Local Sea Surface Temperature Research Articles

Interactions between trade wind clouds and local forcings over the Great Barrier Reef: a case study using convection-permitting simulations

Abstract. Trade wind clouds are ubiquitous across the subtropical oceans, including the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), playing an important role in modulating the regional energy budget. These shallow clouds, however, are by their nature sensitive to perturbations in both their thermodynamic environment and microphysical background. In this study, we employ the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a convection-permitting configuration at 1 km resolution to examine the sensitivity of the trade wind clouds to different local forcings over the GBR. A range of local forcings including coastal topography, sea surface temperature (SST), and local aerosol loading is examined. This study shows a strong response of cloud fraction and accumulated precipitation to orographic forcing both over the mountains and upwind over the GBR. Orographic lifting, low-level convergence, and lower troposphere stability are found to be crucial in explaining the cloud and precipitation features over the coastal mountains downwind of the GBR. However, clouds over the upwind ocean are more strongly constrained by the trade wind inversion, whose properties are, in part, regulated by the coastal topography. On the scales considered in this study, the warm-cloud fraction and the ensuant precipitation over the GBR show only a small response to the local SST forcing, with this response being tied to the surface flux and lower troposphere stability. Cloud microphysical properties, including cloud droplet number concentration, liquid water path, and precipitation, are sensitive to the changes in atmospheric aerosol population over the GBR. While cloud fraction shows little responses, a slight deepening of the simulated clouds is evident over the upwind region in correspondence to the increased aerosol number concentration. A downwind effect of aerosol loading on simulated cloud and precipitation properties is further noted.

Impact of Intra‐Skeletal Calcite on the Preservation of Coral Geochemistry and Implications for Paleoclimate Reconstruction

AbstractThe geochemistry of tropical coral skeletons is widely used in paleoclimate reconstructions. However, sub‐aerially exposed corals may be affected by diagenesis, altering the aragonite skeleton through partial dissolution, or infilling of secondary minerals like calcite. We analyzed the impact of intra‐skeletal calcite on the geochemistry (δ18O, Sr/Ca, Mg/Ca, Li/Mg, Li/Ca, U/Ca, B/Ca, Ba/Ca, and Mn/Ca) of a sub‐aerially exposed Porites sp. coral. Each micro‐milled coral sample was split into two aliquots for geochemistry and X‐ray diffraction (XRD) analysis to quantify the direct impact of calcite on geochemistry. We modified the sample loading technique for XRD to detect low calcite levels (1%–2%; total uncertainty = 0.33%, 2σ) in small samples (∼7.5 mg). Calcite content ranged from 0% to 12.5%, with higher percentages coinciding with larger geochemical offsets. Sr/Ca, Li/Mg, Li/Ca, and δ18O‐derived sea‐surface temperature (SST) anomalies per 1% calcite were +0.43°C, +0.24°C, +0.11°C, and +0.008°C, respectively. A 3.6% calcite produces a Sr/Ca‐SST signal commensurate with local SST seasonality (∼1.5°C), which we propose as the cut‐off level for screening calcite diagenesis in paleo‐temperature reconstructions. Inclusion of intra‐skeletal calcite decreases B/Ca, Ba/Ca, and U/Ca values, and increases Mg/Ca values, and can therefore impact reconstructions of paleoclimate and the carbonate chemistry of the semi‐isolated calcifying fluid in corals. This study emphasizes the importance of quantifying fine‐scale calcite diagenesis to identify coral preservation levels and assure robust paleoclimate reconstructions.

Characteristics of mesoscale eddies in the Mozambique Channel.

