Mathematical modeling and analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria.

Enahoro A Iboi,Abba B Gumel,Oluwaseun Sharomi,Calistus N Ngonghala

doi:10.3934/mbe.2020369

Enahoro A Iboi, Abba B Gumel + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2020369

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Abstract

A mathematical model is designed and used to study the transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The model, which was rigorously analysed and parametrized using COVID-19 data published by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), was used to assess the community-wide impact of various control and mitigation strategies in some jurisdictions within Nigeria (notably the states of Kano and Lagos, and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja). Numerical simulations of the model showed that COVID-19 can be effectively controlled in Nigeria using moderate levels of social-distancing strategy in the jurisdictions and in the entire nation. Although the use of face masks in public can significantly reduce COVID-19 in Nigeria, its use, as a sole intervention strategy, may fail to lead to a substantial reduction in disease burden. Such substantial reduction is feasible in the jurisdictions (and the entire Nigerian nation) if the public face mask use strategy is complemented with a social-distancing strategy. The community lockdown measures implemented in Nigeria on March 30, 2020 need to be maintained for at least three to four months to lead to the effective containment of COVID-19 outbreaks in the country. Relaxing, or fully lifting, the lockdown measures sooner, in an effort to re-open the economy or the country, may trigger a deadly second wave of the pandemic.

Highlights

A novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, emerged out of Wuhan city of China at the end of 2019
This study further shows that the community-wide benefits of face masks are likely to be greatest when they are used in conjunction with other non-pharmaceutical interventions, and when face masks are adopted universally and compliance in their usage is high
In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or antiviral for use against the pandemic in humans, control efforts are focused on the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social-distancing, community lockdown, contact tracing, quarantine of suspected cases, isolation of confirmed cases and the use of face masks in public

Summary

Introduction

A novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, emerged out of Wuhan city of China at the end of 2019. The pandemic, which has rapidly spread to over 210 countries, continues to inflict severe public health and socio-economic burden in many parts of the world, including in Nigeria. It has, as of May 18, 2020, accounted for over 4.7 million confirmed cases and about 315,000 deaths globally [1,2,3]. The control and mitigation efforts against the pandemic are focused on implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social (physical)distancing, community lockdown, contact tracing, quarantine of suspected cases, isolation of confirmed cases and the use of face masks in public [4,5,6]. Community lockdown entails implementing the stay-at-home or stay-in-shelter strategy (so that people stay at, and work from, home), the closure of schools and non-essential businesses and services, avoiding large public or private gatherings etc

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