Length Of Growing Season Research Articles

Exploring Climate Change Impacts on Temperature Extremes in the South Saskatchewan River Watershed, Alberta, Canada

In recent years, the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events have escalated, posing unprecedented challenges to ecosystems, economies, and human health. As global temperatures rise, these events are emerging as critical threats; therefore, understanding their changes is essential for developing strategies to mitigate their growing risks under global warming. In this study, we used ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring, and Indices) temperature indices to analyze future changes in extreme temperature events in the South Saskatchewan River Watershed (SSRW) in Southern Alberta, Canada, a critical area for irrigation, agriculture, and food production. This analysis is based on an ensemble of 26 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and three Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, in three periods (2015–2030, 2041–2060, 2071–2100), compared against the base period of 1951–1990. The results suggest substantial changes in most of the studied indices towards higher temperatures, with a significant rise in both the numbers of days with extreme temperatures and the magnitude of the temperature itself, as well as a notable drop in the number of cold days. As a result of warming, the growing season length is 16 days longer in 2015–2030 compared to the base period and is projected to increase substantially by the end of the century. A longer growing season might seem favourable for agriculture, but it can disrupt water availability and cause unpleasant environmental consequences. Overall, the scenarios considered in this research suggest that the SSRW could experience warming at a significant rate. This finding underscores the urgent need for adaptation and mitigation actions to enhance resilience and sustainability.

Evaluation of the spatial responses in vegetation phenology to drought and the analysis of their driving factors in China

The warming and drying trend accompanying climate change challenges global ecosystem stability. Vegetation phenology, which can serve as a sensitive indicator of climate change, is crucial in understanding ecosystem carbon cycling and climate-carbon cycle feedback. Therefore, assessing the phenological responses to drought is essential for addressing climate change. In this study, vegetation phenology data [including the start and end of season (SOS, EOS) and length of growing season (LOS)] and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) were employed to analyze the impacts of drought on plant phenology in China by maximum Pearson correlation coefficients and partial least squares regression. The findings showed that drought significantly affected the timing of phenology, delaying senescence in approximately 62% of China and extending the growing season in about 53% of the country, indicating the critical role of water availability in vegetation biomass. Preseason nocturnal warming was found to advance SOS, delay EOS, and extend LOS across China, with significant effects observed in approximately 60% of the country. Meanwhile, daytime warming delayed SOS, delayed EOS and extended LOS in 50∼60% of the regions. Moreover, preseason precipitation is conducive to advanced SOS, delayed EOS and extended LOS in northern China and areas susceptible to drought. It is suggested that vegetation management should be strengthened to mitigate the impact of climate change in temperate and drought-prone regions in China since climate warming will lead to frequent droughts.

The Dynamics of Vegetation Evapotranspiration and Its Response to Surface Meteorological Factors in the Altay Mountains, Northwest China

The Altay Mountains’ forests are vital to Xinjiang’s terrestrial ecosystem, especially water regulation and conservation. This study evaluates vegetation evapotranspiration (ET) from 2000 to 2017 using temperature, precipitation, and ET data from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service. The dataset underwent quality control and was interpolated using the inverse distance weighted (IDW) method. Correlation analysis and climate trend methodologies were applied to assess the impacts of temperature, precipitation, drought, and extreme weather events on ET. The results indicate that air temperature had a minimal effect on ET, with 68.34% of the region showing weak correlations (coefficients between −0.2 and 0.2). Conversely, precipitation exhibited a strong positive correlation with ET across 98.91% of the area. Drought analysis, using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI), showed that ET was significantly correlated with the SPEI in 96.47% of the region, while the TVDI displayed both positive and negative correlations. Extreme weather events also significantly influenced ET, with reductions in the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), heavy precipitation days (R95p, R10), and increases in indicators like growing season length (GSL) and warm spell duration index (WSDI) leading to variations in ET. Based on the correlation coefficients and their significance, it was confirmed that the SII (precipitation intensity) and R95p (heavy precipitation) are the main factors causing vegetation ET increases. These findings offer crucial insights into the interactions between meteorological variables and ET, essential information for sustainable forest management, by highlighting the importance of optimizing water regulation strategies, such as adjusting species composition and forest density to enhance resilience against drought and extreme weather, thereby ensuring long-term forest health and productivity in response to climate change.

