Loan Quality Research Articles

Asset Quality & Risk Management Practices - An Analysis on Yes Bank

Indian banks have a dual challenge of dealing with bad loans on one hand and hurrying to be fully BASEL III compliant on the other. Both the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Government of India are using various approaches over the past two decades to help banks. Several different experiences are obtained by domestic and global banks in handling the non-performing loans (NPL) problem. Yes Bank Limited is India’s 4 th largest private sector bank. It has the industry-best NPA ratios and is renowned for its best practises in the banking industry. Can risk management practices and focus on asset quality help banks maintain loan quality and even stop loans from not slipping into the vicious Non-Performing Asset (NPA) cycle? Data from quarterly & annual reports and other reports is collected to understand management philosophy and asset quality dimensions such as NPA ratio, provisioning coverage ratio, concentration of NPAs, priority sector lending and restructuring of accounts. As the bank evolved from a mid-size bank into a large-size bank in the last 14 years, it gives an opportunity to pose the question - Will NPA size increase as bank transformed from a mid-sized bank to a large bank? Will knowledge-driven sectoral approach to assist customers in their business by lending and offering industry specific financial solutions help the bank? Can technology be used to predict and give early warnings before loans turns sour?

Bank ownership concentration, board of directors and loan portfolios' quality: evidence from the Tunisian banking sector

This paper examines the impact of banks' corporate governance mechanisms in terms of ownership structure, board size and composition on the loan quality in the Tunisian banking sector. To do so we use panel data method and a sample that contains the ten largest banks in Tunisia over the period 2001-2012. Our main findings show that ownership concentration worsens loan quality in the Tunisian banking sector. However, the presence of independent members in the board of directors improves loan quality through better monitoring actions. Our findings also suggest that Tunisian banks with CEO duality manage better their loans.

The impact of ECB loan valuation metrics on third-party loan pricing: A EU firm perspective

This paper delves into the implications for the bank behaviour about firm loan pricing conditions of the new direction undertaken by supervisory and regulatory authorities in the aftermath of the deterioration of the loan portfolio quality that hit EU banks. The 2014 AQR exercise embraces the new direction and extensively uses debt service coverage measures to assess a firm’s loan quality. We, therefore, check whether the DSCR has influenced debt pricing conditions by analysing a panel of 655 listed EU firms from 2009 to 2017. Our findings show that Z-score is unable to discriminate between high and low credit risk firms. The DSCR becomes significant only after 2014, highlighting the incremented importance of this ratio in the bank’s loan pricing determination. Our work contributes to the literature investigating third-party interdependencies with the interplay between lender-borrower relationship and loan pricing and further extends the literature on creditworthiness metrics beyond their mere default-prediction ability (Beaver, 1966; Houghton & Woodliff, 1987). Our results highlight the relevance of the DSCR in the bank’s loan pricing determination and inform firm managers about the drivers that influence the cost of debt thereby enhancing their operational and financial planning.

Prediction Models for Bank Failure: ASEAN Countries

The paper analyses how global financial crisis effects the performance of banks. This study further estimate the determinants of banks failure on a sample of banks in ASEAN countries namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Cambodia, Thailand, Philippine, Singapore, and Vietnam. We define a bank as having failed when its profitability, equity, and loan quality are below a minimum standard. Besides bank-specific variables (microeconomic variables), some macroeconomic variables have been considered in this study. The findings reveal that during global finance crisis, the performance of the banks is at its weakest before its significant recovery. The findings show that the banking failure is positively linked to cost inefficiency, debt to equity ratio, an inflation rate, but negatively related to profitability. The findings suggest that cost inefficiency, can serve as a foundation for corrective action to be considered by banking authorities in the future.

The Sensitivity of Bank Performance to Local Housing Prices - Evidence from Diversified and Local Banks

This paper investigates the performance sensitivity of geographically diversified and non-diversified banks to local housing prices in the United States. We find that despite enduring the limitation of risk diversification, local banks experience a lower performance sensitivity to housing prices than their diversified counterparts. The difference in sensitivity between the two types of banks is pronounced in bear (but not in bull) housing markets. Further analysis shows that local banks better manage their loan quality, and diversified banks encourage more risk taking. The findings are robust to addressing the endogeneity problems of local housing markets and geographic diversification strategy of banks. Taken together, our findings highlight the local advantage of non-diversified banks and explain why they coexistent with diversified banks even after the consolidation waves following bank deregulation.