The mesoscale eddy characteristics of the Mozambique Warm Current were investigated by detecting and tracking satellite altimetry data from 2010 to 2019. A total of 1,086 eddies were identified in the Mozambique Channel, comprising 509 cyclonic eddies and 577 anticyclonic eddies. The results revealed that the bay area on the northwest coast of Madagascar was the main hotspot of eddy generation, and the mean amplitude and radius of the anticyclonic eddies in the Mozambique Channel were 24.23 cm and 82.7 km, respectively, which are larger than those of the cyclonic eddies. Local wind forcing had a significant impact on the formation of mesoscale eddies in the Mozambique Channel. In winter, the wind stress in the northern and southern areas of the Mozambique Channel exhibited a strong correlation with the distribution of eddy kinetic energy (EKE), where both monsoonal winds in the north and trade winds in the south could facilitate mesoscale anticyclonic eddy formation. In addition, the variability in the number of anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies in the Mozambique Channel may have exerted a significant influence on the seasonal anomalous fluctuations in local sea surface temperatures (SSTs). This study presented a novel analysis of the mesoscale eddy characteristics in the Mozambique Channel.

A Historical Plankton Index: Zooplankton abundance in the North Sea since 800 CE

The North Sea region boasted one of the world’s most important fisheries for many centuries. Climate directly and indirectly influences the development and survival of many important pelagic fish in the North Sea ecosystem. One indirect influence is the food availability in the form of phyto- and zooplankton abundance, which is strongly controlled by environmental factors. One of these environmental factors is local sea surface temperatures. A negative correlation between zooplankton abundance and sea surface temperature is well established for the epeiric sea on the European continental shelf. Continuous temporal observations of North Sea zooplankton production only exist since 1958. Therefore we developed a Historical Plankton Index (HPI) from 800 CE onwards to extend our record of temperature-driven zooplankton abundance in the North Sea over a multi-centennial time scale. For this we used the North Atlantic temperature reconstructions and associations between zooplankton abundance and contemporary sea surface temperatures established applying a General Additive Modelling (GAM) approach. We then examined the association between the HPI and historical landings from the Dutch commercial herring fishery in the 17th century to test the utility of our HPI. We examine the potential influence of food availability (in terms of zooplankton abundance) on the fishery, the evolution of which is often only considered in terms of human influences such as conflict, fishing gear and demand for fish as a commodity. We find that under certain conditions the HPI can explain 20% of the variability in Dutch herring landings. This highlights the importance of developing long-term and large-scale indices of natural marine ecosystem dynamics to understand the historical fortunes of the commercial fishing industry. The results are directly relevant to the United Nations’ sustainable development goal 14 – life below water.

Storylines for Future Projections of Precipitation Over New Zealand in CMIP6 Models

AbstractLarge uncertainty exists in the sign of long‐term changes in regional scale mean precipitation across the current generation of global climate models. To explore the physical drivers of this uncertainty for New Zealand, here we adopt a storyline approach applying cluster analysis to spatial patterns of future projected seasonal mean precipitation change across CMIP6 models (n = 43). For the winter precipitation change signal, the models split roughly into two main groups: both groups have a very robust wet signal across the west coast of the South Island but differ notably in terms of the sign of precipitation change across the north of the North Island. These far north winter precipitation differences appear related to how far the Hadley cell edge and regional eddy‐driven jet shift across the models relative to their historical positions. In contrast, for summer, most models have a markedly weaker and spatially non‐uniform response, where internal variability often plays a large role. However, a small group of models predict a robust wet signal across most of the country in summer. This “wet model” group is characterized by a regional La Niña‐like increase in high pressure shifted further to the south‐east of New Zealand, associated with more frequent north‐easterly flow over the country and accompanied by significant warming of local sea surface temperatures. This regional circulation response appears related to changes in stationary Rossby wave paths as opposed to changes in La Niña occurrence frequency itself.

Causes of Diverse Impacts of ENSO on the Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon among CMIP6 Models

