LSTM Research Articles

Advancing smart city factories: enhancing industrial mechanical operations via deep learning techniques

In the contemporary realm of industry, the imperative for influential and steadfast systems to detect anomalies is critically recognized. Our study introduces a cutting-edge approach utilizing a deep learning model of the Long-Short Term Memory variety, meticulously crafted for real-time surveillance and mitigation of irregularities within industrial settings. Through the careful amalgamation of data acquisition and analytic processing informed by our model, we have forged a system adept at pinpointing anomalies with high precision, capable of autonomously proposing or implementing remedial measures. The findings demonstrate a marked enhancement in the efficacy of operations, with the model’s accuracy surging to 95%, recall at 90%, and an F1 score reaching 92.5%. Moreover, the system has favorably impacted the environment, evidenced by a 25% decline in CO2 emissions and a 20% reduction in water usage. Our model surpasses preceding systems, showcasing significant gains in speed and precision. This research corroborates the capabilities of deep learning within the industrial sector. It underscores the role of automated systems in fostering more sustainable and efficient operations in the contemporary industrial landscape.

Optimised Deep Learning for Time-Critical Load Forecasting Using LSTM and Modified Particle Swarm Optimisation

Short-term electric load forecasting is critical for power system planning and operations due to demand fluctuations driven by variable energy resources. While deep learning-based forecasting models have shown strong performance, time-sensitive applications require improvements in both accuracy and convergence speed. To address this, we propose a hybrid model that combines long short-term memory (LSTM) with a modified particle swarm optimisation (mPSO) algorithm. Although LSTM is effective for nonlinear time-series predictions, its computational complexity increases with parameter variations. To overcome this, mPSO is used for parameter tuning, ensuring accurate forecasting while avoiding local optima. Additionally, XGBoost and decision tree filtering algorithms are incorporated to reduce dimensionality and prevent overfitting. Unlike existing models that focus mainly on accuracy, our framework optimises accuracy, stability, and convergence rate simultaneously. The model was tested on real hourly load data from New South Wales and Victoria, significantly outperforming benchmark models such as ENN, LSTM, GA-LSTM, and PSO-LSTM. For NSW, the proposed model reduced MSE by 91.91%, RMSE by 94.89%, and MAPE by 74.29%. In VIC, MSE decreased by 91.33%, RMSE by 95.73%, and MAPE by 72.06%, showcasing superior performance across all metrics.

A groundwater level spatiotemporal prediction model based on graph convolutional networks with a long short-term memory

ABSTRACT The performance of regional groundwater level (GWL) prediction model hinges on understanding intricate spatiotemporal correlations among monitoring wells. In this study, a graph convolutional network (GCN) with a long short-term memory (LSTM) (GCN–LSTM) model is introduced for GWL prediction utilizing data from 16 wells located in the northeastern Xiangtan City, China. This model is designed to account for both the hybrid temporal dependencies and spatial autocorrelations among wells. It consists of two parts: the spatial part employs GCNs to extract spatial characteristics from a spatial self-similarity weight matrix and an attribute self-similarity wight matrix among wells; the temporal part utilizes a LSTM module to capture the temporal patterns of GWL sequences, along with monthly precipitation and temperature data. This model dynamically predicts changes in groundwater levels, achieving higher accuracy on average compared to single-well predictions using LSTM. By incorporating both temporal dependencies and spatial autocorrelations, the GCN–LSTM model demonstrated an average improvement in goodness-of-fit of approximately 11.21% over the LSTM-based model for individual wells. Its application holds significant reference value for the sustainable utilization and development of groundwater resources in Xiangtan City.