Paleobotanical Evidence for Mediterranean Climates in the Western Canadian Paleoarctic During the Late Middle Eocene

AbstractPaleogene age deposits east of the Fifteenmile River, northwest of Dawson City, Yukon, Canada preserve a diverse high‐latitude fossil flora. Here, we provide new data on the age of the fossil site based on laser ablation–inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry (LA‐ICP‐MS) U‐Pb dating of tephra zircons, paleobotanical paleoclimate reconstructions, and growing season length estimates based on photoperiod. These new data indicate an age of the Fifteenmile River fossil locality as late middle Eocene and likely within the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum episode. The paleoflora‐based paleoclimate reconstruction indicates the region was relatively wet and warm with non‐freezing winters, but also experienced seasonal dryness, with an approximate 7 months long growing season as suggested by photoperiod. We interpret this paleoclimate as summer dry and winter wet—a climate analogous to modern day warm Mediterranean climates in the Köppen‐Geiger climate classification system. These findings provide a new perspective on the past climate and environment of high‐latitude ecosystems during warm greenhouse intervals and contribute to our understanding of the Earth's climate history and its potential future changes.

Seasonal, Decadal, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation-Related Trends and Anomalies in Rainfall and Dry Spells during the Agricultural Season in Central Malawi

As governments continue to address climate change when formulating policy, there remains a need to determine if such a change exists in the historical record to inform clear indices for monitoring the present climate for site-specific interventions. This study characterised trends and anomalies in rainfall and dry spells, providing local information often projected from satellites or regional data in data-scarce regions. From 1961 to 2007, daily rainfall records in Central Malawi were used to calculate indices for low-(Balaka), medium-(Bunda, Chitedze, KIA), and high-altitude (Dedza) sites, which were then subjected to Mann–Kendall’s, Cramer’s, and Spearman-Rho’s trend tests. Significant decreasing trends in terms of wet days and growing season length were evident across locations. Seasonal and extreme rainfall, dry spells, and inter-seasonal and near-decadal anomalies were not consistently or inevitably significant. Unexpectedly, rainfall anomalies were largest in Bunda and KIA, which have mild climatic regimes, while the lowest were in Balaka, a rainfall-averse zone. The relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and extreme rainfall and dry spell events did not reach statistical significance. In conclusion, extreme precipitation and dry spell events show varied intensities and proportions rather than increased frequency. The disparate results largely justify the need for in-depth local-scale assessments for agroclimatic applications.

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Vegetation Phenology and Its Response to Land Surface Temperature in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

In the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, which is the region with the highest urbanization intensity in China, the development of cities leads to changes in land surface temperature (LST), while vegetation phenology varies with LST. To investigate the spatial and temporal changes in vegetation phenology and its response to LST in the study area, this study reconstructed the time series of the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) based on the MODIS EVI product and extracted the vegetation phenology indicators in the study area from 2002 to 2020, including the start of the growing season (SOS), the end of the growing season (EOS), and the growing season length (GSL), and analyzed the temporal–spatial patterns of vegetation phenology and LST in the study area, as well as the correlation between them. The results show that (1) SOS was advanced, EOS was postponed, and GSL was extended in the study area from 2002 to 2020, and there were obvious differences in the vegetation phenology indicators under different land covers and cities; (2) LST was higher in the southeast than in the northwest of the study area from 2002 to 2020, with an increasing trend; and (3) there are differences in the response of vegetation phenology to LST across land covers and cities, and SOS responds differently to LST at different times of the year. EOS shows a significant postponement trend with the annual mean LST increase. Overall, we found differences in vegetation phenology and its response to LST under different land covers and cities, which is important for scholars to understand the response of vegetation phenology to urbanization.

