Life-cycle Earnings Research Articles

Human capital depreciation and education level

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to investigate the link between human capital depreciation and education level, with an emphasis on potential differences between general and specific education.Design/methodology/approach– A nonlinear wage equation, based on Arrazola and de Hevia's (2004) model, is estimated using data from the Swiss Labor Force Survey (SLFS) over the period 1998-2008, in order to estimate a human capital depreciation rate for several education groups.Findings– Human capital depreciation is significantly related to education type. Academic (“concept-based”) education protects workers more effectively against depreciation than vocational (“skill-specific”) education.Research limitations/implications– The SLFS survey is a rotating panel of five years and no retrospective data on earnings and employment are provided. A study of lifecycle earnings like the one proposed here would clearly benefit from a longer individual observation period.Practical implications– In all educational tracks, even vocational ones, a substantial time share should be devoted to the acquisition of general skills. Moreover, it is necessary to manage lifelong learning carefully in order not to waste initial investments in education.Originality/value– Instead of using a purely quantitative approach to separate workers by years of education, qualitative aspects of educational system are taken into account. Taking advantage of the Swiss educational system characteristics, workers are separated on the basis of their education type. Workers with vocational education (apprenticeships, professional and technical schools and universities of applied sciences) are assumed to possess a relatively specific human capital, compared to those with academic education (high schools and universities).

Future public pensions and changing employment patterns across birth cohorts

AbstractWe analyse the impacts of changing employment patterns and pension reforms on the future level of public pensions across birth cohorts in Germany. The analysis is based on a microsimulation model and a rich data set that combines household survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) and process-produced microdata from the German pension insurance. We account for cohort effects in individual employment and unemployment affecting earnings over the life cycle as well as the differential impact of recent pension reforms. For individuals born between 1937 and 1971, cohort effects vary greatly by region, gender and education, and strongly affect life cycle earnings profiles. The largest effects can be observed for younger cohorts in East Germany and for the low educated. Using simulated life cycle employment and income profiles, we project gross future pensions across cohorts taking into account changing demographics and recent pension reforms. Simulations show that pension levels for East German men and women will fall dramatically among younger birth cohorts, not only because of policy reforms but also due to higher cumulated unemployment. For West German men, the small reduction of average pension levels among younger birth cohorts is mainly driven by the impact of pension reforms, while future pension levels of West German women are increasing or stable due to rising labour market participation of younger birth cohorts.

The contributions of search and human capital to earnings growth over the life cycle

This paper presents and estimates a unified model where both human capital investment and job search are endogenized. This unification enables us to quantify the relative contributions of each mechanism to life cycle earnings growth, while investigating potential interactions between human capital investment and job search. Within the unified framework, the expectation of rising rental rates of human capital through job search gives workers more incentive to invest in human capital. In addition, unemployed workers reduce their reservation rental rates and increase their search effort to leave unemployment quickly to take advantage of human capital accumulation on the job. The results show both forces are important for earnings growth and the interactions are substantial: human capital accumulation accounts for 50% of total earnings growth, job search accounts for 20%, and the remaining 30% is due to the interactions of the two.

The demand for higher education: A static structural approach accounting for individual heterogeneity and nesting patterns

In this paper we estimate a structural model of higher education participation and labour choices in a static setting that accounts for individual heterogeneity and possible nesting structures in the decision process. We assume that young people that complete upper secondary education are faced with three choices, go to higher education, not go to higher education or go to higher education and work part time. We model this choice using Irish data incorporating variation in costs (direct and indirect), the estimated lifecycle returns and household credit constraints. Using a mixed nested logit choice model we find that simulated lifecycle earnings and a choice-specific household income variable impact the educational/labour choices of young people. We also find evidence that preference for choices with higher simulated lifecycle earnings and household income vary significantly across individuals. Policy simulations undertaken find that varying student financial aid can lead to increases in higher education participation.

Providing Efficient Incentives to Work: Retirement Ages and the Pension System

This paper provides a theoretical and quantitative analysis of the efficient pension system as an integral part of the overall income tax code. We study lifecycle environments with active intensive and extensive labor margins. First, we analytically characterize Pareto efficient policies when the main tension is between redistribution and provision of incentives: while it may be more efficient to have highly productive individuals work more and retire older, earlier retirement may be needed to give them incentives to fully realize their productivity while they work. We show that, under plausible conditions, efficient retirement ages must increase in productivity. We also show that this pattern is implemented by pension benefits that not only depend on the age of retirement, but are designed to be actuarially unfair. Second, in a version of environment calibrated to U.S. individual lifecycle earnings, retirement ages, and intensive and extensive labor elasticities, we find that it is efficient for individuals with higher lifetime earning to retire (i) older than they do in the data (at 69.5 vs. at 62.8 in the data, for the most productive workers) and (ii) older than their less productive peers (at 69.5 for the most productive workers vs. at 62.2 for the least productive ones), in contrast to the pattern observed in the data. Finally, we compute welfare gains of between 1 and 5 percent and total output gains of up to 1 percent from implementing efficient work and retirement age patterns. We conclude that distorting the retirement age decision offers a powerful policy instrument, capable of overcompensating output losses from standard distortionary redistributive policies.

