HiGRN: A Hierarchical Graph Recurrent Network for Global Sea Surface Temperature Prediction

Abstract

Sea surface temperature (SST) is one critical parameter of global climate change, and accurate SST prediction is important to various applications, e.g., weather forecasting, fishing directions, and disaster warnings. The global ocean system is unified and complex, and the SST patterns in different oceanic regions are highly diverse and correlated. However, existing data-driven SST prediction methods mainly consider the local patterns within a certain oceanic region, e.g., El Nino region and the Black sea. It is challenging but necessary to model the global SST correlations rather than that in a specific region to enhance the prediction accuracy of SST. In this work, we proposed a new method called Hierarchical Graph Recurrent Network (HiGRN) to address the issue. First, to learn the dynamic and diverse local SST patterns of specific locations, we design an adaptive node embedding with self-learned parameters to learn various SST patterns. Then we develop a hierarchical cluster generator to aggregate the locations with similar patterns into regional clusters and utilize a graph convolution network to learn the spatial correlations among these clusters. Finally, we introduce a multi-level attention mechanism to fuse the local patterns and regional correlations, and the output is fed into a recurrent network to achieve SST predictions. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets show that our method largely outperforms the state-of-the-art SST prediction methods. The source code is available at https://github.com/Neoyanghc/HiGRN .