Mycorrhizal status regulates plant phenological mismatch caused by warming

Mycorrhiza is an important functional feature of plants, which plays a vital role in regulating plant phenology in response to environmental changes. However, the effect of mycorrhiza on plant phenological asymmetry in response to climate changes is still rarely reported. Based on a global database of mycorrhizal statuses (obligately mycorrhizal, OM and facultatively mycorrhizal, FM) and phenology, we demonstrated that mycorrhizas reduce the phenological mismatches between above- and below-ground plant responses to climate warming under OM status. The mismatch of above- and below-ground growing season length of FM plants to warming was as high as 10.65 days, 9.1925 days and 12.36 days in total, herbaceous and woody plants, respectively. The mismatch of growing season length of OM plants was only 2.12 days, −0.61 days and 7.64 days among plant groups, which was much lower than that of FM plants. Correlation analysis indicated that OM plants stabilized plant phenology by regulating the relationship between the start of the growing season and the length of the growing season. Path analysis found that herbaceous plants and woody plants reduced phenological mismatches by stabilizing below-ground and above-ground phenology, respectively. In exploring the effects of mycorrhizal status on early- or late-season phenophases, we found that different mycorrhizal statuses affected the response of early- or late-season phenophase to warming. OM promoted the advance of early-season phenophase, and FM promoted the delay of late-season phenophase among different plant groups. In different regions, OM and FM promoted the advance of early-season phenophase in temperate and boreal regions, respectively. Our results indicate that mycorrhizal status mediates plant phenological response to warming, so the potential effects of mycorrhizal status should be considered when studying plant phenology changes.

Ecosystem CO2 flux responses to extreme droughts depend on interaction of seasonal timing and plant community composition

Abstract Droughts can affect ecosystem CO2 fluxes directly or indirectly by changing plant community composition. However, it is unknown whether shifts in plant community composition buffer or amplify the response of ecosystem CO2 fluxes to droughts with different seasonal timing, as plant phenology and physiology of the different plant functional types respond differently to droughts. To identify the interaction of drought timing and plant community composition in regulating ecosystem CO2 fluxes, we conducted a three‐year manipulative experiment in which extreme droughts occurring in the early, mid and late growing seasons were separately imposed on experimental plot communities comprising graminoids, shrubs and their combination in a semi‐arid grassland of Inner Mongolia, China. Overall, mid‐season drought caused the largest negative effects regardless of plant community composition. In addition to decreasing aboveground biomass, mid‐season drought suppressed fluxes by reducing leaf photosynthetic rate, while early‐season and late‐season drought reduced fluxes mainly by shortening growing season length. All three community compositions had consistent responses to early‐season and mid‐season droughts. However, ecosystem CO2 fluxes in the combination community were less negatively affected by late‐season drought than in either shrub or graminoid communities because the growing season length was shortened less. Synthesis. Our results highlight that it is important to account for interactions of seasonal timing and plant community composition when predicting magnitude and pathways of drought effects on ecosystem carbon cycling.

A Study on the Differences in Vegetation Phenological Characteristics and Their Effects on Water–Carbon Coupling in the Huang-Huai-Hai and Yangtze River Basins, China

Vegetation phenology is a biological factor that directly or indirectly affects the dynamic equilibrium between water and carbon fluxes in ecosystems. Quantitative evaluations of the regulatory mechanisms of vegetation phenology on water–carbon coupling are of great significance for carbon neutrality and sustainable development. In this study, the interannual variation and partial correlation between vegetation phenology (the start of growing season (SOS), the end of growing season (EOS), and the length of growing season (LOS)) and ET (evapotranspiration), GPP (gross primary productivity), WUE (water use efficiency; water–carbon coupling index) in the Huang-Huai-Hai and Yangtze River Basins in China from 2001 to 2019 were systematically quantified. The response patterns of spring (autumn) and growing season WUE to SOS, EOS, and LOS, as well as the interpretation rate of interannual changes, were evaluated. Further analysis was conducted on the differences in vegetation phenology in response to WUE across different river basins. The results showed that during the vegetation growth season, ET and GPP were greatly influenced by phenology. Due to the different increases in ET and GPP caused by extending LOS, WUE showed differences in different basins. For example, an extended LOS in the Huang-Huai-Hai basins reduced WUE, while in the Yangtze River Basin, it increased WUE. After extending the growing season for 1 day, ET and GPP increased by 3.01–4.79 mm and 4.22–6.07 gC/m2, respectively, while WUE decreased by 0.002–0.008 gC/kgH2O. Further analysis of WUE response patterns indicates that compared to ET, early SOS (longer LOS) in the Yellow River and Hai River basins led to a greater increase in vegetation GPP, therefore weakening WUE. This suggests that phenological changes may increase ineffective water use in arid, semi-arid, and semi-humid areas and may further exacerbate drought. For the humid areas dominated by the Yangtze River Basin, changes in phenology improved local water use efficiency.