The Prospects of the Baby Boomers: Methodological Challenges in Projecting the Lives of an Aging Cohort

In most industrialized countries, the work and family patterns of the baby boomers characterized by more heterogeneous working careers and less stable family lives set them apart from preceding cohorts. Thus, it is of crucial importance to understand how these different work and family lives are linked to the boomers' prospective material well-being as they retire. This paper presents a new and unique matching-based approach for the projection of the life courses of German baby boomers, called the LAW-Life Projection Model. Basis for the projection are data from 27 waves of the German Socio-Economic Panel linked with administrative pension records from the German Statutory Pension In-surance that cover lifecycle pension-relevant earnings. Unlike model-based micro simula-tions that age the data year by year our matching-based projection uses sequences from older birth cohorts to complete the life-courses of statistically similar baby boomers through to retirement. An advantage of this approach is to coherently project the work-life and family trajectories as well as lifecycle earnings. The authors present a benchmark anal-ysis to assess the validity and accuracy of the projection. For this purpose, they cut a signif-icant portion of already lived lives and test different combinations of matching algorithms and donor pool specifications to identify the combination that produces the best fit be-tween previously cut but observed and projected life-course information. Exploiting the advantages of the projected data, the authors compare the returns to education - measured in terms of pension entitlements - across cohorts. The results indicate that within cohorts, differences between individuals with low and high educational attainment increase over time for men and women in East and West Germany. East German boomer women with low educational attainment face the most substantial losses in pension entitlements that put them at a high risk of being poor as they retire.

Alike in Many Ways: Intergenerational and Sibling Correlations of Brothers' Earnings

We model the correlations of brothers’ life-cycle earnings separating for the first time the effect of paternal earnings from additional residual sibling effects. We identify the two effects by analysing sibling correlations and intergenerational correlations jointly within a unified framework. Our multi-person model of earnings dynamics distinguishes permanent earnings from transitory –serially correlated—shocks, allows for life-cycle effects and nests the models of previous research that have focussed either on intergenerational or sibling correlations. Using data on the Danish population of father/first-son/second-son triplets we find that sibling effects explain between one fourth and one half of inequality in life-cycle earnings, and largely account for individual differences in earnings growth. Intergenerational associations account for a considerable share of overall sibling correlations, between 30 and 60 per cent from youth to maturity. We also find that transitory shocks are correlated across family members, in particular between brothers. Extensions of the model show a distinctive effect of mothers’ human capital on top of fathers’ earnings and no evidence of differential intergenerational transmission between brothers.

Are Household Surveys Like Tax Forms: Evidence from Income Underreporting of the Self-Employed

There is a large literature showing that the self-employed underreport their income to tax authorities. In this paper, we quantify the extent to which the self-employed also systematically underreport their income in U.S. household surveys. To do so, we use the Engel curve describing the relationship between income and expenditures of wage and salary workers to infer the actual income, and thus the reporting gap, of the self-employed based on their reported expenditures. We find that the self-employed underreport their income by about 30 percent. This result is remarkably robust across data sources and alternative model specifications. Failing to account for such income underreporting leads to biased conclusions. We document this bias in existing measures of earnings differentials, wealth differentials, precautionary savings, lifecycle earnings profiles, and earnings variation across MSAs. Our results show that it is naive for researchers to take it for granted that individuals will provide unbiased information to household surveys given their demonstrated tendency of providing distorted reports of the same information to other administrative sources.

Earnings Dynamics and Inequality in EU, 1994-2001

This paper uses ECHP for 14 EU countries to explore the dynamic structure of individual earnings and the extent to which changes in cross-sectional earnings inequality reflect transitory or permanent components of individual lifecycle earnings variation. Increases in inequality reflect increases in permanent differentials in four countries and increases in both components in two. Decreases in inequality reflect decreases in transitory differentials in four countries, in permanent differentials in two and in both components in rest. In general, increases in inequality are accompanied by decreases in mobility, whereas only in three countries the increase in mobility is determined by the decrease in inequality.

