Local Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Research Articles

Causes of Diverse Impacts of ENSO on the Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon among CMIP6 Models

Abstract This study examines the fidelity of 47 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in representing the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Southeast Asian summer monsoon (SEASM) during the ENSO decaying summer. The response of the SEASM to ENSO shows a large model spread among the models, some of which even simulate opposite signs of SEASM anomalies compared to the observed values. The bad-performance models (BPMs) are therefore selected to be compared with both the good-performance models (GPMs) and observations to explore the possible causes of the deficiency. Results show that in the BPMs, the ENSO-related warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies extend too far westward in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) and they do not dissipate in the El Niño decaying summer in comparison with those in the GPMs and observations, interfering with the effect of ENSO on the SEASM. The slow decay of WEP SST anomalies from the El Niño mature winter to the decaying summer in the BPMs is mainly caused by a weak negative shortwave radiation feedback due to a low sensitivity of convection to local SST anomalies, which is related to the cold bias in climatological SST over this region. On the other hand, from the mature winter to the decaying summer of El Niño, the El Niño–related anomalous eastward current does not reverse to a westward current in the BPMs, which also contributes to the slow decay of WEP SST anomalies via inducing excessively persistent warm zonal advection. Significance Statement We investigate the possible causes of the diverse impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Southeast Asian summer monsoon (SEASM) among 47 CMIP6 models. We find that a plausible reason for the deficiency of some models in simulating the influence of ENSO on the monsoon is that the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with ENSO are unrealistic in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) in these models. Further diagnoses indicate that the unrealistic WEP SST anomalies are related to the cold bias of the climatological SST, which could lead to a weak negative shortwave radiation feedback and excessively persistent warm zonal advection. The information provided in this study is useful for improving the skill of the climate models in representing the ENSO–SEASM relationship.

Humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) winter distribution and core habitats in relation to El Ninõ Southern Oscillation and depth in coastal and oceanic waters off Ecuador

AbstractSouthern Pacific humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) breed in subtropical and tropical waters off Peru in the south to Nicaragua in the north. The effect of warming oceans on humpback whale distribution in breeding areas remains unclear. We modeled the spatial distribution of humpback whales off the coast of Ecuador in relation to environmental variables. We analyzed the temporal variability in humpback whale sighting rates (animals/hour) in a subtropical (Manabí, 1996–1999) and tropical (Esmeraldas, 2001–2019) breeding ground. At the regional scale, we found humpback whale presence was more likely in shallow waters over the continental shelf. Esmeraldas and Manabí breeding grounds are core wintering habitats with most humpback whale sightings along Ecuador. Within breeding grounds, individual sighting rates varied between and within years and in relation to local sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa). More animals were sighted in years with cooler waters in the Esmeraldas breeding ground, while the opposite was true in Manabí. Our findings suggest that during ENSO conditions, humpback whales may reach their temperature niche limit in the warm tropical waters near Esmeraldas, while during La Niña conditions, cooler areas such as Peru and Manabi become less suitable, and whales move further north.

Signals of northward propagating monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) in the RegCM4.7 CORDEX-CORE simulation over South Asia domain

Northward propagating summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) in the Indian Ocean region remain poorly understood and difficult to predict. Here we examine a free-running high-resolution regional atmospheric model (RegCM4.7 with 25 km resolution), forced distantly at the boundaries by atmospheric observations (ERA-Interim, 0.75 $$^{\circ }$$ ) and forced locally by observed sea-surface temperature (SST) over the period 1979–2016, to assess its ability to reproduce key aspects of these MISOs. We find that the model MISO exhibits spatial structures and northward propagation characteristics broadly similar to observed MISO when confining the analysis to the 25–90 day period band. The MISO precipitation anomalies are then shown to be consistent with previously known observed relationships to broad-scale sea-level pressure patterns, Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) positioning, and changes in the regional Hadley Cell component. The total simulated seasonal (JJAS) rainfall anomalies over India are not significantly correlated with observations, indicating that intrinsic variations in the regional model atmosphere dominate most of the precipitation variability. However, the bandpass-filtered MISO anomalies surprisingly exhibit a significant correlation (0.61) with observations. This suggests that instabilities in the regional broad-scale atmospheric circulation, e.g., linked to the ITCZ position or strength, may be partly controlled by the large-scale atmospheric flows specified at the domain boundaries and/or that specified local SST anomalies may help to guide some fraction of the developing model MISO to follow observations. This result motivates further research on MISO initiation and development using this type of regional atmospheric model.