Influence of Slope Aspect and Position on Xylem Formation Dynamics in Subtropical Chinese Fir Plantations

Recent studies on the intra-annual dynamics of trees were mainly focused on mature trees in natural forests; however, less is known about how topography (e.g., slope’s position and aspect) shape the intra-annual xylem formation dynamics of young trees in plantation forests. We monitored intra-annual xylem formation dynamics of 6-year-old Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.)) trees across two different aspects (northeast and southwest) and three different positions (upper, middle, and lower) of the slope in a planted forest in subtropical China. We found that the intra-annual xylem formation of trees on the northeast slope aspect (176.98 ± 34.52 cells) was significantly higher than that on the southwest slope aspect (140.19 ± 36.07 cells) due to the higher growth rate (0.67 ± 0.11 cells/day vs. 0.53 ± 0.10 cells/day). In the middle slope position, xylem formation (187.89 ± 19.81 cells) was also significantly higher than that of the upper (147.35 ± 29.08 cells) and lower slope positions (140.51 ± 48.36 cells), resulting from higher growth rate rather than longer growing season length. Our study demonstrated that intra-annual xylem formation dynamics of Chinese fir were altered by different topographic features and therefore encourage the implementation of management strategies that consider different slope aspects and positions to maximize forest productivity.

Climate change impact on Mediterranean viticultural regions and site-specific climate risk-reduction strategies

The global increase in extreme weather and climate events may dramatically impact agriculture, food safety, and socioeconomic dynamics. The Mediterranean basin is already exposed to extreme climatic events, severely challenging viticulture, a pivotal Mediterranean agro–industry. This study aims to understand better how climate is expected to evolve in six viticulturally important Mediterranean regions in Portugal, Italy, Turkey and Morocco, using a 4–member ensemble of climatic model projections under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for 2041–2070, and using the 1981–2010 period as a baseline. By comparing the main specific challenges these locations will face, we comparatively define the best strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change at the national and regional levels. Projections show increases in overall temperatures, up to + 3.6°C than the historical baseline, whilst precipitation projections indicate decreases that could reach 36% of the overall annual precipitation. Biological effective degree days, consecutive dry days, growing season length, tropical nights, or very heavy precipitation days, also show challenging prospects for viticulture in these countries. A screening of the adaptative strategies already undertaken in the studied countries suggests that growers are taking reactive rather than preventive strategies. Moreover, the discussion of the most suitable strategies in this study is region–specific, i.e., prioritised by the specific needs of each location. The conclusions drawn herein may support local growers, improving their decision–making based on the most adequate adaptive strategies to their conditions, thus optimising their sustainable production under changing climates.

No slowdown of growing season extension with warming in a permafrost‐affected meadow on the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract The Tibetan Plateau holds the world's largest alpine permafrost and is undergoing an acceleration of warming. Phenological shifts over alpine permafrost in a warmer world have been little studied and are greatly underrepresented in current syntheses. Here, we conducted seasonal and gradient temperature‐controlled experiments in a permafrost‐affected meadow to evaluate how warming drives shifts in spring and autumn phenology, and associated growing‐season length at both community and species levels. We found that there is no sign of slowdown in spring advance with warming under a higher year‐around warming treatment, aligning with a future medium warming scenario. Although spring advance led to an advance in autumn senescence according to spring‐only warming experiments, the advance could not offset the delay due to concurrent warming. As a result, year‐around warming significantly delayed autumn senescence, although there was a deceleration in delay with warming under high temperature treatment than under the low one. This finding can be attributed to the possibility that winter warming is insufficient to reduce chilling accumulation, which would not delay spring phenology and then lead to a non‐slowdown in spring phenological advancement. Taken together, there is no slowdown in an extension of growing season length with warming under a higher year‐around warming treatment, with an increase of length by 9 and 21 days at the end of this century under a CO2 stabilization and medium warming scenarios, respectively. Synthesis. Our results suggest that a continued growing season extension at least under the medium warming scenario would help permafrost‐affected meadow ecosystems to mitigate permafrost carbon release on the Tibetan Plateau.

