Legitimate Inference Research Articles

Mislabeled and ambiguous market names in invertebrate and finfish seafood conceal species of conservation concern in Calgary, Alberta, Canada.

The mislabeling of seafood, wherein a food product's marketed name does not match its contents, has the potential to mask species of conservation concern. Less discussed is the role of legally ambiguous market names, wherein a single name could be used to sell multiple species. Here we report the first study in Canada to examine mislabeling and ambiguous market names in both invertebrate (e.g., bivalve, cephalopod, shrimp) and finfish products. A total of 109 invertebrate and 347 finfish products were sampled in Calgary between 2014 and 2020. Market names were documented from the label or equivalent and determined to be precise (the name could apply to only one species) or ambiguous (multiple species could be sold under that name). A region of the cytochrome c oxidase I gene was sequenced and compared to reference sequences from boldsystems.org. Samples were considered mislabeled if the species identified through DNA barcoding did not correspond to the market name, as determined through the Canadian Food Inspection Agency Fish List. Mislabeling was further differentiated between semantic mislabeling, wherein the market name was not found on the Fish List but the barcode identity was in line with what a consumer could reasonably have expected to have purchased; invalid market names, wherein the market name was so unusual that no legitimate inferences as to the product's identity could be made; and product substitution, wherein the DNA barcode identified the product as a species distinct from that associated with the market name. Invalid market names and product substitutions were used to provide conservative estimates of mislabeling. The global conservation status of the DNA-identified invertebrate or finfish was determined through the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List. A logistic regression was used to determine the relationship between precision and accuracy in predicting conservation status of the sampled species. There was no significant difference in mislabeling occurrence between invertebrates (33.9% total mislabeling occurrence, 20.2% product substitution) and finfish (32.3% total mislabeling occurrence, 21.3% product substitution/invalid market names). Product substitutions sometimes involved species of conservation concern, such as foods marketed as freshwater eel (Anguilla rostrata) that were determined through DNA barcoding to be European eel (Anguilla anguilla), or cuttlefish balls putatively identified as the Endangered threadfin porgy (Evynnis cardinalis). Product substitutions and ambiguous market names were significantly associated with the sale of species of conservation concern, but ambiguity was a more important predictor. Although preventing the mislabeling of seafoods can and must remain a priority in Canada, our work suggests that moving towards precise names for all seafood products will better support sustainable fisheries goals.

Spaniards articulate faster than Mexicans

Abstract We analyse articulation rate and speech rate, number and duration of pauses for 22 speakers of two regional varieties of Spanish (Madrilenian vs Mexican) in three different tasks (reading, picture description and interview). Our results show that speakers from Madrid have higher articulation rate and speech rate than speakers from Mexico, but that such differences are mainly observed in spontaneous speech (picture description). Instead, the number and duration of pauses were not significantly affected by the origin of speakers. Some methodological issues are discussed in order to make legitimate inferences from this exploratory study.

Interpretation of Brain Activity Using Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has paved the way for the noninvasive measurement of human brain activity. However, it does not directly detect neuronal activity, and its interpretation requires caution. In addition, conventional fMRI usually detects brain activity induced by specific mental states, and conventional analysis methods are prone to drawing unwarranted inferences from brain activity to mental states. To move toward a legitimate inference, we introduce multivoxel pattern-based analyses and an online database system that correctly considers the Bayes' theorem.

The Amount of Arabic Language Science Necessary to Understand the Islamic Texts and Derive Legal Provisions

The Arabic language may be one of the obstacles facing the researcher of legal texts due to the breadth of its vocabulary and the diversity of its structures, formulas and semantics. Moreover, its old age, foreign influence, limited environments of pure Arabic and lack of practice in its pure form even in Arab countries where it is often relegated to academic or religious settings have weakened people’s mastery of Arabic. Allah decided to reveal His Book in Arabic, and chose Muhammad (PBUH) from the pure-tongued tribe of Quraish as His Prophet. As such, the researcher of Islamic texts, should, in principle, have reached mastery of Arabic similar to the language spoken by the Prophet (PBUH) and his companions. The righteous successors and Muslim scholars (Arab and non-Arab) have sought to preserve the purity of the Arabic language. The problem that arises is the role Arabic plays in deriving laws from Islam’s legal texts, and what level of Arabic proficiency is required, the correct methodology for its study and its applicability, and the obstacles to applying this approach. We examine the importance of Arabic in understanding Islamic texts, the amount of Arabic to devise Islamic rulings, the best way to study and use it to understanding the legal texts and draw legitimate inferences, in addition to the obstacles to reaching valid inferences.