Marine heat waves: Characterizing a major climate impact in the Mediterranean

Marine heat waves (MHW), considered as persistent and spatially extensive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, have emerged as one of the global change-induced high impact events on the oceans. The study of MHWs received significant progress in recent years, although many unknowns remain. One of the most notable weaknesses is related to the absence of a universally established definition that would allow better intercomparison of results. It is our aim to contribute to this debate by considering the spatial extent to define a MHW. By applying this hypothesis to a relatively small, but complex, basin such as the Mediterranean, MHWs have been characterized and long-term trends assessed from SST satellite data analysis. Our results show that the inclusion of a minimum area threshold, 5 % of the area basin, greatly reduces the population of MHW events by not considering local SST anomalies that do not constitute a MHW event. A trend to more frequent, intense, and longer MHWs is found in the 1982–2021 period in the Mediterranean. In the spatial characterization and long-term trend analysis, regional differences were apparent. Results evidenced variations in MHWs characteristics and trends across the different sub-basins evidencing the fact that, even in a relatively small basin such as the Mediterranean, significant regional differences make it necessary to include a spatial perspective in the studies, beyond purely local analysis at each observation point in a large basin or even in the global ocean. Regarding the characterization of MHWs and trend analysis in the Mediterranean basin, a growing trend has been found in terms of frequency, duration, and intensity that accelerated since 2000 and especially in the last decade, pointing not just to a steady intensification and higher frequency of MHWs but to the emergence of a new set of more intense, long-lasting and spatially extensive MHWs in the recent years.

What Mainly Drives the Interannual Climate Variability Over the Barents‐Kara Seas in Boreal Early Autumn?

AbstractYear‐to‐year forecasts of the Arctic climate conditions have drawn much interest in recent decades. This study investigates the primary drivers responsible for interannual variations (without multi‐decadal trends) of air temperature at 2 m (T2m) and sea ice concentration (SIC) over the Barents‐Kara Seas (BKS) during September from 1950 to 2021. The Arctic Dipole (AD), a leading factor in the BKS variability, plays an important role via influencing large‐scale atmospheric circulations and local thermodynamical feedbacks (i.e., vapor and albedo feedbacks). During a negative AD phase, the positive surface air temperature advection anomalies warm up the BKS region and promote sea ice melting, which in turn maintains the below‐normal sea ice and warmer‐than‐normal conditions via positive vapor and albedo feedbacks. Moreover, our results suggest that the sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the midlatitudes of the North Atlantic in the preceding month could also be an important driver of the SIC variability over the BKS area. The anomalous temperature advections from the surface to the upper troposphere are accompanied by a Rossby wave‐type atmospheric response, which intensifies the energy exchanges between the ocean and the atmosphere. Local SST anomalies associated with the surface heat flux anomalies further persist in the following month and influence sea ice variations due to their long‐lasting memory. A better understanding of the mechanisms of interannual climate variabilities over the BKS region in boreal early autumn is helpful to improving the Arctic regional climate predictions.

Feedback of tropical cyclones on El Niño diversity. Part I: Phenomenon

Understanding of the El Niño phenomenon is improving and several studies have considered the dynamics of El Niño diversity, however, the important role of tropical cyclones has rarely been reported. Here we show a clear feedback of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) on the El Niño diversity. Strong (weak) accumulated cyclone energy helps to shift the center of strongest sea surface temperature anomalies 3 months later to the equatorial eastern (central) Pacific, and thus supporting the development of the eastern-Pacific (central-Pacific) El Niño. Local sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño-3.4/Niño-3/Niño-4 region and tropical western Pacific, zonal wind anomalies over the tropical central-western Pacific and Madden‒Julian Oscillation play small roles in the process that WNP TCs affect El Niño diversity. Moreover, the greater number of central-Pacific El Niño events after 1999/2000 may be associated with weaker accumulated cyclone energy in this period.

