Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Research Articles

On the Portability of ML–Mc as a Depth Discriminant for Small Seismic Events Recorded at Local Distances

AbstractWe show that ML–Mc is a viable and regionally portable depth discriminant, and therefore may contribute to nuclear test ban treaty verification. A recent study found that the difference between local magnitude (ML) and coda duration magnitude (Mc) discriminates shallow seismic events (mining blasts, mining‐induced earthquakes, and shallow tectonic earthquakes) from deeper tectonic earthquakes in the Utah region. The shallow seismic events had anomalously high Mc values, with increasingly negative ML–Mc values as depth decreased. Here, we evaluate the performance of ML–Mc as a depth discriminant in three new regions and find that ML–Mc increases between 0 and 9 km depth in all cases. Initially, we investigated ML–Mc as a function of depth for naturally occurring earthquakes in the region around Yellowstone National Park, as recorded by the University of Utah Seismograph Stations. For 3358 Yellowstone earthquakes with well‐constrained depths, we found ML–Mc increased 0.030±0.007 magnitude units (m.u.) for each 1 km increase in depth up to 10 km depth. Next, we examined ML–Mc values for anthropogenic seismicity in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, as recorded by the National Earthquake Information Center. For 1628 events with well‐constrained depths, we computed a slope for ML–Mc of 0.022±0.010 m.u./km. Finally, we analyzed ML–Mc for 28,722 well‐located earthquakes in Italy, as recorded by the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, and found an ML–Mc slope of 0.018±0.001 m.u./km. In each case, the quoted error bounds represent 95% confidence regions that exclude zero, implying that the depth dependence of ML–Mc is statistically significant. We performed several robustness tests in which we varied the criterion used to define a well‐constrained depth and the depth range used in the linear fit. In nearly all cases, we found a positive slope for ML–Mc versus depth at a confidence level above 95%.

On the usability of event zero time determinations using radioxenon isotopic activity ratios given the real atmospheric background observations

This work focuses on the usability of event zero time determination using xenon isotopic activity ratios. Two data sets from Nevada underground nuclear test and Fukushima accident debris were used to calculate the age of radioxenon release by considering three kinds of radioactivity release radionuclide sources: nuclear explosion scenarios, nuclear power reactor release and medical isotopes production facilities release. Typical nuclear power reactor releases were characterized and reference values are proposed for six isotopic activity ratios, which data can be considered as reference point of nuclear reactor effluents at the time of their release obtained from real observations. The same reference values of isotopic activity ratio are given for medical isotopes production facilities releases. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the use of zero-time calculation for source characterization under the assumption that a hypothesis about the event time is made. The event time information may come from a seismo-acoustic event of interest or an inverse atmospheric transport simulation or other context information. For both data sets used in this study, the age precisions are calculated and the time precision difference is evaluated and used as a parameter for the characterization of each radionuclide event. Almost all radioxenon isotopic activity ratios are found to correctly identifying the source type of the radionuclide events studied in this work. The results from this radionuclide events characterization study may be helpful for event screening activities of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO).

Ionospheric Detection of Explosive Events

AbstractThe ionospheric response to explosions which occur at or below the Earth's surface has been noted since the first detonations of nuclear devices during the early period of aboveground testing. Acoustic gravity waves and traveling ionospheric disturbances were detected in association with test explosions carried out by the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in Novaya Zemlya in 1961. While research in this area has continued, the standards accepted by the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty for detection and confirmation of nuclear explosions have been based on (1) seismic, (2) hydroacoustic, (3) infrasound, and (4) radionuclide monitoring from ground detectors. We suggest that ionospheric sensing offers a complementary methodology that may allow for robust confirmation of explosive events. One method of ionospheric monitoring of explosive events is analysis of total electron content (TEC), available by processing data from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers distributed globally on land masses. Traveling ionospheric disturbances observed by their signature in TEC have been used to detect and confirm mine collapses, mine blasts, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and meteorite strikes as well as underground nuclear tests. While an integrated measurement like TEC is not as sensitive to small‐amplitude density perturbations as other methods, the existence of large networks of continuously operating GNSS stations makes this an intriguing new monitoring asset. We report on the current capabilities for detection of explosions via the ionosphere, the outstanding challenges, and prospects for future developments that have potential to augment the current standards for detection and confirmation of nuclear detonations. By leveraging the worldwide network of GNSS receivers, robust confirmation of impulsive events is possible. This methodology complements existing technologies approved by the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. The article outlines background theory, new approaches to monitoring of explosions, and challenges that remain to be addressed.

