Local Forecasts Research Articles

Coordination of SARS-CoV-2 wastewater and clinical testing of university students demonstrates the importance of sampling duration and collection time

Wastewater surveillance has been a useful tool complementing clinical testing during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, transitioning surveillance approaches to small populations, such as dormitories and assisted living facilities poses challenges including difficulties with sample collection and processing. Recently, the need for reliable and timely data has coincided with the need for precise local forecasting of the trajectory of COVID-19. This study compared wastewater and clinical data from the University of Delaware (Fall 2020 and Spring 2021 semesters), and evaluated wastewater collection practices for enhanced virus detection sensitivity. Fecal shedding of SARS-CoV-2 is known to occur in infected individuals. However, shedding concentrations and duration has been shown to vary. Therefore, three shedding periods (14, 21, and 30 days) were presumed and included for analysis of wastewater data. SARS-CoV-2 levels detected in wastewater correlated with clinical virus detection when a positive clinical test result was preceded by fecal shedding of 21 days (p< 0.05) and 30 days (p < 0.05), but not with new cases (p = 0.09) or 14 days of shedding (p = 0.17).Discretely collected wastewater samples were compared with 24-hour composite samples collected at the same site. The discrete samples (n = 99) were composited examining the influence of sampling duration and time of day on SARS-CoV-2 detection. SARS-CoV-2 detection varied among dormitory complexes and sampling durations of 3-hour, 12-hour, and 24-hour (controls). Collection times frequently showing high detection values were between the hours of 03:00 to 05:00 and 23:00 to 08:00. In each of these times of day 33% of samples (3/9) were significantly higher (p < 0.05) than the control sample. The remainder (6/9) of the collection times (3-hour and 12-hour) were not different (p > 0.05) from the control. This study provides additional framework for continued methodology development for microbiological wastewater surveillance as the COVID-19 pandemic progresses and in preparation for future epidemiological efforts.

The Flash Flood Guidance System Implementation Worldwide: A Successful Multidecadal Research-to-Operations Effort

Abstract At the beginning of the twenty-first century a research-to-operations program was initiated to design and develop operational systems to support local forecasters in their challenging task to provide advance warning for flash floods worldwide. Twenty-some years later, the Flash Flood Guidance System with global coverage provides real-time assessment and guidance products to more than 60 countries, serving nearly 3 billion people. The implementation domains cover a wide range of hydroclimatological, geomorphological, and land-use regimes worldwide. This flexible and evolving system combines meteorology and hydrology data and concepts as well as supports product utility for flash flood disaster mitigation on very large scales with high spatial and temporal resolution. Through quality control procedures, it integrates remotely sensed data of land surface precipitation and of land surface properties from geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite platforms, reflectivity data from a variety of weather radar systems, and asynchronous precipitation data from ground-based automated precipitation gauges in order to produce assessments and short-term forecasts that support forecasters and disaster managers in real time. For each region, it also integrates mesoscale meteorological model forecasts with land surface model response to produce longer-term guidance products. It contains components and interfaces that allow real-time forecaster adjustments to products based on local last-minute field information and relevant forecaster experience. Assessments of utility for flash flood warning operations by national forecasting agencies worldwide are positive. The article exemplifies the process of realization and evolution of the Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS) from research in interdisciplinary fields to operations in diverse environments, and discusses lessons learned.

Do Local Forecasters Have Better Information?

Do Local Forecasters Have Better Information?

The Potential of Hydro-Climate Forecast Strategies in Sustaining Agricultural Productivity amongst Rainfed Farmers in West Africa: A Review

Several studies have reported a significant yearly decrease in forest cover globally, using satellite images. This is especially true in West Africa, where rapid urbanisation acerbates the problem, and both of these changes lead to alterations in rainfall regime and other changes in climatic parameters. Several studies reveal that adaptation which reduces vulnerability to adverse climatic variation effects is the key to developing resilience against climate change. In this region, over 90% of farmers are engaged in small-scale rainfed crop cultivation and rely on their own weather perception, instincts and what they observe from the surrounding biota (flora and fauna) to forecast the weather and plan their agricultural activities. The pressing nature of the problem of climate variability in Africa had provoked a lot of research into developing and testing several adaptation strategies to control the situation. Various strategies to improve and localize global, regional and national climate services (Local Forecast, Scientific Forecast and Integrated Forecast) needed by the farmers are being developed to build resilience against climate change. This review illustrates the situation in Ghana and identifies various forecast strategies developed to mitigate the adverse effects of climate variability on agricultural productivity. These mitigation methods include the development of climate services to provide users with forecast information in order to make climate-smart decisions to minimize the risk.

