways BR-262 and ES-164 (20 km stretch in each road) were sampled monthly, between January and December 2015, totaling 60 days sampled/stretch. A total of 355 roadkilled vertebrates (Amphibia = 10; Reptilia = 40; Aves = 155; Mammalia = 149; undetermined = 1) distributed among at least 82 taxa were recorded (Amphibia = 4; Reptilia = 11; Aves = 47; Mammalia = 20). The roadkill rate was equivalent between highways, but birds were the most affected group on the ES-164 and mammals on the BR-262. A greater number of records were obtained during the rainy season for both highways. Temperature had a positive influence on the monthly roadkill rate, but no influence was observed from precipitation. The distance from water bodies and the type of land use and occupation influenced the roadkill records distribution. Roadkill of mammals was associated with areas of overgrown vegetation; birds with agricultural crops and built-up areas; and reptiles marginally with pasture areas. The effect of the highways was complementary because they affected the vertebrate classes differently. This could have severe impacts on biodiversity, highlighting that PEPAZ is part of an important ecological corridor of the Atlantic Forest in Espírito Santo. Speed control and installation of warning signs and wildlife crossing mechanisms are recommended to promote the long-term conservation of the regional biota.

Connecting young people to Country through marine turtle conservation: exploring three case studies in Western Australia’s Pilbara region

The world’s oceans are confronting many challenges, which are affecting threatened species such as marine turtles. To address these challenges, it is imperative that pro-environmental behaviors are cultivated in the wider community, and young people are provided opportunities to overcome socio-economic and geographical barriers to meaningfully experience nature. In the Pilbara region of Western Australia, Aboriginal Traditional Custodians share a deep connection and caring relationship with Country. Collaboration and partnership between Traditional Custodians and conservation programs are essential for empowering Aboriginal young people as future conservation leaders and to achieve long-term conservation goals. Western Australia’s Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, a government department, has been working with schools and community organisations across the Pilbara to support access to remote Sea Country and marine turtle conservation experiences for Aboriginal young people. By examining three case studies demonstrating the collaboration among the North West Shelf Flatback Turtle Conservation Program, West Pilbara Turtle Program, Waalitj Foundation, Onslow School and Roebourne District High School, this article explores the importance of building partnerships, providing additional on-Country opportunities for young people, and enabling future pathways for the longevity of long-term conservation programs and the health of the environment and communities.

Assessing the impact of environmental education in a critical orangutan landscape in West Kalimantan, Indonesia.

Gunung Palung National Park (GPNP) and the surrounding region in West Kalimantan, Indonesia, host a significant population of Critically Endangered Bornean orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus wurmbii) amidst various conservation challenges, including habitat destruction, the illegal pet trade, and human-wildlife conflict. The Gunung Palung Orangutan Conservation Program (GPOCP) employs diverse strategies, including environmental education, to address these challenges. Environmental education helps to connect local students with conservation efforts, educate them about endangered endemic species, and highlight the relationship between human behavior and ecosystem health. Environmental education is critical in fostering sustainable behaviors and raising awareness about conservation issues, particularly in areas where human activities threaten primate biodiversity. Such programs can promote long-term conservation outcomes by engaging communities and empowering individuals to take action. Here, we review the effectiveness of GPOCP's environmental education initiatives, focusing on school visits conducted between 2016 and 2023 that concentrated on orangutan conservation. We analyze data from standardized pre- and post-activity surveys administered to students participating in puppet shows and lectures. Results indicate a substantial increase in knowledge and positive shifts in attitudes toward orangutan conservation among students. However, challenges remain in evaluating long-term behavioral changes and the relative contribution of different conservation interventions. Future efforts will explore tailored educational approaches and impact assessments to enhance conservation outcomes and foster community engagement in safeguarding Bornean orangutans and their habitat.

Time Series Decomposition of Land Surface Temperature for Long-Term Trend Forecasting and Impact on Nesting Sea Turtle Habitats in the Arabian Gulf

Abstract Improving land surface temperature (LST) modeling is vital for mitigating climate change effects on various ecosystems and marine habitats such as important sea turtle habitats. Over the past decade, extreme temperatures have likely significantly affected nesting sea turtle habitats in the Arabian Gulf, with predominantly female hatchlings creating an imbalance in the sex ratio. Such shifts have profound implications for these habitats’ long-term survival and conservation management. This study leverages statistical machine learning models to measure ongoing temporal variations in LST. We break down the LST time series into trend, seasonal, and noise components using classical decomposition methods like X11, Seasonal Extraction in autogressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) Time Series (SEATS), and the seasonal and trend decomposition using local regression (Loess) (STL) approach. The long-term trends in LST data are driven by climate change rather than seasonal fluctuations. We employed neural network autoregression (NNAR), bagged error, trend, and seasonal (BaggedETS), exponential smoothing models, and the STL method to project future LST values. We also explored advanced forecasting models like dynamic harmonic regression; trigonometric seasonality, Box–Cox transformation, autoregressive moving average (ARMA) errors, and trend and seasonal components (TBATS); and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) for comparative performance analysis. Extended warm periods were identified for Abu Ali Island between 2017 and 2018 through several decomposition methods, likely linked to the 2015/16 El Niño event. We also conducted a marine heatwave (MHW) analysis from 2010 to 2020, establishing a pronounced impact of the 2015/16 El Niño on the Arabian Gulf. In nesting beach environments with high LST, marine heatwaves could have a significant impact on sea turtle populations without human intervention such as artificially cooling the nest temperature. The SARIMA model showed higher forecasting precision for in situ weather data, while the NNAR model demonstrated superior performance with remotely sensed data.