Latitudinal Shifts Research Articles

Sources of Subseasonal‐To‐Seasonal Predictability of Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation in the Western United States

AbstractAtmospheric rivers (ARs) account for a large portion of winter precipitation in the western US. To evaluate the sources of AR and precipitation predictability at subseasonal‐to‐seasonal timescales, we examine the relationships between two climate modes, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO), and winter hydroclimate in the western US. Our analysis uses a large ensemble of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations from 1981 to 2017, facilitating the assessment of uncertainty in climate mode‐AR relationship due to climate variability and short length of observations. Over the North Pacific basin, we find ENSO‐related latitudinal shifts of ARs, but ENSO has little effect on basin‐wide averaged AR frequency. Over the western US, there is some uncertainty in the ENSO‐AR connection due to the impacts of ENSO indices and datasets. However, extreme El Niño events defined by the ENSO longitude index are consistently linked to increased landfalling AR activity. The MJO can lead to significantly enhanced or suppressed landfalling AR activity in the large‐ensembles, depending on the phase of MJO and time lag, while observations are too short in length to robustly show this signal. ENSO substantially modulates the MJO‐AR relationship, triggering variegated responses of landfalling ARs and AR precipitation in La Niña and El Niño years. Our findings highlight the need to evaluate concurrent effects of different climate modes on ARs and precipitation, and may shed light on a path toward more accurate subseasonal‐to‐seasonal prediction of ARs and precipitation over the western US.

Spatial and temporal shifts in photoperiod with climate change.

Climate change causes both temporal (e.g. advancing spring phenology) and geographic (e.g. range expansion poleward) species shifts, which affect the photoperiod experienced at critical developmental stages ('experienced photoperiod'). As photoperiod is a common trigger of seasonal biological responses - affecting woody plant spring phenology in 87% of reviewed studies that manipulated photoperiod - shifts in experienced photoperiod may have important implications for future plant distributions and fitness. However, photoperiod has not been a focus of climate change forecasting to date, especially for early-season ('spring') events, often assumed to be driven by temperature. Synthesizing published studies, we find that impacts on experienced photoperiod from temporal shifts could be orders of magnitude larger than from spatial shifts (1.6h of change for expected temporal vs 1min for latitudinal shifts). Incorporating these effects into forecasts is possible by leveraging existing experimental data; we show that results from growth chamber experiments on woody plants often have data relevant for climate change impacts, and suggest that shifts in experienced photoperiod may increasingly constrain responses to additional warming. Further, combining modeling approaches and empirical work on when, where and how much photoperiod affects phenology could rapidly advance our understanding and predictions of future spatio-temporal shifts from climate change.

Climate-driven flyway changes and memory-based long-distance migration.

Millions of migratory birds occupy seasonally favourable breeding grounds in the Arctic1, but we know little about the formation, maintenance and future of the migration routes of Arctic birds and the genetic determinants of migratory distance. Here we established a continental-scale migration system that used satellite tracking to follow 56peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus) from 6populations that breed in the Eurasian Arctic, and resequenced 35genomes from 4of these populations. The breeding populations used five migration routes across Eurasia, which were probably formed by longitudinal and latitudinal shifts in their breeding grounds during the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene epoch. Contemporary environmental divergence between the routes appears to maintain their distinctiveness. We found that the gene ADCY8 is associated with population-level differences in migratory distance. We investigated the regulatory mechanism of this gene, and found that long-term memory was the most likely selective agent for divergence in ADCY8 among the peregrine populations. Global warming is predicted to influence migration strategies and diminish the breeding ranges of peregrine populations of the Eurasian Arctic. Harnessing ecological interactions and evolutionary processes to study climate-driven changes in migration can facilitate the conservation of migratory birds.

An Orchid in Retrograde: Climate-Driven Range Shift Patterns of Ophrys helenae in Greece.

Climate change is regarded as one of the most important threats to plants. Already species around the globe are showing considerable latitudinal and altitudinal shifts. Helen’s bee orchid (Ophrys helenae), a Balkan endemic with a distribution center in northwestern Greece, is reported to be expanding east and southwards. Since this southeastern movement goes against the usual expectations, we investigated via Species Distribution Modelling, whether this pattern is consistent with projections based on the species’ response to climate change. We predicted the species’ future distribution based on three different climate models in two climate scenarios. We also explored the species’ potential distribution during the Last Interglacial and the Last Glacial Maximum. O. helenae is projected to shift mainly southeast and experience considerable area changes. The species is expected to become extinct in the core of its current distribution, but to establish a strong presence in the mid- and high-altitude areas of the Central Peloponnese, a region that could have provided shelter in previous climatic extremes.