Estimation of Seasonal Snow Mass Balance all over Japan Using a High-Resolution Atmosphere-Snow Model Chain

Despite the importance of seasonal snow in Japan, quantitative information on seasonal snow mass in the whole area is lacking. To understand the current mass balance of seasonal snow cover, we develop a method to quantify the mass balance of seasonal snow all over Japan using the Japan Meteorological Agency's operational regional atmospheric model, Local Forecast Model (LFM), as well as the snow physics model, Snow Metamorphism and Albedo Process (SMAP). Our model simulations using the LFM-SMAP model chain show that the seasonal snow water equivalent (SWE) evolution is mostly controlled by snowfall and runoff. It is estimated that the seasonal peak area-integrated SWE in Japan reaches 42.2 Gt on average during the 2017-2022 winters, and 60.1 Gt (+43% with respect to the average) and 22.0 Gt (−48%) during relatively heavy (2017-2018) and relatively light (2019-2020) snow years, respectively. The ratios between seasonal peak area-integrated SWE and winter-accumulated (November to February) snowfall amounts for the heavy, average, and light snow years are 83%, 74%, and 59%, respectively.

Ways to improve the reliability of interpreting the results of geophysical surveys performed for the local forecast and prospecting for solid minerals: a geodynamic approach

Background. The geodynamic approach is effectively used in regional forecasting and prospecting works. However, its application for local forecasting and prospecting for solid minerals is limited and sometimes impossible. One of the key problems of local forecasting and prospecting for minerals (solid, liquid, gaseous) is the presence of non-standard (flickering) geophysical anomalies, which complicates the interpretation of the results of geophysical surveys performed at different times at different stages of geological exploration. The article is devoted to clarifying the possibility of using geodynamic research in local forecasting and prospecting for solid minerals on the basis of attracting the latest scientific knowledge from the field of studying the spatio-temporal patterns of the development of modern geodynamic processes and their influence on the Earth’s geophysical fields. Aim. To increase the reliability of interpreting the results of geophysical surveys performed for local forecasting and prospecting for solid minerals.Materials and methods. The research was carried out on the basis of a comprehensive analysis of literature data, fund materials and the results of many years of the author’s own research in the fields of modern geodynamics and prospecting and exploration geodynamics. The initial data were based on the monitoring data of various Earth’s geophysical fields (deformation, seismic, and surface magnetic).Results. A geodynamic reason for the appearance of flickering anomalies in the Earth’s geophysical fields (in particular, magnetic) has been established, and a mechanism for their formation under the influence of modern geodynamic processes has been proposed. The possibility of using the geodynamic approach in the prospecting for solid minerals has been expanded, and ways to increasing the efficiency of local searches have been proposed.Conclusions. The research demonstrates the possibility of using geodynamic studies in local prospecting for solid minerals, which helps to increase the reliability of the results of interpretation of geophysical survey data, and, as a result, to reduce the overall financial and time costs involved with searching for mineral deposits.

Early History of Using Total Lightning Data at NWS Melbourne, Florida

This forecaster’s note documents the early history (1989–1998) of the use of total lightning data within an operational forecast and warning environment. As early as 1989, the Melbourne field office of the National Weather Service had access to real-time cloud-to-ground lightning data. In 1993, the Lightning Detection and Ranging system (capable of detecting all types of lightning flashes) became available. In 1996, these two lightning data sets, along with radar data, were incorporated into the Lightning Imaging Sensor Data Applications Display (LISDAD) system. During a 3-y period (1996–1998 inclusive), the LISDAD permitted forecasters to observe relationships of total lightning with a variety of convective events, including pulse-severe thunderstorms in the warm season, cool-season tornadic supercells, tornadic mini-supercells in tropical cyclones, and non-severe storms. Major findings included: 1) “lightning jumps” with warm-season pulse-severe storms several minutes prior to reported severe weather; 2) cool-season tornadic supercell storms with very large total flash rates; and 3) tornadic mini-supercells in tropical cyclones produced only small amounts of lightning, however this sporadic activity benefited forecasters by implying stronger updraft development in a favorably sheared environment, in turn implying possible storm rotation and potential tornadogenesis. Finally, given the availability of total lightning datasets to operational forecasters, local forecast products could more effectively provide the public information about the overall lightning threat.