Long‐Term Estimation of SoH Using Cascaded LSTM‐RNN for Lithium Batteries Subjected to Aging and Accelerated Degradation

ABSTRACTAccurate estimation of state of health (SoH) of the battery over long‐term is a critical challenge for the battery management systems in electric vehicles. This is due to the challenges in accurately modeling the accelerated aging and degradation phenomena caused by diverse operating conditions of the battery. This paper presents a cascaded recurrent neural networks (RNN) with long short‐term memory (LSTM) to estimate the internal resistance and SoH, taking account of various abnormal operating conditions of the battery. A datasheet‐based degradation model of the battery is developed using fade equations. The training and validation data set for LSTM‐RNN are generated by subjecting the battery model to various factors that cause accelerated degradation, such as fast charging, varying operating temperatures, overutilization, and cell imbalance. The cascaded LSTM‐RNN is trained to estimate SoH only once after the completion of every charge–discharge cycle. The training error index parameters of the proposed SoH estimator are well within 1%, demonstrating the reliability and robustness of the estimator to diverse operating conditions of the battery.

Machine learning model to study effects of lightweight racket design on elbow and shoulder loading during tennis serve

Tennis is a famous sport in which players perform high-speed, repetitive movements that cause significant load to the shoulder and elbow joints, particularly during tennis serve. Further, the racket design also plays a key role in the efficiency of the player’s performance through the level of mechanical stress that it places on the player’s elbow joints. Therefore, analyzing the biomechanical impact of racket types on the load it renders on elbow and shoulder loading will help optimize the player’s performance and avoid the possibility of risk. However, there are limited studies that are related to the effect of differences in racket mass, balance, and inertia over joint force and moment during the phases of serve. To address this gap, this study employs a Machine Learning (ML)-based model to impact three types of racket such as head-light, even-balanced, and head-heavy, towards joint moments and forces in the shoulder, elbow, and wrist during tennis serves. The kinematic data was collected from eight tennis players, and the collected data was processed using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network to predict joint moments and forces based on racket parameters and segmental kinematics. The results have shown that racket design has an excellent impact on a player’s performance through its impact on shoulder and elbow joints. The head-light racket resulted in a shoulder adduction moment of 9.4 ± 0.8 Nm and a shoulder joint force of 130.2 ± 9.4 N during the acceleration phase, compared to the head-heavy racket, which generated a higher adduction moment of 11.3 ± 1.0 Nm and a shoulder force of 162.3 ± 11.4 N. The even-balanced racket showed intermediate values, with an adduction moment of 10.2 ± 0.9 Nm and a shoulder force of 142.5 ± 9.9 N.

An improved prediction method for BDS-3 SISA parameters and the preliminary performance evaluation

Abstract The ephemeris accuracy parameters broadcast in the ephemeris messages are commonly utilized as an alarm threshold for the signal-in-space ranging errors (SISRE) of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). Accurately predicting the orbit and clock errors of broadcast ephemeris, and converting the prediction errors into broadcast ephemeris accuracy parameters using a robust model, is important for the integrity service of GNSS. The BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS-3) broadcasts four ephemeris accuracy parameters, namely SIS A oe , SIS A ocb , SIS A oc1 , and SIS A oc2 , to represent the standard deviations of the satellite orbit and clock prediction errors in the broadcast ephemeris. The probability that the broadcast ephemeris SISRE exceeds 4.42 times the signal-in-space accuracy (SISA) without triggering an alarm in time is expected to be less than 1 × 10−5. In addition to accurately enveloping the broadcast ephemeris SISRE, SISA should also reduce the over-envelopment margin over SISRE to accurately express the system service accuracy. Thus, an accurate prediction of orbit and clock errors in the broadcast ephemeris is crucial for calculating the SISA. An orbit and clock error prediction method based on the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is proposed in this study. This method uses historical satellite orbit and clock errors, derived from the difference between precise and broadcast ephemeris, to train an LSTM neural network. The trained LSTM model is then used to predict the orbit and clock errors for the next 24 h. The predicted errors are used to calculate the corresponding SISA for the broadcast ephemeris. The results indicate that the 24 h accuracies of the predicted orbit and clock errors are less than 0.06 m and 0.25 m, respectively. The calculated SISA can completely envelop the actual broadcast ephemeris SISRE, achieving 100% coverage while also decreasing the over-envelopment margin by 80%. Furthermore, the horizontal protection level and vertical protection level calculated using the corresponding SISA are reduced by approximately 14%, meeting the integrity requirements set by the International Civil Aviation Organization for Approach with Vertical Guidance I. The proposed method enhances the timeliness of SISA parameter calculation and the integrity and availability of the BDS-3 service, serving as a crucial reference value for safety critical applications such as civil aviation services.

