Loan Quality Research Articles

The effects of bank competition, financial stability and ownership structure: evidence from the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries

PurposeThis study aims to show the relationship between competition, financial stability and ownership structure of banks in the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators to generate research results. This study uses an unbalanced panel dynamic data set. It covers the period 2011 to 2017 in MENA banks.FindingsThis study implies that there is a significant and positive relationship between market power and the financial stability of banks in MENA countries. It explains a competitive market focus on credit risk, which turns them risky. From the bank’s ownership view, Islamic banks are in a less risky position which means Islamic banks are more stable than other ownership structures. On the other hand, government specialized institute displays their poor financial stability and risky from other ownership structures. Unfortunately, there is no significant impact of ownership structure on competition unless Islamic banks prove that they (Islamic banks) perform better in market power.Practical implicationsThe empirical findings of this study suggest that MENA banks should improve the process of managing and monitoring the non-performing loan (loan segment business). It reduces the level of credit risk, which leads to achieving more profit. It also recommends that loan quality should improve immediately in this region for declining financial disruption. Based on the ownership structure, policymakers and stakeholders should adjust their risk and financial stability. Notably, the stakeholders can focus on Islamic banks in this region as this type of ownership structure showing superiority over other ownership structures.Originality/valueThis study is based on the latest data set and produced outcomes by using a GMM estimator. It also uses multiple measures of competition and risk variables to get robust results. Moreover, to the best of the knowledge, this study is the pioneer to examine the competition, risk (financial stability) and ownership structure of banks in the MENA countries.

The Vanishing Interest Income of Chinese Banks

Abstract Chinese banks likely have more nonperforming loans (NPLs) than officially reported. Banks’ NPLs often deviate from Benford's law. As hidden NPLs earn no interest income, loan quality problems may erode the gross interest income of banks. Using stochastic frontier analysis, we estimate the interest income of a hypothetical profit-maximizing Chinese bank with no credit quality problems. Taking the deviation of actual interest income from the calculated efficient income, we then attempt to reveal the amount of hidden NPLs in Chinese banks. Our results uncover a substantial weakening in the quality of Chinese bank loan portfolios in 2016.

Contribution of Financial Services Quality on Financial Performance of Banking Sector in Rwanda: A Case of Bank of Kigali Limited (BK)

The study examined the contribution of financial services quality on financial performance of banking sector taking Bank of Kigali (BK), Rwanda. Specifically, this study assessed the effects of saving quality on financial performance of Bank of Kigali Limited-Rwanda, ascertained effects of loan quality on the financial performance of Bank of Kigali Limited-Rwanda and analyzed effects of e-banking service quality on financial performance of Bank of Kigali Limited-Rwanda. The research used a cross-sectional design using both qualitative and quantitative approaches. The study target population was 320 staff members and clients of the bank of Kigali operating in the City of Kigali. The sample size was 178 respondents determined using the Slovene formula. Simple random sampling technique was used for sample selection. The findings revealed there is positive relationship between saving services quality and the financial performance of the bank of Kigali as indicated saving service quality and market share (r=.759, p =.000), increase return on investment (r=.401, p= .000); increase earnings per share (.702**; p=.000) increase customer retention (r=.708**, p=.000). It was concluded that saving service quality can explains 72.7% of the variations in financial performance and that improvement in saving service quality by one unit leads to an increase of financial performance by 0.557 units in the Bank of Kigali. Further, it was concluded that majority of the respondents appreciated the quality of loan services provided at the bank of Kigali, and that there is a strong positive relationship between loan services quality and financial performance as indicated by loan service quality and return on investment (r=.631; p=.000); earnings per share; (r= .528*, p=.000) and customer retention (r=.644*; p=.045), it was also conclude that the combined effect of the loan service quality explains 55.3% of the financial performance of the Bank of Kigali, and that increase in quality of loan provided at the BK by one unit lead to the improve 0.194 unit on the financial performance of the Bank of Kigali. It was established there is strong positive relationship between e-banking services quality and market share increase (r=.694; p=.000); return on investment (r=.729; p=.000), earnings per share (r=.121; p=.008), and that the combined effects of e-banking service quality explain 75.3% of the variations on financial performance of the Bank of Kigali. The study recommended that other commercial banks should put more emphasis on electronic banking in order to perform well. More features of electronic banking should be introduced in commercial banks to attract more customers and perform well. The government of the republic of Rwanda through the national bank of Rwanda should help commercial banks by training their staff and clients on the benefits of electronic banking. Keywords: Saving quality, loan quality, banking service quality, financial performance, Bank of Kigali-Limited, Rwanda.

