Late Winter Season Research Articles

Assessment of Water Productivity of Soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merrill] based Cropping Systems under Vertisols in Malwa Plateau of Madhya Pradesh, India

Background: In soybean growing areas, the agro-climatic conditions of mansoon season favours more to grow only soybean during kharif season even in assured irrigation water supply circumstances. But there is a magnificent opportunity to put back wheat during rabi season by adopting the diversification towards other crops which are having higher water productivity. Methods: A field trial was conducted during rainy, winter and late winter seasons of the year 2015-16 and 2016-17 at the research farm of Krishi Vigyan Kendra, Dhar, M.P. to assess of water productivity of soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merrill] based cropping systems under Vertisols in Malwa Plateau of Madhya Pradesh, India. In 16 cropping sequences, soybean was sequenced with feasible winter crops viz. wheat, chick pea, garlic, onion, potato and garden pea with inclusion of garlic, onion in late winter and assessed in randomized block design with four replications. Result: The maximum soybean equivalent yield (17731 kg/ha), net monetary returns (₹ 362170/ha), profitability (4.0), consumptive use (150.20 cm/ha) of water and productivity of water (367.35 kg/ha/cm) was recorded in crop sequence T15 - soybean (JS 93-05) - potato (Kufri jyoti) - onion (AFLR) while the minimum soybean equivalent yield (4279 kg/ha), consumptive use of water (60.09 cm/ha), water productivity (115.17 kg/ha/cm) and profitability (2.81) was noted in existing crop sequence i.e. T3 - soybean (JS 95-60) - chickpea (JG-130) desi.

신규영농폐기물의 처리실태 및 발생량 추정 연구 - 충청북도 G군을 대상으로 -

This paper estimated the amount of new agricultural waste(the waste of Tyvex and Layer thermal screen) and studied the reality of disposing Bale silage films. To study the reality of the disposal, survey was performed against farmers. In addition, the amount of agricultural waste was estimated based on the interviews against farmers and local government officers. It was found that the waste of Tyvex and Layer thermal screen were collected through a public collection site during late fall and early winter season. However, the public collection site is designated as a temporary place where only the legally-defined agricultural wastes can be collected and recycled. The waste of Tyvex and Layer thermal screen might be remained in the public collection site without being picked up. Bale silage films are also abandoned throughout a year into a public collection site. Bale silage film should be recycled from the public collection site because it is designated as EPR recycle-mandatory item. But waste haulers barely pick up the Bale silage film waste from the public collection site due to low profitability. It was analyzed the estimated amount of agricultural waste, 56.6 ton of the Tyvex waste, 283.6 ton of the Layer thermal screen waste and 175.5 ton of the Bale silage film waste per annum.

Curd quality of late-season cauliflower varieties in Nepal’s mid-hill region

Due to higher temperatures in Nepal’s mid-hill region, postharvest quality of cauliflower faces significant challenges during the late winter season. To address this issue, a field experiment was conducted to evaluate the curd quality of eleven late-season cauliflower varieties. The experiment was set up in a Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD), with nine hybrid varieties (Freedom, Titan, Ravella, Artica, Bishop, Casper, Indam 9803, NS 106, and Snow Mystique) and two open pollinated varieties (Amazing and Snowball 16). The experiment was carried out over four replications from November 2016 to March 2018. Snowball 16 had the highest TSS value of 5.5 oBrix and pH of 6.5 when compared to other varieties. Snow Mystique had the highest vitamin C content of 48.5 mg/100 g, followed by Amazing and Snowball 16, compared to other varieties. At three, six, and nine days after harvesting, physiological weight loss was 4.0 percent and 8.0 percent in Bishop, and 13.3 percent in Artica, respectively. Snowball 16 received a significantly higher score of 8.5 tasty curds, followed by Amazing. Titan and Artica produced curds with the best appearance and compactness when compared to other varieties. Artica and Titan produced significantly more fresh curds than other varieties. Based on the taste and chemical parameters of the curds for the late winter season in Nepal’s Mid-hill region, it was determined that Amazing was the best OP variety, while Artica, Titan, and Bishop were more preferable hybrid varieties.