Using DL Models in the Service Layer to Enhance the Fault Tolerance of IoT Networks

In an IoT network, the networked servers form a service layer, providing services to the users and the devices. The request to the service servers is routed through the gateway on one side of the services layer and the networked controllers on the other side. Data are transported from the sensors/devices through cluster heads en route to base stations and the controllers to the service servers, where the data are processed and sent for storage in the cloud through gateways. When any device is broken down or becomes non-operational, the inputs are not sensed, creating a gap in the data. The data transmitted from the devices would then become an incomplete flow; such data are not suitable for undertaking data analytics or predictions. The missing data must be first identified as the data flow and estimated or predicated to complete the data before they are transmitted through the cloud for storage and subsequent retrievals. This paper proposes a recurrent (RNN) neural network to predict the missing data. Two models are tested to predict the missing data: the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) model and a long short-term memory (LSTM)-based RNN model. The RNN-based model provides 99.66% accurate data prediction compared to other models.

Prediction and assessment of meteorological drought in southwest China using long short-term memory model

Abstract Drought prediction is crucial for mitigating risks and designing measures to alleviate its impact. Machine learning models have been widely applied in the field of drought prediction in recent years. This study concentrated on predicting meteorological droughts in southwest China, a region prone to frequent and severe droughts, particularly in areas with sparse meteorological station coverage. The long short-term memory (LSTM) predictive model, which is a deep learning model, was constructed by calculating standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) values based on 144 weather station observations from 1980 to 2020. The 5-fold cross-validation method was used for the hyperparameter optimization of the model. The LSTM model underwent comprehensive assessment and validation through multiple methods. This included the use of several accuracy assessment indicators and a comparison of results. The comparison covered different drought characteristics among the LSTM predictive model, the benchmark random forest (RF) predictive model, the historical drought situations, and the calculated SPEI values based on observations from 144 weather stations. The results showed that the training results of the LSTM predictive model basically agreed with the SPEI values calculated from weather station observations. The model-predicted variation trend of SPEI values for 2020 was similar to the variation in SPEI values calculated based on weather station observations. On the test set, the coefficient of determination (R 2), the root mean square error, the explained variance score, the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, and the Kling–Gupta efficiency were 0.757, 0.210, 0.802, 0.761, and 0.212, respectively. The total consistency rate of the drought grade was 59.26%. The spatial correlation distribution of SPEI values between LSTM model prediction and calculation from meteorological stations in 2020 was more than 0.5 for most regions. The correlation coefficients exceeded 0.6 in western Tibet and Chengdu Plains. Compared to the RF model, the LSTM model excelled in all five performance evaluation metrics and demonstrated a higher overall consistency rate for drought categories. The Kruskal–Wallis test for both the LSTM and RF models all indicated no significant difference in the distributions between the predicted and observed data. Scatter plots revealed that the prediction accuracy for both models in 2020 was suboptimal, with the SPEI showing a comparatively narrow range of values. Nonetheless, the LSTM model significantly outperformed the RF model in terms of prediction accuracy. In summary, the LSTM model demonstrated good overall performance, accuracy, and applicability. It has the potential to enhance dynamic drought prediction in regions with complex terrain, diverse climatic factors, and sparse weather station networks.