History of Los Alamos Participation in Active Experiments in Space

Beginning with the Teak nuclear test in 1958, Los Alamos has a long history of participation in active experiments in space. The last pertinent nuclear tests were the five explosions as part of the Dominic series in 1962. The Partial Test Ban Treaty signed in August 1963 prohibited all test detonations of nuclear weapons except for those conducted underground. Beginning with the “Apple” thermite barium release in June 1968 Los Alamos has participated in nearly 100 non-nuclear experiments in space, the last being the NASA-sponsored “AA-2” strontium and europium doped barium thermite releases in the Arecibo beam in July of 1992. The rationale for these experiments ranged from studying basic plasma processes such as gradient- driven structuring and velocity-space instabilities to illuminating the convection of plasmas in the ionosphere and polar cap to ionospheric depletion experiments to the B.E.A.R. 1-MeV neutral particle beam test in 1989. This report reviews the objectives, techniques and diagnostics of Los Alamos participation in active experiments in space.

A radioxenon detection system using PIPS and CZT

This paper introduces and describes the initial characterizations of a prototype beta-gamma coincidence detection system that utilizes a PIPSBox and two coplanar CdZnTe detectors for atmospheric radioxenon identification and nuclear test ban treaty verification. Coincidences between four independent detecting bodies are identified in real time via a custom coincidence module implemented in a field-programmable gate array. The system is compact, maintains simple readout electronics, and provides high resolution radiation detection at room temperature operation. Preliminary measurements using 137Cs and 131mXe were conducted to optimize various system parameters to achieve optimal energy resolution of key spectral features. The purpose of this research was to explore the utility of these materials and methods for radioxenon monitoring in the International Monitoring System.

Ambassador Bonnie Jenkins: Reducing threats, increasing diversity

ABSTRACTIn this interview, Ambassador Bonnie Jenkins talks about her work on arms control and nuclear security and discusses differences between the Obama and Trump administrations on issues including nuclear weapons modernization and the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. She highlights the scarcity of women and people of color in national security, explains why that matters, and describes how the organization she founded last year – Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation – is working to diversify the field.

Optimisation of radioxenon measurement for comprehensive nuclear test-ban treaty

ABSTRACTThe international monitoring system (IMS) has been developed to verify compliance with the comprehensive nuclear test-ban treaty (CTBT) and radionuclide monitoring stations are the smoking gun for underground nuclear explosions identification. One of the main objectives of the verification regime is to improve the sensitivity of measurements providing background reduction and, as a result, decrease the minimum detectable activity (MDA) values. At this ENEA laboratory an anticoincidence system has been developed: the system is comprised of a high purity germanium (HPGe) detector surrounded by a low–background shield and two plastic scintillators able to detect coincident cosmic-ray interactions. Tests conducted with the anticoincidence system have shown a reduction of the Compton continuum that contributes to the spectrum background and the measured MDA values, compared to those obtained using the standard system, decreased for all the four radioxenon isotopes.

Machine learning on waveform spectral analysis of nuclear explosion from broadband seismic station in Indonesia

Machine learning of seismic waveform is core component to realize the characteristics of signal. The nuclear explosion is Wavelet signal processing is broadly used for analysis of real time seismic signal. The numerous wavelet filters are developed by spectral synthesis using machine learning python to realize the signal characteristics. Our paper aims to solve and evaluating the frequencies-energy characteristic of nuclear explosion. The wavelet method by Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) is clearly to identify of amplitudes and frequency-energy from component of nuclear test performed by the North Korea that occurred on September 03, 2017. Finally, by machine learning python with Morlet wavelet allows good time resolution for identified and performed of Broadband Seismic from Comprehensive Nuclear-Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) in Indonesia.

Bayesian association of multiple infrasound events using long-range propagation models

The International Monitoring System (IMS) is a worldwide network of monitoring stations that helps to verify compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty by detecting events that might indicate violations of the treaty. The IMS uses a combination of four technologies: seismological, radionuclide, hydroacoustic, and infrasound. An important limitation of these technologies is related to the fact that the structure of the propagation medium is partially unknown. This is especially true for the infrasound technology, and indeed, a current trend is to undertake the impact of atmospheric variability on waveforms using computational models. Simulation-based predictions, however, are inherently limited by large uncertainties. Further, many thousands of detections are recorded per week and thus, the problem of calculating plausible waveforms for subsets of detections often leads to computational demands that exceed available resources. In this paper, we present a new powerful statistical model for analyzing and interpreting large-scale IMS data. The method is based on a parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm and full-wave modeling. The method can detect association when multiple, interacting events are present in the data. The posterior probability of no association can be estimated, thereby providing a way to reduce the false alarm rate in operational-like environments.