Eastern Black Rail (Laterallus jamaicensis jamaicensis) Home Range and Habitat Use in Late Winter and Early Breeding Season in Coastal Texas, USA

Habitat use by the Eastern Black Rail (Laterallus jamaicensis jamaicensis) in coastal Texas, USA is poorly understood. To provide data for effective management of the subspecies in Texas, home range size was estimated and habitat use was examined. From February-May of 2017 and 2018, regular locations of 13 radio-transmitted Eastern Black Rails were obtained at San Bernard National Wildlife Refuge, Texas. The mean fixed kernel home range for birds with ≥ 24 relocations was 2.3 ha, with a mean core area of 0.43 ha. Average 95% MCP home range was 0.98 ha with a mean core area of 0.12 ha. During radio tracking, an Eastern Black Rail nest was found on 19 March 2018, the earliest on record for the state. Birds used the Salt and Brackish High Tidal Marsh, Salty Prairie, and Baccharis (Baccharis spp.) Shrubland, and avoided Salt and Brackish Low Tidal Marsh. Home ranges contained a gently sloping elevation gradient suggesting the importance of on-foot access to higher ground. Protection and restoration of Salty Prairie, and Salt and Brackish High Tidal Marsh is recommended for maintaining Eastern Black Rail populations in coastal Texas.

Post-Thaw Quality of Beetal Goat Sperm Cryopreserved During Late Summer and Winter Seasons

Post-Thaw Quality of Beetal Goat Sperm Cryopreserved During Late Summer and Winter Seasons

Comparative Studies of Soybean (Glycine max L.) based Cropping Systems for Sustainable Production in Malwa Plateau of Central India

Background: Large area under soybean is spread over Central India. Due to short growing season, soybean fits well in a number of cropping systems and is well suited for intercropping with a number of crops resulting in better land equivalent ratio and helps in the risk aversion due to climatic uncertainties in rainfed conditions. It has increased more cropping intensity and B:C ratio (profitability). All domestic demands of the farmers pertaining to agricultural produce could not be possible to fulfill by growing crops in existing soybean-wheat/gram cropping systems. Methods: A field trial was conducted during rainy, winter and late winter seasons of the year 2015-16 and 2016-17 at the research farm of Krishi Vigyan Kendra, Dhar, M.P. to assess comparative studies of soybean (Glycine max L.) based cropping systems for sustainable production in Malwa Plateau of Central India. There were altogether16 treatments comprising of soybean sequenced with wheat, chick pea, garlic, onion, potato and garden pea with inclusion of garlic, onion in late winter and assessed in randomized block design with four replications. Result: Soybean (JS 93-05) - potato (Kufri jyoti) - onion (AFLR) cropping sequence recorded the highest system productivity 177.31 q/ha) in terms of soybean equivalent yield with greater production efficiency (56.55 kg/ha/day), land use efficiency (85.89%) and sustainable yield index (0.91) while existing crop sequence viz. T3- soybean (JS 95-60) - chickpea (JG-130) recorded minimum soybean equivalent yield (42.79 q/ha) with production efficiency (22.93 kg/ha/day), use efficiency of land (56.30%) and sustainable yield index (0.50).

Spatial variability in the community structure of microphytoplankton along the southeastern Arabian sea during an unusually warm winter monsoon season

