Lockdown Policies Research Articles

Overlooked voices under strict lockdown: mapping humanitarian needs in 2022 Shanghai COVID-19 outbreak

ABSTRACT The COVID-19 pandemic that emerged in 2020 has caused significant health crises worldwide. Countries and regions around the globe have practiced different policies to contain the pandemic. One commonly adopted strategy is the Zero-COVID policy, comprising two phases: an initial suppression phase, typically enforced through lockdowns, followed by a sustained containment phase. However, sudden and strict lockdown policies in the suppression phase would inevitably bring unexpected challenges to vulnerable populations. There is a need to identify the emergent needs of underprepared, vulnerable populations under lockdowns to inform future pandemic management. In this study, the messages posted on an online mutual help-requesting platform during the 2022 Shanghai lockdown were leveraged as the near real-time agent to represent the side effects of the lockdown policy. This work explores the spatiotemporal correlation of the posts to their potential influencing factors and mines knowledge from the textual content of the posts. The results indicate that the help requests were clustered in downtown Shanghai. The access to profuse medical resources and public services may be hindered in districts with more stringent lockdown policies. The help requests’ content unveils a need for medication and groceries under lockdown. It also underscores that the elderly population was affected most by the lockdown. Based on these insights, policymakers can better anticipate and address the urgent residential needs that may arise in future lockdowns. This knowledge can contribute to more effective planning and preparedness efforts to mitigate the impact on vulnerable populations and ensure their well-being during similar crisis situations.

Maintaining essential health services during COVID-19 in Ghana: a qualitative study

IntroductionEvidence suggests that non-pharmaceutical interventions such as lockdown policies, restriction of movement and physical distancing to control the novel COVID-19 contributed to the decline in utilisation of essential health services....

The impact of the pandemic on environmental health from the perspective of energy sector

This study reviews the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on environmental health through the energy sector, based on the close relationship between energy, the economy, and the environment. The lockdown policy to contain the spread of the disease has hampered the global economy. Due to the close relationship between energy and the economy, the decline in global economic growth can be easily indicated by the decrease in world energy consumption. However, this study argues that this situation also opens the opportunity of restoring environmental health. Thus, the objective of the study is to find the opportunity and the lesson that can be learned from the COVID-19 pandemic. This study employs a qualitative method that combines descriptive analysis and literature review. It involves a review, processing, and observation of quantitative data (statistics) and qualitative data. This study finds that the pandemic opens opportunities to relieve the environment damaged by fossil-dominated energy consumption to pursue economic growth. However, this study also finds the challenge to overcome and lesson learned. The challenge is the two-way pressure from demand and prices that renewables must face. The lesson to be learned is mainly to reduce the dependency on fossil energy sources, primarily if it is imported. However, on top of that, the government must be able to seize the opportunities to overcome the challenge. Thus, this study is expected to provide an optimistic view of taking advantage of the blessing in disguise of the pandemic to rehabilitate environmental health through the energy sector.

Using LSTM to translate Thai sign language to text in real time

Between 2019 and 2022, as the Covid-19 pandemic unfolded, numerous countries implemented lockdown policies, leading most corporate companies to permit employees to work from home. Communication and meetings transitioned to online platforms, replacing face-to-face interactions. This shift posed challenges for deaf or hearing-impaired individuals who rely on sign language, using hand gestures for communication. However, it also affected those who can hear clearly but lack knowledge of sign language. Unfortunately, many online meeting platforms lack sign language translation features. This study addresses this issue, focusing on Thai sign language. The objective is to develop a model capable of translating Thai sign language in real-time. The Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architecture is employed in conjunction with MediaPipe Holistic for data collection. MediaPipe Holistic captures keypoints of hand, pose, and head, while the LSTM model translates hand gestures into a sequence of words. The model’s efficiency is assessed based on accuracy, with real-time testing achieving an 86% accuracy, slightly lower than the performance on the test dataset. Nonetheless, there is room for improvement, such as expanding the dataset by collecting data from diverse individuals, employing data augmentation techniques, and incorporating an attention mechanism to enhance model accuracy.