Ormosia (Fabaceae: Faboideae) from the Miocene of southeastern China support historical expansion of the tropical genus in East Asia

ABSTRACT The development of the Asian monsoonal climate sparked a latitudinal shift in vegetation zones from the Oligocene to the Miocene. However, little is known about the history of the megathermal floristic response to the geologic events in key regions like subtropical China. Here, a species of Fabaceae, Ormosia cyclocarpa sp. nov., is recognised based on well-preserved fruits from the Miocene of Zhejiang in middle-subtropical China. This species features dehiscent, compressed suborbicular single-seeded pods with an intramarginal vein. Extensive comparisons with extant/fossil fabaceous taxa confidently support the present taxonomic consideration. Considering the extant distribution, diversity centre and regional climate history, the known fossil occurrences in southern China imply that Ormosia extended northwards during the Miocene from probable tropics of origin into subtropical China, where a once broad latitudinal arid zone prevailed throughout much of the Palaeogene. Such a changing phytogeographic pattern across tropical-subtropical China probably resulted from a drastic East Asian climate change around the Oligo-Miocene boundary, and closely coincided with the early-middle Miocene warming. The spreading of Ormosia and other tropical genera (e.g. Dipterocarpus, Shorea, Bauhinia, Dacrycarpus) sharing similar floristic history in subtropical China indicates a palaeotropical and Miocene origin for some clades of the extant East Asian flora.

Latitudinal changes in the trophic structure of benthic coastal food webs along the Antarctic Peninsula

Stable isotopes of C and N have been used to assess the effect of the duration of the sea ice season on the structure of benthic, Antarctic coastal food webs. Samples of suspended particulate organic matter, macroalgae and macroinvertebrates were collected at five subtidal rocky sites across a latitudinal gradient along the western Antarctic Peninsula and among the South Shetland Islands. We tested the hypotheses that trophic positions of omnivores decrease, and food web structure becomes more redundant at higher latitudes. A latitudinal shift in the isotope baseline was detected for both δ13C and δ15N, but the trophic positions of macroinvertebrates and their relative positions along the δ13C axis and were basically constant across sites, even after rescaling stable isotope ratios to account for shifts in the baseline. Although the northernmost and southernmost study sites differed significantly in most of the metrics of the food web structure, changes with latitude and the duration of the sea ice season were non-monotonic. Highly productive phytoplankton blooms during the ice-free season at Esperanza Bay and Rothera Point may explain the observed pattern, as they result in a massive supply of planktonic organic matter to the detritus bank in the seabed and, hence, shorten the C range and increase trophic redundancy. If this hypothesis is correct, the intensity of the summer phytoplankton bloom can be as relevant for the structure of the benthic marine food web as the duration of the sea ice season.

Unravelling potential northward migration pathways for tree species under climate change

AbstractAimClimate‐induced range expansion ultimately implies recruitment at sites that were previously unoccupied by a species (i.e. colonization events). Using evidence on abiotic conditions and biotic interactions at these migration sites, we aimed to identify migration pathways from northern temperate to boreal forests for species showing northward range expansion.LocationQuebec, Canada.TaxonTrees of northern temperate/boreal forests.MethodsUsing past (1970–1977) and recently updated (2003–2015) forest inventories across 761,100 km2, we first quantified latitudinal shifts for saplings of eight tree species and investigated colonization events at migration sites. We used field evidence and a consensus modelling approach to determine environmental suitability and identify edaphic, climatic and disturbance conditions, as well as species co‐occurrence patterns, characterizing recent colonization events. The results were interpreted in relation to novel species associations facilitating species migration in unsuitable landscapes.ResultsAll species showed northward latitudinal shifts driven by increased recruitment and colonization northward. Colonization events occurred largely at historically unsuitable sites. Migration sites showed a shift towards humus types characteristic of the boreal forest and not typically found in the core range of most temperate species. Climatic conditions at migration sites were initially colder than at occupied sites, but warming suggests recent climatic suitability. A decrease in conifer basal area at migration sites following disturbances reduced priority effects that possibly constrained deciduous species establishment. Co‐occurrence patterns pointed to deciduous species tolerant of boreal edaphic conditions, leading the way for other temperate species.Main conclusionsTemperate tree species can recruit into sites typical of boreal forests, even under environmentally challenging conditions. Warming and disturbances open up the way for some novel species associations that in turn have the potential to facilitate the recruitment of temperate species into the boreal forest, revealing migration pathways.

