What Mainly Drives the Interannual Climate Variability Over the Barents‐Kara Seas in Boreal Early Autumn?

Abstract

AbstractYear‐to‐year forecasts of the Arctic climate conditions have drawn much interest in recent decades. This study investigates the primary drivers responsible for interannual variations (without multi‐decadal trends) of air temperature at 2 m (T2m) and sea ice concentration (SIC) over the Barents‐Kara Seas (BKS) during September from 1950 to 2021. The Arctic Dipole (AD), a leading factor in the BKS variability, plays an important role via influencing large‐scale atmospheric circulations and local thermodynamical feedbacks (i.e., vapor and albedo feedbacks). During a negative AD phase, the positive surface air temperature advection anomalies warm up the BKS region and promote sea ice melting, which in turn maintains the below‐normal sea ice and warmer‐than‐normal conditions via positive vapor and albedo feedbacks. Moreover, our results suggest that the sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the midlatitudes of the North Atlantic in the preceding month could also be an important driver of the SIC variability over the BKS area. The anomalous temperature advections from the surface to the upper troposphere are accompanied by a Rossby wave‐type atmospheric response, which intensifies the energy exchanges between the ocean and the atmosphere. Local SST anomalies associated with the surface heat flux anomalies further persist in the following month and influence sea ice variations due to their long‐lasting memory. A better understanding of the mechanisms of interannual climate variabilities over the BKS region in boreal early autumn is helpful to improving the Arctic regional climate predictions.