Decolonizing arms control: the Asian African Legal Consultative Committee and the legality of nuclear testing, 1960–64

ABSTRACTThis article seeks to contribute to a global history of disarmament by arguing for the importance of a largely forgotten moment in the history of arms control, namely, the report on the legality of nuclear testing issued by the Asian African Legal Consultative Committee (AALCC) in 1964. By focusing on the legality of nuclear testing during peacetime, the AALCC report was able to advance its objective of delegitimizing the possession of nuclear weapons without confronting the issue directly, a battle that militarily weak countries could not win. Using international law to compensate for political marginality was a novel anti-nuclear weapons strategy that would be adopted by other campaigns in decades to come. The article offers a critical genealogy of the dominant narrative of international arms control by situating the AALCC report within the historical context of decolonization and pointing out the importance of taking seriously the influence of global public opinion on superpower negotiating tactics. This approach adds a new dimension to our understanding of the global pressures shaping negotiations over the Partial Test Ban Treaty.

The Incremental Militarization of Outer Space: A Threshold Analysis

The overarching theme of this article is not to revisit existing debates surrounding the application of jus ad bellum or jus in bello parameters to the “peculiarities” of outer space. Rather, this article examines the major treaties that regulate a States’ military activities in outer space (including, for example, the Outer Space Treaty, Limited Test Ban Treaty, Liability Convention and, PPWT), alongside Charter norms, such as Article 2(4)of the UN Charter, to pinpoint the threshold of breach, violation and incremental militarization of outer space. With respect to the PPWT, it is important to note at this juncture that it remains a “proposal”, and at best, lex ferenda. A natural consequence from this analysis will be to underscore the extent to which “toleration” of such violations by States, and the international community as a whole, has resulted in the incremental militarization of space.

Reflections on Los Alamos infrasound research

Researchers at Los Alamos National Laboratory began work in infrasound research in 1982 under Department of Energy funding. This beginning was to investigate the generation and propagation of surface ground motion generated atmospheric infrasound signals. Infrasound arrays were operated to measure the infrasound signals at near regional distances. The program was successful and continued until the end of US underground nuclear testing in 1992. During this time, data were collected on earthquakes, bolides and on various man-made high explosive tests. As work on the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty was continuing, Los Alamos, working with Sandia National Laboratory, fielded a prototype infrasound array following Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty guidelines, which operated from mid 1997 to 2007. More recent work emphasizes seismo-acoustic research in explosion monitoring, improving infrasound propagation models for better source location and analysis and the development of Python based tools. In this talk, I will highlight some aspects of the earlier and current Los Alamos activity.Researchers at Los Alamos National Laboratory began work in infrasound research in 1982 under Department of Energy funding. This beginning was to investigate the generation and propagation of surface ground motion generated atmospheric infrasound signals. Infrasound arrays were operated to measure the infrasound signals at near regional distances. The program was successful and continued until the end of US underground nuclear testing in 1992. During this time, data were collected on earthquakes, bolides and on various man-made high explosive tests. As work on the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty was continuing, Los Alamos, working with Sandia National Laboratory, fielded a prototype infrasound array following Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty guidelines, which operated from mid 1997 to 2007. More recent work emphasizes seismo-acoustic research in explosion monitoring, improving infrasound propagation models for better source location and analysis and the development of Python based tools. In thi...

The Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty: A neglected milestone of Environmental Politics

The Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty is considered an early example of bilateral cooperation between the two superpowers in the realm of arms control. Surprisingly, it is rarely mentioned as the key treaty that solved the global environmental crisis of nuclear pollution. This article revisits this issue through the lens of Constructive Environmental Politics, and explores why it is omitted from the list of the most important international environmental regulations.

