Unravelling potential northward migration pathways for tree species under climate change

Abstract

AbstractAimClimate‐induced range expansion ultimately implies recruitment at sites that were previously unoccupied by a species (i.e. colonization events). Using evidence on abiotic conditions and biotic interactions at these migration sites, we aimed to identify migration pathways from northern temperate to boreal forests for species showing northward range expansion.LocationQuebec, Canada.TaxonTrees of northern temperate/boreal forests.MethodsUsing past (1970–1977) and recently updated (2003–2015) forest inventories across 761,100 km2, we first quantified latitudinal shifts for saplings of eight tree species and investigated colonization events at migration sites. We used field evidence and a consensus modelling approach to determine environmental suitability and identify edaphic, climatic and disturbance conditions, as well as species co‐occurrence patterns, characterizing recent colonization events. The results were interpreted in relation to novel species associations facilitating species migration in unsuitable landscapes.ResultsAll species showed northward latitudinal shifts driven by increased recruitment and colonization northward. Colonization events occurred largely at historically unsuitable sites. Migration sites showed a shift towards humus types characteristic of the boreal forest and not typically found in the core range of most temperate species. Climatic conditions at migration sites were initially colder than at occupied sites, but warming suggests recent climatic suitability. A decrease in conifer basal area at migration sites following disturbances reduced priority effects that possibly constrained deciduous species establishment. Co‐occurrence patterns pointed to deciduous species tolerant of boreal edaphic conditions, leading the way for other temperate species.Main conclusionsTemperate tree species can recruit into sites typical of boreal forests, even under environmentally challenging conditions. Warming and disturbances open up the way for some novel species associations that in turn have the potential to facilitate the recruitment of temperate species into the boreal forest, revealing migration pathways.