Long-run Increase Research Articles

Das House Kapital: A Long-Run Theory of House Prices and Housing Wealth

Abstract Over the last 70 years, many advanced countries have experienced growing real house prices and an increasing housing wealth-to-income ratio. To explain these long-run patterns, this paper introduces a novel multi-sector growth model where housing services are produced using non-reproducible land and reproducible structures. Land is also employed in the non-housing sector. First, we identify two fundamental mechanisms driving the long-run increase in the real house price: (i) technological progress in the construction sector lags behind the technological progress of the rest of the economy and (ii) housing production is more land-intensive than non-housing production. Second, we study transitional dynamics for the US, UK, France, and Germany. Our calibrated model explains most of the observed increase in the housing wealth-to-income ratio since 1950. Counterfactual experiments identify initially low stocks of residential structures and non-residential capital as key exogenous drivers for this increase. The associated investment incentives led to a long-lasting construction boom and steadily increasing land scarcity, boosting residential land prices.

Renegotiating in good faith: How international treaty revisions can deepen cooperation

International agreements are often understood to help governments make credible commitments to future policy by limiting their ability to renege on their promises. Renegotiations of agreements are accordingly viewed as a threat to cooperation, since renegotiations call past commitments into question. But we know little about the frequency or nature of treaty renegotiations. When are international agreements renegotiated, and what effect does renegotiation have on international cooperation? Do most renegotiations indeed aim to backtrack on past commitments? Using the topical context of the trade regime, I collect new data on international treaty revisions, covering 310 preferential trade agreements signed since the year 2000. Around a quarter of these agreements have been amended in some form, and the supermajority of amendments result not in scaled back agreements, but in deeper commitments. Survival analysis shows that ‘like-minded’ countries with a shared language and similar voting patterns at the UN General Assembly are most likely to revise their commitments. In contrast, I do not find evidence to support the view of PTA revisions as ‘backsliding’ on past commitments. The effects of revisions on trade cooperation support the more cooperative view of revisions. An error-correction model shows revisions are associated with a long-run increase in export volumes. Renegotiations are not breakdowns in international relations, but opportunities for governments to renew their commitment to cooperation.

The looming fiscal reckoning: Tax distortions, top earners, and revenues

How should the U.S. confront the growing revenue needs driven by higher spending requirements? We investigate the mix of potential tax increases that generate a given revenue need at the minimum welfare cost and evaluate its macroeconomic impact. We do so in the context of a life-cycle growth model that captures key aspects of the earnings and wealth distributions and the non-linear shape of taxes and transfers in place. Our findings show that a proportional consumption tax combined with a lump-sum transfer to all households and a reduction in income tax progressivity consistently emerges as the best alternative to minimize welfare costs associated with a given increase in revenue. A 30% long-run increase in Federal tax revenue requires a consumption tax rate of 27.8%, a transfer of about 12% of mean household income to all households, and a reduction of top marginal income tax rates of more than 5 percentage points—output declines by 7.9% in the long run. While transfers are substantial, smaller transfers can accomplish most of the reduction in welfare costs. We find no role for wealth taxes in increasing revenues or minimizing welfare costs.

Toward sustainability: the role of social entrepreneurship in creating social-economic value in renewable energy social enterprises

This study explores the scope of social entrepreneurship and examines how social entrepreneurship contributes to sustainable development. Using analysis and relevant comparisons, it identifies main actors in the socialenterprise ecosystem, as well as how the entrepreneurial ecosystem adapts to social enterprises. Additionally, this study reveals how social enterprise applies in the renewable energy domain and identifies its main advantages, as well as major barriers and how to overcome those barriers. Fundamentally, this study’s findings have significant implications, for academics and practitioners in the social field. It highlights the role of social entrepreneurship as a balanced approach for long-run increases in quality of life, and it follows innovative techniques and methods to meet social needs, inherently motivated by ethical factors in equality and social fairness. On the other hand, main challenges that could confront social entrepreneurship include government regulations, problems adopting advanced technology and infrastructure, external competitive threats, limited access to public funds or loans, lack of awareness and acquisition of skills and knowledge, and inadequate knowledge about social impact measurement techniques. This research also illustrates how to adapt Isenberg's model for the entrepreneurial ecosystem in the social enterprises, which shows that the evolution of social enterprises does not occur in a vacuum; rather, the growth of social enterprise ecosystems occurs through interactions and networks with various actors in different fields such as financial politics, law, and academia. Finally, we review the practical applications of social enterprises by highlighting the main benefits of RE social enterprises: energy savings, community awareness, and the creation of favorable social externalities in rural and developing areas.