Sherlock Holmes Meets Rube Goldberg: Fixing the Entry-into-Force Provisions of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) is widely heralded as the most important international legal instrument for arresting the nuclear arms race and impeding further nuclear proliferation. Concluded in 1996, the treaty has been signed by 183 countries and ratified by 166. But it has not yet entered into force, because of its unique requirement that it will not become operational for any state until it has been ratified by all forty-four countries designated in its Annex 2. Thirty-six of those Annex 2 states have ratified, but there is little prospect that the other eight (including the United States, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and others) will do so in the foreseeable future. In the meantime, certain parts of the CTBT are being provisionally applied, but other critical aspects are in abeyance, and the world’s unrequited demand for a fully effective prohibition on nuclear weapons testing has jeopardized the global nuclear security structure. This Article proposes a novel work-around, to achieve early implementation of the CTBT. Interested states should negotiate a second treaty, styled as an Implementing Agreement, through which they could promptly effectuate the CTBT among themselves, even if some Annex 2 states remained outside the regime. This approach would free the CTBT from the tyranny of a “veto power” currently held by each of the Annex 2 states, and would allow the treaty to grow organically, building toward eventual universal acceptance by entering into force now for a sizeable coalition of the willing – as all other important treaties have done. The legal mechanism for creating such an Implementing Agreement is unusual and cumbersome, but it follows an important international law precedent. The 1982 Law of the Sea Convention achieved widespread acceptance, but it, too, required substantial modification before its entry into force. There, the participating states successfully fashioned a 1994 Implementing Agreement to revise important elements. That document provides a useful template for the CTBT to emulate. This Article offers a draft of a CTBT Implementing Agreement, explaining how its waiver provisions would operate and how it would provide interested states a variety of alternative mechanisms for establishing a prompt, durable, and legally binding test ban regime.

In Situ Shape Estimation of Triangular Moored Hydrophone Arrays Using Ambient Signals

In this paper, a method is presented for correcting relative errors in the locations of individual sensors in a three-element bottom-moored array, using ambient signal arrivals recorded by the array. It has the benefit that knowledge of absolute source positions is not required to determine the relative shape of the array. The procedure is demonstrated using episodic ambient signal arrivals recorded by the southern array of the Wake Island hydrophone station, which is a component of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test Ban Treaty Organization's (CTBTO) International Monitoring System (IMS). The original coordinates of sensors 2 and 3 were adjusted by 75 and 115 m, respectively, removing approximately 4 $^{\circ}$ of error in estimating the arrival angles of signals. The estimated coordinates compared favorably with the results of a position revision by the CTBTO a year after the triad installation.

Cybersecurity: Exploring core concepts through six scenarios

ABSTRACTThe authors introduce and explain core concepts of cybersecurity through six engaging practical scenarios. Presented as case studies, the scenarios illustrate how experts may reason through security challenges managing trust and information in the adversarial cyber world. The concepts revolve around adversarial thinking, including understanding the adversary; defining security goals; identifying targets, vulnerabilities, threats, and risks; and devising defenses. They also include dealing with confidentiality, integrity, availability (known as the “CIA triad”), authentication, key management, physical security, and social engineering. The authors hope that these scenarios will inspire students to explore this vital area more deeply.The target audience is anyone who is interested in learningabout cybersecurity, including those with little to no background in cybersecurity. This article will also interest those who teach cybersecurity and are seeking examples and structures for explaining its concepts. For students and educators, the authors include selected misconceptions they observed in student responses to scenarios. The contributions are novel educational case studies, not original technical research.The scenarios comprise responding to an e-mail about lost luggage containing specifications of a new product, delivering packages by drones, explaining a suspicious database input error, designing a corporate network that separates public and private segments, verifying compliance with the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, and exfiltrating a USB stick from a top-secret government facility.

Composition dependence of dielectric properties in Pb(Zn1∕3Nb2∕3)O3–PbTiO3–BaTiO3(PZN–PT–BT) relaxor ferroelectric ceramics

Perovskite solid solution ceramics of PZN–PT–BT with several compositions were synthesized by solid-state reaction method. X-ray diffraction results indicate pure perovskite structures for all samples. Dielectric measurements show that the implicit Ba(Zn[Formula: see text]Nb[Formula: see text])O3(BZN) composition could broaden the diffusion phase transition (DPT) peaks and lower the [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] values. The observed dielectric properties may be caused by the increased cation disorder due to the substitution of barium onto the A-site and titanium onto the B-site.

Silicon PIN diode based electron-gamma coincidence detector system for Noble Gases monitoring

We present a new second generation SiPIN based electron-photon coincidence detector system developed by Lares Ltd. for use in the Noble Gas measurement systems of the International Monitoring System and the On-site Inspection verification regimes of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). The SiPIN provide superior energy resolution for electrons. Our work describes the improvements made in the second generation detector cells and the potential use of such detector systems for other applications such as In-Situ Kr-85 measurements for non-proliferation purposes.