The microphytoplankton community structure and composition were investigated along the South Eastern Arabian Sea (SEAS) during the late winter monsoon season (January 2020). A total of 186 species of phytoplankton were identified, with cyanobacteria Trichodesmium erythraeum (72%) being the most dominant, followed by diatoms (11%) and dinoflagellates (2.7%). Major blooms of T. erythraeum were observed towards the southern region of SEAS characterised by high SST (28.75 ± 0.7 °C), high surface salinity (34.6 ± 1.2 psu) and low wind speed (∼3.6 m s−1). The T. erythraeum bloom areas generally observed high nitrate and low silicate and phosphate concentrations with high chlorophyll a concentration (8.96 ± 2.92 mg m−3). In non-bloom regions, centric diatoms like Chaetoceros spp., Bacteriastrum spp. and Leptocylindrus sp. dominated. The abundance of diatoms observed a decreasing trend towards the southern extend of SEAS. The remote sensing data derived for the area observed sea surface temperatures are about 1.0 °C higher than the climatological mean of January. The higher temperatures (29 °C–32 °C) are clearly visible in the Indian coastal region from Kanyakumari to the Gujarat coast, suggesting unusual warming in the eastern coast of the Arabian Sea in January 2020. This warming which was more prominent towards the southern extend of SEAS, might have augmented the proliferation of T. erythraeum along the surface waters of SEAS.

Seasonal trends of the polyp expansion and nutritional condition of Alcyonium acaule (Octocorallia, Alcyonacea).

The ecological physiology of anthozoans, as well as their resistance to stressors, are strongly influenced by environmental factors and the availability of resources. The energy budget of anthozoans can vary seasonally in order to find an equilibrium between the available resources and respiration, polyp activity, growth, and reproduction processes. The variation in the biochemical composition of the animal tissues in these organisms results from a combination of the productivity processes of the water column coupled with the reproductive effort and potential starvation periods of the anthozoans. Here, the seasonal variation in the polyp activity of a slow-growing passive suspension feeder, the octocoral Alcyonium acaule, as well as their carbohydrate, protein and lipid contents, was investigated in a warm temperate environment using in-situ observations and biochemical analyses. Polyp activity exhibited a significant variability that was moderately dependent on season, while an aestivation phenomenon in A. acaule (i.e., a resting period in which the anthozoan is not capable of any polyp activity) during the warmer months is clearly observed. Carbohydrate concentrations in the coral species showed a significant increase in the late winter and spring seasons, and the lipid content increased during the spring. A higher abundance of lipids and carbohydrates coincided with a higher primary productivity in the water column, as well as with the octocoral reproduction period. In late autumn, there was a depletion of these biomolecules, with protein levels exhibiting great variability across sampling times. Complex alterations driven by climate change could affect the energy fluxes that depend on the dead or alive particles that are intercepted by marine animal forests. The obtained findings show a food shortage in late summer and autumn of the benthic suspension feeder A. acaule through the integrative descriptors of the ecophysiology of these anthozoans. This research contributes to the knowledge of energy storage capabilities in benthic suspension feeders in general, highlighting the importance of understanding the limits of resistance to starvation periods through these indicators.

Damages to Himalayan White Pine (Pinus wallichiana) by Asiatic Black Bear (Ursus thibetanus) in Kaghan Valley, Pakistan

Tree damage is one of the destructive behaviors of the Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus G. (Baron) Cuvier, 1823), and this type of damage causes great economic loss to the forest. A survey about Himalayan white pine (Pinus wallichiana (A. B) Jacks, 1836) damages was conducted at Kaghan Valley, District Mansehra, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Field surveys were carried out within five major sites of Kaghan Valley, including Manshi reserve forest, Kamal Bann reserve forest, Malkandi reserve forest, Noori Bichla reserve forest, and some Guzara forests. Line transects and diameter at breast height (DBH) methods were selected for data collection. Eighteen transects were placed in different sites of the valley. A total of (n = 201) affected trees were observed from eighteen transects, along with a total population of 1081 trees with the encounter rate (ER: 0.657) and the mean DBH is x¯ = 71.97 cm. Among total damages, the most severe (n = 39: 19.4%) were fully damaged with a greater encounter rate. Bark stripping was made during the late winter season and used as foodstuff when natural food is limited in the area. In severe cases, the bear-stripped bark encircles from the entire tree trunk, which results in the drying of trees and, finally, falls. Among all five sites, Manshi reserve forest was greatly affected, where the highest number (n = 76) of tree damage, and (n = 21) the entire diameter of trunks were damaged. People of the study area claimed that the black bear causes great forest damage, as well as crop destruction that leads to high economic loss.