The Intraseasonal Variations of the Leading Mode of Summer Precipitation Anomalies in Meiyu Area of East Asia

The intraseasonal variations of summer precipitation anomalies in the Meiyu area of East Asia are analyzed by applying a combined empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) of the latest meteorological reanalysis data ERA5 of European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for the period from 1991 to 2020, and the circulation structures and sources of variability of CEOF are also investigated. The first mode of the intraseasonal variations shows an in-phase pattern over the Meiyu area in June, July, and August, accounting for 22.2% of the total variance in the intraseasonal variations of summer precipitation anomalies. The positive (negative) CEOF1 is accompanied by the negative (positive) East Asia/Pacific pattern, including strong westerly wind anomalies in the upper troposphere and southwest monsoon in the lower troposphere, and the Western Pacific Subtropical High extending westward and its ridge line slightly south. The positive CEOF1 is preceded by decay of El Niño episodes, including the abnormal warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the equatorial Central-Eastern Pacific in spring and warm SSTAs in the equatorial Indian Ocean in summer. The second mode shows an opposite precipitation anomaly in June and July, and the distribution in August is not significant. The corresponding geopotential height circulation of positive CEOF2 shows the large negative anomaly in the region north of 40° N and a positive anomaly over Japan in June, whereas the pattern reverses in July. At the same time, there is a radical reversion from abnormal eastly to westly wind in the upper troposphere. The structure of CEOF2 is somewhat induced by local SSTAs over the Northern Indian Ocean and South China Sea.

Climate Change Implications Found in Winter Extreme Sea Level Height Records around Korea

The impact of climatic variability in atmospheric conditions on coastal environments accompanies adjustments in both the frequency and intensity of coastal storm surge events. The top winter season daily maximum sea level height events at 20 tidal stations around South Korea were examined to assess such impact of winter extratropical cyclone variability. As the investigation focusses on the most extreme sea level events, the impact of climate change is found to be invisible. It is revealed that the measures of extreme sea level events—frequency and intensity—do not correlate with the local sea surface temperature anomalies. Meanwhile, the frequency of winter extreme events exhibits a clear association with the concurrent climatic indices. It was determined that the annual frequency of the all-time top 5% winter daily maximum sea level events significantly and positively correlates with the NINO3.4 and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indices at the majority of the 20 tidal stations. Hence, this indicates an increase in extreme event frequency and intensity, despite localized temperature cooling. This contradicts the expectation of increases in local extreme sea level events due to thermal expansion and global climate change. During El Nino, it is suggested that northward shifts of winter storm tracks associated with El Nino occur, disturbing the sea level around Korea more often. The current dominance of interannual storm track shifts, due to climate variability, over the impact of slow rise on the winter extreme sea level events, implies that coastal extreme sea level events will change through changes in the mechanical drivers rather than thermal expansion. The major storm tracks are predicted to continue shifting northward. The winter extreme sea level events in the midlatitude coastal region might not go through a monotonic change. They are expected to occur more often and more intensively in the near future, but might not continue doing so when northward shifting storm tracks move away from the marginal seas around Korea, as is predicted by the end of the century.

Structure and function of the southeastern Gulf of California ecosystem during low and high sea surface temperature variability