Glacial to interglacial climate variability in the southeastern African subtropics (25–20° S)

Abstract. We present a continuous and well-resolved record of climatic variability for the past 100 000 years from a marine sediment core taken in Delagoa Bight, off southeastern Africa. In addition to providing a sea surface temperature reconstruction for the past ca. 100 000 years, this record also allows a high-resolution continental climatic reconstruction. Climate sensitive organic proxies, like the distribution and isotopic composition of plant-wax lipids as well as elemental indicators of fluvial input and weathering type provide information on climatic changes in the adjacent catchment areas (Incomati, Matola and Lusutfu rivers). At the transition between glacials and interglacials, shifts in vegetation correlate with changes in sea surface temperature in the Agulhas Current. The local hydrology, however, does not follow these orbitally paced shifts. Instead, precipitation patterns follow millennial-scale variations with different forcing mechanisms in glacial vs. interglacial climatic states. During glacials, southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone facilitates a transmission of northern hemispheric signals (e.g., Heinrich events) to the southern hemispheric subtropics. Furthermore, the southern hemispheric westerlies become a more direct source of precipitation as they shift northward over the study site, especially during Antarctic cold phases. During interglacials, the observed short-term hydrological variability is also a function of Antarctic climate variability; however, it is driven by the indirect influence of the southern hemispheric westerlies and the associated South African high-pressure cell blocking the South Indian Ocean Convergence Zone related precipitation. As a consequence of the interplay of these effects, small-scale climatic zones exist. We propose a conceptual model describing latitudinal shifts of these zones along the southeastern African coast as tropical and temperate climate systems shift over glacial and interglacial cycles. The proposed model explains some of the apparent contradictions between several paleoclimate records in the region.

On the robustness of an eastern boundary upwelling ecosystem exposed to multiple stressors

The resistance of an east border upwelling system was investigated using relative index of marine pelagic biomass estimates under a changing environment spanning 20-years in the strongly exploited southern Canary Current Large marine Ecosystem (sCCLME). We divided the sCCLME in two parts (north and south of Cap Blanc), based on oceanographic regimes. We delineated two size-based groups (“plankton” and “pelagic fish”) corresponding to lower and higher trophic levels, respectively. Over the 20-year period, all spatial remote sensing environmental variables increased significantly, except in the area south of Cap Blanc where sea surface Chlorophyll-a concentrations declined and the upwelling favorable wind was stable. Relative index of marine pelagic abundance was higher in the south area compared to the north area of Cap Blanc. No significant latitudinal shift to the mass center was detected, regardless of trophic level. Relative pelagic abundance did not change, suggesting sCCLME pelagic organisms were able to adapt to changing environmental conditions. Despite strong annual variability and the presence of major stressors (overfishing, climate change), the marine pelagic ressources, mainly fish and plankton remained relatively stable over the two decades, advancing our understanding on the resistance of this east border upwelling system.

Scope for predicting seasonal variation of the SPCZ with ACCESS-S1

Regional seasonal forecasting requires accurate simulation of the variability of local climate drivers. The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is a large region of low-level convergence, clouds and precipitation in the South Pacific, whose effects extend as far as northeast Australia (NEA). The location of the SPCZ is modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which causes rainfall variability in the region. Correctly simulating the ENSO-SPCZ teleconnection and its interplay with local conditions is essential for improving seasonal rainfall forecasts. Here we analyse the ability of the ACCESS-S1 seasonal forecast system to predict the SPCZ’s relationship with ENSO including its latitudinal shifts, zonal slope and rainfall magnitude between 1990 and 2012 for the December–January–February (DJF) season. We found improvements in ACCESS-S1’s SPCZ prediction capability compared to its predecessor (POAMA), although prediction of the slope is still limited. The inability of ACCESS-S1 to replicate seasons with a strong anti-zonal SPCZ slope is attributed to its atmospheric model. This has implications for accurate seasonal rainfall forecasts for NEA and South Pacific Islands. Future challenges in seasonal prediction facing regional communities and developers of coupled ocean–atmosphere forecast models are discussed.