Does financial literacy “grease the wheels” of the loans market? A note

PurposeWhat is the impact of financial literacy on the lending activity of banks? Based on the results of the S&P Global FinLit Survey for an extensive sample of countries, this paper aims to provide the first global test for the impact of country-level financial literacy on the lending activity of commercial banks.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use data on financial literacy by country from the S&P Global FinLit Survey that was completed in 2014 and lending activity and macroeconomic control variables data from the World Bank from 2015 to 2017 to estimate the cross-sectional effect of financial literacy on the importance of loans and of non-performing loans, using different estimation methods.FindingsThe results show that, first, financial literacy favors lending activity, contributing to enhance the importance of credit in the economy. Second, financial literacy prevents bad loans from building up, thus reducing credit risk and favoring the quality of the credit portfolio of banks. These results are robust to several controls for macroeconomic conditions and the quality of institutions. They are also robust to different estimation methods.Research limitations/implicationsThe evidence of the positive (negative) impact of population financial literacy on the quantity (poor quality) of loans suggests that the efforts to enhance the financial literacy of the population contribute to the sustainable development of the financial sector and economic growth.Originality/valueThe paper extends to an international and country-level the available evidence of the consequences of the existence (or lack of) of financial literacy for the lending activity of commercial banks, focusing on the amount of credit granted and the quality of such credit. Thus, the paper provides an exploratory analysis of the impact of country-level financial literacy on the lending activities of commercial banks.

The influence of earnings management on bank efficiency: the case of frontier markets

Frontier market banks fill key funding gaps in the markets they serve, resulting in increased evaluation (a positive) and earnings management (EM) (a negative). Examination of a large sample of banks in 22 frontier market countries from 2001 to 2018 reveals a downward trend in efficiency, indicating that loan quality issues persist despite increasing economic growth in the respective countries. Using stochastic frontier analysis to quantify efficiency and random effects and truncated regression to investigate the EM-efficiency relation, this study demonstrates that efficiency is negatively associated with EM. Furthermore, there was no clear relationship between bank size and efficiency, which counters economic efficiency theory and implies that frontier market banks absorb higher non-performing loan costs. The findings herein support prospect theory by demonstrating that managers engage in risk-seeking behaviour while making risk-averse decisions. Overall, the study's implications suggest that banks employ alternative loan provision practices to optimise resource allocation and, by extension, performance.

The Potential for Biases in Resolving Loan Problems

This paper describes how behavioral biases influence the resolution of financial covenant violations. Prior literature documents that violation waivers are common; however, there is a lack of discussion on the determinants that lead loan officers to waive covenant violations. We rely on the escalation of commitment bias (or the sunk cost phenomenon) to discuss how loan officers may become attached to a selected course of action and fail to incorporate new information, increasing the likelihood of covenant waivers. We explain the implications of this bias on bank financial reports by detailing how accounting links loan quality to bank financial statements. We further draw on the psychology literature to offer potential solutions to mitigate overcommitment in the context of loan officers. Future research can examine the extent to which loan officers knowingly or unknowingly steer away from rational decision-making. This study has practical implications as users of bank financial reports, including investors, auditors, examiners, and bank managers, learn about processes and challenges on how accounting mechanics link bank loan portfolios to financial statements.

