Limit Order Submission Research Articles

Spoofing and pinging in foreign exchange markets

This paper investigates the susceptibility of foreign exchange (FX) spot markets to limit order submission strategies that are either intended to create a false impression of the state of the market (‘spoof orders’) or to extract hidden information from the market (‘ping orders’). Using a complete limit order book dataset from Electronic Broking Services (EBS), our findings suggest that spoofing is more likely to succeed in liquid markets, or on primary electronic trading platforms. Pinging, by contrast, might be more prevalent in illiquid markets, or on secondary electronic trading platforms.

Deep limit order book events dynamics

This paper analyzes the limit order book events arrival dependency structure using high-dimensional Hawkes processes. We seek for recurrent relationships among events from a set of 86 event types which in addition to transactions, includes limit order submissions and cancellations taking place up to the 20th depth level of the order book. We focus on BMW, SAP, and ADS, three liquid DAX 30 index stocks for which we have a microsecond stamped high-frequency dataset covering the 61 trading day period going from February 1 to March 31, 2013. For each stock, we build a tailored descriptive model by selecting recurrent events relationships. Estimated on a daily basis, we find that the selected models offer interesting data fitting performance, particularly for limit order submissions and cancellations occurring on the first five price levels of the order book. Finally, we use the comprehensive sets of estimated parameters to describe a global events arrival dynamics that we relate to the potential behaviors of market participants having different objectives and directional views.

Limit order submission risks, order choice, and tick size

We propose empirical measures of non-execution and picking-off risks and demonstrate that a minimum tick size reduction decreases non-execution risk but increases picking-off risk on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This results in a higher tendency to submit aggressive orders for some stocks and cancel limit orders for the others. We conclude that our two limit order submission risks are crucial for understanding the results of past empirical studies that examine how minimum tick size reduction impacts limit order submission risks and why traders become aggressive in their order choice. We further show that our proposed measures of non-execution and picking-off risks are better variables than are proxies for the two risks such as spread (which have been suggested by previous empirical studies) or transaction cost measured by the relative tick size when analyzing the determination of the order choice and/or evaluating a minimum tick size reduction policy.

Order Placement Strategies in High-Frequency Markets

I analyze order placement strategies by high-frequency traders (HFT) and non-HFT on Euronext Paris. Virtually all orders are limit orders submitted by fast traders, in most cases acting as market makers. Fast traders display high limit to market order ratios and their orders have lower ll rates, higher cancellation rates, and shorter lifetime than non-HFT orders. Liquidity taking orders are less costly for HFT than non-HFT whereas liquidity supplying orders are cheaper for non-HFT than HFT. As volatility rises, the ratio of limit order to market orders increases (decreases) for fast (slow) traders but fast traders become more conservative in their limit order submissions.

Dynamic limit order placement strategies: survival analysis with a multiple-spell duration model

This study investigates the multiple events that occur in the life of each limit order by utilising a survival analysis methodology with a multiple-spell duration model. The estimates suggest that the hazard rates of limit order event transitions are determined by a number of factors and their impacts depend on whether the initial order event is a limit order submission, partial execution or revision. The differences in estimates across initial order events increase as exchange latency reduces in recent years. Using a multiple-spell duration model to examine the full spectrum of events that occur in the life of a limit order is thus shown to be informative and essential in modelling dynamic limit order placement strategies.

Could Market Making be Profitable in The European Carbon Market?

We investigate when market making can be profitable in the European Carbon Futures market, by developing an order type selection rule, based solely on transaction level data. We employ a granular approach that uses an observable variable, i.e. trading intensity, to extract the liquidity and information price components and we investigate their impact on spreads, volatility and ultimately on the profitability of different order types. We find that market orders are always less profitable than limit orders. In addition, market makers are expected to derive most of their profits in a low trading intensity environment, mainly due to higher liquidity commissions and a lower probability of dealing with better informed agents. In contrast, an unconditional limit order submission strategy from an off-floor trader should not be preferred, apart from a medium trading intensity environment, where information and liquidity premia adequately compensate them for execution and information risk.

Depths and spreads in futures markets: Relationship with order execution, submission, and cancellation

AbstractThis paper examines the relationship between limit order submissions and liquidity. We find that there is a negative relationship between the limit order arrival rate and the depth at the best quotes (limit order queue length) and a positive relationship between submissions and bid–ask spreads. This is consistent with queuing theory, which predicts that an increase in the limit order arrival rate increases the queue length and the time to execution of a limit order. Consequently, limit order traders cover the increase in costs and risks associated with the increase in the time to execution of limit orders by increasing bid–ask spread.