Revisiting Forest Effects on Winter Air Temperature and Wind Speed—New Open Data and Transfer Functions

The diurnal cycle of both air temperature and wind speed is characterized by considerable differences, when comparing open site conditions to forests. In the course of this article, a new two-hourly, open-source dataset, covering a high spatial and temporal variability, is presented and analyzed. It contains air temperature measurements (128 station pairs (open/forest); six winter seasons; six study sites), wind speed measurements (64 station pairs; three winter seasons, four study sites) and related metadata in central Europe. Daily cycles of air temperature and wind speed, as well as further dependencies of the effective Leaf Area Index (effective LAI), the exposure in the context of forest effects, and the distance to the forest edge, are illustrated in this paper. The forest effects on air temperature can be seen particularly with increasing canopy density, in southern exposures, and in the late winter season, while wind speed depends on multiple factors such as effective LAI or the distance to the forest edge. New transfer functions, developed using linear and non-linear regression analysis, in a leave-one-out cross-validation, improve certain efficiency criteria (NSME; r2; RMSE; MAE) compared to existing transfer functions. The dataset enables multiple purposes and capabilities due to its diversity and sample size.

Growth and Yield of Late Season Cauliflower (Brassica oleracea var. botrytis L.) Varieties in Mid-hill Region of Nepal

Background: Cauliflower production during the late winter season has major problems including the requirement of long duration for its maturity, lower yield and poor postharvest quality, especially in the mid-hill region of Nepal. A field experiment was conducted to access the growth, crop maturity and yield of late-season cauliflower varieties at Puranchaur, Kaski in the mid-hill region of Nepal.Methods: The experiment was arranged in a randomized complete block design (RCBD) with toal eleven late-season cauliflower varieties in which nine were hybrid varieties viz. Freedom, Titan, Ravella, Artica, Bishop, Casper, Indam 9803, NS 106 and Snow Mystique while two were open pollinated varieties viz. Amazing and Snowball 16. The experiment was conducted from November 2016 to March 2017 with four replications.Result: Significantly shorter period for final curd initiation of 76 days was recorded in NS 106 and Indam 9803 which was statistically similar with Amazing. Significantly shorter period for final curd maturation of 90 days was recorded in Amazing which was statistically similar to Bishop and NS 106. Similarly, the highest curd yield of 50 mt/ha was produced by Bishop at 91 days after transplanting (DAT) while the lowest crud yield of 19 mt/ha was recorded in Snowball 16 at 113 DAT. Finally, it was concluded that Bishop found the best hybrid variety for higher curd yield and short duration for maturation while Amazing performed higher yield than Snowball 16 and early maturing variety in the mid-hill region of Nepal.

Assessing the phytoplankton community and diversity in relation to physico-chemical parameters in a tropical reservoir of the River Ganga basin, India

Phytoplankton species composition and diversity and its relation to physico-chemical parameters were studied in Jargo Reservoir located on River Jargo, a tributary of River Ganga basin, India. A total of 137 phytoplankton species belonging to 8 divisions were recorded indicating rich phytoplankton diversity in the North Indian reservoir. Bacillariophyta contributed the highest number of species followed by Chlorophyta. Filamentous algae such as Geitlerinema sp., Pseudoanabaena sp., Oscillatoria sp. and Phormidium sp. were highly abundant. The contribution of the top ten species ranged between 63% and 98% of total phytoplankton density. PCA analysis of physico-chemical revealed six principal components (HCO3, TDS, BOD, DOM, air temperature and pH) which significantly affected the succession of phytoplankton in Jargo Reservoir. The CCA analysis of phytoplankton species and physico-chemical parameters revealed that Ochrophyta and Miozoa were highly influenced by high CO2 and PO4. Higher phytoplankton diversity and species richness were observed during the late winter season and rainy season, respectively. Our investigation recommends that fish production in the reservoir could be enhanced by stocking with fingerlings of silver carp, which has the potential to utilise the unconsumed population of abundant Myxophyta.