Accurate influenza forecasts using type-specific incidence data for small geographic units.

Influenza incidence forecasting is used to facilitate better health system planning and could potentially be used to allow at-risk individuals to modify their behavior during a severe seasonal influenza epidemic or a novel respiratory pandemic. For example, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) runs an annual competition to forecast influenza-like illness (ILI) at the regional and national levels in the US, based on a standard discretized incidence scale. Here, we use a suite of forecasting models to analyze type-specific incidence at the smaller spatial scale of clusters of nearby counties. We used data from point-of-care (POC) diagnostic machines over three seasons, in 10 clusters, capturing: 57 counties; 1,061,891 total specimens; and 173,909 specimens positive for Influenza A. Total specimens were closely correlated with comparable CDC ILI data. Mechanistic models were substantially more accurate when forecasting influenza A positive POC data than total specimen POC data, especially at longer lead times. Also, models that fit subpopulations of the cluster (individual counties) separately were better able to forecast clusters than were models that directly fit to aggregated cluster data. Public health authorities may wish to consider developing forecasting pipelines for type-specific POC data in addition to ILI data. Simple mechanistic models will likely improve forecast accuracy when applied at small spatial scales to pathogen-specific data before being scaled to larger geographical units and broader syndromic data. Highly local forecasts may enable new public health messaging to encourage at-risk individuals to temporarily reduce their social mixing during seasonal peaks and guide public health intervention policy during potentially severe novel influenza pandemics.

Local versus foreign analysts' forecast accuracy: does herding matter?

The aim of this paper is to compare the information and resource endowments possessed by different analyst types, classified by both location and employment within the context of seven emerging Asian markets. Our results show that local analysts are more accurate than expatriate and global analysts when we consider all earnings forecasts. However, when we control for the segregated herding behaviour of analysts, we find that herding local forecasts are one of the least accurate compared to other herding forecasts. By contrast, bold local (that is, non‐herding local) forecasts are more accurate than all other bold forecasts. This suggests that the information endowment of bold local analysts is superior to the information and resource endowments of bold expatriate analysts. We show that the superior accuracy of bold local forecasts does not stem from business group affiliations, investment banking relationships, demand for local analysts’ services or the specialisation of analysts vis‐à‐vis countries or sectors. We consistently find that bold local analysts are better at assessing the earnings of the firm they forecast. Our results show that the prior documented advantage of local analysts in terms of forecasting accuracy is driven by the bold local analysts, with herding locals diluting this effect. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to explore the segregated herding behaviour of local, expatriate and global analysts, and its impact on relative forecast accuracy across analyst types.

Predictive assessment of the stability of quarry sides

The composition of the rocks composing the quarry sides and the approximate slope angles in accordance with the mining and geological conditions are described. The issues of creating observation stations are considered taking into account seasonal temperature fluctuations of the benchmarks. Observation materials are generalized, the degree of danger of deformations is established on the basis of observations of deformation speed. The mining safety control methods are described. The disadvantages of the approach to data processing and analysis are identified. A criterion for mine surveying prediction of the pit wall stability based on the comparison of critical and actual relative deformations is proposed. The purpose of the local forecast of wall deformation is to control the stability of non-working and working slopes of the sides, and to confirm the efficiency of the method used. The predictive assessment was carried out on the shift of working benchmarks on one of the open pits of Transbaikalia. It is suggested monitoring the stability of rocks using oscillograms obtained by seismic equipment.