Abstract This study examines the fidelity of 47 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in representing the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Southeast Asian summer monsoon (SEASM) during the ENSO decaying summer. The response of the SEASM to ENSO shows a large model spread among the models, some of which even simulate opposite signs of SEASM anomalies compared to the observed values. The bad-performance models (BPMs) are therefore selected to be compared with both the good-performance models (GPMs) and observations to explore the possible causes of the deficiency. Results show that in the BPMs, the ENSO-related warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies extend too far westward in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) and they do not dissipate in the El Niño decaying summer in comparison with those in the GPMs and observations, interfering with the effect of ENSO on the SEASM. The slow decay of WEP SST anomalies from the El Niño mature winter to the decaying summer in the BPMs is mainly caused by a weak negative shortwave radiation feedback due to a low sensitivity of convection to local SST anomalies, which is related to the cold bias in climatological SST over this region. On the other hand, from the mature winter to the decaying summer of El Niño, the El Niño–related anomalous eastward current does not reverse to a westward current in the BPMs, which also contributes to the slow decay of WEP SST anomalies via inducing excessively persistent warm zonal advection. Significance Statement We investigate the possible causes of the diverse impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Southeast Asian summer monsoon (SEASM) among 47 CMIP6 models. We find that a plausible reason for the deficiency of some models in simulating the influence of ENSO on the monsoon is that the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with ENSO are unrealistic in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) in these models. Further diagnoses indicate that the unrealistic WEP SST anomalies are related to the cold bias of the climatological SST, which could lead to a weak negative shortwave radiation feedback and excessively persistent warm zonal advection. The information provided in this study is useful for improving the skill of the climate models in representing the ENSO–SEASM relationship.

Impact of Pacific blocking on the intraseasonal winter sea ice seesaw between the Bering and Okhotsk Seas

The winter sea ice cover (SIC) over the Bering Sea (BS) and Okhotsk Sea (OS) shows significant co-variability. In particular, a clear seesaw-like variability can be observed on an intraseasonal scale between the two seas. However, the mechanism by which the atmospheric circulation affects them is unclear and further insight is needed. In this study, based on reanalysis data from 1979 to 2019, we use composite analyses to examine the physical processes of atmospheric blocking that affect the intraseasonal seesaw SIC changes between OS and BS. The investigation reveals that Pacific blocking (PB) events can enhance the existing intraseasonal seesaw variation of the OS and BS SIC in winter. Based on the maximum core position of the anticyclonic center, we divide PB events into two subgroups: western PB and eastern PB. In addition, considering average zonal shifting speed, we further classify them into three subgroups: westward shifting PB, quasi-stationary PB and eastward shifting PB. Composite results show that the changes of SIC and surface air temperature (SAT) show different asymmetric characteristics for the different PB subgroups. Of the five PB regimes, the quasi-stationary PB is associated with the greatest reduction in SIC in the BS over its lifetime, both in magnitude and duration. Furthermore, we find that the local sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly upstream of the quasi-stationary PB, both during and prior to its onset, exhibits a significant dipole mode, along with a positive anomaly in the 300-hPa zonal wind. The SST dipole could serve as a precursor climatic background condition, likely triggering the occurrence of quasi-stationary PB and subsequently leading to intense SIC changes.

Assessment of the Impact of Pacific Inflow on Sea Surface Temperature Prior to the Freeze-Up Period over the Bering Sea

Warm water inflow from the Northeast Pacific has always been considered a crucial factor in early winter freeze-up in the Bering Sea. There is a strong correlation between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) on the eastern Bering Sea shelf and sea ice area in December. However, there is still limited research on the impact of Pacific inflow on SST on the eastern Bering Sea shelf, resulting in insufficient measurements of the impact of Pacific inflow on early freeze-up. In this article, the definition of marine heatwaves (MHW) is used to extract warm events (with a threshold of the 70th percentile) and cold events (with a threshold of the 30th percentile) from the eastern Bering Sea shelf in November. Self-organizing map (SOM) technology is utilized to classify extracted cold and warm events and the mixed-layer heat budget is ultimately used to explore the factors that generate and maintain these cold and warm events. Between 1993 and 2021, a total of 12 warm and 12 cold events are extracted and their cumulative intensity is found to be strongly correlated with the interannual variation in SST by 99.8%, indicating that these warm and cold events are capable of characterizing the interannual variation in SST. Among the 12 warm events, 9 of them can be attributed to abnormal warming of seawater before November and only 3 events are attributed to warm water inflow from the Northeast Pacific. During the development of warm events, there are only two events in which the warm inflow from the Northeast Pacific has a more profound regulatory effect on warm events in November. Moreover, both generation and regulatory factors of cold events are the net air–sea heat flux. Statistics indicate that the warm water inflow from the Northeast Pacific has a limited effect on SST on the eastern Bering Sea shelf during the early freeze-up period. Changes in local SST are more influenced by the residual heat before November and by local net air–sea heat flux. However, we highlight that long-term ocean heatwaves occurring in the Northeast Pacific can enlarge the residual heat of seawater in the eastern Bering Sea shelf before November, thereby impacting early freeze-up. The frequency of such events has significantly increased in the past decade, causing notable changes in the climate and ecosystem of the Bering Sea. Therefore, it is crucial to continue closely monitoring the occurrence and development of such events in the future.