Growth status, curd yield and crop duration of late season cauliflower varieties

Cauliflower is an important winter season vegetable crop having year-round demand in Nepal. Due to longer crop duration in late winter season, there was a production of poor-quality curds and lower yield faced by the farmers in Terai region of Nepal. An experiment was conducted to identify the short duration late season varieties at Rampur, Chitwan Nepal during November 2016 to March, 2017. These varieties were Freedom, Titan, Ravella, Amazing, Artica, Bishop, Casper, Indam 9803 and NS 106 (introduced from USA, Europe and India), and Snow Mystique and Snowball 16 (introduced from Japan). The experiment was laid out in Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) with four replications. The highest plant height (71.9 cm) and canopy diameter (74.5 cm) at last harvest of cauliflower was mostly produced by Titan followed by NS 106, Snow Mystique, Bishop and Indam 9803. Similarly, significantly shorter period for final curd initiation of 65 days after transplanting was observed in Freedom and shorter period for final curd maturation of 77 days after transplanting was also recorded in Freedom than other varieties. Significantly, higher curd yield of 54.8 t/ha was produced by Bishop than other varieties. In conclusion, Bishop was the best hybrid variety while other suitable varieties were NS 106, Titan, Artica and Snow Mystique for better growth and higher curd yield in Chitwan condition. Similarly, Freedom was identified as short duration varieties which can minimize the negative effects in late winter season due to higher temperature.

Some Agronomical Practices for Improving Growth ,Yield and Quality of Pea Growing at Late Seasons. بعض الممارسات الزراعیة لتحسین النمو والمحصول والجودة للبسلة المنزرعة فی العروات المتأخرة

This work was carried out at the Experimental Farm of El-Baramoon Research Station, Horticulture Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, during the late winter season of 2018 and 2019 to study the effect of two sowing dates (20th January and 20th February), foliar applications, i.e., brassinolide (5 and10 mg/l), mixture of growth regulator (0.5 and 1cm/l), dry yeast extract (5 and 10gm/l) potassium nitrate (1 and 2 gm/l) and potassium silicate (2.5 and 5gm/l) in addition to vernalization practice and their interactions on growth, yield and its components characteristics of pea cv. Master- B.The obtained results revealed that, the first sowing date induced a higher growth values , yield and its components and chemical composition of seeds compared with the second sowing date. Spraying brassinolide at 10 mg/l gave the highest growth, yield and chemical components of pea plants, followed by potassium nitrate at 2gm/l, growth regulators mixture at 1cm/l and yeast extract at 10gm/l. Sowing pea seeds in 20th January and spraying with brassinolide at 10 mg/l introduced the best interaction with respect to growth, yield components and chemical composition of seeds. From the obtained results it could be recommended that sowing pea in 20th January and spraying with brassinolide (10 mg/l) and/or potassium nitrate at 2gm/l, and/or growth regulators mixture at 1cm/l and/or yeast extract at 10 gm/l improved growth, yield and chemical composition of pea growing at late season conditions .

Robustness and drivers of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical atmospheric circulation response to a CO$$_2$$-induced warming in CNRM-CM6-1

Understanding the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation response to CO$$_2$$ forcing is challenging and complex due to the strong internal variability and the multiple potential CO$$_2$$-induced effects. While a significant poleward shift of the jet is projected in summer, changes remain uncertain in winter. In this study, we investigate the boreal winter extratropical jet response to an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO$$_2$$ in the CMIP6-generation global climate model CNRM-CM6-1. First, we show that the model performs better than the former generation CNRM-CM5 model in representing the atmospheric dynamics in the northern extratropics. Then, when atmospheric CO$$_2$$ is quadrupled, CNRM-CM6-1 exhibits a strengthening and upward shift of the jet. A poleward shift is identified and robust in the Pacific in boreal winter. In the Atlantic, the jet response rather exhibits a squeezing, especially at the eastern part of the basin. It is found that changes are more robust across the Northern Hemisphere in early-winter than in late-winter season. Finally, the circulation response is broken down into individual contributions of various drivers. The uniform global mean component of the SST warming is found to explain most of the total atmospheric response to a quadrupling of CO$$_2$$, with relatively smaller contributions from faster CO$$_2$$ effects, the SST pattern change and the Arctic sea ice decline. The cloud radiative effect contribution is also assessed and found to be rather weak in the CNRM-CM6-1 model. This study highlights that long experiments are required to isolate the wintertime circulation response from the internal variability, and that idealized experimental setups are helpful to disentangle the physical drivers.