Importance of patient bed pathways and length of stay differences in predicting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England

BackgroundPredicting bed occupancy for hospitalised patients with COVID-19 requires understanding of length of stay (LoS) in particular bed types. LoS can vary depending on the patient’s “bed pathway” - the sequence of transfers of individual patients between bed types during a hospital stay. In this study, we characterise these pathways, and their impact on predicted hospital bed occupancy.MethodsWe obtained data from University College Hospital (UCH) and the ISARIC4C COVID-19 Clinical Information Network (CO-CIN) on hospitalised patients with COVID-19 who required care in general ward or critical care (CC) beds to determine possible bed pathways and LoS. We developed a discrete-time model to examine the implications of using either bed pathways or only average LoS by bed type to forecast bed occupancy. We compared model-predicted bed occupancy to publicly available bed occupancy data on COVID-19 in England between March and August 2020.ResultsIn both the UCH and CO-CIN datasets, 82% of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 only received care in general ward beds. We identified four other bed pathways, present in both datasets: “Ward, CC, Ward”, “Ward, CC”, “CC” and “CC, Ward”. Mean LoS varied by bed type, pathway, and dataset, between 1.78 and 13.53 days.For UCH, we found that using bed pathways improved the accuracy of bed occupancy predictions, while only using an average LoS for each bed type underestimated true bed occupancy. However, using the CO-CIN LoS dataset we were not able to replicate past data on bed occupancy in England, suggesting regional LoS heterogeneities.ConclusionsWe identified five bed pathways, with substantial variation in LoS by bed type, pathway, and geography. This might be caused by local differences in patient characteristics, clinical care strategies, or resource availability, and suggests that national LoS averages may not be appropriate for local forecasts of bed occupancy for COVID-19.Trial registrationThe ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study ISRCTN66726260 was retrospectively registered on 21/04/2020 and designated an Urgent Public Health Research Study by NIHR.

Seamless Multimodel Postprocessing for Air Temperature Forecasts in Complex Topography

AbstractStatistical postprocessing is applied in operational forecasting to correct systematic errors of numerical weather prediction models (NWP) and to automatically produce calibrated local forecasts for end-users. Postprocessing is particularly relevant in complex terrain, where even state-of-the-art high-resolution NWP systems cannot resolve many of the small-scale processes shaping local weather conditions. In addition, statistical postprocessing can also be used to combine forecasts from multiple NWP systems. Here we assess an ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) approach to produce seamless temperature forecasts based on a combination of short-term ensemble forecasts from a convection-permitting limited-area ensemble and a medium-range global ensemble forecasting model. We quantify the benefit of this approach compared to only postprocessing the high-resolution NWP. The multimodel EMOS approach (“mixed EMOS”) is able to improve forecasts by 30% with respect to direct model output from the high-resolution NWP. A detailed evaluation of mixed EMOS reveals that it outperforms either one of the single-model EMOS versions by 8%–12%. Temperature forecasts at valley locations profit in particular from the model combination. All forecast variants perform worst in winter (DJF); however, calibration and model combination improves forecast quality substantially. In addition to increasing skill as compared to single-model postprocessing, it also enables us to seamlessly combine multiple forecast sources with different time horizons (and horizontal resolutions) and thereby consolidates short-term to medium-range forecasting time horizons in one product without any user-relevant discontinuity.

A seven-year climatology of the initiation, decay and morphology of severe convective storms during the warm season over North China

AbstractThe present work established a 7-year climatology of the initiation, decay, and morphology of severe convective storms (SCSs) during the warm seasons (May–September) of 2011–2018 (except 2014) over North China. This was achieved by using severe weather reports, precipitation observations, and composite Doppler radar reflectivity data. A total of 371 SCSs were identified. SCSs primarily initiated around noon with the highest frequency over the high terrain of Mount Taihang, and they mostly decayed over the plains at night. The storm morphologies were classified into three types of cellular storms (individual cells, clusters of cells, and broken lines), six types of linear systems (convective lines with no stratiform, with trailing stratiform, leading stratiform, parallel stratiform, embedded lines, and bow echoes), and nonlinear systems. Three types of severe convective weather, namely, short-duration heavy rainfall, hail, and thunderstorm high winds associated with these morphologies were investigated. Nonlinear systems were the most frequent morphology, followed by clusters of cells. Convective lines with trailing stratiform were the most frequent linear morphology. A total of 1,429 morphology samples from the 371 SCSs were found to be responsible for 15,966 severe convective weather reports. Linear (nonlinear) systems produced the most short-duration heavy rainfall (hail and thunderstorm high wind) reports. Bow echos were most efficient in producing both short-duration heavy rainfall and thunderstorm high wind reports whereas broken lines had the highest efficiency for hail production. The results in the present study are helpful for local forecasters to better anticipate the storm types and associated hazardous weather.