The Epidemiology of Inflammatory Bowel Diseases During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Comparison of Two Nationwide Cohorts.

We aimed to explore the epidemiology of inflammatory bowel diseases [IBD] in association with the COVID-19 pandemic in two countries with different lockdown policies. We utilized nationwide IBD cohorts in Israel and Sweden to explore the incidence of IBD during the pandemic compared to 3 years prior [2017-2019]. We examined temporal trends through the presence of inflection points by Joinpoint regression analysis and reported average monthly percentage changes [AMPC]. A total of 155 837 patients with IBD were included [Israel, 58 640; Sweden, 97 197]. The annual incidence of IBD was stable until 2019 in both countries but then decreased in Israel (AAPC -16.6% [95% confidence interval, CI, -19.9% to -10.0%]) and remained stable in Sweden (AAPC -3.5% [95% CI -11.6% to 3.7%]). When exploring the monthly incidence during the pandemic, in Israel the rate remained stable until November 2020 (AMPC 2.3% [95% CI -13.4% to 29.9%]) and then decreased sharply (AMPC -6.4% [95% CI -20.8% to 17.0%] until February 2021 and to -20.1% [95% CI -38.9% to -4.7%] from February 2021), while in Sweden, which had a less stringent lockdown policy, it decreased slightly until July 2020 (AMPC -3.3% [95% CI -21.6% to 20.3%]), but increased thereafter (AMPC 13.6% [95% CI -12.6% to 27.0%]). The change of incidence rate in Sweden occurred mainly in elderly-onset patients, the only population with significant restrictions during the pandemic. The incidence of IBD decreased during the pandemic in association with lockdowns, more so in Israel, which had more stringent policies. Future studies are needed to determine the long-term effect of the pandemic on IBD.

Effects of COVID-19 Policy on Air Quality in Lagos State, Nigeria

The decrease in air quality has been a major concern in the world for decades, and it has continued to worsen with toxic gases accumulating at exponential rates. The atmosphere has been heavily polluted as a result of anthropogenic activities, and these activities were greatly reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic when a lockdown policy was imposed. The study area, Lagos, is the state in Nigeria with the highest population count, making it most susceptible to the spread of the coronavirus and, as such, having the strictest policy regulations. This study seeks to evaluate the effects of the COVID-19 lockdown policy on air quality in Lagos State. The study adopted geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing techniques. Goggle Earth Engine (GEE) and Sentinel 5P (S5P) TROPOMI dataset were used to obtain results for carbon monoxide (CO), sulphur dioxide (SO2), aerosols (particulate matter), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) through JavaScript coding for the year before the lockdown (2019), the year of the lockdown (2020), and the year after the lockdown (2021). Results from the study revealed that the year 2020 had lower concentrations of aerosols and NO2, which increased in 2021 when human and vehicular activities were back to normal. SO2 and CO concen-trations were higher in the year 2020 than in year 2019 and 2021, suggesting that the COVID-19 lockdown was loosely implemented. It is recommended that policymakers invest in green technologies such as solar systems to minimize emissions, enforce strict emission standards for industries and vehicles to limit the release of air pollutants.

Study on the Vertical Distribution and Transport of Aerosols in the Joint Observation of Satellite and Ground-Based LiDAR