Is an Appeal to Popularity a Fallacy of Popularity?

It is common to view appeals to popularity as fallacious. We argue this is a mistake and that Condorcet’s jury theorem can be used to justify at least some appeals to popularity as legitimate inferences. More importantly, the conditions for the application of Condorcet’s theorem (binary claim, competent judge, epistemic independence) can be used as critical tools when evaluating appeals to popularity. The application of these three concepts to appeals to popularity provide a more fine-grained critical strategy for argument evaluation and, also, allow us to see the real problems that often arise with such appeals more clearly.

On the Entity and Antiquity of the Aurignacian at Willendorf (Austria): Implications for Modern Human Emergence in Europe

The time of the Aurignacian’s first appearance in the archeological record lies at the heart of debates on the emergence of European anatomically modern humans. Based on a re-study of Archeological Horizon (AH) 3 of Willendorf II, it has been claimed that the Early Aurignacian was present in the loess plains of Lower Austria by 43.5 ka (thousands of calendar years ago), several millennia earlier than in western Europe. The claim rests on the argument that a refit set linking an area excavated 2006–2011 with another excavated 1908–1909 implies that the two stone tool collections derive from a single, homogeneous assemblage. Therefore, the dating of the 2006–2011 context would also date the Early Aurignacian diagnostics found in the 1908–1909 collection. Based on the published evidence, this argument cannot be supported. The 1908–1909 excavation extended way beyond the boundaries of the stratigraphic level in which AH3 was identified in 2006–2011: lens C8-3 of subunit C8. Northward, subunit C8 becomes internally undifferentiated and merges with subunit C7 above, within which a new horizon, AH3ab, was first formally recognized in 2006–2011. This evidence implies that “AH3” of 1908–1909 was a stratigraphically heterogeneous unit over at least half of the area then excavated and that the stone tools it yielded must be treated as a multi-component assemblage that conflates material derived from at least two different occupation horizons. In line with the chrono-stratigraphy of Europe’s Early Upper Paleolithic sequence, the few Early Aurignacian diagnostics found in the “AH3” collection of 1908–1909 must date to ca.39.1 ka, the calendar age of AH3ab. The single refit set linking the two collections shows that an earlier component, dated to ca.43.5 ka by the 2006–2011 work, is also represented in the collection from 1908 to 1909. However, in the absence of diagnostics, the technocomplex affinities of that earlier component cannot be ascertained. The association of the Early Aurignacian with modern humans in Lower Austria remains a legitimate inference but is valid for the ca.38–40 ka time range, not before.

A universal robust method for analysing bivariate continuous and proportion data

Traditionally, analysis of Hydrology employs only one hydrological variable. Recently, Nadarajah [A bivariate distribution with gamma and beta marginals with application to drought data. J Appl Stat. 2009;36:277–301] proposed a bivariate model with gamma and beta as marginal distributions to analyse the drought duration and the proportion of drought events. However, the validity of this method hinges on fulfilment of stringent assumptions. We propose a robust likelihood approach which can be used to make inference for general bivariate continuous and proportion data. Unlike the gamma–beta (GB) model which is sensitive to model misspecification, the new method provides legitimate inference without knowing the true underlying distribution of the bivariate data. Simulations and the analysis of the drought data from the State of Nebraska, USA, are provided to make contrasts between this robust approach and the GB model.

Covenants and Courtrooms, Imputation and Imitation: Righteousness and Justification in Paul and the Faithfulness of God

This article offers a response to the discussion of righteousness and justification in N. T. Wright's Paul and the Faithfulness of God. Though finding much in Wright's treatment to appreciate, it argues for a greater emphasis on the active, ethical dimensions of what Paul has in mind by "righteousness" (divine and human) and for the retention of the notion of the imputation of Christ's righteousness to believers, not as an explicit Pauline assertion but as a legitimate inference from Pauline premises. Understood in this manner, the doctrine of imputation (far from cutting the nerve between justification and transformation) opens up a way to draw straighter, clearer lines of commensurability and correspondence between the righteousness of God (expressed in his actions as creator, covenant maker, law giver, covenant keeper and judge), the righteousness of Christ (imputed to us in our justification and given as an example to imitate), and the righteousness of life to which we are called in the gospel.

