Mathematical Modelling and Computational Dynamics of the impact of Quasi-Lockdown Policy in Control of COVID-19 in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria

Abstract

Determining the impact of a local control strategy, implemented to curtail the spread of COVID-19 has become obligatory to enable policy makers to combat the so-called long covid. This research used a deterministic SEIAHR-model, incorporating a logistic function to investigate the effect of quasi-lockdown policy during reemergence of corona virus pandemic. The notion of uniform convergence and fixed point theory were used to establish positive invariant region, ultimate boundedness, and existence of unique solution of the model. Nonlinear dynamical behaviours of the model such as stability and oscillating flows occurred at the disease free, and endemic equilibrium points. Using centre manifold theory, a trans-critical bifurcation with hysteresis effect were established, when quasi-lockdown policy was used as a control parameter in the model. A forward sensitivity analysis was conducted to unfold parameters that contributed significantly towards the spread and control of the infection. These parameters were estimated and fitted using least square technique, comparative to the observed real datasets adapted from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC). The polynomial regression model fitted the observed datasets with an average coefficient of determination given as R2 = 0.94. Simulations in form of phase space diagrams were used to validate the theoretic results. Epidemiologically, the model demonstrated that quasi-lockdown policy was necessarily a strategic policy to curb the spread of the infection, but not sufficient to eradicate the disease as the disease persisted endemically. It was shown that the basic reproduction number of the infection was within the critical threshold (R0 \(\le\) 1), when the lockdown policy was enforced strictly, but otherwise on relaxation of the lockdown policy (R0 \(\ge\) 1) Thus a relaxation of the quasi-lockdown policy leads to increase in susceptibility of the populace as the infection risk ratio increases in the model. Similarly, the model predicted that a pre-mature lifting of the lockdown policy could have led to high infectivity on the susceptible class and disastrous to healthy living of the citizens.