Growing degree‐days do not explain moth species' distributions at broad scales

AbstractGrowing degree‐days (GDD), an estimate of an organism's growing season length, has been shown to be an important predictor of Lepidopteran species' distributions and could be influencing Lepidopteran range shifts to climate change. Yet, one understudied simplification in this literature is that the same thermal threshold is used in the calculations of GDD for all species instead of a species‐specific threshold. By characterizing the phenological process influenced by climate, a species‐specific estimate of GDD should improve the accuracy of species distribution models (SDMs). To test this hypothesis, we used published, experimentally estimated thermal thresholds and modeled the current geographic distribution of 30 moth species native to North America. We found that the predictive performance of models based on a species‐specific estimate of GDD was indistinguishable from models based on a standard estimate of GDD. This is likely because GDD was not an important predictor of these species' distributions. Our findings suggest that experimentally estimated thermal thresholds may not always scale up to be predictive at broad scales and that more work is needed to leverage the data from lab experiments into SDMs to accurately predict species' range shifts in response to climate change.

Multi-factor Impact Analysis of Grassland Phenology Changes on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau Based on Interpretable Machine Learning

The vegetation phenology of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is changing significantly in the context of climate change. However, there are many hydrothermal factors affecting the phenology, and few studies have focused on the effects of multiple factors on the phenology of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, resulting in a lack of understanding of the mechanisms underlying phenological changes on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. In this study, we used remote sensing data interpretation to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of grassland phenology on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from 2002 to 2021, focusing on precipitation, temperature, altitude, soil, and other aspects to reveal the dominant factors of phenological variability using an interpretable machine learning method (SHAP) and to quantify the interactive effects of multiple factors on phenology. The results showed that:① The growing season start (SOS) of grasslands on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau mostly ranged from 110 to 150 d, with 56.32 % of grasslands showing an early SOS trend; the growing season end (EOS) mostly ranged from 290-320 d, with 67.65 % of grasslands showing a delayed EOS trend; and the growing season length (LOS) mostly ranged from 120 to 210 d, with 65.50 % of the grasslands showing a trend towards longer growing season lengths. ② SOS in grasslands on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau was mainly influenced by moisture conditions, in which soil moisture between 10 and 25 kg·m-2 in the 0-10 cm soil layer in March promoted the advancement of SOS and peaked at approximately 20 kg·m-2. EOS was mainly influenced by temperature, with higher temperatures in September and October having a stronger effect on EOS latency promotion and peaking at over 8 ℃ and -0.5 ℃, respectively. The main influencing factors of LOS were more consistent with SOS, in which soil moisture between 15 and 25 kg·m-2 in the 0-10 cm soil layer in March promoted the prolongation of LOS and peaked at approximately 18 kg·m-2. ③ There was an obvious interactive effect of water and heat and other factors on phenology; after soil moisture reached 20 kg·m-2 in the 0-10 cm soil layer in March, SOS was more advanced in low-precipitation and low-altitude areas. Better moisture conditions were more conducive to EOS delay at temperatures above 0 ℃ in October, and soil moisture in high precipitation areas promoted LOS prolongation more when soil moisture was between 12 and 22 kg·m-2 in 0-10 cm in March. The results also demonstrated that interpretable machine learning methods could provide a new approach to the analysis of the multifactorial effects of phenological change.

Consistent time allocation fraction to vegetation green-up versus senescence across northern ecosystems despite recent climate change

Extended growing season lengths under climatic warming suggest increased time for plant growth. However, research has focused on climatic impacts to the timing or duration of distinct phenological events. Comparatively little is known about impacts to the relative time allocation to distinct phenological events, for example, the proportion of time dedicated to leaf growth versus senescence. We use multiple satellite and ground-based observations to show that, despite recent climate change during 2001 to 2020, the ratio of time allocated to vegetation green-up over senescence has remained stable [1.27 (± 0.92)] across more than 83% of northern ecosystems. This stability is independent of changes in growing season lengths and is caused by widespread positive relationships among vegetation phenological events; longer vegetation green-up results in longer vegetation senescence. These empirical observations were also partly reproduced by 13 dynamic global vegetation models. Our work demonstrates an intrinsic biotic control to vegetation phenology that could explain the timing of vegetation senescence under climate change.