Asset Transfer Measurement Rules

We study the design of measurement rules when banks engage in loan transfers in secondary credit markets. Our model incorporates two standard frictions: 1) banks' monitoring incentives decrease in loan transfers, and 2) banks have private information about loan quality. Under only the monitoring friction, we find that the optimal measurement rule sets the same measurement precision regardless of bank characteristics, and strikes a balance between disciplining banks' monitoring efforts vs. facilitating efficient risk sharing. However, under both frictions, uniform measurement rules are no longer optimal but induce excessive retention, thus inhibiting efficient risk sharing. We show that the optimal measurement rule should be contingent on the amount of loan transfers. In particular, measurement decreases in the amount of loan transfers and no measurement should be allowed when banks have transferred most of their loans. We relate our results to current accounting standards for asset transfers.

Board characteristics and performance of Indian banks

This paper aims at investigating the impact of variables explaining board characteristics of Indian banks on their performance. Forty eight Indian banks, covering the time period from 2008-2009 to 2017-2018 have been included in the sample. The variables explaining board characteristics of Indian banks which have been included are board size, CEO duality, board independence, gender diversity, age and tenure of the CEO and the chairperson. After incorporating other bank specific variables such as net interest margin, burden ratio, bank capital, liquidity, size, loan quality and macroeconomic variables such as economic growth and inflation, the results show that banks with female CEOs, younger CEOs and CEOs with larger tenures perform better than banks with male CEOs, older CEOs and CEOs with smaller tenures. The other variables representing board characteristics which have come out to be significant determinants of bank performance are board size and tenure of chairperson of the board.

Non-performing loans and bank corporate governance: conceptual framework and literature review

This paper aims to accurately distinguish non-performing loans (NPLs) notion from some related concepts and provides the theoretical background and empirical literature review of these loans. This displays bank efficiency studies which consider bad loans and reports previous researches on NPLs determinants. Banks' efficiency studies have empirically proven the direct effect of bad loans on banks' production process. Researches on NPLs factors have shown that these loans are affected by both macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants. Moreover, loan quality can be influenced by bank corporate governance (CG). But, this remains implicitly studied though the apparent failures and weaknesses in CG. Thus, we cite the few studies which examine the influence of CG on bank loan quality. To do so, we state the CG theories and discuss the special features distinguishing banks from non-financial institutions. This review represents an historical record for researchers who aim to examine NPLs topic in the future.

Modern Approach to Formation of the Banking Sector Development Trajectory

The results of the study topical issue on effective development of the banking sector with an emphasis on banks with domestic capital are summarized in the article; the modern approach to formatting the trajectory of such development is substantiated. The factors influencing the development of the banking sector are systematized. External and internal factors are distinguished. The supranational and national levels are defined for the group of external factors. Supranational factors are related to globalization and integration. First of all, these are crisis phenomena in the world economy and financial system, the liberalization of capital movements. External factors at the national level mostly have a negative impact on the development of the banking sector. It is shown that certain external factors of the national level depend on supranational ones, and internal factors depend on national ones. Internal factors are grouped into those that have a positive and negative impact on the development of the banking sector. The characteristic of the most significant factors is given, their mutual influence is shown. Factors such as the dangerous level of competitive internalization due to the presence of foreign banks in the Ukrainian banking market, the high level of loans and deposits dollarization, low quality of assets and loans have a negative impact on the development of the banking sector. The influence of internal factors on the development of the banking sector is determined. It is proved using dynamic (simulation) modeling based on an impulse process that the development of the banking sector is significantly influenced by the factor of dangerous level of competitive internalization. It is established that such stabilizing factors as the growth of demand for banking services, increasing confidence in the banking system and stabilization of the national currency together compensate for the destabilizing effect of any negative factor, including competitive internalization. The formation of positive internal factors will contribute to the progressive trajectory of the banking sector development, in particular banks with domestic capital.

Credit Risk, Economic Growth and Profitability of Banks

The determinants of banking profitability targeting the UAE banking sector was the main purpose of this study. There are different factors that affect the profitability of banks in UAE, the importance of each factor will be tested using regression models. By using a dataset of 14 banks for the period 2008-2016. Based on the findings the most important factor to improve the banking profitability are increase non-interest income, as well as the positive impact of economic growth on banking profitability. The study concluded that credit risk is one of the most important negative effects affecting the banks' financial performance by increasing non-performing loans and reducing the quality of total loans, which requires UAE banks to focus on increasing non-interest income and avoiding risk when lending to customers in addition to being cautious about it.