The southeastern Gulf of California is located where two major ocean systems meet: the California Current at the north and the North Equatorial current at the south, however the ecosystem-level effects that have such confluence remain unknown. In this study, we compared the structure and function of this ecosystem between two periods 1994–1997 and 2006–2007. We based the comparison on food web models built with Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) modeling software and assumed local sea surface temperature anomalies (1993–2009) as an environmental indicator. We analyzed the ecosystem function using indicators estimated by EwE. We performed structural analysis using topological centrality indices to analyze the role of trophic species in the food web. We found that the structure and function of the ecosystem differed among the two periods, which were characterized by two clearly different levels of variation (low variability in 1994–1997 and high variability in 2006–2007). The total biomass, total system throughput, net production of the system, connectance and Finn’s cycling index decreased from 1994–1997 to 2006–2007. The mean transfer efficiency (MTE) revealed that in the period, the energy flow among trophic levels was more efficient. During 2006/07, there was an increase in the ecosystem’s organization, but at the same time, the ecosystem may have been more vulnerable to external perturbations because its resilience decreased. In relation to the structural role of trophic compartments, there were differences in both periods. We found that most groups change their trophic role under different oceanographic conditions. We discuss that the changes in the ecosystem are related to local variability in sea surface temperature.

Prediction of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High in Summer without Strong ENSO Forcing

The western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) is one of the deterministic predictors of the East Asian summer climate, and a better prediction of the WNPSH favors more reasonable forecast of the East Asian summer climate. This study focuses on seasonal prediction of the WNPSH during neutral summers without strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing, and explores the associated predictable sources, using the one-month lead time retrospective forecasts from the Ensembles-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project during 1960–2005. The results indicate that the ENSEMBLES atmosphere-ocean-land coupled models exhibit considerable prediction skill for the WNPSH during neutral summers, with successful reproduction of the WNPSH in the majority of neutral summers. The anomalous WNPSH in neutral summers, which corresponds to cyclonic/anticyclonic anomalies in the lower troposphere, is highly correlated with an east-west dipole local sea surface temperature (SST) distribution over the tropical WNP, suggesting an intimate local air-sea coupling. Further diagnosis of the local SST-rainfall relationship and surface heat flux indicates that the anomalous local SST plays an active role in modulating the variation of the WNPSH during neutral summers, rather than passively responding to the atmospheric change. The local SST anomalies and relevant air-sea coupling over the tropical WNP are reasonably well reproduced in the model predictions, and could act as primary predictable sources of the WNPSH in neutral summers. This could aid in forecasting of the East Asian rainband and associated disaster mitigation planning.

Observed response of marine boundary layer cloud to the interannual variations of summertime Oyashio extension SST front

Active roles of both sea surface temperature (SST) and its frontal characteristics to the atmosphere in the mid-latitudes have been investigated around the western boundary current regions, and most studies have focused on winter season. The present study investigated the influence of the variation of the summertime Oyashio extension SST front (SSTF) in modulating low-level cloud properties (i.e., low-level cloud cover [LCC], cloud optical thickness [COT], and shortwave cloud radiative effect [SWCRE]) on inter-annual timescales, based on available satellite and Argo float datasets during 2003–2016. First, we examined the mechanism of summertime SSTF variability itself. The strength of the SSTF (SSSTF), defined as the maximum horizontal gradient of SST, has clear inter-annual variations. Frontogenesis equation analysis and regression analysis for subsurface temperature indicated that the inter-annual variations of the summertime SSSTF in the western North Pacific are closely related to the variations of not surface heat flux, but western boundary currents, particularly the Oyashio Extensions. The response of low-level cloud to intensified SSSTF is that negative SWCRE with positive COT anomaly in the northern flank of the SSTF can be induced by cold SST anomalies. The spatial scale of the low-level cloud response was larger than the SST frontal scale, and the spatial distribution of the response was mainly constrained by the pathways of Kuroshio and Oyashio Extensions. Multi-linear regression analysis revealed that the local SST anomaly played largest role in modulating the SWCRE and COT anomalies among the cloud controlling factors (e.g., estimated inversion strength, air-temperature advection) accounting for more than 50% of the variation. This study provides an observational evidence of the active role of local SST anomalies in summertime associated with the western boundary currents to the oceanic low-level cloud.