Physics-guided fault diagnosis method for proton exchange membrane fuel cells based on LSTM neural network

In this paper, we propose a novel hybrid method for fault diagnosis of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells (PEMFCs) based on the combination of a physics-based model and a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network. By incorporating the physics-based model in the fault diagnosis algorithm, we can access to several process variables not directly measured through sensors but related to the state of the PEMFC stack. The model estimates are subsequently combined with signals measured on the PEMFC stack and inputted to a LSTM neural network. The performance of the physics-guided LSTM is evaluated on an extensive dataset comprising a thousand hours of operation of a PEMFC stack under dynamic load profiles, proving the enhanced capability of the proposed fault diagnosis method in capturing complex fault patterns. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the proposed method in dealing with PEMFC aging is tested by using data from the initial phase of stack operation for algorithm training and reserving the data from the aged stack operation for the testing phase. The experimental results reveal that the proposed physics-guided LSTM method allows for a significant amelioration over purely data-driven LSTM.

Combining long short-term memory and shape superposition for estimating moving load-induced global responses of bridges

Recently, a method of estimating the global responses of bridges was introduced, by combining a deep neural network (DNN) and shape superposition method (SSM). This DNN-SSM model demonstrated superior performance to the traditional estimation method based on the least-squares method. However, the application and validation of this approach have been restricted to static problems. For bridges, the dynamic effect induced by the moving load requires consideration. Therefore, this study proposes a long short-term memory (LSTM)-SSM model to improve the estimation performance for dynamic global responses. The LSTM-SSM model consists of LSTM layers, followed by fully connected DNN layers and a post-process part based on SSM. Limited displacement, slope, and strain data were used as the inputs, and the global displacement, slope, and strain were estimated. To validate the effectiveness and improvement of the LSTM-SSM model, a numerical model of a cable-stayed bridge was used to compare the proposed model with the previously developed DNN-SSM model. The validation results indicated that the LSTM-SSM model can provide more accurate estimates of the dynamic global response than DNN-SSM models. Finally, a technique for structural safety monitoring based on the proposed method was introduced.

Harnessing Deep Learning for Enhanced MPPT in Solar PV Systems: An LSTM Approach Using Real-World Data

Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) is essential for maximizing the efficiency of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. While numerous MPPT methods exist, practical implementations often lean towards conventional techniques due to their simplicity. However, these traditional methods can struggle with rapid fluctuations in solar irradiance and temperature. This paper introduces a novel deep learning-based MPPT algorithm that leverages a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) deep neural network (DNN) to effectively track maximum power from solar PV panels, utilizing real-world data. The simulations of three algorithms—Perturb and Observe (P&O), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and the proposed LSTM-based MPPT—were conducted using MATLAB (2021b) and RT_LAB (24.3.3) with an OPAL-RT simulator for real-time analysis. The data used for this study were sourced from NASA/POWER’s Native Resolution Daily Data of solar irradiation and temperature specific to Imphal, Manipur, India. The obtained results demonstrate that the LSTM-based MPPT system achieves a superior power tracking accuracy under changing solar conditions, producing an average output of 74 W. In comparison, the ANN and P&O methods yield average outputs of 57 W and 62 W, respectively. This significant improvement, i.e., 20–30%, underscores the effectiveness of the LSTM technique in enhancing the power output of solar PV systems. By incorporating real-world data, valuable insights into solar power generation specific to the selected location are provided. Furthermore, the outputs of the model were verified through real-time simulations using the OPAL-RT simulator OP4510, showcasing the practical applicability of this approach in real-world scenarios.

A Comparative Study on the Monitoring of Abnormal Power Consumption Behavior by Different Models

This paper investigates and compares the performance of three distinct models for monitoring abnormal electricity consumption behavior: Support Vector Regression (SVR), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and a novel model that incorporates an attention mechanism known as PSO-ATT-LSTM (PAL), which integrates a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm with an attention mechanism into the LSTM framework. The PAL model is specifically designed to enhance forecasting accuracy by optimizing the network parameters through PSO and focusing on significant temporal features via the attention mechanism. This design allows PAL to outperform the other two models in predicting future electricity consumption, particularly in identifying anomalous patterns. The study utilizes a dataset with hourly electricity consumption values and evaluates the models using metrics such as Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The experimental results demonstrate the superiority of the PAL model in terms of predictive accuracy and its ability to capture abnormal consumption behaviors more effectively than SVR and LSTM.