Methods for prediction of the avalanche danger

The work considers methods for the prediction of the avalanche danger. It shown that for the local forecasts the most efficient way is to simulate snow mass by the particles dynamics technique. Basin on this model it is possible to predict the critical parameters for the avalanche sliding, the character of motion of snow mass, the force and energy of its impact on the movable and immovable obstacles with different shape and, hence, a destructive avalanche ability.

Study of mapping features of preconditions for formation of hydrocarbon deposits on the continental slope of the Western Black Sea basin

The integral thermo-atmogeochemical structural investigations (TAGSI) have been carried out at the continental slope of the Western Black Sea Depression for the first time. The technique of TAGSI as non-traditional and cost-effective exploration technology is originally developed at Institute of Geological Sciences. It consists of phased geo-structural researches and analysis of fault tectonics, morphological analysis and neotectonic interpretation of space images, thermal and atmo-geochemical surveying, lab measurements and processing of the data acquired to build thematic map using GIS technologies. Field data acquisition stage includes thermometric, emanation and gas surveying (Rn/Tn, He, CO2, H2, free hydrocarbons) in petroleum-prone onshore areas and bottom sediments (up to 2 m below the surface) thermometry, Rn-metering and measurements of gas content in the near-bottom layer offshore.To conduct the surveying there was developed a special instrument with some modifications designed to work onshore and offshore respectively. This technology is tested in different regions of Ukraine over known oil and gas fields. The results of TAGSI are considered in the paper. The geostructural analysis, interpretation of space images, atmogeochemical survey of the near-­bottom water layer (radon, helium, carbon dioxide, hydrogen, free hydrocarbons), thermic and lithogeochemical examination of bottom sediments enable to outline the petroleum-promising areas. Morphological, structural, tectonic, stratigraphic features of the continental slope’s structure are characterized. It has been found that potential petroleum-bearing structures occur in the region, which are genetically similar to the productive Mesozoic and Cenozoic stratons of the northwestern shelf and other areas of the Crimean – Caucasian Region. The results of the carried out studies show that it is purposeful to use TAGSI for local forecast of promising targets at the early search stages, for rational location of drillholes, prospecting and recovery of hydrocarbons.

ЗНАЧЕННЯ ТА РОЛЬ БЮДЖЕТНОГО КОНТРОЛЮ В СИСТЕМІ БЮДЖЕТНОГО ПРОЦЕСУ

В Україні бюджетний контроль певною мірою зачіпає питання ефективності використання бюджетних коштів в якості фінансового менеджменту, а його результати майже не використовують при формуванні бюджетів та прийнятті управлінських рішень. Автор зазначає, що контроль за цільовим використанням бюджетних коштів, дотриманням вимог бюджетного законодавства, станом та використанням державного та комунального майна повинен стати більш дієвим, орієнтованим не лише на виявлення, але переважно на запобігання фінансовим правопорушенням, має створювати основу для прийняття конкретних управлінських рішень. Тільки на цій основі в державному секторі може бути створена ефективна система бюджетного контролю. Необхідність бюджетного контролю, його сутність і значення визначаються державним устроєм та Конституцією України. При аналізі Бюджетного кодексу України постає запитання про те, чи є контроль стадією бюджетного процесу. На думку автора, бюджетний контроль не є самостійною стадією бюджетного процесу, оскільки він має місце на всіх стадіях бюджетного процесу і супроводжує весь процес утворення, розподілу і використання централізованого фонду грошових коштів – державного та місцевих бюджетів. В статті зазначається, що бюджетний контроль є необхідною процедурою супроводження стадії складання, розгляду і затвердження Бюджетної декларації або прогнозу місцевого бюджету, складання проекту бюджету, розгляду і затвердження бюджету, виконання бюджету, а також складання, розгляду і затвердження звіту про виконання відповідного бюджету.