The mechanism of aerosol pollution transport remains highly elusive owing to the myriad of influential factors. In this study, ground station data, satellite data, ground-based LiDAR remote sensing data, sounding data, ERA5 reanalysis and a backward trajectory model were combined to investigate the formation process and optical properties of winter aerosol pollution in Beijing and surrounding areas. The analysis of ground station data shows that compared to 2019 and 2021, the pandemic lockdown policy resulted in a decrease in the total number of pollution days and a decrease in the average concentration of particulate matter in the Beijing area in 2020. The terrain characteristics of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) made it prone to northeast and southwest winds. The highest incidence of aerosol pollution in Beijing occurs in February and March during the spring and winter seasons. Analysis of a typical heavy aerosol pollution process in the Beijing area from 28 February to 5 March 2019 shows that dust and fine particulate matter contributed to the primary pollution; surface air temperature inversion and an average wind speed of less than 3 m/s were conducive to the continuous accumulation of pollutants, which was accompanied by the oxidation reaction of NO2 and O3, forming photochemical pollution. The heavy aerosol pollution was transmitted and diffused towards the southeast, gradually eliminating the pollution. Our results provide relevant research support for the prevention and control of aerosol pollution.

Mathematical Modelling and Computational Dynamics of the impact of Quasi-Lockdown Policy in Control of COVID-19 in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria

Determining the impact of a local control strategy, implemented to curtail the spread of COVID-19 has become obligatory to enable policy makers to combat the so-called long covid. This research used a deterministic SEIAHR-model, incorporating a logistic function to investigate the effect of quasi-lockdown policy during reemergence of corona virus pandemic. The notion of uniform convergence and fixed point theory were used to establish positive invariant region, ultimate boundedness, and existence of unique solution of the model. Nonlinear dynamical behaviours of the model such as stability and oscillating flows occurred at the disease free, and endemic equilibrium points. Using centre manifold theory, a trans-critical bifurcation with hysteresis effect were established, when quasi-lockdown policy was used as a control parameter in the model. A forward sensitivity analysis was conducted to unfold parameters that contributed significantly towards the spread and control of the infection. These parameters were estimated and fitted using least square technique, comparative to the observed real datasets adapted from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC). The polynomial regression model fitted the observed datasets with an average coefficient of determination given as R2 = 0.94. Simulations in form of phase space diagrams were used to validate the theoretic results. Epidemiologically, the model demonstrated that quasi-lockdown policy was necessarily a strategic policy to curb the spread of the infection, but not sufficient to eradicate the disease as the disease persisted endemically. It was shown that the basic reproduction number of the infection was within the critical threshold (R0 \(\le\) 1), when the lockdown policy was enforced strictly, but otherwise on relaxation of the lockdown policy (R0 \(\ge\) 1) Thus a relaxation of the quasi-lockdown policy leads to increase in susceptibility of the populace as the infection risk ratio increases in the model. Similarly, the model predicted that a pre-mature lifting of the lockdown policy could have led to high infectivity on the susceptible class and disastrous to healthy living of the citizens.

Changes and predictors of mental health of Chinese university students after the COVID-19 pandemic: A two-year study

BackgroundPsychological repurcussions of COVID-19 pandemic has received wide attention, but there's limited attention paid to psychological recovery afterwards. This study focuses on the changes and predictive factors of mental health of Chinese university students post-pandemic. MethodsThis study included 1175 Chinese undergraduate students sampled in May 2022 and May–June 2023, right before and after peaks of infections following the end of lockdown policy in China. The participants completed a survey of demographic variables, and three questionnaires: 12-item General Health Questionnaire, Positive Psychological Capital Questionnaire, and Prosocial Tendencies Measure. ResultsThe participants sampled in 2023 have significant lower GHQ scores and higher PPQ scores than those sampled in 2022, while there is no significant difference in PTM scores between them. The proportion of participants with GHQ-12 scores exceeding 12 in 2023 showed slightly decrease compared to that in 2022. The infection of significant others, the sense of hope, and PPQ self-efficiency, hope and optimism subscale scores were significantly associated with GHQ-12 scores in 2023, but actual infection or quarantine experience were not. ConclusionsThe mental health and psychological capital of the university students have been significantly improved within a year. It is worthy to pay attention to the infection of significant others, the sense of hope, and psychological capital in a pandemic to improve the mental health of university students. LimitationsCompared to a cross-sectional study, longitudinal research is the better choice for a two-year comparison.