Future projections of temperature-related indices in Prince Edward Island using ensemble average of three CMIP6 models

Prince Edward Island (PEI) is an agricultural province heavily relying on rainfed agriculture. The island has already experienced significant impacts from climate change. Accurate projections of PEI temperature extreme indices are required to mitigate and adapt to the changing climate conditions. This study aims to develop ensemble projections using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global circulation models (GCMs) to analyze temperature extremes on PEI. In this study, the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis dataset was chosen for stepwise cluster analysis (SCA) due to its high accuracy. Three CMIP6 (NorESM2-MM, MPI-ESM1.2-HR, and CanESM5) GCMs, along with their ensemble average, were utilized in the SCA model to project future changes in daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) at four meteorological stations on PEI (East Point, Charlottetown, Summerside, and North Cape) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). These GCMs were selected based on their low, medium, and high Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. The bias-corrected results for the future period of Tmax and Tmin showed that the GCM-specific changes in the ECS also impact the regional scale. Additionally, several temperature extreme indices, including the daily temperature range (DTR), summer days (SU), growing degree days (GDD), growing season length (GSL), ice days (ID), and frost days (FD), were analyzed for two future periods: FP1(202–2050) and FP2 (2051–2075). The results indicate that DTR, SU, GDD, and GSL are expected to increase, while ID and FD are projected to decrease during FP1 and FP2 under both scenarios. The future projected mean monthly changes in Tmax, Tmin, and the selected temperature extreme indices highlight warmer future periods and an increase in agriculture-related indices such as GDD and GSL. Specifically, July, August, and September are expected to experience even higher temperatures in the future. As the climate becomes warmer, cold extreme events are projected to be shorter in duration but more intense in terms of their impact. The largest increments/decrements for Tmax, Tmin, and their relevant indices were observed during FP2 under SSP5-8.5. The outcomes of this study provide valuable insights for agricultural development, water resource management, and the formulation of effective mitigation strategies to address the impacts of climate change on PEI.

Recent Cereal Phenological Variations under Mediterranean Conditions

This study analyzes the temporal patterns of rainfed cereal phenology extracted from the GIMMS NDVI3g dataset in the main cereal-growing regions under a Mediterranean climate in Spain, Portugal, France and Italy during the period 1982–2022. The series before and after the beginning of the 21st century were analyzed separately. Phenological parameters were extracted using the modified dynamic threshold method, and their trends were analyzed. Correlation analyses were performed to study the relationships among these parameters and to analyze the influence of hydroclimatic variables on the start (SOS) and end (EOS) of the growing season. Results showed a temporal reversal in phenological trends between both study periods, coinciding with the global warming hiatus. In the first period (1982–2002), SOS and EOS advanced (−7.5 and −3.1 days, respectively), and the length of growing season (LOS) increased. However, during the second stage (2003–2022), SOS and EOS were delayed (7.5 and 1.7 days, respectively), and LOS decreased. Similar dynamics were observed for the influence of the hydroclimatic variables on SOS and EOS, stronger in the first period and weaker in the second. This study provides valuable information on the phenological dynamics of rainfed cereals that may be useful for their management and planning in climate change scenarios.