Radiative Impacts of Californian Marine Low Clouds on North Pacific Climate in a Global Climate Model

Abstract The northeastern Pacific climate system features an extensive low-cloud deck off California on the southeastern flank of the subtropical high that accompanies intense northeasterly trades and relatively low sea surface temperatures (SSTs). This study assesses climatological impacts of the low-cloud deck and their seasonal differences by regionally turning on and off the low-cloud radiative effect in a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean model. The simulations demonstrate that the cloud radiative effect causes a local SST decrease of up to 3°C on an annual average with the response extending southwestward with intensified trade winds, indicative of the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback. This nonlocal wind response is strong in summer, when the SST decrease peaks due to increased shortwave cooling, and persists into autumn. In these seasons when the background SST is high, the lowered SST suppresses deep-convective precipitation that would otherwise occur in the absence of the low-cloud deck. The resultant anomalous diabatic cooling induces a surface anticyclonic response with the intensified trades that promote the WES feedback. Such seasonal enhancement of the atmospheric response does not occur without air–sea couplings. The enhanced trades accompany intensified upper-tropospheric westerlies, strengthening the vertical wind shear that, together with the lowered SST, acts to shield Hawaii from powerful hurricanes. On the basin scale, the anticyclonic surface wind response accelerates the North Pacific subtropical ocean gyre to speed up the Kuroshio by as much as 30%. SST thereby increases along the Kuroshio and its extension, intensifying upward turbulent heat fluxes from the ocean to increase precipitation.

Unraveling the Formation Mechanism of Exceptionally Strong Marine Heatwaves in the Northeast Pacific in 2020

Abstract Throughout 2020, a persistent marine heatwave (MHW) event occurred in the northeast (NE) Pacific, which exhibited a record-breaking intensity and long duration. Three peaks of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly are identified in April, July, and November 2020, respectively, all of which are caused by the surface latent heat flux (LH) term. A Taylor expansion analysis for the LH term reveals that positive LH anomaly (LHA) played the decisive role in increasing the latent heating effect, whereas the mixed layer depth anomaly was not important in the 2020 MHW. The positive LHA was primarily caused by the southerly wind anomalies, which advected more humid air from lower latitudes to the NE Pacific and thus reduced the difference between the saturated specific humidity at sea surface and actual surface specific humidity. This reduced sea–air humidity difference was conducive to less evaporation, leading to positive LHA. Using an atmospheric general circulation model forced by observed SSTs, we find that although the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the 2020 MHW can be partly constrained by both tropical Pacific SST and local SST over the North Pacific, the role of internal atmospheric variability in the 2020 MHW’s formation cannot be overlooked. The prediction skill for the 2020 MHW in the North American Multimodel Ensemble models is limited to one month, indicating the challenge of accurately predicting MHW in the NE Pacific. The finding about the contribution of sea–air humidity difference to the LHA provides a new insight into the formation mechanism of MHW. Significance Statement An exceptionally strong and persistent marine heatwave occurred in the northeast Pacific throughout 2020, with three peaks in April, July, and November, causing considerable damage to local fisheries and ecosystems. This study found that the evolution of this marine heatwave was due to the less-than-normal release of latent heat at the ocean surface. This was mainly caused by the reduced sea–air humidity difference, which was attributed to the increased near-surface moisture transported by southerly wind anomalies. Our model experiments demonstrated that the associated anomaly fields in the atmosphere partly stemmed from stochastic processes. The state-of-the-art dynamic models can only predict this marine heatwave one month in advance, indicating the necessity of improving prediction skill for marine heatwave’s evolution in current models.

