Large-scale Research Programs Research Articles

Considerations for reporting variants in novel candidate genes identified during clinical genomic testing.

Since the first novel gene discovery for a Mendelian condition was made via exome sequencing (ES), the rapid increase in the number of genes known to underlie Mendelian conditions coupled with the adoption of exome (and more recently, genome) sequencing by diagnostic testing labs has changed the landscape of genomic testing for rare disease. Specifically, many individuals suspected to have a Mendelian condition are now routinely offered clinical ES. This commonly results in a precise genetic diagnosis but frequently overlooks the identification of novel candidate genes. Such candidates are also less likely to be identified in the absence of large-scale gene discovery research programs. Accordingly, clinical laboratories have both the opportunity, and some might argue a responsibility, to contribute to novel gene discovery which should in turn increase the diagnostic yield for many conditions. However, clinical diagnostic laboratories must necessarily balance priorities for throughput, turnaround time, cost efficiency, clinician preferences, and regulatory constraints, and often do not have the infrastructure or resources to effectively participate in either clinical translational or basic genome science research efforts. For these and other reasons, many laboratories have historically refrained from broadly sharing potentially pathogenic variants in novel genes via networks like Matchmaker Exchange, much less reporting such results to ordering providers. Efforts to report such results are further complicated by a lack of guidelines for clinical reporting and interpretation of variants in novel candidate genes. Nevertheless, there are myriad benefits for many stakeholders, including patients/families, clinicians, researchers, if clinical laboratories systematically and routinely identify, share, and report novel candidate genes. To facilitate this change in practice, we developed criteria for triaging, sharing, and reporting novel candidate genes that are most likely to be promptly validated as underlying a Mendelian condition and translated to use in clinical settings.

Considerations for reporting variants in novel candidate genes identified during clinical genomic testing

Since the first novel gene discovery for a Mendelian condition was made via exome sequencing, the rapid increase in the number of genes known to underlie Mendelian conditions coupled with the adoption of exome (and more recently, genome) sequencing by diagnostic testing labs has changed the landscape of genomic testing for rare diseases. Specifically, many individuals suspected to have a Mendelian condition are now routinely offered clinical ES. This commonly results in a precise genetic diagnosis but frequently overlooks the identification of novel candidate genes. Such candidates are also less likely to be identified in the absence of large-scale gene discovery research programs. Accordingly, clinical laboratories have both the opportunity, and some might argue a responsibility, to contribute to novel gene discovery, which should, in turn, increase the diagnostic yield for many conditions. However, clinical diagnostic laboratories must necessarily balance priorities for throughput, turnaround time, cost efficiency, clinician preferences, and regulatory constraints and often do not have the infrastructure or resources to effectively participate in either clinical translational or basic genome science research efforts. For these and other reasons, many laboratories have historically refrained from broadly sharing potentially pathogenic variants in novel genes via networks such as Matchmaker Exchange, much less reporting such results to ordering providers. Efforts to report such results are further complicated by a lack of guidelines for clinical reporting and interpretation of variants in novel candidate genes. Nevertheless, there are myriad benefits for many stakeholders, including patients/families, clinicians, and researchers, if clinical laboratories systematically and routinely identify, share, and report novel candidate genes. To facilitate this change in practice, we developed criteria for triaging, sharing, and reporting novel candidate genes that are most likely to be promptly validated as underlying a Mendelian condition and translated to use in clinical settings.