PDO-Related Wintertime Atmospheric Anomalies over the Midlatitude North Pacific: Local versus Remote SST Forcing

AbstractObserved wintertime atmospheric anomalies over the central North Pacific associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) are characterized by a cold/trough (warm/ridge) structure, that is, an anomalous equivalent barotropic low (high) over a negative (positive) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly. While the midlatitude atmosphere has its own strong internal variabilities, to what degree local SST anomalies can affect the midlatitude atmospheric variability remains unclear. To identify such an impact, three atmospheric general circulation model experiments each having a 63-yr-long simulation are conducted. The control run forced by observed global SST reproduces well the observed PDO-related cold/trough (warm/ridge) structure. However, the removal of the midlatitude North Pacific SST variabilities in the first sensitivity run reduces the atmospheric response by roughly one-third. In the second sensitivity run in which large-scale North Pacific SST variabilities are mostly kept, but their frontal-scale meridional gradients are sharply smoothed, simulated PDO-related cold/trough (warm/ridge) anomalies are also reduced by nearly one-third. Dynamical diagnoses exhibit that such a reduction is primarily due to the weakened transient eddy activities that are induced by weakened meridional SST gradient anomalies, in which the transient eddy vorticity forcing plays a crucial role. Therefore, it is suggested that midlatitude North Pacific SST anomalies make a considerable (approximately one-third) contribution to the observed PDO-related cold/trough (warm/ridge) anomalies in which the frontal-scale meridional SST gradient (oceanic front) is a key player, although most of those atmospheric anomalies are determined by the SST variabilities outside of the midlatitude North Pacific.

The Impact of SST on the Zonal Variability of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in Boreal Summer

AbstractSummertime western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is closely related to remote sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical oceans (TO) and local SSTA in the western North Pacific (WNP). Based on atmospheric reanalysis and multimodel ensemble products, the warming (cooling) of the tropical Indian, tropical central‐eastern Pacific, and tropical Atlantic (tropical western Pacific and WNP) can lead to westward extension of the WPSH, and vice versa. A series of numerical experiments are conducted to quantify the relative importance of remote and local SSTA, including the separate impact of different TO basins. In response to warming (cooling) of the tropical Indian, tropical central‐eastern (western) Pacific, and tropical Atlantic, ascending (descending) motions develop locally and subsequently excite remote baroclinic and barotropic responses. The baroclinic anticyclone west of 140°E contributes to the westward extension of the WPSH. The barotropic anticyclone and descending motion over the WNP can further increase the sea level pressure and strengthen the WPSH. Based on the quasi‐geostrophic omega equation, we find that the anomalous vorticity advection (thermal advection) primarily accounts for the anomalous descending motion in response to remote (local) SSTA. Compared to local SSTA, the remote SSTA can induce larger perturbations, subsequently making the zonal variability of the WPSH more significant. Furthermore, it is found that the westward extension of the WPSH is primarily induced by atmospheric baroclinic (barotropic) response to the SSTA in tropical Indian and tropical Atlantic (tropical Pacific). Overall, the tropical Indian plays the most important role on the zonal movement of the WPSH.

Relations between Interannual Variability of Regional-Scale Indonesian Precipitation and Large-Scale Climate Modes during 1960–2007

AbstractRegional-scale precipitation responses over Indonesia to major climate modes in the tropical Indo–Pacific Oceans, namely canonical El Niño, El Niño Modoki, and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), and how the responses are related to large-scale moisture convergences are investigated. The precipitation responses, analyzed using a high-spatial-resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) terrestrial precipitation dataset for the period 1960–2007, exhibit differences between the dry (July–September) and wet (November–April) seasons. Canonical El Niño strongly reduces precipitation in central to eastern Indonesia from the dry season to the early wet season and northern Indonesia in the wet season. El Niño Modoki also reduces precipitation in central to eastern Indonesia during the dry season, but conversely increases precipitation in western Indonesia in the wet season. Moisture flux analysis indicates that corresponding to the dry (wet) season precipitation reduction due to the canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki anomalous divergence occurs around the southern (northern) edge of the convergence zone when one of the two edges is located near the equator (10°S–15°N) associated with their seasonal migration. This largely explains the seasonality and regionality of precipitation responses to canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki. IOD reduces precipitation in southwestern Indonesia in the dry season, associated with anomalous moisture flux divergence. The seasonality of precipitation response to IOD is likely to be controlled by the seasonality of local sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern pole of the IOD.