Covenants and Courtrooms, Imputation and Imitation: Righteousness and Justification in Paul and the Faithfulness of God

This article offers a response to the discussion of righteousness and justification in N. T. Wright's Paul and the Faithfulness of God. Though finding much in Wright's treatment to appreciate, it argues for a greater emphasis on the active, ethical dimensions of what Paul has in mind by "righteousness" (divine and human) and for the retention of the notion of the imputation of Christ's righteousness to believers, not as an explicit Pauline assertion but as a legitimate inference from Pauline premises. Understood in this manner, the doctrine of imputation (far from cutting the nerve between justification and transformation) opens up a way to draw straighter, clearer lines of commensurability and correspondence between the righteousness of God (expressed in his actions as creator, covenant maker, law giver, covenant keeper and judge), the righteousness of Christ (imputed to us in our justification and given as an example to imitate), and the righteousness of life to which we are called in the gospel.

Determining the mean–variance relationship in generalized linear models—A parametric robust way

This article introduces a parametric robust way of determining the mean–variance relationship in the setting of generalized linear models. More specifically, the normal likelihood is properly amended to become asymptotically valid even if normality fails. Consequently, legitimate inference for the parametric relationship between mean and variance could be derived under model misspecification. More details are given to the scenario when the variance is proportional to an unknown power of the mean function. The efficacy of the novel technique is demonstrated via simulations and the analysis of two real data sets.

Dharmakīrti on the role of causation in inference as presented in Pramāṇavārttika Svopajñavṛtti 11–38

In the svārthānumāna chapter of his Pramāṇavārttika, the Buddhist philosopher Dharmakīrti presented a defense of his claim that legitimate inference must rest on a metaphysical basis if it is to be immune from the risks ordinarily involved in inducing general principles from a finite number of observations. Even if one repeatedly observes that x occurs with y and never observes y in the absence of x, there is no guarantee, on the basis of observation alone, that one will never observe y in the absence of x at some point in the future. To provide such a guarantee, claims Dharmakīrti, one must know that there is a causal connection between x and y such that there is no possibility of y occurring in the absence of x. In the course of defending this central claim, Dharmakīrti ponders how one can know that there is a causal relationship of the kind necessary to guarantee a proposition of the form “Every y occurs with an x.” He also dismisses an interpretation of his predecessor Dignāga whereby Dignāga would be claiming non-observation of y in the absence of x is sufficient to warrant to the claim that no y occurs without x. The present article consists of a translation of kārikās 11–38 of Pramānavārttikam, svārthānumānaparicchedaḥ along with Dharmakīrti’s own prose commentary. The translators have also provided an English commentary, which includes a detailed introduction to the central issues in the translated text and their history in the literature before Dharmakīrti.

Threats to the validity of locally developed multiple-choice tests in medical education: construct-irrelevant variance and construct underrepresentation.

Construct-irrelevant variance (CIV) - the erroneous inflation or deflation of test scores due to certain types of uncontrolled or systematic measurement error - and construct underrepresentation (CUR) - the under-sampling of the achievement domain - are discussed as threats to the meaningful interpretation of scores from objective tests developed for local medical education use. Several sources of CIV and CUR are discussed and remedies are suggested. Test score inflation or deflation, due to the systematic measurement error introduced by CIV, may result from poorly crafted test questions, insecure test questions and other types of test irregularities, testwiseness, guessing, and test item bias. Using indefensible passing standards can interact with test scores to produce CIV. Sources of content underrepresentation are associated with tests that are too short to support legitimate inferences to the domain and which are composed of trivial questions written at low-levels of the cognitive domain. "Teaching to the test" is another frequent contributor to CUR in examinations used in medical education. Most sources of CIV and CUR can be controlled or eliminated from the tests used at all levels of medical education, given proper training and support of the faculty who create these important examinations.