Aerosol from Biomass Combustion in Northern Europe: Influence of Meteorological Conditions and Air Mass History

Alkali-containing submicron particles were measured continuously during three months, including late winter and spring seasons in Gothenburg, Sweden. The overall aims were to characterize the ambient concentrations of combustion-related aerosol particles and to address the importance of local emissions and long-range transport for atmospheric concentrations in the urban background environment. K and Na concentrations in the particulate matter PM1 size range were measured by an Alkali aerosol mass spectrometer (Alkali-AMS) and a cluster analysis was conducted. Local meteorological conditions and trace gas and PM concentrations were also obtained for a nearby location. In addition, back trajectory analyses and chemical transport model (CTM) simulations were included for the evaluation. The Alkali-AMS cluster analysis indicated three major clusters: (1) biomass burning origin, (2) mixture of other combustion sources, and (3) marine origin. Low temperatures and low wind speed conditions correlated with high concentrations of K-containing particles, mainly owing to local and regional emissions from residential biomass combustion; transport of air masses from continental Europe also contribute to Cluster 1. The CTM results indicate that open biomass burning in the eastern parts of Europe may have contributed substantially to high PM2.5 concentrations (and to Cluster 1) during an episode in late March. According to the CTM results, the mixed cluster (2) is likely to include particles emitted from different source types and no single geographical source region seems to dominate for this cluster. The back trajectory analysis and meteorological conditions indicated that the marine origin cluster was correlated with westerly winds and high wind speed; this cluster had high concentrations of Na-containing particles, as expected for sea salt particles.

Different prediction skill for the East Asian winter monsoon in the early and late winter season

The prediction skill for the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) in early (November–December, ND) and late winter (January–February, JF) is investigated based on the NCEP’s Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), at different lead months. Results show that the prediction skill of ND-EAWM is higher than that of JF-EAWM. ND-EAWM can be reasonably reproduced by CFSv2 with initial conditions from the previous May to November, whereas with initial conditions from the previous July to January it has little forecasting skill for predicting JF-EAWM. The difference in the impacts of ENSO between early and late winter may influence the ENSO–EAWM relationship and cause the subseasonal change. As the seasonality of the ENSO cycle changes from early winter to late winter, the anomalous tropical east–west Walker circulation system shifts from a double-cell to a single-cell regime. The double-cell regime in early winter is usually accompanied by intense tropical convection localized in the Maritime Continent. ENSO-related anomalous convection strongly influences the EAWM through a systematic wave train pattern. However, ENSO cannot easily influence the EAWM in late winter through this process when the turnabout of ENSO commences in late winter. CFSv2 can successfully reproduce this physical process of ENSO affecting the EAWM in early winter. It is also found that the year-to-year increment approach may enhance the skill of CFSv2 in predicting the EAWM in late winter.

Detection of Trispot Darter (Percidae: Etheostoma trisella) Using Empirical Sampling and Environmental DNA (eDNA)

Etheostoma trisella (Trispot Darter), previously thought extirpated in Alabama, was recently rediscovered. Although robust sampling was conducted in the areas surrounding the newly discovered population, more sampling is needed to document previously unknown populations. We took empirical sampling and water samples for eDNA analysis at 30 sites throughout the potential range of Trispot Darter in the Coosa River drainage, AL. We conducted sampling during late winter breeding season, when adults migrate to small headwater streams to spawn, at sites chosen from known breeding sites in St. Clair County through tributaries to Weis Reservoir in Cherokee County. Positive detection occurred at 4/30 (1.3%) sites. Trispot Darter was not detected using empirical sampling.