Gulf Stream Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Associated With the Extratropical Transition of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

AbstractThis study investigates Gulf Stream (GS) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic. Composites of western North Atlantic TCs indicate that GS SSTs are warmer, and both large‐ and fine‐scale SST gradients are weaker than average, for TCs that begin the ET process but do not complete it, compared with TCs that do. Further analysis suggests that the associated fine‐scale GS SST gradient anomalies are related to atmospheric processes but not the same as those that are typically associated with the onset of ET. As sensible heat flux gradients and surface diabatic frontogenesis are shown to generally scale with the local SST gradient strength, these results suggest that knowledge of the fine‐scale GS SST gradient in the weeks prior to the arrival of a TC might potentially provide additional information regarding the likelihood of that system completing ET.

HiGRN: A Hierarchical Graph Recurrent Network for Global Sea Surface Temperature Prediction

Sea surface temperature (SST) is one critical parameter of global climate change, and accurate SST prediction is important to various applications, e.g., weather forecasting, fishing directions, and disaster warnings. The global ocean system is unified and complex, and the SST patterns in different oceanic regions are highly diverse and correlated. However, existing data-driven SST prediction methods mainly consider the local patterns within a certain oceanic region, e.g., El Nino region and the Black sea. It is challenging but necessary to model the global SST correlations rather than that in a specific region to enhance the prediction accuracy of SST. In this work, we proposed a new method called Hierarchical Graph Recurrent Network (HiGRN) to address the issue. First, to learn the dynamic and diverse local SST patterns of specific locations, we design an adaptive node embedding with self-learned parameters to learn various SST patterns. Then we develop a hierarchical cluster generator to aggregate the locations with similar patterns into regional clusters and utilize a graph convolution network to learn the spatial correlations among these clusters. Finally, we introduce a multi-level attention mechanism to fuse the local patterns and regional correlations, and the output is fed into a recurrent network to achieve SST predictions. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets show that our method largely outperforms the state-of-the-art SST prediction methods. The source code is available at https://github.com/Neoyanghc/HiGRN .

On dynamical downscaling of ENSO-induced oceanic anomalies off Baja California Peninsula, Mexico: role of the air-sea heat flux

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is responsible for important physical and biogeochemical anomalies in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The event of 1997-98 has been one of the most intense in the last decades and it had large implications for the waters off Baja California (BC) Peninsula with a pronounced warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly adjacent to the coast. Downscaling of reanalysis products was carried out using a mesoscale-resolving numerical ocean model to reproduce the regional SST anomalies. The nested model has a 9 km horizontal resolution that extend from Cabo Corrientes to Point Conception. A downscaling experiment that computes surface fluxes online with bulk formulae achieves a better representation of the event than a version with prescribed surface fluxes. The nested system improves the representation of the large scale warming and the localized SST anomaly adjacent to BC Peninsula compared to the reanalysis product. A sensitivity analysis shows that air temperature and to a lesser extent wind stress anomalies are the primary drivers of the formation of BC temperature anomaly. The warm air-temperature anomalies advect from the near-equatorial regions and the central north Pacific and is associated with sea-level pressure anomalies in the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation. This regional warm pool has a pronounced signature on sea level anomaly in agreement with observations, which may have implications for biogeochemistry.

Relationship Between the Aerosol Loadings Over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea in the Early Summer and Asian Monsoon Rainfall Anomalies, and the Role of SST Anomalies in the Indian Ocean

AbstractTwo relatively long‐term satellite aerosol products during 1983–2020 and 2000–2020 are employed to investigate interannual relationships between anomalous aerosol loadings over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea (AS) in the early summer and Asian monsoon rainfall anomalies. It is shown that increased aerosol loading (IAL) over the BoB is primarily attributed to an intensified upstream aerosol transport by anomalous subtropical westerly winds and coincides with local sea surface temperature (SST) cooling due to intensified prevailing wind and the aerosol dimming effect, and vice versa. A deficient rainfall in India tends to concur with a BoB IAL while excessive rainfall with an AS IAL in May and June. In June, a BoB IAL coincides with significantly deficient rainfall in the southwestern China‐Huaihe River Basin primarily linked to an anomalous cyclone off the coast of Southeast China. Meanwhile a related overturning of Walker Circulation is identified to be driven by the contrast of anomalous convective activity between the southeastern Indian‐BoB and the South China Sea‐Philippine Sea. An AS IAL is associated with air warming in North India due to an elevated aerosol semi‐direct effect and remote forcing that reinforces the meridional air temperature gradient. The IAL over the respective BoB and AS in June are both preceded by cold SST anomalies in the western Indian Ocean that can be traced back to the preceding winter, but the corresponding atmospheric circulations driving aerosol‐monsoon interactions differ distinctly. The above aerosol‐monsoon relationships are sustained primarily during 2000–2020 and vague during 1983–2020.