Larger offspring associated with lower temperatures across species of Microporella, a widespread colonial invertebrate

Among life history traits, offspring size has one of the most direct impacts on fitness, influencing growth, recruitment and survival of the individual, therefore affecting population, and ultimately macroevolutionary outcomes. Despite its ecological and evolutionary importance, little is known about how offspring size varies in lineages over macroevolutionary timescales, especially for colonial organisms. Here, we use the cheilostome bryozoan genus Microporella to investigate variation in offspring size over the history of the lineage. The genus Microporella is species-rich, cosmopolitan, has a calcified skeleton (and is hence readily preserved in the fossil record), and is a brooder. The brood structure (ovicell) reliably reflects the space occupied by a larva and hence ovicell size is a good proxy for offspring size. Using a suite of biotic and abiotic factors, we ask what best explains offspring/larval size variation in contemporary and fossil species of Microporella, and how offspring/larval size changes through the millions of years of the history of the lineage. We find that offspring size is affected by a combination of module size and water temperature (or latitude when fossil species are included), while fecundity and levels of nutrients have a weak to no effect on this life history trait. Among Microporella species, descendant species are statistically more likely to have larger offspring than their putative ancestors, with the size difference between species pairs little explained by temporal latitudinal shifts. Our results suggest that both contemporary ecological controls and historical considerations are important in understanding life history trait evolution.

Emissions from the Oil and Gas Sectors, Coal Mining and Ruminant Farming Drive Methane Growth over the Past Three Decades

Methane (CH4) is an important greenhouse gas and plays a significant role in tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. Despite the relevance of methane (CH4) in human-induced climate change and air pollution chemistry, there is no scientific consensus on the causes of changes in its growth rates and variability over the past three decades. We use a well-validated chemistry–transport model for simulating CH4 concentration and estimation of regional CH4 emissions by inverse modeling during 1988–2016. The control simulations are conducted using seasonally varying hydroxyl (OH) concentrations and assumed no interannual variability. Using inverse modeling of atmospheric observations, emission inventories, a wetland model, and a δ13C-CH4 box model, we show that reductions in emissions from Europe and Russia since 1988, particularly from oil–gas exploitation and enteric fermentation, led to decreased CH4 growth rates in the 1990s. This period was followed by a quasi-stationary state of CH4 in the atmosphere during the early 2000s. CH4 resumed growth from 2007, which we attribute to increases in emissions from coal mining mainly in China and the intensification of ruminant farming in tropical regions. A sensitivity simulation using interannually varying OH shows that regional emission estimates by inversion are unaffected for the mid- and high latitude areas. We show that meridional shift in CH4 emissions toward the lower latitudes and the increase in CH4 loss by hydroxyl (OH) over the tropics finely balance out, keeping the CH4 gradients between the southern hemispheric tropical and polar sites relatively unchanged during 1988–2016. The latitudinal emissions shift is confirmed using the global distributions of the total column CH4 observations via satellite remote sensing. During our analysis period, there is no evidence of emission enhancement due to climate warming, including the boreal regions. These findings highlight key sectors for effective emission reduction strategies toward climate change mitigation.

Climate warming affects the depth distribution of marine ectotherms

Climate change causes warming of the oceans, and there is consensus that many marine ectotherms, including marine invertebrates and fishes, respond to the increase in temperature by showing latitudinal range shifts in their distribution. However, the effect of ocean warming on the bathymetric distribution of marine ectotherms remains largely theoretical, and few works evidence bathymetric range shifts. Since warming is not exclusive of surface waters, the depth distribution of species should also be affected by warming. Here, I exemplify bathymetric distribution ranges of marine ectotherms from the North Atlantic and advocate that there will be species-specific shifts in the fundamental ecological niches occupied in response to climate warming. Combined temperature and pressure acclimation to match oxygen capacity demands at physiological thresholds is key to this process. Species-specific tolerance of hydrostatic pressure and temperature determines depth distribution ranges of marine ectotherms.