Dwight Eisenhower and American Foreign Policy During the 1960s: An American Lion in Winter. By Richard M.Filipink, Jr.New York: Lexington Books, 2014. 133 pp.

Dwight Eisenhower and American Foreign Policy During the 1960s: An American Lion in Winter. By Richard M. Filipink, Jr. New York: Lexington Books, 2014. 133 pp. Richard M. Filipink, Jr. pierces through the mythology that still surrounds Dwight D. Eisenhower and portrays him as an extremely conservative ideologue and a Machiavellian politician shaping American foreign policy in the 1960s. The author makes a persuasive case that Eisenhower used his immense personal popularity to influence the foreign policy of John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson. Clearly, he consistently advocated a militaristic response to the many challenges these Democratic presidents faced in the Cold War. Unquestionably, Eisenhower was devious, intellectually disingenuous, and politically partisan. The author states, Once he was no longer in office, Eisenhower was clearly much more willing to support the use of force to obtain foreign policy goals (111). In fact, he was the same old Eisenhower. As president, he had, behind the scenes, habitually supported threatening or using force in Korea, Indochina, China, Iran, Guatemala, Lebanon, and Cuba. He carefully hid this militant belligerency from both the public and the press. President Eisenhower, a man of the middle path and a moderate Republican, is essentially mythological. Filipink shatters many of these falsehoods by showing him as extremely quarrelsome and taking contradictory stands on many issues before eventually taking a negotiated public position, while often holding the exact opposite point of view in private. Virtually all of the crises in foreign affairs that Kennedy and Johnson confronted have their origins in the Eisenhower administration. Eisenhower carefully maintained his reputation of being nonpartisan in foreign affairs, while, in reality, being highly partisan and extremely critical of the Democrats. Kennedy and Johnson reasonably feared the possibility that he would attack their foreign policy. Appeasing Eisenhower became an important theme for them. Kennedy, however, as Filipink properly points out, had a healthy disdain for Ike's foreign policy advice. Kennedy wisely rejected his counsel on sending U.S. troops to Laos. Eisenhower gave Kennedy a scathing critique of the Bay of Pigs, but then promised not to publicly embarrass or humiliate the new president. Kennedy then calmly took no military action with the construction of the Berlin Wall. All of these actions made him appear weak to Eisenhower. Yet, with his successful handling of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Kennedy adopted a very independent foreign policy. He negotiated a limited test ban treaty, which Eisenhower had opposed. …

The Fault is Not in Our Stars: Avoiding an Arms Race in Outer Space

The world is on the precipice of a new arms race in outer space, as China, Russia, the United States, and others undertake dramatic new initiatives in anti-satellite weaponry. These accelerated competitive efforts at space control are highly destabilizing, because developed societies have come to depend so heavily upon satellite services to support the entire civilian economy and the modern military apparatus; any significant threat or disruption in the availability of space assets would be massively, and possibly permanently, disruptive. International law regarding outer space developed with remarkable rapidity in the early years of the Space Age, but the process of formulating additional treaties and norms for space has broken down over the past several decades, and no additional legal instruments have emerged that could cope with today’s rising threats. This article therefore proposes three initiatives, none of which could suffice to solve the emerging problems, but perhaps they could provoke additional diplomacy, reinvigorating the prospects for rapprochement in space. Importantly, each of these three ideas has deep roots in other sectors of arms control, where they have served both to restore a measure of stability and to catalyze even more ambitious agreements in the longer term. The first proposal is for a declaratory regime of “No First Use” of specified space weapons; this would do little to directly alter states’ capabilities for space warfare, but could serve as a “confidence-building measure,” to temper their most provocative rhetoric and practices. The second concept is a “Limited Test Ban,” to interdict the most dangerous debris-creating developmental tests of new space weapons. Third is a suggestion for “Shared Space Situational Awareness,” which would create an international apparatus enabling all participants to enjoy the benefits of greater transparency, reducing the possibilities for secret malign or negligent behavior. In each instance, the article describes the proposal and its variations, assesses its possible contributions to space security, and displays the key precedents from other arms control successes. The article concludes by calling for additional, more far-reaching space diplomacy, in the hope that these relatively modest initial measures could provoke more robust subsequent negotiations.