Development of New Electricity System Marginal Price Forecasting Models Using Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Methods

Abstract

The System Marginal Price (SMP) is the cost of the last unit of electricity supplied to the grid, reflecting the supply–demand equilibrium and serving as a key indicator of market conditions. Accurate SMP forecasting is essential for ensuring market stability and economic efficiency. This study addresses the challenges of SMP prediction in Turkey by proposing a comprehensive forecasting framework that integrates machine learning, deep learning, and statistical models. Advanced feature selection techniques, such as Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (mRMR) and Maximum Likelihood Feature Selector (MLFS), are employed to refine model inputs. The framework incorporates time series methods like Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Bidirectional LSTM (Bi-LSTM), and Convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) to capture complex temporal patterns, alongside models such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) for modeling non-linear relationships. Model performance was evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) across regular weekdays, weekends, and public holidays. XGBoost combined with MLFS consistently achieved the lowest MAPE values, demonstrating exceptional accuracy and robustness. Among all of the models, XGBoost combined with MLFS consistently achieved the lowest MAPE values, demonstrating superior accuracy and robustness. The results highlight the inadequacy of traditional models like ARIMA and SARIMA in capturing non-linear and highly volatile patterns, reinforcing the necessity of using advanced techniques for effective SMP forecasting. Overall, this study presents a novel and comprehensive approach tailored for complex electricity markets, significantly enhancing predictive reliability by incorporating economic indicators and sophisticated feature selection methods.