Changes in the sensitivity of tropical rainfall response to local sea surface temperature anomalies under global warming

AbstractChanges in tropical rainfall variability under global warming are crucial to rainfall changes induced by tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variability modes, which exerts severe influences on human society and the natural environment. As the main factor influencing tropical rainfall variability, changes in the sensitivity of tropical rainfall response to local SST anomalies under global warming remain unclear. This study reveals its two dominant spatial features based on the multi‐model ensemble mean result from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The sensitivity of tropical rainfall response to SST anomalies is enhanced in the equatorial central–eastern Pacific, and exhibits a positive Indian Ocean dipole‐like pattern in the Indian Ocean. A simplified moisture budget decomposition shows that such change is composed of the thermodynamic effect induced by the increase in mean‐state moisture and the dynamic effect induced by the changes in the sensitivity of atmospheric circulation response to SST anomalies. When the thermodynamic effect, displaying a ‘wet‐get‐wetter’ paradigm, is basically offset with a part of the dynamic effect by the general weakening of atmospheric circulation response to SST anomalies under global warming, changes in the sensitivity of rainfall response to SST anomalies is dominated by a residual dynamic effect that reflects the roles of two factors: the spatially non‐uniform SST warming and the climatological SST. As a result, the ‘warmer‐get‐wetter’ paradigm is more important to changes in the sensitivity of rainfall rasponse to SST anomalies than to climatological rainfall changes. Moreover, the non‐uniform SST warming pattern and the climatological SST are also important sources of intermodel uncertainty in the changes of sensitivity of rainfall rasponse to SST anomalies.

On the Angola Low Interannual Variability and Its Role in Modulating ENSO Effects in Southern Africa

Abstract The Angola low is a summertime low pressure system that affects the convergence of low-level moisture fluxes into southern Africa. Interannual variations of the Angola low reduce the seasonal prediction skills for this region that arise from coupled atmosphere–ocean variability. Despite its importance, the interannual dynamics of the Angola low, and its relationship with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other coupled modes of variability, are still poorly understood, mostly because of the scarcity of atmospheric data and short-term duration of atmospheric reanalyses in the region. To bypass this issue, we use a long-term (3500 year) run from a 50-km-resolution global coupled model capable of simulating the summertime southern African large-scale circulation and teleconnections. We find that the meridional displacement and strength of the Angola low are moderately modulated by local sea surface temperature anomalies, especially those in proximity of the southeastern African coast, and to a lesser extent by ENSO and the subtropical Indian Ocean dipole. Comparison of the coupled run with a 1000-yr run driven by climatological sea surface temperatures reveals that the interannual excursions of the Angola low are in both cases associated with geopotential height anomalies over the southern Atlantic and Indian Ocean related to extratropical atmospheric variability. Midlatitude atmospheric variability explains almost 60% of the variance of the Angola low variability in the uncoupled run, but only 20% in the coupled run. Therefore, while the Angola low appears to be intrinsically controlled by atmospheric extratropical variability, the interference of the atmospheric response forced by sea surface temperature anomalies weakens this influence.

Impact of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon on the Indian Ocean Dipole

AbstractThis paper investigates the impact of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) on the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). The results show that the SCSSM has a significant positive relationship with the IOD over the boreal summer [June–August (JJA)] and fall [September–November (SON)]. When the SCSSM is strong, the enhanced southwesterly winds that bring more water vapor to the western North Pacific (WNP) lead to surplus precipitation in the WNP, inducing anomalous ascending there. Consequently, the anomalous descending branch of the SCSSM Hadley circulation (SCSSMHC) develops over the Maritime Continent (MC), favoring deficit precipitation in situ. The precipitation dipole over the WNP and MC as well as the enhanced SCSSMHC leads to intensification of the southeasterly anomalies off Sumatra and Java, which then contributes to the negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies through the positive wind–evaporation–SST and wind–thermocline–SST (Bjerknes) feedbacks. Consequently, a positive IOD develops because of the increased zonal gradient of the tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies and vice versa. The SCSSM has a peak correlation with the IOD when the former leads the latter by three months. This implies that a positive IOD can persist from JJA to SON and reach its mature phase within the frame of the positive Bjerknes feedback in SON. In addition, the local and remote SST anomalies in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans have a slight influence on the relationship between the SCSSM and precipitation dipole over the WNP and MC.