Impact of income diversification strategy on credit risk and market risk among microfinance institutions

PurposeThis study explores the effect of income diversification strategy on credit risk and market risk of microfinance institutions (MFIs) in Ghana as an emerging market.Design/methodology/approachThe study is based on quarterly data of averagely 271 MFIs that have operated from 2016 to 2018. The dataset is unbalanced and pooled cross-sectional with 3,259 data points. The study measures the diversification strategy using income diversification indices, and accounting ratios to measure the other variables. We utilised the weighted least squares (WLS) approach to explore the nexus.FindingsThe findings show that income diversification is associated with better loan quality and credit risk management. Market risk increases with the level of income diversification of microfinance firms. It is evident that large MFIs can manage their credit risks well and can have a low default rate, depicting an overall U-shaped nexus. On the other hand, the effect of size on market risk is an inverted U-shaped. The effect of asset tangibility on credit risk is positively significant while the effect on market risk is negatively significant. High profitability enhances credit risk management leading to lower loan losses while in the case of diversified and profitable MFIs, they tend to invest more in government securities. The results suggest that MFIs that hold more cash and cash equivalents tend to have high loan loss provision and more government securities suggesting much attention should be paid to optimal cash management.Practical implicationsThe results throw light on the credit risk and market risk profile of the firms and the effect of diversification strategies on them. The findings are relevant for effective macroprudential regulation, market regulation and prudential regulation of the microfinance sector.Social implicationsThe findings reveal the nature of income diversification strategy of MFIs in emerging markets such as Ghana, pointing out how they affect the risk exposure of MFIs that lend to the pro-poor population.Originality/valueThis is a premier formal assessment of the nexus between income diversification strategies and risk management among MFIs that serve the pro-poor population in the emerging market context.

A predictive indicator using lender composition for loan evaluation in P2P lending

Most loan evaluation methods in peer-to-peer (P2P) lending mainly exploit the borrowers’ credit information. However, the present study presents the maturity-based lender composition score, which exploits the investment capability of a group of lenders who fund the same loan, to enhance the P2P loan evaluation. More specifically, we extract lenders’ profiles in terms of performance, risk, and experience by quantifying their investment history and develop our loan evaluation indicator by aggregating the profiles of lenders in the composition. To measure the ability of a lender for continuous improvement in P2P investment, we introduce lender maturity to capture this evolvement and incorporate it into the aggregation process. Our empirical study demonstrates that the maturity-based lender composition score can serve as an effective indicator for identifying loan quality and be included in other commonly used loan evaluation models for accuracy improvement.

The Effect of Changes in Economic Growth on Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) Problem in the Greek Banking System

The Greek economy was affected very badly by the global economic and financial crisis of 2007-2008. The main reason of this catastrophic event is that the country’s speedy economic and financial growth in the pre-crisis period heavily based on the foreign funds, and the flow of these funds stopped immediately -even turned to opposite direction- with the spread of the crisis to Europe. This negative happening as well as the rearrangement of the public debts and remarkable reduction in the bank deposits led to a big financial crisis, and thus economic recession. Meanwhile, the loan quality in the banking system worsened extremely -almost half of the credits turned to bad loan- due to the macroeconomic deterioration as well as the banks’ very tolerated lending policies before the crisis, the borrowers’ imperfect attitudes, and improper governance. The improvement in NPLs ratio, which started simultaneously with the modest economic recovery in 2017, decreased it to 30.2 percent in 2020 from its peak level of 48.5 percent in 2016. However, a big part of it has been achieved thanks to write-offs and loan-sales.In this study, it was aimed to measure the effect of the changes in economic growth on these drastic changes in NPLs ratio. Although the changes in the gross domestic product (GDP) and NPLs ratio have always been in consistency with the economic theory, except the pandemic year of 2020, the often big differences between their changing rates imply that some other factors have also played significant role on NPLs movements. The findings of some studies for Greece indicate to remarkable impact of both economic growth and the other factors on bad loans issue. The results of our regression analysis also show that the relation between economic growth and NPLs is not so strong.In spite of the noticeable improvement, NPLs ratio is still at a very high level and requires constant remarkable declines in order to come down to the generally accepted levels. To perform this and have economic and financial recovery at the same time, the recovery should not be achieved only by write-offs and portfolio sales, but by collections from borrowers, and executions. The banks and the government should make the necessary changes in their policies and applications so as to decrease NPLs ratio through new lending, compromise with proper borrowers, and court executions. Keywords: Greece, global crisis, sovereign debt crisis, economic growth, non-performing loans. DOI: 10.7176/RJFA/12-12-05 Publication date: June 30 th 2021