EFFECTS OF INTEREST RATE ON HOUSING PRICES IN KENYA

Purpose: The objective of the study was to examine the effect of interest rate on housing prices in Kenya.
 Methodology: The study used annual quantitative data for period 1960 to 2017. It employed Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) in determining the effects of negative and positive series of interest rates on housing prices. 
 Findings: A non-linear relationship between interest rates and housing prices was confirmed. Both the negative series and positive series of interest rate portrayed a negative effect on housing prices in short run. For long run, positive series have positive effect on housing prices while the negative series have negative effect.
 Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: A completely developed theoretical model putting together all meaningful inter-linkages between macroeconomic variable and price of housing is absent. The only ultimate way to address the issue is through empirical means. The findings indicate the presence of a non-linear relationship between interest rate and housing prices. The Central Bank of Kenya can change the Central Bank Reference rate (CBR rate) to alter the cost of money and consequently housing prices. In formulating a policy change, the Central Bank of Kenya should be cognizant of both the non-linear relationship existing between interest rates and prices of housing and the different magnitudes of effect of the positive and negative series on housing prices. When housing prices increase, either an increase or decrease the interest rate by the CBK will result to a downward movement in prices of housing in the short run, but at higher magnitude from the interest rate decrease. For the long-run, a decrease in interest rate will decrease housing prices, making housing affordable and improving the standards of living for citizens. Any upward movement in interest rate will result to a long-run increase in housing prices making housing more expensive and consequently out of reach of most citizens.

The nexus between foreign exchange and external debt in Indonesia: evidence from linear and nonlinear ARDL approaches

We examine the long- and short-term effects of foreign exchange on Indonesia's external debts. Employing an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing on quarterly data from 2010 to 2019 and testing for effect asymmetry, we found a long-run cointegrating relationship between the two variables. We also found a slow adjustment to an equilibrium state following a shock. Foreign exchange demonstrates a positive long-run effect on Indonesia's external debt, while in the short-run the effect is negative. Furthermore, we found an asymmetry in the elasticities of external debt with respect to rupiah-to-US dollar exchange rate fluctuations. The positive effect of Indonesian rupiah volatility on Indonesian external debt would be more severe when the rupiah appreciates against the dollar compared to a situation of rupiah depreciation. Therefore, although a depreciation of rupiah against the US dollar under a floating foreign exchange regime adopted by Indonesia since 1997 would in the long-run increase external debt, the impact is moderate. Any short-run movement of Indonesia's external debt following a shock would be pulled back to its long-run equilibrium path. We recommend that Indonesia should maintain a floating exchange regime and allow rupiah to depreciate at a moderate rate in the long-run.

The relationship between LNG price, LNG revenue, non-LNG revenue and government spending in China: An empirical analysis based on the ARDL and SVAR model

The present paper examines the dynamic relationship between liquefied natural gas (LNG) price, LNG revenue, non-LNG revenue and government spending (GOVS) in China using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and structural vector auto-regressive (SVAR) model. The goal of carrying out ARDL and SVAR together is to consolidate and strengthen the consistency of the results obtained from both approaches. ARDL results show that a positive influence relationship between both short-run and long-run LNG prices, LNG revenue, non-LNG revenue and GOVS, but there was no significant relationship between LNG price and GOVS. The SVAR also substantiates the results of ARDL test and provides further insight which shows that long-run fiscal synchronization hypothesis is evidenced between the LNG revenue and GOVS, while spend-tax hypothesis exists in the long-run between GOVS and non-LNG revenue. It is also evidenced that there is a complementary relationship between LNG revenue and non-LNG revenue, but this complementary role is stronger than the substitution role. Since non-LNG revenue has a greater impact on GOVS in the short-run, and the impact of LNG prices and LNG revenue on GOVS in the long-run increases over time, thus, GOVS mitigates the direct impact of non-LNG revenue to some extent, and that an appropriate allocation of spending in the non-LNG industry will have a positive impact on the development of the market economy supporting the Keynesian and spend-tax hypothesis.