A tale of lockdown policies on the transmission of COVID-19 within and between Chinese cities: A study based on heterogeneous treatment effect

During the early outbreak phase of COVID-19 in China, lockdowns prevailed as the only available policy tools to mitigate the spread of infection. To evaluate the impact of lockdown policies in the context of the first phase of COVID-19 pandemic, we leverage data on daily confirmed cases per million people and related characteristics of a large set of cities. The study analyzed 369 Chinese cities, among which 188 implemented lockdowns of varying severity levels from January 23 to March 31, 2020. We use nationwide Baidu Mobility data to estimate the impact of lockdown policies on mitigating COVID-19 cases through reducing human mobility. We adopt a heterogeneous treatment effect model to quantify the effect of lockdown policies on containing confirmed case counts. Our results suggest that lockdowns substantially reduced human mobility, and larger reduction in mobility occurred within-city compared to between-city. The COVID-19 daily confirmed cases per million people decreased by 9% - 9.2% for every ten-percentage point fall in within-city travel intensity in t+7 timeframe. We also find that one city’s lockdowns can effectively reduce the spillover cases of the traveler’s destination cities. We find no evidence that stricter lockdowns are more effective at mitigating COVID-19 risks. Our findings provide practical insights about the effectiveness of NPI during the early outbreak phase of the unprecedented pandemic.

Sexuality Research During a National Lockdown: Reflexive Notes and Lessons from my Ph.D. Fieldwork

The COVID-19 pandemic presented challenges for qualitative researchers since many countries had to implement lockdown policies to control the spread of the virus. Within the South African context, research on sexual minority identities and experiences is automatically sensitive and risky given the extent of intolerance and high regard for heteronormative ideologies and beliefs that continually exclude sexual minorities from the “normal.” The sensitivity is intensified during a national lockdown since there is an excessive reliance on digital public spaces to recruit participants and conduct interviews. Based on the experience of Ph.D. fieldwork, this paper pays attention to a sexuality researcher’s experience of conducting research on gay men’s experiences in the South African military and police services during a national lockdown. Particular attention is given to the dilemmas posed by the government’s restriction on physical movement and reliance on digital spaces, particularly social media to identify gay men who work in the two organizations and form virtual relationships of mutual trust. Ultimately, this paper holds that reflexivity is critical to feminist research on vulnerable sexual minorities when the relationships between the researcher and the researched are established and maintained through digital platforms. While digital spaces offer opportunities to reach vulnerable populations, they present some challenges that may compromise the credibility of the study if not identified by the researcher.

P1097 The effect of lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic on the epidemiology of inflammatory bowel diseases: a comparison of two nationwide cohorts

Abstract Background Mechanistic evidence suggest a link between COVID-19 infections and the development of immune mediated diseases. Additionally, the lockdowns during the pandemic limited the accessibility to medical care, possibly leading to reduced number of diagnosed patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We aimed to explore these contending trends on the epidemiology of IBD during the COVID-19 pandemic in two countries with different lockdown policies. Methods We utilized nationwide IBD cohorts in Israel and Sweden to explore the incidence of IBD during the pandemic (2020-2021) compared to three years prior (2017- 2019). We examined temporal trends through the presence of inflection points by Joinpoint regression analysis and reported average monthly percentage changes (AMPC). Results A total of 155,837 patients with IBD were included (Israel, 58,640; Sweden, 97,197). The incidence of IBD was stable during the three years prior to the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in February 2020 (AMPC: Israel 0.0% [95%CI -0.5% to 0.4%]; Sweden 0.2% [95%CI -0.3% to 0.7]). Thereafter, the incidence rate in Israel remained stable until November 2020 (AMPC 2.3% [95% CI -13.4% to 29.9%]) and then decreased sharply (AMPC -6.4% [95%CI-20.8% to 17.0%]) until February 2021 and -20.1% [95%CI -38.9% to -4.7%]) from February 2021), while in Sweden, which had a less stringent lockdown policy, the incidence rate decreased slightly until July 2020 (AMPC -3.3% [95%CI -21.6% to 20.3%]), but increased thereafter (AMPC 13.6% [95%CI -12.6% to 27.0%]; Figure). In Israel, the reduced incidence rate during the pandemic (February 2020 to July 2021) was notable mainly in the adult-onset disease, while in Sweden, although the overall incidence rate increased steadily across all age groups, the largest change was apparent among the elderly. Conclusion In this study of two nationwide cohorts we found that the initial decrease in incidence of IBD was most apparent in Israel with a more stringent lookdown policy and among elderly in Sweden, the only population there with significant social restrictions during the pandemic. Taken together, it is likely that the reduced incidence stemmed from the limited access to the healthcare system. Future studies are needed to determine the long-term effect of the pandemic on IBD incidence.