Shadow banking from China's perspective: an empirical analysis of bank-issued wealth management products

PurposeWealth Management Products (WMPs) are the largest and most crucial component of China's Shadow banking, which are off the balance sheet and considered as a substitute for deposits. Commercial banks in China are involved in the issuance of WMPs mainly to; evade the regulatory restrictions, move non-performing loans away from the balance sheet, chase the profits and take advantage of yield spread (the difference between WMPs yield and deposit rate).Design/methodology/approachIn this study, the authors investigate what bank related characteristics and needs; influenced and prompted the issuance of WMPs. By using a quarterly panel data from 2010 to 2019, this study performed the fixed effects approach favored by the Hausman specification test, and a feasible generalized least square (FGLS) estimation method is employed to deal with any issues of heteroscedasticity and auto-correlation.FindingsThis study found that there is a positive and significant association between the non-performing loan ratio and the issuance of WMPs. Moreover, profitability and spread were found to play an essential role in the issuance of WMPs. The findings of this study suggest that WMPs are issued for multi-purpose, and off the balance sheet status of these products makes them very lucrative for regulated Chinese commercial banks.Research limitations/implicationsNon-guaranteed WMPs are considered as an item of shadow banking in China, as banks do not consolidate this type of WMPs into their balance sheet; due to that reason, there is no individual bank data available for the amount of WMPs. The authors use the number of WMPs issued by banks as a proxy for the bank's exposure to the WMPs business.Practical implicationsFrom a regulatory perspective, this study helps regulators to understand the risk associated with the issuance of WMPs; by providing empirical evidence that Chinese banks issue WMPs to hide the actual risk of non-performing loans, and this practice could mislead the regulators to evaluate the bank credit risk and loan quality. This study also identifies that Chinese banks issue WMPs for multi-purpose; this can help potential investors to understand the dynamics of WMPs issuance.Originality/valueThis research is innovative in its orientation because it is designed to investigate the less explored wealth management products (WMPs) issued by Chinese banks. This study's content includes not only innovation but also contributes to the existing literature on the shadow banking sector in terms of regulatory arbitrage. Moreover, the inclusion of FGLS estimation models, ten years of quarterly data, and the top 30 Chinese banks (covers 70% of the total Chinese commercial banking system's assets) make this research more comprehensive and significant.

The effect of TARP on lending: Evidence from the lead bank’s share in syndicated loans

We investigate the effect of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) on the shares of lead banks in syndicated loans by using quarterly data for the period from 2008 to 2011. We find that TARP capital injections to lead banks have a significantly positive effect on their shares of syndicated loans. Specifically, we estimate that the effect of TARP on the lending of lead banks increases their shares by 6.1% that is equivalent to an additional $50.37 million for an average syndicated loan of $840 million. The significantly positive effect is stronger for a lead bank that is larger, has a greater appetite for risk, and is not under supervisory stress. Overall, our results show that TARP was an effective mechanism for promoting the lending of lead banks. The larger fractional share of lead banks in syndicated loan packages signals both the loan quality and their commitment to mitigating the adverse selection and moral hazard problems. This study sheds new light on the mixed evidence of TARP on lending and contributes to the research and policy debates on the role of stringent supervisory scrutiny in lending.

IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 SHOCK ON BANKING AND CORPORATE SECTOR VULNERABILITIES IN INDONESIA

Indonesia’s economic contraction eased and its Covid-19 handling improved in the first quarter of 2021, with at least 13% of the targeted population receiving their first vaccination by the third week of June. The economic improvement was driven by external sectors, but the pace of the recovery differed considerably across sectors. This Survey looks at the balance sheets of corporations and the banking sector in the midst of the pandemic. We find that the worsening of corporate balance sheets may require government intervention to prevent liquidity problems from turning into solvency problems. While the banks’ capital position remains adequate, the deterioration of loan quality, reflecting real sector conditions, is worse than it appears. Recent stress testing of the banking sector confirms the potential vulnerabilities in the sector. We end the article by highlighting policies the government could consider to position Indonesia for a post-pandemic future, particularly over the next two years.