Liquidity withdrawal in the FX spot market: A cross-country study using high-frequency data

This paper studies short-term liquidity withdrawal in the FX spot market for eight currency pairs. We include over 3 million limit order submissions, worth more than $5 trillion, and investigate the drivers of two different measures of volume-based liquidity. Overall, we find that market participants react differently to changes in the state of the market for different currency pairs. Moreover, the liquidity withdrawal process also differs depending on the perceived information content of new limit orders submitted. Finally, we document that a ‘liquidity illusion’ might exist in FX spot markets electronic trading platforms where algorithmic and high-frequency trading is prominent.

Modeling, simulation and inference for multivariate time series of counts using trawl processes

This article presents a new continuous-time modeling framework for multivariate time series of counts which have an infinitely divisible marginal distribution. The model is based on a mixed moving average process driven by Lévy noise, called a trawl process, where the serial correlation and the cross-sectional dependence are modeled independently of each other. Such processes can exhibit short or long memory. We derive a stochastic simulation algorithm and a statistical inference method for such processes. The new methodology is then applied to high frequency financial data, where we investigate the relationship between the number of limit order submissions and deletions in a limit order book.

The Impact of Strategic Limit Order Submissions on Foreign Exchange Market Liquidity

In this paper, we empirically investigate the short-term impact of human/algorithmic limit order submissions on the liquidity provision and withdrawal process of other human/algorithmic traders. Using a high-frequency dataset containing over 1.5 million limit orders in the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY foreign exchange spot markets (amounting to a limit order volume of approximately $2 trillion), we document three key findings. First, order-splitting strategies widely adopted by algorithmic traders to disguise the true order size seem to go detected and are perceived as more information-rich or predatory than orders of the corresponding size typically submitted by human traders. Second, the inverse relationship between limit order size and price aggressiveness is less consistent than expected – both concerning traders’ strategic order submissions and their impact on the liquidity withdrawal by others. Third, we find that traders appear to be more sensitive to limit orders submitted from the same side (non-execution risk) than to the opposite side of the order book (free option risk), but that the ‘recovery’ of the limit order book primarily is driven by a reassessment of free option risk.

Could Market Making Be Profitable in the European Carbon Market?

We investigate when market making can be profitable in the European Carbon Futures market, by developing an order type selection rule, based solely on transaction level data. We employ a granular approach that uses an observable variable, i.e. trading intensity, to extract the liquidity and information price components and we investigate their impact on spreads, volatility and ultimately on the profitability of different order types. We find that market orders are always less profitable than limit orders. In addition, market makers are expected to derive most of their profits in a low trading intensity environment, mainly due to higher liquidity commissions and a lower probability of dealing with better informed agents. In contrast, an unconditional limit order submission strategy from an off-floor trader should not be preferred, apart from a medium trading intensity environment, where information and liquidity premia adequately compensate them for execution and information risk.

Spoofing and Pinging in Foreign Exchange Markets

This paper investigates the susceptibility of FX spot markets to limit order submission strategies that are either intended to create a false impression of the state of the market (‘spoof orders’) or to extract hidden information in the market (‘ping orders’). Using a complete limit order book dataset from EBS, we study currency pairs that have mature algorithmic markets (EUR/USD and USD/JPY), as well as other G10 and emerging market currencies where EBS is used as a secondary electronic trading platform (EUR/SEK, USD/RUB and USD/TRY). Our results, indicating that EUR/USD and USD/JPY are highly sensitive to information-rich orders, suggests that spoofing tactics might be more dependent on the chosen electronic trading venue, rather than the overall market liquidity of the currency pairs. Furthermore, we find widespread adoption of pinging tactics in the EUR/SEK and USD/RUB markets.

Modelling, Simulation and Inference for Multivariate Time Series of Counts Using Trawl Processes

This article presents a new continuous-time modelling framework for multivariate time series of counts which have an infinitely divisible marginal distribution. The model is based on a mixed moving average process driven by Levy noise - called a trawl process - where the serial correlation and the cross-sectional dependence are modelled independently of each other. Such processes can exhibit short or long memory. We derive a stochastic simulation algorithm and a statistical inference method for such processes. The new methodology is then applied to high frequency financial data, where we investigate the relationship between the number of limit order submissions and deletions in a limit order book.