Coping with COVID-19 lockdown: a qualitative study of older adults in alcohol treatment

Abstract The COVID-19 global pandemic had a major impact on older people's mental health and resulted in changes in alcohol use, with more older adults increasing than decreasing consumption levels among the general population. So far, no studies have focused on older people who were already experiencing problem alcohol use. This qualitative research is the first to provide a nuanced understanding of changes to drinking patterns among older adults engaged in alcohol treatment during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the implications of these for practice. We conducted 30 semi-structured interviews with people in alcohol treatment aged 55+ living in urban and rural areas across the UK. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. We found that changes in alcohol use varied depending on the social, economic and health impacts of the pandemic on older adults. Boredom, lack of adequate medical or emotional support, and key life changes experienced during the pandemic (such as bereavement or retirement) increased the risk of increased drinking. Moreover, some people in longer-term alcohol treatment were struggling to maintain abstinence due to lack of face-to-face peer support. For others, decreased drinking levels were a side-effect of lockdown policies and restrictions, such as alcohol-related hospitalisations, closure of social spaces or inability to source alcohol; these also supported those who decided to cut down on drinking shortly before the pandemic. Generally, older adults who developed home-based interests and self-care practices managed lockdown best, maintaining abstinence or lower risk drinking levels. Based on these results, we argue that multilevel interventions aimed at strengthening resilience are required to reduce drinking or maintain abstinence among older adults. Such interventions should address three domains: individual (coping strategies and mindset), social (support networks), and structural (access to resources). In preparation for supporting older alcohol users through prospective future pandemics, building digital literacy and inclusion are essential.

Analyzing the impact of COVID-19 on consumption behaviors through recession and recovery patterns

The COVID-19 outbreak has dramatically impacted the economy, particularly consumption behaviors. Studies on how consumption responses to COVID-19 can be a powerful aid for urban consumption recovery. In this paper, based on a high-frequency consumption dataset from January 6, 2020, to April 28, 2020 covering 18 sectors and dataset from the corresponding lunar period in 2021, we look at how COVID-19 changed how people spent their money by looking at patterns of recession and recovery during the pandemic. Specifically, we first explore the recession-recovery pattern of national consumption and the effects of various policies and quantify it using regression methods. Then, recession-recovery patterns across cities are widely studied. We also reveal how consumption structures change during a pandemic and the relationship between patterns of change in citizens’ consumption and the socioeconomic characteristics of cities. And the specific empirical analysis is provided through panel regression models. In general, national consumption represented a Vshaped pattern during the pandemic, experiencing a dramatic decline and a rapid rebound. Consumption is significantly inhibited by lockdown, while it is stimulated positively but gradually by easing policies. Consumption patterns at the city level are associated with socioeconomic characteristics. Cities with high-income groups experience a more significant decline, and cities with a high share of the secondary sector have a higher recovery rate in consumption. The consumption structure redistributes but does not fundamentally change. During the recession and early recovery phase, consumption related to basic living saw a significant rise, whereas leisure-related consumption dropped dramatically and recovered slowly. Our study can assist policymakers in implementing diversified market provisions and targeted lockdown policy adjustments for consumption recovery in cities with different socioeconomic backgrounds.