Formal Rationality and Its Pernicious Effects on the Social Sciences

This article argues that a particular notion of rationality, more exactly a specific notion of legitimate inference, is presupposed by much work in the social sciences to their detriment. The author describes the notion of rationality he has in mind, explains why it is misguided, identifies where and how it affects social research, and illustrates why that research is weaker as a result. The notion of legitimate inference the author has in mind is one that believes inferences are guided by principles that are formal, universal and a priori—that is, that make no substantive, domain-specific empirical assumptions about the world. The author briefly provides a variety of reasons to be skeptical about such principles. Those reasons extend from broad philosophical considerations to quasi-empirical evidence. The author then argues that this notion of inference is involved with both the practice and the content of the social sciences in various ways. In terms of practice, this notion of inference lies behind the way statistical testing is generally done in the social sciences. In terms of content, the author argues that this notion of rationality is invoked, for example, in game theory and in rational expectations macroeconomics. In all cases, use of the formal rationality notion leads social scientists to put more faith in their results than is warranted and thus is an obstacle to doing better social science.

Fundamentals of expert systems: I. Judgements formation and problems of description

This paper is concerned with the problems of the mechanisms underlying the formation of judgements, as well as the problems of expression of these judgements in form ranging from simple answers to binary questions, to generation of texts or discourses. The paper deals with psychological, logical and linguistic aspects of judgement. The particular stress is on the role of ambiguity and its unavoidability, connected with such properties of perception as the ability of discrimination and identification. It is also shown how these properties of perception constrain the logical values, such as truth, leading to its uncertainty and vagueness, and thus limit the legitimate inference that can be drawn from subjective judgements.

The Argument From Design: Some Better Reasons for Agreeing with Hume

I. The argument from design or ‘teleological argument’ purports to be an inductive proof for the existence of God, proceeding from the evidence of the order exhibited by natural phenomena to the probable conclusion of a rational agent responsible for producing that order. The argument was severely criticized by David Hume in his Dialogues Concerning Natural Religion, and it was widely conceded that Hume's objections had cast serious doubt on the adequacy of the teleological argument, if not destroyed its credibility entirely. However, there has been a recent reappraisal of this claim by R. G. Swinburne, who maintains that none of Hume's criticisms have any validity against a ‘carefully articulated version of the argument’. Using an analogical argument based on temporal regularities rather than on spatial regularities (or arrangement of parts), Swinburne claims to have shown that the teleological argument is a legitimate inference to the best explanation whose force depends only on the strength of the analogy and on the degree to which the resulting theory makes explanation of empirical matters simpler and more coherent. Moreover, he claims to have shown that the argument provides support for the Christian monotheistic hypothesis and not merely for the weak claim that the universe was designed (somehow). This is an important claim since it has long been thought that Hume's most devastating blow was dealt when he showed that the teleological argument (if it is admitted to have any force at all) provides just as much support for the negation of certain propositions considered essential to Christian monotheism as it does for their affirmation.

Development from Grades V through XI of Children's Ability to Make Correct Causal Inferences

Pupils in Grades V, VIII, and XI (ages 11, 14, and 17) were compared for ability to draw legitimate causal inferences with respect to 10 simple logical problems. Two versions of the instrument were used, a “synthetic” free-response form which made it easy for children to carry deductions beyond the permissible, and an “analytic” multiple-choice form. Internal consistency reliability of both forms was in the range .75c to .90c. Sex differences on both forms were trivial, but grade differences, especially Grade V vs Grade VIII and Grade XI, were significant and substantial in size. Unless sensitized to avoid them, children, regardless of grade, tended to draw overly sweeping inferences, perhaps because of a need for closure. Older children, however, were more successful at suspending judgment when no definite conclusion was justified. Apparently tolerance of ambiguity, which has been described as an adult personality trait, has a developmental aspect.

Going beyond tests of significance: Is psychology ready?

A criticism is offered for the recent efforts to encourage psychologists to report the proportion of variance accounted for (ω2 ) by analysis of variance effects. Few psychological experiments employ designs that allow legitimate inferences as to the strength of particular effects. As such, ω2 is a descriptive statistic that is extremely limited in its usefulness. It is suggested that a widespread reporting of ω2 in psychology is not only unnecessary, but could also be misleading.

The twin-family method in psychiatric genetics illustrated from the investigations of Franz J. Kallmann.