Climate change literacy and migration potential: micro-level evidence from Africa

While a growing literature studies the effects of climate change on international migration, still only relatively little is known about the individual mechanisms linking migration decisions to climate change. We argue that climate change literacy (i.e., knowledge about climate change) is a major determinant of why some individuals consider migrating to other countries in response to climate change effects. In particular, climate change literacy helps individuals translate their perceptions of temperature changes into an understanding of these changes’ irreversible long-term consequences. We test this hypothesis using highly accurate geo-coded data for 37,000 individuals across 30 African countries. We show that climate change indeed leads to stronger migration intentions among climate literates only. Furthermore, we show that climate change only increases migration intentions among climate literates when it is approximated by long-run increases in local temperatures, but not when operationalized as changing heat wave or precipitation patterns. Further analyses show that climate literates are more likely to live in urban areas, have a higher news consumption, are highly educated, and have demanding occupations. Consequently, climate change may further deprive affected countries of valuable talent.

Business Cycles and Alcohol Consumption: Evidence from a Nonlinear Panel ARDL Approach

AbstractThis study revisits the relationship between economic variables and alcohol consumption from a macro perspective. Focusing explicitly on the asymmetries of the responsiveness of alcohol consumption during the expansion and contraction phases of the business cycle, asymmetric panel estimators are employed. We employ a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model for a panel of 24 countries for the period 1961 to 2014. Findings show that expansion leads to a long-term increase in average alcohol consumption, while during contraction, the level of average alcohol consumption persists. Expansion, together with a pronounced reduction in the unemployment rate could, however, lead to a net reduction of gross alcohol and wine consumption. Nonetheless, if the recession corresponds with a surge in unemployment, this leads to a long-run increase in the level of total gross alcohol consumption but a decrease in wine and beer consumption. Reduction in unemployment does not lead to a reduction in beer consumption, as pre-expansion levels of beer consumption persist. (JEL Classifications: E32, I19, L66)

Task specialization and cognitive skills: evidence from PIAAC and IALS

We study how the tasks conducted on the job relate to measures of cognitive skills using data from 18 countries participating in the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competences (PIAAC) and from 13 countries that also participate in the International Adult Literacy Study (IALS). We document two main findings. Firstly, individual-fixed effect models suggest that low-educated workers specializing in a particular set of basic tasks -say, in numeric relative to reading or ICT tasks- obtain 10% of one standard deviation higher scores in the domain of the PIAAC assessment most related to those tasks than in the rest -say, numeracy relative to literacy or problem-solving scores. Secondly, a synthetic cohort analysis using repeated literacy assessments in IALS and PIAAC indicates that, among the low-educated, long-run increases in the reading task component of jobs correlate positively with increases in cohort-level literacy scores. The results are stronger among low-skilled workers with less working experience or females -i.e., the set of workers who have had less time to sort in the labor market. An interpretation of our findings is that tasks conducted on the job help in building human capital but are imperfect substitutes of formal schooling.

Would carbon tax be an effective policy tool to reduce carbon emission in China? Policies simulation analysis based on a CGE model

ABSTRACT In China’s 2019 VAT reform, the VAT rate for manufacturing was adjusted from 16% to 13%. This inevitably promotes manufacturing production and triggers a substantial increase in carbon emissions. Would carbon tax be an effective policy tool to offset the negative externalities of the VAT reform on carbon emissions? We construct a multi-regional dynamic-recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate this possibility and to investigate the potential impacts on the economy, energy, and environment arising from this reform. The scenarios set includes the VAT reform policy, a carbon tax, and three combined policies. The results show that while China’s VAT reform is a positive fiscal policy that can boost long-lasting macroeconomic development, it has a negative impact on environmental protection. A carbon tax can significantly curb traditional energy consumption and emissions, but it would hinder economic development. Combined policies yield ‘double dividends’, that is, a long-run increase in macroeconomy and emissions reductions will be achieved, helping China to attain its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions goal. The combination of VAT reform and a stepped carbon tax maintains a more stable economic growth while sustaining carbon emission abatement.

Blue Collar Booms and American Mortality: Evidence from US Counties

We exploit the positive labor demand shocks driven by the fracking boom to investigate whether a long-run increase in economic opportunities reduces deaths of despair. Within a difference-in-differences analysis using variation in geological characteristics amenable to fracking, we demonstrate that fracking produces a sizeable increase in earnings and employment, especially for prime-aged males, while deaths of despair decline for young men, driven by suicides. Our estimates imply that fracking led to a 14% decline in male suicides in boom counties. These findings are not driven by differential trends in mortality unrelated to the fracking boom or confounding factors like migration.