The double burden of COVID-19 and cancer at the Uganda Cancer Institute

Background Cancer is increasingly diagnosed in Africa, with more than one million new diagnoses annually. In Uganda, the Uganda Cancer Institute (UCI) is the primary cancer care facility, with patients travelling long distances to this facility to receive care. During the COVID-19 pandemic, cancer care was disrupted on several levels, including prevention, screening, diagnosis, treatment, and follow-up. National lockdowns impeded patient access to UCI and halted cancer screening. Methods This study used qualitative interviews to obtain primary data from professionals working at UCI. Interviews were conducted from April 2022 to January 2023. KI (key informants) ’s were purposively selected, identified by colleagues at UCI and recruited through email and WhatsApp messaging. Verbal consent was obtained. Thirty to 60-minute open-ended interviews conducted virtually and in person were audio recorded and transcribed verbatim. Transcripts were coded via MAXQDA software and analyzed to identify themes. Results Thematic analysis revealed three major challenges to cancer care during COVID-19. First, UCI experienced logistical barriers such as travel restrictions, staff shortages, and insufficient protective gear. Second, staff adapted to the inflexible national lockdown policy for chronic health care with modifications to treatment regimens. Third, KI reported a significant mental health burden and reflected on how care should be improved. Conclusions As colleagues got infected, UCI staff organized their training, discussed treatment plans with colleagues, and continued to care for patients at personal risk. Resilience characterized UCI’s response to COVID-19. They adapted treatment protocols to their setting, many of which remain the standard of care today. At the same time, there is a need for capacity building tailored to the Ugandan context to provide cancer care effectively in case of another pandemic.

Fintech and financial performance in the banking industry: A literature review

This research conducts an in-depth literature review on the influence of fintech on the financial performance. The focus is to identify key findings from prior studies, understand concepts related to fintech adoption, and explore its impact on the firm. Analyzing literature from Sinta and Scopus databases, the study aims to provide a holistic overview of fintech's role in transforming the banking landscape. Fintech adoption is found to significantly enhance operational efficiency, affecting liquidity, profitability, and overall growth. Positive cash flow operations are crucial in determining financial performance, reflecting liquidity and operational sustainability. The study suggests that further research should delve into specific independent variables such as COVID-19 cases, lockdown policies, application characteristics, and others, as well as variables like the age of mobile banking applications, GDP per capita, and mobile penetration rates. This approach ensures a comprehensive analysis of existing knowledge, contributing valuable insights for future strategic planning in the financial technology and banking sectors.

COVID-19 vaccine refusal as unfair free-riding

Contributions to COVID-19 vaccination programmes promise valuable collective goods. They can support public and individual health by creating herd immunity and taking the pressure off overwhelmed public health services; support freedom of movement by enabling governments to remove restrictive lockdown policies; and improve economic and social well-being by allowing businesses, schools, and other essential public services to re-open. The vaccinated can contribute to the production of these goods. The unvaccinated, who benefit from, but who do not contribute to these goods can be morally criticised as free-riders. In this paper defends the claim that in the case of COVID-19, the unvaccinated are unfair free-riders. I defend the claim against two objections. First, that they are not unfair free-riders because they lack the subjective attitudes and intentions of free-riders; second, that although the unvaccinated may be free-riders, their free-riding is not unfair.