Optimal consumption and asset allocation with unknown income growth

Recent empirical evidence supports the view that the income process has an individual-specific growth rate component [Baker, M., 1997. Growth-rate heterogeneity and the covariance structure of life-cycle earnings. Journal of Labor Economics 15, 338–375; Guvenen, F., 2007b. Learning your earning: Are labor income shocks really very persistent? American Economic Review 97, 687–712; Huggett, M., Ventura, G., Yaron, A., 2007. Sources of life-cycle inequality. Working paper, University of Pennsylvania]. Moreover, the individual-specific growth component may be stochastic. Motivated by these empirical observations, I study an individual's optimal consumption–saving and portfolio choice problem when he does not observe his income growth. As in standard income fluctuation problems, the individual cannot fully insure himself against income shocks. In addition to the standard income-risk-induced precautionary saving demand, the individual also has learning-induced precautionary saving demand, which is greater when belief is more uncertain. With constant unobserved income growth, changes in belief are not predictable. However, with stationary stochastic income growth, belief is no longer a martingale. Mean reversion of belief reduces hedging demand on average and in turn mitigates the impact of estimation risk on consumption–saving and portfolio decisions.

Participation in Higher Education: A Random Parameter Logit Approach with Policy Simulations

In this paper we present a theoretical model of higher education participation. We assume that young people that complete upper secondary education are faced with three choices, go to higher education, not go to higher education or go to higher education and work part time. Utilizing the Living in Ireland survey data 1994-2001 we model this choice in an Irish context by variation in costs (direct and indirect), the estimated lifecycle returns and household credit constraints. Using a random parameters logit choice model we find that simulated lifecycle earnings positively impact the educational/labour choices of young individuals in Ireland. This positive relationship is also found to be true for a choice-specific household income variable constructed in the paper. From the random parameters logit estimations we also find that preferences for choices with higher simulated lifecycle earnings and household income vary across individuals. We conduct policy simulations from our estimations and found that increasing student financial aid levels by 10% combined with a slight widening of the income limits for these aids can lead to significant movement away from the decision to not enter higher education.

Macroeconomic Implications of Demography for the Environment: A Life-Cycle Perspective

This article studies how demography affects the outcome of the environmental policy in a macro-economic perspective, incorporating age-earning profiles in an OLG model a la Blanchard (1985) to capture the age structure effect of the demographic shocks. It first demonstrates, conversely to previous works of the related literature that a decrease in the birth rate may lower the steady-state per capita stock of physical capital even if the aggregate labor supply is exogenous. It also demonstrates that the ageing of population influences the macro-economic impact of the environmental policy according to the cause of the ageing and the life-cycle earnings assumption. Thus, with decreasing age-earning profiles, a lower birth rate reduces the detrimental impact of the environmental policy on the steady-state per capita stock of physical capital for low values of this birth rate, while a reduction of the mortality rate reinforces the negative outcome of the environmental policy. When earnings profiles are independent of age, ageing always strengthens the negative impact of the environmental policy.

The Federal Student Loan Program: Quantitative implications for college enrollment and default rates

I quantify the effects of alternative student loan policies on college enrollment, borrowing behavior, and default rates in a heterogeneous model of life-cycle earnings and human capital accumulation. I find that the combination of learning ability and initial stock of human capital drives the decision to enroll in college, while parental wealth has minimal effects on enrollment. Repayment flexibility increases enrollment significantly, whereas relaxation of eligibility requirements has little effect on enrollment or default rates. The former policy benefits low-income households, while the latter has negligible effects on these households.

Estimates of Intergenerational Elasticities Based on Lifetime Earnings

Using Norwegian intergenerational data with a substantial part of the life-cycle earnings of children and almost the entire life-cycle earnings for their fathers, we present new estimates of intergenerational mobility. Extending the length of the fathers' earnings windows from 5 to 30 years increases the estimated elasticities. Increasing the age of father at observation has the opposite effect. Our findings indicate that intergenerational earnings mobility may have been strongly overstated in many earlier studies with shorter earnings histories. Biases in the estimated elasticities appear to be related to age and/or life-cycle measurement errors more than persistency in the transitory innovations.

Federal Student Loan Program: Quantitative Implications for College Enrollment and Default Rates

I quantify the effects of alternative student loan policies on college enrollment, borrowing behavior, and default rates in a heterogeneous model of life-cycle earnings and human capital accumulation. I find that the combination of learning ability and initial human capital stock drives the decision to enroll in college while parental wealth has minimal effects on enrollment. Repayment flexibility increases enrollment significantly, whereas relaxation of eligibility requirements has little effect on enrollment or default rates. The former policy induces substantial welfare gains for bottom income quantiles, while the latter implies minimal welfare gains for bottom income quantiles.

Asset Pricing with Limited Risk Sharing and Heterogeneous Agents

We develop a model with incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents that generates a large equity premium, while simultaneously matching stock market participation and individual asset holdings. The high risk-premium is driven by incomplete risk sharing among stockholders, which results from the combination of aggregate uncertainty, borrowing constraints, and a (realistically) calibrated life-cycle earnings profile subject to idiosyncratic shocks. We show that it is challenging to simultaneously match asset pricing moments and individual portfolio decisions, while limited participation has a negligible impact on the risk-premium, contrary to the results of models where it is imposed exogenously.