Response to Zöller et al.'s critique on “Potential short‐term earthquake forecasting by farm‐animal monitoring”

AbstractZöller et al. (Ethology, 2020) criticize our original publication (Wikelski et al., Ethology, 126(9), 2020, 931) for obvious reasons: we only observed the behavior of one group of farm animals before, during and after one earthquake series in one area of the world. It is clear that no earthquake predictions are possible, and should not be attempted, from this data set. However, what we show is that there is important information within this animal collective pertaining to potential future local forecasting of earthquakes when combined with traditional data sources. We maintain that combining Zöller et al.'s (2020) modeling tools with the adequate use of our data can stimulate novel ways of earthquake forecasting. Future studies should combine both approaches.

Peculiarities of search for placer deposits of gold of the south of Ukraine

The long-term high level of world gold prices against the background of depletion of reserves with easily extracted metal leads to the search for and introduction into industrial development of deposits, even with low-tech ores and sands. This, in turn, requires the introduction of effective technologies for the enrichment and extraction of gold, contributes to the improvement of methods of exploration. At present, numerous manifestations of placer gold of various scales are known in the sedimentary strata of Meso-Cenozoic deposits in the south of Ukraine. But the real picture of the distribution and the actual scale of gold deposits in Ukraine are uncompleted and unreliable. This is due to the inconsistency of the applied search technique, which was aimed at identifying near-subglacial valley deposits, to the actual properties of gold-bearing formations. Gold in most Ukrainian placers is represented mainly by small, fine and dispersed particles in a significantly clay substrate. Therefore, the traditional geological samples washing by tray led to excessive losses of fine gold and to a significant underestimation of the gold potential. That is why we need to revise the results of previously obtained geological data. Detection of placer gold deposits of Ukraine is possible under the condition of increasing the efficiency of the local forecast and the reliability of field research. The most favorable situations for the accumulation of a useful component are structural denudation traps in tectonic depressive zones. The technology of sample enrichment must correspond to the actual properties of specific raw materials in the placer object. The types of technological equipment are given and some ways of increase of efficiency and reliability of test are offered. The article continues the series of publications devoted to solving the problems of studying placer gold content with a dominant share of fine and dispersed gold in sedimentary formations of the south of Ukraine.

Інноваційні технології пошуків корисних копалин, основані на дослідженнях флюїдних включень у мінералах

The innovative approach to the development of prospective technologies (methods) was substantiated on crystallogenic and physicochemical principles of the knowledge of mineral forming environments (fluids) (thermobarogeochemistry – mineralofluidology – fluid inclusions) as a new branch of geological knowledge within the framework of the new scientific direction in the geology – «thermobarometry and geochemistry of gases of veinlet-impregnated mineralization in deposits of oil- and gas-bearing areas and metallogenic provinces» as a natural phenomenon of the Earth’s lithosphere. According to him, the creation of radically new technologies and realization of prospecting for mineral deposits (first of all hydrocarbons and gold) simultaneously with the elucidation of the problem of genesis and synthesis of hydrocarbons at the atomic-molecular level fixed by such defects in the mineral crystals as fluid inclusions. Developed technologies, namely: determination of genesis of hydrocarbon gases; determination of prospects of oil and gas presence of a local area; local forecast of enriched areas of gold ore fields; express determination of potassium ions in inclusions for identification of gold-enriched and barren veinlet formations, – belong to the branch of the exploration geology and geochemistry and are used to ascertain genetic guestions, to solve tasks of the mineralogical-geochemical prediction and prospecting for mineral deposits in the local structures of oil- and gas-bearing areas and metallogenic provinces. The comparison of fluid inclusions of veinlets and host rocks based on the sections of a number of wells has shown the considerable possibilities of the developed technologies and prospects of the usage of thermobarogeochemical-mineralofluidological indicators in the complex with the geochemical and geophysical (petrophysical) methods, data of geological survey, deep-seated drilling while predicting hydrocarbon deposits in the local structures of the sedimentary strata promising for oil and gas and making necessary amendments in the directions of the following geological-prospecting works.

The COVID-19 Pandemic Vulnerability Index (PVI) Dashboard: Monitoring County-Level Vulnerability Using Visualization, Statistical Modeling, and Machine Learning.

The COVID-19 Pandemic Vulnerability Index (PVI) Dashboard: Monitoring County-Level Vulnerability Using Visualization, Statistical Modeling, and Machine Learning.