Order Flows and Limit Order Book Resiliency on the Meso-Scale

We investigate the behavior of limit order books (LOBs) on the meso-scale motivated by order execution scheduling algorithms. To do so, we carry out empirical analysis of the order flows from market and limit order submissions, aggregated from tick-by-tick data via volume-based bucketing, as well as various LOB depth and shape metrics. We document a nonlinear relationship between trade imbalance and price change, which however can be converted into a linear link by considering a weighted average of market and limit order flows. We also document a hockey-stick dependence between trade imbalance and one-sided limit order flows, highlighting numerous asymmetric effects between the active and passive sides of the LOB. To address the phenomenological features of price formation, we construct regression models to identify the most significant predictors, confirming the predictive power of limit order flows. Another finding is that the deeper LOB shape, rather than just the book imbalance, is more relevant on this timescale. The empirical results are based on analysis of six large-tick assets from Nasdaq.

Do Superstitious Traders Lose Money?

Do superstitious traders lose money? We answer this question in the context of trading in the Taiwan Futures Exchange, where we exploit the Chinese superstition that the number 8 is lucky and the number 4 is unlucky. We find that individual investors, but not institutional investors, submit disproportionately more limit orders at 8 than at 4. This imbalance, defined as the “superstition index” for each investor, is positively correlated with trading losses. Superstitious investors lose money mainly because of their bad market timing and stale orders. Nevertheless, the reliance on number superstition for limit order submissions does decrease with trading experience.The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2701 .This paper was accepted by Amit Seru, finance.

Do Superstitious Traders Lose Money?

Do superstitious traders lose money? We answer this question in the context of trading in the Taiwan Futures Exchange, where we exploit the Chinese superstition that the number “8” is lucky and the number “4” is unlucky. We find that individual investors, but not institutional investors, submit disproportionately more limit orders at “8” than at “4.” This imbalance, defined as “superstition index” for each investor, is positively correlated with trading losses. Superstitious investors lose money mainly because of their bad market timing and stale orders. Nevertheless, the reliance on number superstition for limit order submissions does decrease with trading experience.

Decimalization, IPO aftermath, and liquidity

We investigate the effect of decimalization on the aftermarket trading of NYSE-listed IPOs. We find that the relation between bid–ask spread and underpricing becomes negative post-decimalization, suggesting that benefits from the increased price competition accrue more to hot IPOs. The quoted depth is generally smaller post-decimalization due to a higher probability of front running, which aggravates the cost of adverse selection and limit order submission. We show that underwriters continue to provide price support but are only willing to cover the initial short position, if profitable to do so. Decimal pricing does not affect the flipping strategy of institutions for cold IPOs as they are likely bound by the underwriter’s price support and their share allocation. Institutions, however, tend to flip more hot IPOs during the post- than in the pre-decimalization period, suggesting that the cost of flipping is lower for shares with a substantial price run-up during aftermarket trading.

Mathematical Aspects of Delayed Market Clearing in Order Driven Markets and its Applications to Non-Markovian Price Impact and Optimal Execution

The functioning of limit order books (LOBs) creates strong incentives for market participants to conceal their trading intentions. The massive submission of limit orders is inhibited, available liquidity is low even in "liquid" markets, and high-volume traders need to split orders into a long sequence of small trades. Therefore, limit order driven markets never completely clear despite a well-defined mid-price in the LOB. This paper develops a macroscopic market clearing model for the trading intentions which has the following properties: Latent orders are submitted gradually with a flow proportional to the amount of outstanding latent liquidity, the price impact of the aggregate market order flow is linear, and high-frequency fluctuations of the LOB are completely neglected. We study the mathematical properties of the resulting price impact equations and introduce a non-Markovian optimal execution problem.

Modeling uncertainty in limit order execution

A model for limit order execution is developed where several sources of uncertainty are taken into account. We focus on the optimal trading strategy of an investor who has to buy a block of shares throughout the submission of limit orders. This trading problem is explicitly solved and we analyze how the state of the limit order book and the investor's subjective beliefs affect the optimal strategy.

Cognitive Limitation and Investment Performance: Evidence from Limit Order Clustering

We hypothesize that cognitive limitation may be manifested in a disproportionately large volume of limit orders submitted at round-number prices if investors use these numbers as cognitive shortcuts. Using detailed limit order data in the Taiwan Futures Exchange, we find that investors with lower cognitive abilities, defined as higher limit order submission ratios at round numbers, suffer greater losses in their round-numbered and non-round-numbered limit orders, market orders, and round-trip trades. The positive correlation between cognitive ability and investment performance is monotonic and robust across futures and options markets. In addition, past trading experience helps mitigate cognitive limitation.