An approach for lubrication reliability analysis of spur gear systems considering the randomness of external load and surface roughness is presented. The instantaneous failure probability of gear lubrication is captured by a gear stochastic dynamics model and a reliability model of elastohydrodynamic lubrication (EHL). The stochastic dynamics model is adopted to obtain the numerical characteristics of meshing force. The reliability model is established based on a mixed EHL line contact film thickness formula. The first-order second-moment method is employed for predicting failure probability of lubrication. The lubrication reliability of a gear pair excited by different intensity random load is studied. The results show that the lubrication failure probability in dedendum and single meshing region are higher than addendum.
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