Disentangling the latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in community composition induced by climate change: The case of riparian birds

AbstractAimThis study investigates whether, and how, the composition of riparian bird communities has been affected by climate warming and habitat change. Although these two forces act separately, their respective contributions are rarely examined. Moreover, while the response of a given community may be a function of latitude and altitude, most studies have focused on these gradients separately. Riparian ecosystems are an opportunity to investigate community change along latitudinal and elevational gradients.LocationFrance, three major rivers (the Doubs, the Allier and the Loire)TaxonBirds.MethodsDrawing upon bird community monitoring data over a period of 31 years (1982–2013, n = 1,286 point counts), we assessed community adjustment to temperature increase with the Community Temperature Index (CTI), and the homogenization pattern following habitat conversion with the Community Specialization Index (CSI). We evaluated the spatial climatic debt accumulated by communities, and the interaction between CTI and CSI trends. Furthermore, we tested differences in trends for lowland and highland elevations.ResultsOver the study period, the temperature increased by 1.17°C, and the CTI by 0.12°C, which corresponds to a spatial climatic debt of 4.9 km/year. Lowland communities adjusted to warming but not highland communities, which have experienced a decline in species abundance. CSI trends revealed biotic homogenization in both lowland and highland communities. This finding was uncorrelated with the CTI increase, and is thought to be due to the pressure from land use change on community composition.Main conclusionsRiparian breeding bird communities have been affected by a temperature increase and, potentially, habitat change. Highland communities are most vulnerable to climate warming. Both climate warming and habitat change appear to have rapidly affected the composition of local communities, with expectable concerns on their diversity and specificity in the long term.

Modulation of seasonal precipitation in Argentina by the South Pacific high

AbstractThe aim of this work is to quantify the influence of the position and intensity of the South Pacific High (SPH) over seasonal rainfall in Argentina. Some indices were defined to measure the position and intensity of the SPH, and they were correlated with seasonal precipitation to study the relationship between them. Results indicate that the intensity of the SPH affects precipitation mainly in northern Argentina during spring and in the southern region in autumn and winter. The latitudinal shift of the SPH has proved to have a relevant impact on precipitation in the northeast in summer and winter, and in some regions of southern and central Argentina during winter and spring. When studying the possibility to foresee precipitation behaviour with a one‐month lag, these metrics were not able to predict precipitation effectively in the northwest. On the contrary, the SPH intensity showed significant lagged correlations with rainfall mainly in the northeast, central‐east and south during spring and summer while the position of the SPH is mostly significantly correlated with summer and winter precipitation in the northeast and central Argentina. Results suggest that the situation of SPH can provide some rainfall predictability.

Global warming increases latitudinal divergence in flowering dates of a perennial herb in humid regions across eastern Asia

Latitudinal patterns can reveal important ecological processes. The temporal overlap and divergence in flowering along latitudinal gradients is tightly related to intraspecific gene flow and interspecific interactions. Recent studies have predicted that global warming has led to more uniform spring and summer plant phenology across latitudes, but direct evidence is limited. Here, we test changes in the latitudinal pattern of peak flowering of a perennial herb Spiranthes sinensis (Orchidaceae) during 1901–2017 across ~40° of latitude in eastern Asia, spanning humid to water-limited regions. We found that flowering phenology did not vary significantly across latitudes in water-limited regions. However, global warming has significantly increased temporal divergence in flowering phenology across latitudes in humid regions—each 1 °C warming in mean annual temperature leads to an increased divergence of 2.47 days across 1° of latitude. Significantly stronger temperature sensitivity at lower latitudes is likely responsible for the increased phenological divergence. Additionally, we found that the phenological divergence is larger at lower latitudes in humid regions. These findings provide empirical evidence of variation in the latitudinal phenology shift at longer temporal and larger spatial scales under climate change, and highlight its potential role in ecosystem functioning, such as intraspecific gene flow and interspecific interaction.

Growth and behaviour of blue mussels, a re-emerging polar resident, follow a strong annual rhythm shaped by the extreme high Arctic light regime.