Machine learning for high-performance solar radiation prediction

This research paper focuses on predicting surface solar radiation for 45 glaciers situated in two locations within the northern regions of Pakistan: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and Gilgit. The study investigates the relationship between input parameters, including date, temperature, pressure, precipitation, and aerosol, and solar radiation output parameters. The data used for this analysis is sourced from the CERES dataset, covering the period from 2001 to 2021. The study considers eight glaciers in KPK and thirty-seven glaciers in Gilgit to provide a comprehensive understanding of the surface solar radiation patterns in these regions. Various machine learning algorithms are employed for this prediction, including linear regression (LR), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), feed-forward neural network (FFNN), and long short-term memory (LSTM). We considered the mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), normal root mean squared (nRMSE), and R-squared (R2) score as the performance metrics to assess the performance of the models. The results for the KPK location indicate that the FFNN algorithm achieved the highest accuracy with an MSE of 598.326, MAE of 18.9685, nRMSE of 0.06973, and R2 score of 0.916399. Similarly, the FFNN algorithm outperformed other models for the Gilgit location with an MSE of 738.78, MAE of 20.6887, nRMSE of 0.08071, and R2 score of 0.886703. This work contributes to understanding surface solar radiation patterns in the northern regions of Pakistan, specifically in KPK and Gilgit. This research has practical implications for renewable energy planning, climate change assessments, and glacier monitoring. By accurately predicting surface solar radiation, stakeholders can make informed decisions and develop sustainable strategies for these regions.

An Efficient Deep Learning Framework for Optimized Event Forecasting

There have been several catastrophic events that have impacted multiple economies and resulted in thousands of fatalities, and violence has generated a severe political and financial crisis. Multiple studies have been centered around the artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) approaches that are most widely used in practice to detect or forecast violent activities. However, machine learning algorithms become less accurate in identifying and forecasting violent activity as data volume and complexity increase. For the prediction of future events, we propose a hybrid deep learning (DL)-based model that is composed of a convolutional neural network (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), and an attention layer to learn temporal features from the benchmark the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). The GTD is an internationally recognized database that includes around 190,000 violent events and occurrences worldwide from 1970 to 2020. We took into account two factors for this experimental work: the type of event and the type of object used. The LSTM model takes these complex feature extractions from the CNN first to determine the chronological link between data points, whereas the attention model is used for the time series prediction of an event. The results show that the proposed model achieved good accuracies for both cases—type of event and type of object—compared to benchmark studies using the same dataset (98.1% and 97.6%, respectively).

Multi-Step Ahead Water Level Forecasting Using Deep Neural Networks

Stream gauge height (water level) is a significant indicator for forecasting future floods. Flooding occurs when the water level exceeds the flood stage. Predicting imminent floods can save lives, protect infrastructure, and improve road traffic management and transportation. Deep neural networks have been increasingly used in this domain due to their predictive capabilities in capturing complex features and interdependencies. This study employs four distinct models—Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), transformer, and LSTNet—with MLP serving as the baseline model to forecast water levels. The models are trained using data from 20 distinct river gages across the state of Missouri to ensure consistent performance. Random search optimization is employed for hyperparameter tuning. The prediction intervals are set at 4, 6, 8, and 10 (each interval equivalent to 30 min) to ensure that performance results are robust and not due to random weight initialization or suboptimal hyperparameters and are consistent throughout different prediction intervals. The findings of this study indicate that the LSTNet model leads to a better performance than the other models, with a median RMSE of 0.00724, 0.00959, 0.01204, and 0.01230 for the 4, 6, 8, and 10 intervals, respectively. As climate change leads to localized storms driven by atmospheric shifts, water level fluctuations are becoming increasingly extreme, further exacerbating data drift in real-world datasets. The LSTNet model demonstrates superior performance in terms of RMSE, MAE, and the correlation coefficient across all prediction intervals when forecasting water levels under data drift conditions.