The present paper is aimed to celebrate Franz J. Kallmann's memory, by illustrating the twin-family method, which he developed. His phenomenal powers of organization are testified to by his extensive samples. Their representative nature has the built-in check of the ratio of MZ: DZ twins. He brought a refinement of his own to the existing methods of calculating expectancy from nett figures, that permits comparison of studies of varying age distributions relative to manifestation period. His investigative design allows not only for the standard global concordance comparisons between DZ and MZ twins as well as for those reared together and apart, but exploits the implications of the hitherto neglected comparison of the categories of sibs and DZ twins also. Further, his combined twin-family method comprehends in its extended range the powerful analytical tool of comparative figures for the series step-sibs, half-sibs, sibs, DZ twins and MZ twins (Kallmann and Sander, 1947; Kallmann, 1953). Kallmann (1954a, 1954b) has moreover given minute attention to controversies concerning legitimate inferences from twin studies, and has drawn attention to a point made by Darlington (1953), which is often overlooked by the best of geneticists. Discordance between MZ twins is not a measure merely of postnatal or even of prenatal environmental effects: it may also have a genetic component through the action of genes sensitive to cytoplasmic asymmetry.

The Real Meaning of the New Conception of Time

THE fascinating presidential address of Dr. Jeans to the Royal Astronomical Society, published in NATURE for February 27, with its poetical allusions to children chasing a rainbow over the hills, and to what seems the successive extinction of the shires as one gazes at the country from the windows of an express, must have helped many of us to make fast our hold upon the principles of the general theory of relativity. Yet it is doubtful whether the full implications for the doctrine are generally realised—of such a statement, for example, as “The year 1927 has the same sort of existence as the county of Cornwall.” The legitimate inference surely amounts to nothing less momentous than this: that everything that has ever existed or happened, or that ever will exist or happen, in the universe, is immanent in physical space-time or ‘ether’; and that what to us participators in the drama being enacted on the space-time stage appears to be the special differentiation of the present—of now—from the past and the future, is merely an illusion due to our experiencing changes in a certain dimension of the four-dimensional continuum, which imparts the impression of travelling along that dimension and hence the idea of flowing time.

IX.—On some points in the History of Inlaid Jewellery

The Early Teutonic jewellery ornamented with garnets and glass pastes, frequently known as Orfévrerie Cloisonnée, has been so extensively discussed that it may appear almost superfluous to draw attention to it once more. But the publication in the following pages of objects now in the British Museum will, it is hoped, supply fresh links in the chain of evidence connecting it with the East; for it is now universally agreed that this kind of jewellery entered Europe from Asia, and it is with examples of early date from that continent that we are here chiefly concerned. The principal aim of this Paper is to make better known the armlet from the Oxus, and the reliquary from Afghanistan reproduced by figures 1 and 2 of the accompanying coloured plate (Plate XVI.). But in considering these objects it has been difficult to avoid speculation as to the origin of the style of ornamentation which they represent. The early date and pronounced Perse-politan style of the armlet bring us nearer to Egypt than anything hitherto discovered in the East, and in view of these facts, we are tempted to revive the question whether the Cloisonnée jewellery of Central Asia can have been introduced from the banks of the Nile. The opposite theory, which regards this jewellery as indigenous in Asia, has probably the balance of opinion in its favour; but in the present state of our knowledge, its acceptance would appear to involve something of a dilemma. For on this view the great antiquity of the earliest Egyptian jewels in this style would compel us either to prove that their Eastern prototypes were in existence some three thousand years before Christ; or to suppose two independent centres of invention, one in Asia, the other in Africa, thus severing Egypt from all connection with the development of the art on the neighbouring continent. Time may remove the difficulties incident to these alternatives, but at present neither of them is easy of acceptance. The perfection of the famous inlaid jewels of Dashur (figs. 1 and la), which belong to the twelfth dynasty (third millennium, B.C.), would make it necessary to assume from their rude Asiatic forerunners an almost fabulous antiquity. But so far as I am aware, neither Babylonia nor Assyria, Central Asia, or India, have as yet produced anything in this style of so remote a date; and though the early archæology of China is at present so little known that it may have many surprises in store, as matters now stand it is a legitimate inference that the Far East could hardly have exercised an artistic influence towards the West thirty centuries before the beginning of our era. The theory which derives enamelling from Asia, does not involve the same dilemma, because this was not one of the characteristic arts of Ancient Egypt.