Polar regions are currently warming at a rate above the global average. One issue of concern is the consequences on biodiversity in relation to the Northward latitudinal shift in distribution of temperate species. In the present study, lasting almost two years, we examined two phenological traits, i.e. the shell growth and behavioural rhythm of a recently re-established species in the high Arctic, the blue mussel Mytilus sp. We compared this with a native species, the Islandic scallop Chlamys islandica. We show marked differences in the examined traits between the two species. In Mytilus sp., a clear annual pattern of shell growth strongly correlated to the valve behaviour rhythmicity, whereas C. islandica exhibited a shell growth pattern with a total absence of annual rhythmicity of behaviour. The shell growth was highly correlated to the photoperiod for the mussels but weaker for the scallops. The water temperature cycle was a very weak parameter to anticipate the phenology traits of both species. This study shows that the new resident in the high Arctic, Mytilus sp., is a highly adaptive species, and therefore a promising bioindicator to study the consequences of biodiversity changes due to global warming.

Cloud cover changes driven by atmospheric circulation in Europe during the last decades

AbstractDue to its complex role within the radiation budget of the Earth, cloud cover plays an important role in climate variability at local, regional or continental scale. Consequently, there is a need for better understanding the causes and feedbacks of changes in cloud cover. We aim at investigating the response of cloud cover to changes in atmospheric circulation for 1981–2014. This is done based on the application of automated weather type classification from COST733 synoptic classifications software, which helps in identifying a variety of atmospheric circulation types for selected domains. Two major spatial changes in cloud cover over Europe are identified, in connection with atmospheric circulation, associated with the latitudinal shift towards the north of the westerly circulation. The first one is related to a decrease of the cloud cover over the inner continent and especially in the East of Europe in connection with an increase of circulation types associated with high pressures centers development over the central and northern part of the continent. The second one, which is weaker in intensity, indicates an increase of cloud cover in the south‐western part of Europe as a result of a decrease in circulation types induced by the development of the Azores High and its northeastward ridges. The changes in cloud cover distribution and also in radiation fluxes, imposed by these shifts in atmospheric circulation over the continent, are higher in the Eastern and Central Europe.

Longer photoperiods through range shifts and artificial light lead to a destabilizing increase in host-parasitoid interaction strength.

Many organisms are experiencing changing daily light regimes due to latitudinal range shifts driven by climate change and increased artificial light at night (ALAN). Activity patterns are often driven by light cycles, which will have important consequences for species interactions. We tested whether longer photoperiods lead to higher parasitism rates by a day-active parasitoid on its host using a laboratory experiment in which we independently varied daylength and the presence of ALAN. We then tested whether reduced nighttime temperature tempers the effect of ALAN. We found that parasitism rate increased with daylength, with ALAN intensifying this effect only when the temperature was not reduced at night. The impact of ALAN was more pronounced under short daylength. Increased parasitoid activity was not compensated for by reduced life span, indicating that increased daylength leads to an increase in total parasitism effects on fitness. To test the significance of increased parasitism rate for population dynamics, we developed a host-parasitoid model. The results of the model predicted an increase in time-to-equilibrium with increased daylength and, crucially, a threshold daylength above which interactions are unstable, leading to local extinctions. Here we demonstrate that ALAN impact interacts with daylength and temperature by changing the interaction strength between a common day-active consumer species and its host in a predictable way. Our results further suggest that range expansion or ALAN-induced changes in light regimes experienced by insects and their natural enemies will result in unstable dynamics beyond key tipping points in daylength.

Latitudinal shifts in mangrove species worldwide: evidence from historical occurrence records

Consequences of global climate change on mangrove habitats are ambiguous owing to multifaceted factors. In this study, we examined historical occurrences of ten common mangrove species and quantified the rate of latitudinal shift as a possible response to climate change. The Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) was used to gather occurrence of mangrove species. We found that nine of ten species have been shifting poleward since the 1950s. Overall mean latitudinal shift rates of mangrove species were significantly higher in Australia than in North America (1.7 and 1.3 latitude degrees per decade, respectively). In Australia, mean temperature and precipitation of localities decreased as mangrove species shifted towards drier regions at higher latitudes. However, in North America and West Africa, mean temperature of localities seems relatively stable, whereas precipitation slightly decreased. We provide new quantitative information on shifts in occurrence of common mangrove species worldwide under a changing climate. We confirm the poleward movement of mangrove species over the past 70 years and suggest that local mean temperature and precipitation can act as key drivers of mangrove range shifts. We also advise that poleward latitudinal shifts in mangrove species should be taken into account when establishing new nature reserves.