The External Debt Problem of Developing Countries

The article is aimed at researching the problem of external debt of developing countries. The current status of external debt of developing countries is analyzed. The growing demand for investors, combined with the growing number of firms looking to take on large debts, has led to a deterioration in underwriting standards and the credit quality of such loans. The grounded relevance of the use of borrowing resources today is not necessarily a bad thing, even on the contrary – it is one of the most effective ways to stimulate the growth of the economy. When these resources are used targeted and efficiently, they generate more revenue for the borrower. But this gets worse when loans are used inefficiently, that is when they stimulate excessive consumption rather than bring in additional benefits. The author concluded that the reasons for the current fears began long before the crisis of 2008. A debt is not a bad instrument if it is used to finance investments that make a profit or create assets that are worth more than the debt itself. It’s hard to find such data, but if we trace the tendency of global growth and compare it to the tendency of debt accumulation, we’ll see that doesn’t happen. Therefore, it seems that the situation is out of control, i.e., debts continue to accumulate, excessive accumulation of loan portfolios increases, and low interest rates imply the survival of companies and countries. This leads to liquid risks with the expiration of the debt repayment period. Governments have been addicted to increased loans – none of the more developed economies could cope with a possible tightening of monetary policy. This means that when the time comes to severely lower the credit shoulder, economic growth will suffer. Central banks, in turn, find themselves trapped because maintaining such loose monetary policy and a high credit shoulder poses a risk of forming the price bubbles. It is determined that while rates remain at current low levels, investors will be looking for a bigger return, which means taking more risk – this, in turn, could trigger the «butterfly effect», causing destruction to the entire financial system.

Relationships among earnings quality, bank monitoring, and cost of bank loans: evidence from Japan

Earnings quality is frequently used as a proxy for information risk in accounting contexts. Following previous literature, I analyse the relationship between earnings quality and the cost of bank loans in Japan. I hypothesise and test how bank monitoring affects the relationship between earnings quality and the cost of loans. I find that total earnings quality, innate earnings quality generated from economic fundamentals, and discretionary earnings quality driven by managerial discretion over accounting affect the cost of bank loans. Additionally, I find that bank monitoring mitigates the effect of discretionary earnings quality on loan pricing. Empirical results support my predictions grounded in information risk and previous banking literature. Introducing bank monitoring to my research confirms and extends the previous literature.

Risk and Return of Online Channel Adoption in the Banking Industry

Online banking has become an important distribution channel for commercial banks. We construct a bank-specific indicator of online channel adoption to study the risk and return of online channels based on a sample of 118 Chinese banks in the period 2002-2016. Our empirical results find that online channel adoption improves the profit efficiency (i.e., positive return) of the adopting banks. Even though cost efficiency deteriorates, such improvement can be attributed to the rise in non-interest income efficiency. In reference to risk management, online channel adoption weakens the loan quality of the adopting banks, which also raises their solvency risk accordingly. Overall, our results suggest that online channel adoption alters the risk-return trade-off of adopting banks. Such risk-return effects are heterogeneous depending on the size, management skill and labour intensity of adopting banks. However, there is no significant return related to the costly content enrichment of online channels. Finally, our results are robust to alternative specifications, alternative sample selection, alternative measures of bank efficiency and risk, alternative estimation methods, and omitted variable biases.

Bank Competition and Information Production

We show that competition adversely affects the specialness of bank lending. In particular, we observe that the positive abnormal return on the borrowing firm's stock after the announcement of a bank loan is reduced in US states that deregulate interstate branching.The negative effect of competition on the value of bank loans is present only for ex-ante opaque firms (i.e., firms with few tangible assets and bank-dependent borrowers) and for banks that presumably rely more on soft information (i.e., small banks).Moreover, we find that the probability of a covenant violation in a syndicated deal and charge-off rates on small business loans are higher in deregulated states. Our results suggest that competition decreases loan quality because it reduces banks' incentives to invest in information.

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment Inflows on Nonperforming Loans: The Case of UAE

Banking sector is at a risk of worsening loan quality which is a major threat to the stability of financial system. The impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on nonperforming loans (NPLs) in United Arab Emirates (UAE) is empirically investigated in this study. The data from 2008 to 2017 is collected and analysed through ordinary least square (OLS) technique. The findings reveal that FDI inflows reduced the size of NPLs during the economic crisis. Also, the combined effect of higher FDI inflows and bank efficiency reduced the size of NPLs for banks while the combined effect of FDI inflows and better institutions, such as strong regulatory quality, did not reduce the size of NPLs but rather increased the size of NPLs. The findings have implications. The findings contribute to the literature to establish a link between FDI inflows and NPLs by examining the link between FDI inflows and NPLs in the context of banks in the UAE.