The Role of Financial Development and Institutional Quality in Remittance-Growth Nexus in Asia

Workers' remittances represent up to 47 percent of gross domestic product in some Asian countries. Also, workers' remittances to the Asian region were estimated to reach $256 billion out of $483 billion received by developing countries. However, the growth effect of workers' remittance in Asia has, over the years, remained an open empirical question. To this end, this study examines the impact of workers' remittance and its interactive effects with financial development and institutional quality on economic growth. The study used a partial Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization procedure, which enable us to examine whether the marginal effect of workers' remittances depends on the degree of financial development and institutional quality. It also used a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator on panel dataset for a period of 1984-2010 from fifteen (15) remittance-receiving Asian countries. The results of this study shows that, workers' remittance impacts positively on economic growth in remittance-receiving Asian countries. But, the growth effect is higher in Asian countries with improved financial development but relatively weak institutions. According to the findings a percentage point increase in per capita workers' remittance leads to a long-run increase in per capita income by 0.103 percentage points. Moreover, the marginal effect of workers' remittance on economic growth rises with increase in the degree of financial development. But it declines with improvement in institutional environment. The partial derivative of economic growth with respect to workers' remittance at the mean level of financial development is 9.733. Similarly, the derivative evaluated at the minimum and maximum levels of financial development are found to be 1.355, and 32.087 respectively. The proportions of these derivatives at different levels of financial development showed that the marginal growth effect of workers' remittances rises with increase in the degree of financial development in remittance-receiving Asian countries. However, the partial derivative of economic growth with respect to workers' remittance at the mean level of institutional quality is –12.068. But, the partial derivative computed at the maximum and minimum levels of institutional quality take the value of –15.945 and –6.785 respectively. This suggests that the better institutional environment is in a country the lesser will be the growth impact of workers' remittance. Overall, the result suggests that workers' remittance and financial development work as complements in enhancing economic growth. However, the former and institutional quality act as substitutes in promoting economic growth.

Easterlin paradox revisited: Do increases in income bring higher levels of income satisfaction?

In this paper, we examine the relationship between income and income satisfaction in the pool of developed European economies, for the period between 2002 and 2018. Although the nexus between income and most subjective well-being indicators is frequently investigated in prior studies, the research investigating the relationship between income and income satisfaction over time is non-existing. We find that during the observed period real disposable household income significantly increased, while the satisfaction with household income remained constant. Furthermore, the analysis within hierarchical linear modeling shows that while between-country variations in income affect income satisfaction, this is not the case for income variations over time. Our findings support the notion of the Easterlin paradox, which indicates that in the long-run increases in income do not lead to higher levels of well-being. Explanations for such results may be found in the social comparison theory, hedonic adaptation theory and aspiration level theory: increasing income does not bring positive effects on income satisfaction due to relevance of the relative and not the absolute income, adaptation to income changes, or higher levels of aspirations resulting from income rise.

Wealth Trajectories Across Key Milestones: Longitudinal Evidence from Life-Course Transitions

Wealth varies considerably across the population and changes significantly over the lifecycle. In this paper, we trace out trajectories of wealth across several key life milestones, including marriage, homeownership, childbirth, divorce, disability, health shocks, retirement and widowhood using multiple decades of longitudinal panel data. We estimate both changes over the ten-year period before and after each milestone and assess whether those changes occur gradually or sharply after the milestone. We find evidence of significant long-run increases in wealth associated with homeownership and retirement, and significant long-run reductions in wealth associated with divorce, health shocks, and disability. In general, these changes appear to occur gradually rather than immediately after the milestone. Our results also indicate a large degree of heterogeneity across demographics, socioeconomic status and risk protection from insurance. In particular, those with lower levels of socioeconomic status and those without access to risk protection experience smaller wealth gains (or larger wealth losses) following life-course transitions. These results identify populations and life stages where individuals are most vulnerable to large reductions in wealth. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

The Effects of Structural Reforms: Evidence from Italy

This paper quantifies the macroeconomic effects of three major structural reforms (i.e., service sector liberalizations, incentives to innovation and civil justice reforms) undertaken in Italy in the last decade. We employ a novel approach that estimates the impact of each reform on total factor productivity and markups in an empirical micro setting and that uses these estimates in a structural general equilibrium model to simulate the macroeconomic impact of the reforms. Our results indicate that, accounting for estimation uncertainty, the increase in the level of GDP as of 2019 due to the sole effect of these reforms (ignoring all the other shocks that the Italian economy suffered in the same period) would be between 3% and 6%. The long-run increase in Italy's potential output would lie between 4% and 8%, with non-negligible effects on the labor market.