PR-FCNN: a data-driven hybrid approach for predicting PM2.5 concentration

The atmosphere’s fine articulate Matter (PM2.5) poses various health-related risks. Even though multiple efforts have been made to lower the emissions of these substances, the mortality rate is continuously increasing, requiring immediate inclination of the scientific community towards the design and development of advanced predictive models. Conventional statistical approaches have become dormant due to their limitations in capturing the innate relationships between the pollutants, particularly for predicting PM2.5 concentrations. In contrast, machine and deep learning techniques have shown great potential for forecasting air quality, providing more accuracy than its predecessor techniques. The present study investigates the utilization of hybrid approaches by integrating machine learning models with deep learning models to improve the prediction capabilities of PM2.5 concentration. It uses datasets from the World Air Quality Index (WAQI) and the State of Global Air (SOGA) to analyze the performance of the models on both the daily and annual data, respectively. This ensures the model’s effectiveness on a diversified dataset. The present study implements Random Forest (RF), Polynomial Regression (PR), XGBoost, and Extra Tree Regressor (ETR) coupled with Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Bi-directional LSTM (Bi-LSTM) for obtaining optimized results. Finally, after a thorough investigation, the hybrid PR model coupled with FCNN (PR-FCNN) is found to be the best model with improved R-squared (R2) values, portraying its potential for predicting PM2.5 concentration accurately. Based on the experimentation, the preset study recommends implementing hybrid approaches, offering better predictive accuracy in forecasting air pollutants, especially PM2.5.

APPLICATION OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TECHNIQUES FOR ERROR PREVENTION AND QUALITY CONTROL IN MIG/MAG WELDING PROCESSES: A COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW

Welding techniques, particularly MIG/MAG (Metal Inert Gas/Metal Active Gas) processes, are essential for various industries, including automotive, construction, aerospace, and defense. Ensuring the quality and accuracy of welds is crucial for efficient production and product reliability. However, numerous issues can arise during MIG/MAG welding, often resulting in suboptimal quality. This study presents a comprehensive review of research efforts employing AI techniques to address errors and defects in MIG/MAG welding. The review systematically analyzes relevant studies published since 2018, focusing on three key aspects: datasets employed, methodologies and approaches adopted, and performance metrics reported. The findings reveal a significant adoption of both machine learning and deep learning techniques, with the choice of approach dependent on factors such as the nature of input data, welding process dynamics, and computational requirements. Deep learning models, particularly convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, have demonstrated superior performance in tasks like image-based defect detection and time-series analysis for quality prediction. However, traditional machine learning algorithms have also been utilized, often in conjunction with dimensionality reduction or feature selection techniques. The review highlights the diverse range of performance metrics employed, including accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, mean squared error (MSE), and root mean squared error (RMSE), with the selection contingent upon the specific task (classification or regression) and desired trade-off between different performance aspects. While many studies have reported promising results, with accuracy rates frequently exceeding 90%, challenges remain in real-world industrial settings, where factors such as noise, occlusions, and rapidly changing welding conditions can pose significant hurdles. This review serves as a comprehensive guide for researchers and practitioners working in the field of AI-assisted error prevention and quality control for MIG/MAG welding processes, highlighting current trends, methodologies, and future research directions.