Bank Due Diligence in the Business Cycle

The quality of bank lending is increasingly viewed as a force driving the buildup and unfolding of crises. In a dynamic general equilibrium model, we show that banks' access to liquidity and the values of loan portfolios govern banks' incentives and effectiveness in producing information on loans. Consistent with granular loan-level evidence from U.S. banks, the calibrated model predicts that loan due diligence deteriorates during expansions and intensifies during contractions. This countercyclicality attenuates investment and output effects of liquidity shocks but can moderately amplify loan quality shocks. Credit policies may dilute stabilizing e¤ects of due diligence.

Political Cycles and Bank Lending in Russia

State-owned banks tend to increase lending before elections for the purpose of boosting the reelection odds of incumbent politicians. We employ monthly data on individual banks to study whether Russian banks increased their lending before presidential elections during 2004–2019, a period covering four presidential elections. In contrast to the literature, we find that both state-owned and private banks increased their lending before presidential elections. This result stands for all loans, as well as separately for firm and household loans. The pre-election lending surge is followed by a deterioration of loan quality the following year, indicating the lending increase was not driven by higher growth prospects or some positive economic shock. The effect is substantially greater for large banks and banks more involved in lending activities. Our main finding that all types of banks in Russia increase their lending before presidential elections supports the view that the authorities in an electoral autocracy like Russia can influence lending of both private and state-owned banks for political reasons.

The Vanishing Interest Income of Chinese Banks

Chinese banks likely have more non-performing loans (NPLs) than officially reported. As hidden NPLs earn no interest income, loan quality problems may erode the gross interest income of banks. Using stochastic frontier analysis, we estimate the interest income of a hypothetical profit-maximising Chinese bank with no credit quality problems. Taking the deviation of actual interest income from the calculated efficient income, we then attempt to reveal the amount of hidden NPLs in Chinese banks. Our results uncover a substantial weakening in the quality of Chinese bank loan portfolios in 2016. Big banks are found to have the largest reservoirs of hidden NPLs. Dependence on interbank funding also seems to be a determinant in the size of hidden NPL portfolios.

Entropy method of constructing a combined model for improving loan default prediction: A case study in China

In recent years, credit scoring has become an efficient tool to assist financial institutions in identifying potential default borrowers, and the combined model is widely viewed as a useful vehicle. In this study, after pre-processing based on random forest, we propose a combined logistic regression algorithm and artificial neural network model to improve the predictive performance based on actual data from a rural commercial bank under the condition that loan quality directly affects the profitability of the bank. The combined model requires a step with an entropy method to determine the entropy weights of the logistic regression model and artificial neural network model. The experimental results reveal that the proposed combined model outperforms the two base models on four evaluation metrics: accuracy (ACC), area under the curve (AUC), Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic (KS), and Brier score (BS). Moreover, the model is superior to a state-of-the-art ensemble model, stacking.

Impact of Competition on Social Performance of MFIs: Comparative Analysis of India and Bangladesh

Although studies encompassing the different aspect of microfinance like sustainability of microfinance institutions (MFIs), role of microfinance in poverty alleviation, etc., have enriched the literature from time to time, studies on competition and its impact on social performance of MFIs are scarce. There also exists lacking consensus as to how can competition influence MFIs’ social performance. The empirical evidence reveals duality of opinion. With information asymmetry, competition enhances borrowers’ indebtedness and lowers expected loan repayment and impeding loan quality. Furthermore, in order to overcome these problems, MFIs would engage in more screening that raises their operational costs. This encumbers the sustainability of MFIs. Thus, the socially oriented MFIs, in order to remain sustainable, start targeting the less poor borrowers. But the other view holds that as competition intensifies, it provokes the MFIs to remain committed with the social objective and to strive to retain the clients. The theory on impact of competition on the social performance of MFIs may be either positive or negative, which calls for further investigation. Against this backdrop, this article attempts to assess the impact of competition on social performance of MFIs in India and Bangladesh. The study is conducted over 53 MFIs from India and 20 MFIs from Bangladesh on which a complete set of data is available. The study period is confined to 9 years from 2009 to 2017. In order to establish the association between competition and MFIs’ social performance, panel data regression is used. The study takes into account the depth and breadth of outreach as the dependent variable. The study uses panel data regression to establish the association between competition and social performance of MFIs. The empirical analysis reveals that competition has no significant association with any of the measures of social performance. This implies that social performance in the sector is explained by other factors. Amongst the country-specific variables, it is clear from analyses that gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation are important determining factors of MFIs’ social performance. Country of origin (COO) of the MFIs is one of the determining factors for social performance as it is found to be significant for three out of the four models. It is also evident from the analyses that Bangladeshi MFIs have a greater impact on MFIs’ social performance in terms of outreach in comparison to Indian MFIs. While for percentage of female borrowers (PFB), Indian MFIs account for greater depth of outreach in comparison to Bangladesh.