Three decades of variability and warming of nearshore waters around Tasmania

The ocean region around Tasmania forms an interface between major ocean basins and represents a significant global ocean hotspot due to a rate of warming higher than the global average. Nearshore Tasmanian waters are of central importance for shallow-water ecosystems and a range of human activities, including recreation, aquaculture and fisheries which have become increasingly impacted by warming in recent decades. However, the fine-scale spatial and temporal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in these waters is not well understood, limiting opportunities for effective local-scale mitigation and adaptation measures in the face of ongoing warming. We use a high-resolution (0.02 °x 0.02°, 1992–2020) satellite SST received at local stations (validated against in situ temperature) to explore variability over seasonal, interannual, decadal and multi-decadal timescales at spatial scales from the nearshore up to the entire study domain. The SST is used as a proxy for seasonal circulation by removal of the broad-scale radiative forcing (estimated by a region-wide latitudinal gradient of SST). The main circulation drivers of nearshore SST are the East Australian Current Extension (EACx) and Zeehan Current (ZC) acting on the east and west coasts with respective peaks in summer and winter. New results include the seasonality of three summer upwelling systems, the first direct evidence of EACx inflow into eastern Bass Strait, a time series of the endpoint of the ZC/EACx intersection, and a full year description of the ZC, from warm winter inflow transitioning into a summer cooler than ambient intrusion. We find that local SST variations are controlled by coastal geometry with intensified atmospheric forcing in enclosed waters. We have identified two modes of low frequency SST variability (including 1, 2 and 10-year periods) associated with the EACx (63% of the variance) and the ZC (12%). The EACx mode induces a rapid adjustment of the entire ocean region around Tasmania. Multi-decadal warming trends occur in all regions, modulated by coastal boundary flows, changes in upwelling mechanisms and local topography. Trends in the eastern shelf arise from intrusions of EACx waters, with local processes driving trends on the western shelf. Both east and west nearshore SST trends are around + 0.4°C decade−1 with the highest value of + 0.55°C decade−1 on the central west coast, possibly associated with outflow from Macquarie Harbour.

The impact of spume droplets induced by the bag-breakup mechanism on tropical cyclone modeling

Spume, large-radius seawater droplets that are ejected from the ocean into the atmosphere, can exchange moisture and heat fluxes with the surrounding air. Under severe weather conditions, spume can substantially mediate air-sea fluxes through thermal effects and thus needs to be physically parameterized. While the impact made by spume on air-sea interactions has been considered in bulk turbulent air-sea algorithms, various hypotheses in current models have resulted in uncertainties remaining regarding the effect of spume on air-sea coupling. In this study, we extended a classic bulk turbulent air-sea algorithm with a “bag-breakup” physical scheme of spume generation parameterizations to include spume effects in a complicated numerical model. To investigate the impact of spume on air-sea coupling, we conducted numerical experiments in a simulation of Tropical Cyclone Narelle. We observed a significant improvement in the ability to model minimum central pressure and maximum sustained surface wind speed when including the bag-breakup spume scheme. In particular, the impact of the bag breakup–generated spume is observed in the intensity, structure, and size of the tropical cyclone system through the modulation of local wind speed (U10), wave height (Hs), and sea surface temperature.

Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) winter distribution and core habitats in relation to El Ninõ Southern Oscillation and depth in coastal and oceanic waters off Ecuador

AbstractSouthern Pacific humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) breed in subtropical and tropical waters off Peru in the south to Nicaragua in the north. The effect of warming oceans on humpback whale distribution in breeding areas remains unclear. We modeled the spatial distribution of humpback whales off the coast of Ecuador in relation to environmental variables. We analyzed the temporal variability in humpback whale sighting rates (animals/hour) in a subtropical (Manabí, 1996–1999) and tropical (Esmeraldas, 2001–2019) breeding ground. At the regional scale, we found humpback whale presence was more likely in shallow waters over the continental shelf. Esmeraldas and Manabí breeding grounds are core wintering habitats with most humpback whale sightings along Ecuador. Within breeding grounds, individual sighting rates varied between and within years and in relation to local sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa). More animals were sighted in years with cooler waters in the Esmeraldas breeding ground, while the opposite was true in Manabí. Our findings suggest that during ENSO conditions, humpback whales may reach their temperature niche limit in the warm tropical waters near Esmeraldas, while during La Niña conditions, cooler areas such as Peru and Manabi become less suitable, and whales move further north.

Circus Tents, Convective Thresholds, and the Non‐Linear Climate Response to Tropical SSTs

AbstractUsing model simulations, we demonstrate that the climate response to localized tropical sea surface temperature (SST) perturbations exhibits numerous non‐linearities. Most pronounced is an asymmetry in the response to positive and negative SST perturbations. Additionally, we identify a “magnitude‐dependence” of the response on the size of the SST perturbation. We then explain how these non‐linearities arise as a robust consequence of convective quasi‐equilibrium and weak (but non‐zero) temperature gradients in the tropical free‐troposphere, which we encapsulate in a “circus tent” model of the tropical atmosphere. These results demonstrate that the climate response to SST perturbations is fundamentally non‐linear, and highlight potential deficiencies in work which has assumed linearity in the response.

Signals of northward propagating monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) in the RegCM4.7 CORDEX-CORE simulation over South Asia domain

Northward propagating summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) in the Indian Ocean region remain poorly understood and difficult to predict. Here we examine a free-running high-resolution regional atmospheric model (RegCM4.7 with 25 km resolution), forced distantly at the boundaries by atmospheric observations (ERA-Interim, 0.75 $$^{\circ }$$ ) and forced locally by observed sea-surface temperature (SST) over the period 1979–2016, to assess its ability to reproduce key aspects of these MISOs. We find that the model MISO exhibits spatial structures and northward propagation characteristics broadly similar to observed MISO when confining the analysis to the 25–90 day period band. The MISO precipitation anomalies are then shown to be consistent with previously known observed relationships to broad-scale sea-level pressure patterns, Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) positioning, and changes in the regional Hadley Cell component. The total simulated seasonal (JJAS) rainfall anomalies over India are not significantly correlated with observations, indicating that intrinsic variations in the regional model atmosphere dominate most of the precipitation variability. However, the bandpass-filtered MISO anomalies surprisingly exhibit a significant correlation (0.61) with observations. This suggests that instabilities in the regional broad-scale atmospheric circulation, e.g., linked to the ITCZ position or strength, may be partly controlled by the large-scale atmospheric flows specified at the domain boundaries and/or that specified local SST anomalies may help to guide some fraction of the developing model MISO to follow observations. This result motivates further research on MISO initiation and development using this type of regional atmospheric model.

Spurious Indo‐Pacific Connections to Internal Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Introduced by the Global Temperature Residual Method

AbstractThe relative contributions of external forcing and internal processes to the observed spatial and temporal characteristics of “Atlantic Multidecadal Variability” (AMV) are still under debate. Here, the efficacy of the commonly‐used “global temperature residual method” for isolating the internal component of AMV is investigated by means of model Large Ensembles where the truth is known a priori. In this method, local sea surface temperature variability associated with global‐mean temperature (G) is removed via linear regression, and the residuals regressed upon the North Atlantic residual timeseries. We show that this method introduces spurious connections over the Indo‐Pacific due to the fact that G in any single realization includes both external and internal components: the latter dominated by influences from Pacific Decadal Variability independent of AMV. This methodological shortcoming can be overcome by using the forced component of G in the residual method applied to individual model realizations and to observations.