Heterogeneity in the Relationship Between NPLs and Real Economy: Evidence from the Mongolian Banking System

Abstract The paper analyses the relationship between the banks’ credit risk and macroeconomic conditions by addressing the following questions; (i) How are macroeconomic shocks transmitted to lending risk depending on the ban-specific features? (ii) Are the effects of macroeconomic shocks different across the loan portfolios in various economic sectors? Unlike the common assumption in the literature, the empirical analysis considers banks’ heterogeneity and diversification across borrowers. It employs heterogeneous panel SVARs and standard SVAR models on a dataset from 2002. Q1 to 2019.Q1. The results suggest that the deterioration in credit quality is affected by both macroeconomic and bank-specific factors, with substantial heterogeneity in the magnitudes and timing in terms of the type of loans in various business sectors and bank characteristics. In particular, we find strong evidence of cyclical sensitivity of loan quality, and about 1/4 of banks’ NPLs increases stronger in response to the shocks to growth, exchange rate, interest rate, and profitability. The highly profitable banks tend to less engage in excessive risk-taking, resulting in lower NPLs, whereas the relation of asset size to NPLs is not significant for the sample. A growth shock plays a prominent role in explaining the variation of NPLs for the trade and mining sectors. Similarly, the loan supply shock is the main determinant for the construction sector’s NPLs, while the exchange rate shock is the most responsible for the manufacturing sector. The interest rate shock and exchange rate shock are the most effective factors on NPLs of consumer loans. Finally, the feedback effect of NPLs shows that deterioration of credit quality slows down economic growth.

Competition, securitization, and efficiency in US banks

This paper investigates the different effects of competition and securitization on US bank efficiency between 2001 and 2019. Using Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and a two-step dynamic Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation, we find that higher securitization increases banks’ cost efficiency scores. When banks are under competitive pressure, the fixed-effects and GMM models show that securitization is positively associated with the cost efficiency of banks, while it mitigates their screening and monitoring incentives. Robust to a battery of alternative tests, our findings introduce bank efficiency as a new mechanism explaining how banks that securitize loans insignificantly invest in screening and monitoring their potentially risky borrowers. In order to promote sustainable loan quality, this paper underlines the importance of improved regulation in highly competitive markets where loan securitization is more common.

Impacts of service quality on future intentions of loan purchase under the mediating of borrowers’ bank image and moderating Fatwa and Sharia supervisory board reputation

The purpose of this study is to test the moderating role of fatwa and Sharia supervisory board unit reputation in the relationship between service quality dimensions and borrowers’ bank image. It will also assess the mediating role of borrowers’ bank image in the relationship between service quality dimensions and future purchase intentions of loans. Questionnaire surveys are used to collect data by convenience sampling from the loan borrowers in Saudi Arabian Islamic banks. Structural equation modeling was performed to analyze 370 usable responses. The study finds that service quality dimensions have varying effects on loans future purchase intentions, the borrowers’ bank image fully and partially mediates the relationship between service quality dimensions and loans future purchase intentions (LFPI), and the fatwa and Sharia supervisory board reputation moderating the influence of service quality responsiveness on borrowers’ bank image. Bank image and fatwa and Sharia supervisory board reputation influences on future purchase intention were assessed by personal loan borrowers, and future studies could be conducted on other bank loan borrowers (corporate) according to their difference in the goal of loaning. The bank managers should be aware of the fatwa board's reputation influences on borrowers’ bank image and loan future purchase intentions. This research adds to the existing body of reputation and image management literature in the Islamic banking context by comprehending how specified service quality dimensions can improve the borrowers’ bank image and increase loan purchase intentions. The study is the first attempt to discover empirical support to the role of fatwa and Sharia supervisory board reputation in increasing the bank’s image and loans future purchase intentions at Islamic banks.

