This paper analyzes the current conditions and development pf oil spill risks existed in Xiamen Bay in aspects of environment-sensitive resources, port throughput and vessel traffic volume etc. and makes investigation into hazards and causes of oil spill incidents. The paper makes stochastic simulation on oil spill incidents that may possibly occur in Xiamen Bay, to predict and get the probability of sensitive resources being polluted surrounding the spill location, and the shortest travel time etc. The result indicates that, oil spill risks in Xiamen Bay varies significantly with season due to influencing factors such as the prevailing wind direction and tidal current, distribution of sensitive resources and seasonal change in tourist areas. On the basis of the predicted result and environmental conditions, strategies to prevent and emergency response to oil spill risks are presented, such as planning to build the emergency response capacity to regional oil spill incidents, establishing shoreline ESI atlas and measure set, making the contingency plan more regionally interactive and targeted, setting up special governmental fund for emergency response to ship pollution incidents.
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