Diversity and distribution of the intertidal Mollusca of the State of Kuwait, Arabian Gulf

A total of 271 species of Mollusca from 5 classes, 26 orders, and 87 families were identified in the intertidal macrofauna survey along Kuwaiti coastal areas. A total of 36 sites along Kuwait’s mainland and island areas were sampled quantitatively and qualitatively during late autumn and winter season from December 2013 to December 2015. Of the 271 species, 211 were collected alive; the Gastropoda (104 species) ranked first, followed by the Bivalvia with 100; three species were recorded for the Polyplacophora, and two each for the Scaphopoda, and Cephalopoda. As many as 61 species, notably the micro-molluscs, are probably new records for Kuwait and many of may also be new to science.The most frequently occurring species included Brachidontes pharaonis, Ergalatax junionae, Planaxis savignyi, Leiosolenus tripartitus and Pinctada radiata. Mollusca diversity was higher in rocky-sandy areas than intertidal mudflats. The highest species richness was found in the area of south Kuwait Bay and coastal area around Failaka Island.Comparisons with previous surveys dating back to 1984 indicated that the dominant species composition was relatively unchanged. There are indications of the adverse affects of industrial impacts on the intertidal fauna, including eutrophication and increased turbidity. However, differences in methodology made any quantitative assessment impossible.Wider comparisons with the molluscan faunas of the Arabian Gulf and Arabian region suggest that the fauna of Kuwait has some unique elements not found elsewhere. Taxonomic problems surrounding some of the dominant elements such as the number of species of oysters (Ostreiidae) and mud snails (Cerithiidae) were recognised. The lack of taxonomic congruence between studies and the incomplete taxonomy of the molluscs in general made such comparisons inconclusive but did highlight the need for a revised identification guide to the Mollusca of the Arabian Gulf and Arabian Sea.

144 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Daily Emergency Department Visits Utilizing Facebook's Prophet Method

Emergency department (ED) boarding and crowding have significant implications for patient care. The capability of being able to model ED volumes to optimize staff and hospital resource allocation may lead to significant positive operational and patient care outcomes. The number of daily visits in 24 hours can often be challenging to predict, but over the last few decades, several studies have attempted to develop and deploy several forecasting models including exponential smoothing, and autoregressive integrated moving average models with varying levels of success. The analysis and identification of patterns and trends in large scale data are vital in other industries, such as social media, where several innovative methodologies have been employed to assess pattern recognition and trends. Facebook® uses a novel Bayesian forecasting model known as Prophet to decompose time series factors identifying patterns. This study leveraged this innovative methodology to identify patterns of ED daily visits with the hope of predicting future number of daily ED visits. Data were collected from a single urban community-based hospital in the New York Metropolitan area from January 2016 to December 2018. A time series analysis and decomposition were performed on daily visits using Prophet, which is an open source forecasting time series model based on an additive model where non-linear trends are fit with yearly, weekly, and daily seasonality as well as holiday effects. The model trends were revealed and used for predicting daily ED visits for the first two weeks of January 2019. The Facebook Prophet method identified two distinct seasonal patterns. The resulting dataframe contained fourteen days of forecasted data with corresponding 95% confidence intervals. The model appears to provide insight into the general trend and seasonality in the time series data. Not surprisingly, the busiest day of the week is a Monday and the busiest time of the year is during the late winter season, such as February and March. A quick comparison with the actual visits from the first two weeks in 2019 shows that its predictions are relatively reasonable. The result of our study suggests that the Facebook Prophet model can be used to provide reasonably accurate forecasts and predictions in daily ED visits. However, the limitation was that the data was from a single site with only three years of data. Building on this single site study, future multi-site prospective longitudinal work can assess if such a methodological approach can provide forecasting information useful for departmental administration as well as validation in other hospital sites.View Large Image Figure ViewerDownload Hi-res image Download (PPT)