Prospects for the Development of Russian Export in the Context of Digitalization

The global trend in digitization has revolution the global economy and the way of doing business in our world currently. The digital trend is instrumental to globalization and specifically international trade. In Russia, the application of digitization is relatively low compared to other emerging economies. Therefore, it becomes interesting to assess the prospects of digitization in increasing export of the country and extensively, if such influence on export is industrial sensitive. To accomplish this, we assessed industrial export of Russia and used panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique to determine the impact of digitization on Russia’s export. By implementing Mean Group (MG) estimator which was adjudged to be suitable for this model through the Hausman test, it could be revealed that the impact of digitization is more intense in the short-run. The long-run effect is not statistically significant. Based on industries, digitization is significantly responsible for the export of Crude materials, inedible, except fuels; and Machinery and transport equipment in the short-run while also contributes to the long-run increase in export of Beverages and tobacco. The prospect can be increased when the country adapts and adopts more in the global trend.

Effects of International Crude Oil Prices on Energy Consumption in China

This study aims to test the effects of changes in international crude oil prices on changes in crude oil and hydropower use from 1965 to 2016. We suggest a cointegration relationship between the consumption of coal, crude oil, and hydropower and the real crude oil price. The real price is weakly exogenous for the long-run relationship and has impacted energy consumption accordingly. The long-run crude oil price elasticity of oil use is 0.460. Our estimate suggests a positive oil price–oil use relationship in China, which is dramatically different from many previous studies but is consistent with a few past studies. The growth in external oil prices may lead to a long-run increase in hydropower use in China, with a long-run price elasticity of 0.242. The long-run crude oil price elasticity of coal use is −0.930. Hence, increased oil and hydropower use could make up the energy supply–demand gap left over by the decreased coal use. Strictly planned domestic fuel prices and rapidly growing family incomes should diminish the negative effect of external oil prices on domestic crude oil demand. In the long run, given a strictly managed energy price, the growth in external oil prices is not likely to noticeably restrain the domestic oil demand or lead to a dramatic increase in coal use. We suggest that the large-scale development and utilization of hydropower may be inappropriate. Coal utilization policies must be reviewed. The appropriate increase in clean coal consumption could reduce the consumption of crude oil and hydropower; meanwhile, carbon emissions will not increase.

An introduction to the history of infectious diseases, epidemics and the early phases of the long-run decline in mortality.

This article, written during the COVID‐19 epidemic, provides a general introduction to the long‐term history of infectious diseases, epidemics and the early phases of the spectacular long‐term improvements in life expectancy since 1750, primarily with reference to English history. The story is a fundamentally optimistic one. In 2019 global life expectancy was approaching 73 years. In 1800 it was probably about 30. To understand the origins of this transition, we have to look at the historical sequence by which so many causes of premature death have been vanquished over time. In England that story begins much earlier than often supposed, in the years around 1600. The first two ‘victories’ were over famine and plague. However, economic changes with negative influences on mortality meant that, despite this, life expectancies were either falling or stable between the late sixteenth and mid eighteenth centuries. The late eighteenth and early nineteenth century saw major declines in deaths from smallpox, malaria and typhus and the beginnings of the long‐run increases in life expectancy. The period also saw urban areas become capable of demographic growth without a constant stream of migrants from the countryside: a necessary precondition for the global urbanization of the last two centuries and for modern economic growth. Since 1840 the highest national life expectancy globally has increased by three years in every decade.

The Financialization of Storable Commodities

I solve a dynamic equilibrium model of commodity spot and futures prices, incorporating an active futures market, heterogeneous risk-averse participants, and storage. When calibrated to data from the crude oil market, the model implies that financialization reduces the futures risk premium and increases correlation between futures open interest and the spot price level. However, there is no long-run increase in the mean spot price, and speculative storage generally attenuates financialization’s effect on spot price volatility. Therefore, financialization’s effect on spot price dynamics through storage arbitrage is likely modest, even if futures positions and risk premia are substantially altered.This paper was accepted by Gustavo Manso, finance.