A New Artificial Intelligence-Based System for Optimal Electricity Arbitrage of a Second-Life Battery Station in Day-Ahead Markets

Electric vehicles (EVs) are widely regarded as a crucial tool for carbon reduction due to the gradual increase in their numbers. However, these vehicles are equipped with batteries that have a limited lifespan. It is commonly stated that when the battery capacity falls below 70%, it needs to be replaced, and these discarded batteries are typically sent for recycling. Nevertheless, there is an opportunity to repurpose these worn-out batteries for a second life in electric power systems. This study focuses on the arbitrage situation of a second-life battery (SLB) facility in day-ahead electricity markets. This approach not only contributes to balancing supply and demand in the electric power system but also allows the battery facility to achieve significant gains. We propose an artificial intelligence system that integrates optimized deep learning algorithms for market price predictions with a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model for market participation and arbitrage decisions. Our system predicts prices for the next 24 h using Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series (N-HiTS) and decides when to enter the market using the MILP model and incorporating the predicted data and the statuses of the batteries. We compare the accuracy of our trained deep learning model with other deep learning models such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Neural Basis Expansion Analysis for Interpretable Time-Series Forecasting (N-BEATS). We test the efficiency of the proposed system using real-world Turkish day-ahead market data. According to the results obtained, this study concludes that substantial gains can be achieved with the predicted prices and the optimal operating model. A facility with a total battery energy capacity of 5.133 MWh can generate a profit of USD 539 in one day, showcasing the potential of our study. Our new system’s approach provides proof of concept of new research opportunities for the participation of SLB facilities in day-ahead markets.

Development of New Electricity System Marginal Price Forecasting Models Using Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Methods

The System Marginal Price (SMP) is the cost of the last unit of electricity supplied to the grid, reflecting the supply–demand equilibrium and serving as a key indicator of market conditions. Accurate SMP forecasting is essential for ensuring market stability and economic efficiency. This study addresses the challenges of SMP prediction in Turkey by proposing a comprehensive forecasting framework that integrates machine learning, deep learning, and statistical models. Advanced feature selection techniques, such as Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (mRMR) and Maximum Likelihood Feature Selector (MLFS), are employed to refine model inputs. The framework incorporates time series methods like Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Bidirectional LSTM (Bi-LSTM), and Convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) to capture complex temporal patterns, alongside models such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) for modeling non-linear relationships. Model performance was evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) across regular weekdays, weekends, and public holidays. XGBoost combined with MLFS consistently achieved the lowest MAPE values, demonstrating exceptional accuracy and robustness. Among all of the models, XGBoost combined with MLFS consistently achieved the lowest MAPE values, demonstrating superior accuracy and robustness. The results highlight the inadequacy of traditional models like ARIMA and SARIMA in capturing non-linear and highly volatile patterns, reinforcing the necessity of using advanced techniques for effective SMP forecasting. Overall, this study presents a novel and comprehensive approach tailored for complex electricity markets, significantly enhancing predictive reliability by incorporating economic indicators and sophisticated feature selection methods.

Ocean wave prediction using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) in Tuban Regency for fisherman safety

The fishing industry has a large role in the Indonesian economy, with potential profits in 2020 of around US$ 1.338 billion. Tuban Regency is one of the regions in East Java that contributes to the fisheries sector. Fisheries relate to the work of fishermen. Accidents in shipping are still a major concern. One of the natural factors that influence shipping accidents is the height of the waves. Fisherman safety regulations have been established by the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries and the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency. Apart from regulations, the results of wave height predictions using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) methods can help fishermen determine shipping departures, thereby reducing the risk of accidents. In this study, the Grid Search hyperparameter tuning process was used for both methods which were carried out on four location coordinates. Based on the analysis results, LSTM is superior in predicting wave height for the next 30 days because it can predict wave height at all three locations, with results at the first location (RMSE 0.045; MAE 0.029; MAPE 8.671%), second location (RMSE 0.051; MAE 0.035; MAPE 10.64%), and third location (RMSE 0.044; MAE 0.027; MAPE 7.773%), while XGBoost only has the best value at fourth location (RMSE 0.040; MAE 0.025; MAPE 7.286%).Hyperparameter tuning with gridsearch is used in LSTM and XGBoost to obtain optimal accuracyLSTM outperforms in three locations, while XGBoost outperforms in the fourth location.Advanced prediction techniques such as LSTM and XGBoost improve fishermen's safety by providing accurate wave height estimates, thereby reducing the possibility of shipping accidents.