Transmission chains of the first local outbreak cause by Delta VariantB.1.617.2 COVID-19 in Guangzhou, Southern China

BackgroundThe first local outbreak of Delta Variant B.1.617.2 COVID-19 of China occurred in Guangzhou city, south China, in May 2021. This study analyzed the transmission chains and local cluster characteristics of this outbreak, intended to provide information support for the development and adjustment of local prevention and control strategies.MethodsThe transmission chains and local cluster characteristics of 161 local cases in the outbreak were described and analyzed. Incubation period, serial interval and generation time were calculated using the exact time of exposure and symptom onset date of the cases. The daily number of reported cases and the estimated generation time were used to estimate the effective reproduction number (Rt).ResultsWe identified 7 superspreading events who had more than 5 next generation cases and their infected cases infected 70.81%(114/161) of all the cases transmission. Dining and family exposure were the main transmission routes in the outbreak, with 29.19% exposed through dining and 32.30% exposed through family places. Through further analysis of the outbreak, the estimated mean incubation period was 4.22 (95%CI: 3.66–4.94) days, the estimated mean generation time was 2.60 (95%CI: 1.96–3.11) days, and the estimated Rt was 3.29 (95%CI: 2.25–5.07).ConclusionsClassification and dynamically adjusted prevention and control measures had been carried out according to analysis of transmission chains and epidemical risk levels, including promoting nucleic acid screening at different regions and different risk levels, dividing closed-off area, controlled area according to the risk of infection, raising the requirements of leaving Guangzhou. By the above control measures, Guangzhou effectively control the outbreak within 28 days without implementing a large-scale lockdown policy.

Impact of Supply Chain Disruptions on Economic Growth: Insights From a Major Public Health Crisis.

Supply chain disruptions caused by major public health crises will severely impact the economic growth. The main purpose of this paper is to examine the above proposition, taking the strict lockdown policy and supply chain disruption in Hubei Province at the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic as a case, to provide decision-making reference for the government in supply chain management under major public health crisis. To achieve this goal, this paper firstly measures the supply chain network of Hubei province via the multi-region and multi-sector value-added model; then empirically studies the impact of lockdown policy and supply chain disruption on provincial economic growth, with the monthly data of 31 provinces covering January 2018 to December 2022, by the Difference in Difference method. The results show that: the lockdown policy and supply chain disruption under the Covid-19 epidemic negatively affected provincial economic growth; moreover, supply chain disruptions make provinces closer to Hubei more vulnerable to economic shocks. The results are significant in the placebo test, and are further supported in the robustness test of alternative variables and data. We further discussed the Business Cycle Co-movement between Hubei and other provinces, and the probable impact mechanism of supply chain interruption on economic growth in the Covid-19 epidemic. This study shows that supply chain network plays an important role in the transmission of interregional economic shocks, as well as its importance for economic growth, especially in major public health crises.

Did Partial Lockdown Policy Effectively Reduce the First Wave of COVID-19 in Indonesia? A Regression Discontinuity Approach

One of the crucial issues in determining pandemic mitigation is deciding the optimal lockdown policy, whether a complete or partial lockdown could effectively reduce the spreading of COVID-19 without a vaccination policy, which could avoid global economic recession. The conventional pandemic model has limitations in predicting these linkages. The latest Causal Inference method that has been powerful in economic and health policy evaluation, such as Regressions Discontinuity Design (RDD), can contribute to this analysis. In contrast, RDD analysis in existing references is underused. This paper's objective is how the partial lockdown policy in Indonesia effects on spreading COVID-19 virus using RDD analysis. The results indicate that the partial lockdown policy reduced new cases of COVID-19 compared with having no partial lockdown policy. The results close to complete lockdown. This study uses panel data from official health, Waze, and other social variables. The pandemic model was developed from theoretical and empirical estimation. The spillover analysis was estimated using a Bayesian panel fixed-effect with Markov Chain Monte Carlo to relax the SUTVA problem. The DKI Jakarta has effectively reduced the spread of confirmed COVID-19 cases by about 10% to 22% from the baseline. The impact was less in West Java, at about 5%–18.5% from baseline. The government can control mobility during weekend periods and at the beginning of Ramadan. Policy enacted at the level of government (subdistrict level) most proximal to households had more influence on spillover effect reduction than those enacted at higher levels of government. The RDD analysis offers new implications to existing references for incorporating economic and pandemic variables for further research. Collaborating across the government level against the pandemic is paramount to controlling human mobility close to households.