Development from Grades V through XI of Children's Ability to Make Correct Causal Inferences

Abstract

Pupils in Grades V, VIII, and XI (ages 11, 14, and 17) were compared for ability to draw legitimate causal inferences with respect to 10 simple logical problems. Two versions of the instrument were used, a “synthetic” free-response form which made it easy for children to carry deductions beyond the permissible, and an “analytic” multiple-choice form. Internal consistency reliability of both forms was in the range .75c to .90c. Sex differences on both forms were trivial, but grade differences, especially Grade V vs Grade VIII and Grade XI, were significant and substantial in size. Unless sensitized to avoid them, children, regardless of grade, tended to draw overly sweeping inferences, perhaps because of a need for closure. Older children, however, were more successful at suspending judgment when no definite conclusion was justified. Apparently tolerance of ambiguity, which has been described as an adult personality trait, has a developmental aspect.