Assessing the Impacts of Mulching-Induced Warming Effects on Machine-Picked Cotton Zones

The 20th century saw notable fluctuations in global temperatures, which significantly impacted agricultural climate zones across the Earth. Focusing on Xinjiang, China, a leading region in machine-picked cotton production, we identified several key thermal indicators influencing the yield, including the sum of active temperatures ≥ 10 °C, the mean temperature in July, the climatological growing season length, the April–May sum of active temperatures, the last frost day, and the defoliant spray time. Using meteorological data from 58 weather stations in Xinjiang, we examined the spatiotemporal trends of these indicators during the 1981–2020 period. Additionally, we attempted to determine the effects of plastic mulching on the sowing area and the zoning area of machine-picked cotton in different suitable zones based on these indicators. In conclusion, the overall thermal resources in Xinjiang are exhibiting an upward trend and show a distribution pattern of “more in the south of Xinjiang than in the north of Xinjiang, and more in the plains and basins than in the mountains”. Under the plastic-mulching mechanism, the zoning area of the suitable zone has increased by 15.7% (2.15 × 103 km2), suggesting that climate warming and the widespread application of mulching technology provide unexplored potential for the most suitable regions for machine-picked cotton in Xinjiang, while the 14.5% (0.26 × 103 km2) and 7.8% (0.17 × 103 km2) reductions in the unsuitable and less suitable zones, respectively, suggest that the planting areas of machine-picked cotton in both the less suitable and unsuitable zones, particularly with the existing regional planning, continue to demonstrate an irrational expansion. Therefore, to sustain Xinjiang’s cotton industry’s resilience and productivity, policymakers need to prioritize proactive land management and sustainable land allocation practices in response to changing climate patterns to optimize cotton production.

Grassland productivity in arid Central Asia depends on the greening rate rather than the growing season length

Climate change has induced substantial impact on the gross primary productivity (GPP) of terrestrial ecosystems by affecting vegetation phenology. Nevertheless, it remains unclear which among the mean rates of grass greening (RG), yellowing (RY), and the length of growing season (LOS) exhibit stronger explanatory power for GPP variations, and how RG and RY affect GPP variations under warming scenarios. Here, we explored the relationship between RG, RY, LOS, and GPP in arid Central Asia (ACA) from 1982 to 2019, elucidating the response mechanisms of RG, RY, and GPP to the mean temperature (TMP), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), precipitation (PRE), and soil moisture (SM). The results showed that the multi-year average length of greening (LG) in ACA was 22.7 days shorter than that of yellowing (LY) and the multi-year average GPP during LG (GPPlg) was 38.28 g C m−2 d −1 more than that of during LY (GPPly). RG and RY were positively correlated with GPPlg and GPPly, although the degree of correlation between RG and GPPlg was higher than that between RY and GPPly. Increases in RG and RY contributed to an increase in GPPlg (55.44 % of annual GPP) and GPPly (35.44 % of annual GPP). The correlation between RG and GPPlg was the strongest (0.49), followed by RY and GPPly (0.33), and LOS and GPP was the weakest (0.21). TMP, VPD, PRE, and SM primarily affected GPP by influencing RG and RY, rather than direct effects. The positive effects of TMP during LG (TMPlg), PRE during LG (PRElg), and SM during LG (SMlg) facilitated increases in RG and GPPlg, and higher VPD during LY (VPDly) and lower PRE during LY (PREly) accelerated increases in RY. Our study elucidated the impact of vegetation growth rate on GPP, thus providing an alternate method of quantifying the relationship between vegetation phenology and GPP.

Assessing the Seasonal Water Requirement of Fully Mature Japanese Plum Orchards: A Systematic Review

Japanese plums have relatively high water requirements, which depend on supplementing rainfall volumes with accurately quantified irrigation water. There is a lack of knowledge on the seasonal water requirements of plum orchards. This gap in the literature poses an imminent threat to the long-term sustainability of the South African plum industry, which is particularly plagued by climate change and diminishing water resources. The systematic literature review conducted in this study aimed to provide a foundation for supporting water management in irrigated Japanese plum [Prunus salicina Lindl.] orchards. Seventeen peer-reviewed articles obtained from the literature were analyzed. Approximately 66% of the cultivars were cultivated under different regulated deficit irrigation regimes for water-saving purposes and to increase fruit quality. This review of our knowledge provided benchmark figures on the annual water requirements of Japanese plums. The full-year plum crop water requirements obtained from the literature ranged between 921 and 1211 mm a−1. Canopy growth, pruning and growing season length were the most common causes of differences in the water requirement estimates. Further research is required to measure the water requirement of plums from planting to full-bearing age and the response of plum trees to water stress, especially in the South African context.