The Experience-Earnings Profile: Productivity-Augmenting or Purely Contractual? Evidence from the UK

We test the human capital interpretation of the experience-earnings profile. Does the upward sloping portion of the experience-earnings profile reflect on-the-job training which in turn causes the experience-productivity profile to slope upwards, or do purely contractual factors determine the nature of life-cycle earnings. Herein, we provide additional evidence on the relationship between productivity and earnings by examining earnings differentials in the UK academic labor market for economists. Using a test first suggested by Mincer, we find that the empirical results are consistent with human capital theory. We find that, although the positive relationship between earnings and experience persists when individual productivity measures are included in the salary equations for lecturers and senior lecturers, the positive relationship becomes statistically insignificant when the same productivity measures are included in the salary equations for professors. For lecturers and senior lecturers, the experience-salary profile properly reflects the structure of the national pay scale rather than variations in individual research productivity. At the professor level, where individual salaries are not determined by a pay scale, the data support the human capital explanation of the positive experience-earnings profile.

Identifying and Estimating the Distributions of Ex Post and Ex Ante Returns to Schooling

This paper surveys a recent body of research by Carneiro, Hansen, and Heckman [Carneiro, P., K. Hansen, and J.J. Heckman, 2001, Fall. Removing the veil of ignorance in assessing the distributional impacts of social policies. Swedish Economic Policy Review 8 (2), 273–301., Carneiro, P., K. Hansen, and J.J. Heckman, 2003, May. Estimating distributions of treatment effects with an application to the returns to schooling and measurement of the effects of uncertainty on college choice. International Economic Review 44 (2), 361–422. 2001 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture], Cunha and Heckman [Cunha, F. and J.J. Heckman, 2006. The evolution of earnings risk in the US economy. Presented at the 9th World Congress of the Econometric Society, London], Cunha, Heckman, and Navarro [Cunha, F., J.J. Heckman, and S. Navarro, 2004, March. Separating heterogeneity from uncertainty in an aiyagari–laitner economy. Presented at the Goldwater Conference on Labor Markets, Arizona., Cunha, F., J.J. Heckman, and S. Navarro, 2005, April. Separating uncertainty from heterogeneity in life cycle earnings, The 2004 Hicks Lecture. Oxford Economic Papers 57 (2), 191–261., Cunha, F., J.J. Heckman, and S. Navarro, 2006. Counterfactual analysis of inequality and social mobility. In S.L. Morgan, D.B. Grusky, and G.S. Fields (Eds.), Mobility and Inequality: Frontiers of Research in Sociology and Economics, Chapter 4, pp. 290–348. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press], Heckman and Navarro [Heckman, J.J. and S. Navarro, 2007, February. Dynamic discrete choice and dynamic treatment effects. Journal of Econometrics 136 (2), 341–396] and Navarro [Navarro, S., 2005. Understanding Schooling: Using Observed Choices to Infer Agent's Information in a Dynamic Model of Schooling Choice When Consumption Allocation is Subject to Borrowing Constraints. Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL] that identifies and estimates the ex post distribution of returns to schooling and determines ex ante distributions of returns on which agents base their schooling choices. We discuss methods and evidence, and state a fundamental identification problem concerning the separation of preferences, market structures and agent information sets. For a variety of market structures and preference specifications, we estimate that over 50% of the ex post variance in returns to college are forecastable at the time agents make their schooling choices.

Human Capital, Sports Performance and Salary Determination of Professional Athletes

Thanks to the high availability of data, professional sport represents a unique laboratory in order to test labour market theories and predictions. In particular, one of the most important propositions concerns the role that human capital plays in shaping the life-cycle earnings patterns of workers. To the extent that sport can be considered as a type of human capital investment, human capital theory can help to understand, and empirically assess, how the professional sports labour market rewards performance attributes of players. On this purpose, this piece of work reviews the most important economic contributions focused on the wage determination of professional athletes with the aim of outlining both the emerging common features and the main issues. In so doing, a distinction between professional team-sports and professional single-player sports is done, where the former is represented by the most popular sports in North America and Europe, such as baseball, basketball, hockey and soccer, whereas the latter is primarily represented by professional golf in the US.

Asset Pricing with Limited Risk Sharing and Heterogeneous Agents

We develop a model with incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents that generates a large equity premium, while simultaneously matching stock market participation and individual asset holdings. The high risk-premium is driven by incomplete risk sharing among stockholders, which results from the combination of aggregate uncertainty, borrowing constraints, and a (realistically) calibrated life-cycle earnings profile subject to idiosyncratic shocks. We show that it is challenging to simultaneously match asset pricing moments and individual portfolio decisions, while limited participation has a negligible impact on the risk-premium, contrary to the results of models where it is imposed exogenously.