Borrow low, lend high: Credit arbitrage by sophisticated investors

We document that some investors arbitrage by borrowing and lending at the same time on Renrendai, one of the largest peer-to-peer lending platforms in China. They borrow at an annual interest rate of 7.31% and lend at 12.53% to earn the spread. Compared with non-arbitrageurs, arbitrageurs have larger portfolios and they diversify default risk by lending smaller amounts to many borrowers. Moreover, arbitrageurs are able to identify quality loans with lower risk and higher return, and thereby earn 1.19% higher risk-adjusted return than non-arbitrageurs do. As a result, 706 arbitrageurs earn 1.5 million yuan in 3 years. However, unsuccessful investments Granger cause some arbitrageurs to default, suggesting that arbitrageurs may increase platform risk. After the platform employ big data and reform the loan pricing mechanism from borrower-determined to platform-determined, loan interest rate decreases from 12.49% to 10.15%, and arbitrage phenomenon no longer exists. These findings suggest that arbitrageurs are highly sophisticated investors who make profits by utilizing financial leverage, diversifying credit risk, and identifying quality loans. Meanwhile, regulators should closely monitor arbitrage behaviors and constantly evaluate their consequences.

Loan Securitization in China's Financial Reform — Based on Evidence from Thirty-five Listed Banks in China

This paper studies loan securitization in China's financial reform. By using Logit and Tobit model to study 35 Chinese listed commercial bank's data from 2012 to 2019, the author employs the factor analysis to summarize the information from some financial indicators that reveals banks' securitization determinants. The author also conducts a sensitive analysis and a credit-deposit relationship estimation to examine the impacts of loan securitization. It is found that determinants of China's banks' securitization include cost advantage exploitation and performance promotion. The incentive of risk transfer involves risks from stock market rather than non-performing loan. There is little evidence that loan securitization improves the income structure of banks and the investment efficiency of financial market. Moreover, the credit-deposit relationship of securitized banks is improved. The paper concludes that China's loan securitization market welcomes large banks with high quality loan rather than small banks. Default risks of banks themselves rather than that of loan customers affect bank's securitization decision more. Safe and high-yield spread business is still the best investment of loan securitization proceeds. The loan securitization market should be developed continuously and rapidly, which is of great implications to China's financial reform.

Board of directors and earnings management: conventional and Islamic banks

ABSTRACT This study examines how the board of directors (BOD) of Islamic banks (IBs) might affect earnings management differently, compared to BOD of conventional banks (CBs). Our results indicate that banks in the MENA region that promote BOD independence incur less earnings management. Distinguishing between CBs and IBs, we document higher loan quality and credit policy at IBs. Moreover, smaller BOD size and board independence decrease earnings management at IBs. Findings suggest that agency theory might not accommodate the agency conflicts at IBs, since it neglects stakeholders’ behavioural patterns. Thus, these results suggest the need to shape directors’ financial acumen at IBs.

Impact of extreme weather episodes on the Philippine banking sector – Evidence using branch-level supervisory data

There is growing recognition that natural disasters and severe weather-related events pose risks that can potentially and unintentionally affect the financial performance of the banking system. This study provides further indication that severe weather conditions have an impact on the financial performance of smaller banking units. The paper first constructs a regional quarterly rainfall damage index (RDI) based on data from weather stations across the country. A regional branch-level database from supervisory reports is then compiled based on 11,000 banking units from the Bangko Sentral’s (BSP) Branch Regional Information System (BRIS). Using the dynamic panel generalized method of moments (GMM), we find evidence of a deterioration in branch-level loan growth and loan quality as savings and time deposit liabilities contract and nonperforming loans surge following extreme rainfall events from 2014 to 2018. These are particularly evident in regions most vulnerable to severe rainfall episodes and to branches of universal and commercial banks as well as those of rural and cooperative banks. However, the overall negative impact on profitability seems to eventually taper off. These findings are robust across different specifications and alternative estimation methods such as fixed effects and panel vector autoregression estimations.

Mortgage loan demand and banks’ operational efficiency

Using data for 6740 U.S. banks from 1996 to 2016, we consider whether mortgage loan demand is a key determinant of banks’ cost efficiency and management quality. We estimate mortgage loan demand from loan-level applications at individual banks, and we estimate bank efficiency and management quality score from banks’ structural models. In line with theoretical considerations around economies of scale, our results show that loan amount demand improves cost efficiency, but the number of loan applications reduces cost efficiency. In contrast, mortgage loan demand has an economically less significant effect on management quality score. We also find that loan demand is an important factor in shaping banks’ loan quality, above and beyond operational efficiency.