Weakening of the Tropical Atmospheric Circulation Response to Local Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies under Global Warming

Abstract In the tropics, the atmospheric circulation response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is a crucial part of the tropical air–sea interaction—the primary process of tropical climate. How it will change under global warming is of great importance to tropical climate change. Here, it is shown that the atmospheric vertical circulation response to local SST anomalies will likely be weakened under global warming using 28 selected models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The weakening of the circulation response to SST anomalies is closely tied to the increased atmospheric stability under global warming, which increases at the same rate as the circulation response decreases—around 8% for 1 K of tropical-mean SST warming. The spatial pattern of background warming can modify—especially in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific—the spatial distribution of the changes in the circulation response. The atmospheric response to SST anomalies may increase where the local background warming is pronouncedly greater than the tropical mean. The general weakening of the atmospheric circulation response to SST anomalies leads to a decreased circulation response to the structured variability of tropical SST anomalies, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean dipole. The decreased circulation response will offset some of the enhancement of the tropical rainfall response to these SST modes as a result of global-warming-induced moisture increase and also implies a decreased amplitude of the tropical air–sea interaction modes.

The asymmetric effects of El Niño and La Niña on the East Asian winter monsoon and their simulation by CMIP5 atmospheric models

El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events significantly affect the year-by-year variations of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). However, the effect of La Nina events on the EAWM is not a mirror image of that of El Nino events. Although the EAWM becomes generally weaker during El Nino events and stronger during La Nina winters, the enhanced precipitation over the southeastern China and warmer surface air temperature along the East Asian coastline during El Nino years are more significant. These asymmetric effects are caused by the asymmetric longitudinal positions of the western North Pacific (WNP) anticyclone during El Nino events and the WNP cyclone during La Nina events; specifically, the center of the WNP cyclone during La Nina events is westward-shifted relative to its El Nino counterpart. This central-position shift results from the longitudinal shift of remote El Nino and La Nina anomalous heating, and asymmetry in the amplitude of local sea surface temperature anomalies over the WNP. However, such asymmetric effects of ENSO on the EAWM are barely reproduced by the atmospheric models of Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), although the spatial patterns of anomalous circulations are reasonably reproduced. The major limitation of the CMIP5 models is an overestimation of the anomalous WNP anticyclone/cyclone, which leads to stronger EAWM rainfall responses. The overestimated latent heat flux anomalies near the South China Sea and the northern WNP might be a key factor behind the overestimated anomalous circulations.

Extreme Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts over Southern Maritime Continent

AbstractThis study investigated the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) extreme shifts in the Southern Maritime Continent (SMC) region in austral spring during the period 1979–2015. The results have shown that the ITCZ Southern Boundary (SB) presents great correlations with a meridional Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradient and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. However, besides these local forcing, the extreme ITCZ shifts are also influenced by El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and an associated zonal SST gradient. The extreme shifts are due mainly to the combination of changes in Walker Circulation (WC) in the Pacific and Indian Ocean (IO) and local SST anomalies. Therefore, during ITCZ southward extreme shifts, the WC is stronger leading to the strengthening of the northwest equatorial winds in the IO, which pumps moist air and boosts the diabatic heating in the SMC due to the local positive SST anomalies present in this region. Otherwise, during northward extreme shifts, the WC is weaker, not allowing the performance of the northwest equatorial winds in the IO, which associated with the local negative SST anomalies, leads to drier conditions in the SMC region. Another interesting result found here is that a strong meridional or zonal index not necessarily implies a larger shift. The combination of very strong ENSO and IOD events can lead to greater ITCZ SB shifts. Besides, the ITCZ SB shifts can act as a bridge linking IOD and ENSO.