The socioecological benefits and consequences of oil palm cultivation in its native range: The Sustainable Oil Palm in West Africa (SOPWA) Project

Agriculture is expanding rapidly across the tropics. While cultivation can boost socioeconomic conditions and food security, it also threatens native ecosystems. Oil palm (Elaeis guineensis), which is grown pantropically, is the most productive vegetable oil crop worldwide. The impacts of oil palm cultivation have been studied extensively in Southeast Asia and – to a lesser extent – in Latin America but, in comparison, very little is known about its impacts in Africa: oil palm's native range, and where cultivation is expanding rapidly. In this paper, we introduce a large-scale research programme – the Sustainable Oil Palm in West Africa (SOPWA) Project – that is evaluating the relative ecological impacts of oil palm cultivation under traditional (i.e., by local people) and industrial (i.e., by a large-scale corporation) management in Liberia. Our paper is twofold in focus. First, we use systematic mapping to appraise the literature on oil palm research in an African context, assessing the geographic and disciplinary focus of existing research. We found 757 publications occurring in 36 African countries. Studies tended to focus on the impacts of palm oil consumption on human health and wellbeing. We found no research that has evaluated the whole-ecosystem (i.e., multiple taxa and ecosystem functions) impacts of oil palm cultivation in Africa, a knowledge gap which the SOPWA Project directly addresses. Second, we describe the SOPWA Project's study design and—using canopy cover, ground vegetation cover, and soil temperature data as a case study—demonstrate its utility for assessing differences between areas of rainforest and oil palm agriculture. We outline the socioecological data collected by the SOPWA Project to date and describe the potential for future research, to encourage new collaborations and additional similar projects of its kind in West Africa. Increased research in Africa is needed urgently to understand the combined ecological and sociocultural impacts of oil palm and other agriculture in this unique region. This will help to ensure long-term sustainability of the oil palm industry—and, indeed, all tropical agricultural activity—in Africa.

How cultural diversity affects communication and collaboration within global high-performance project teams?

Cultural dimensions and social behavior play a critical role in the success of a project team. Project managers must be aware of these factors and create an environment that fosters effective collaboration and trust. Tuckman’s model for group development consists of five stages: forming, storming, norming, performing, and adjourning. A lack of trust among team members can prevent a team from becoming a high-performance team. Research has shown a correlation between high-performance teams and GLOBE’s cultural dimensions. GLOBE, short for "Global Leadership and Organizational Behavior Effectiveness," is a large-scale research program that explores cultural variations in leadership and organizational behavior. The cultural context and its impact on team dynamics can help organizations create more effective and high-performing teams. Trust is a key component of team performance and can lead to improved communication, collaboration, and problem-solving. In the oil and gas sector, multidisciplinary projects often involve complex engineering and technical challenges, so it is essential to have a team that is skilled, experienced, and focused on project success. The goal of this research is to investigate the influence of cultural dimensions and social behavior on project team success and to explore the role of trust in fostering effective collaboration and creating a high-performance team. The research approach employed in this study was secondary data analysis, utilizing existing data to address the research questions.This study found that cultural dimensions and social behavior significantly influence project team success. Trust plays a key role, and Tuckman’s model highlights its importance for high-performance teams. Overall, the results of this study provide insights and guidance for organizations to navigate cultural diversity, build trust, and enhance team performance. Implementing these findings can lead to improved project outcomes, stronger collaboration, and increased organizational effectiveness in various industries and sectors. However, a systematic review of recent literature on cultural diversity and global team performance is lacking, which highlights the need for further research in this area.

Underdiagnosis and misclassification of COPD in Sweden – A Nordic Epilung study

IntroductionThe prevalence of COPD tends to level off in populations with decreasing prevalence of smoking but the extent of underdiagnosis in such populations needs further investigation. AimTo investigate underdiagnosis and misclassification of COPD with a focus on socio-economy, lifestyle determinants and healthcare utilization. MethodThe 1839 participants were selected from two ongoing large-scale epidemiological research programs: The Obstructive Lung Disease in Northern Sweden Studies and the West Sweden Asthma Study. COPDGOLD was defined according to the fixed post-bronchodilator spirometric criteria FEV1/FVC<0.70 in combination with respiratory symptoms. ResultsAmong the 128 participants who fulfilled the criteria for COPDGOLD, the underdiagnosis was 83.6% (n = 107) of which 57.9% were men. The undiagnosed participants were younger, had higher FEV1% of predicted and less frequently a family history of bronchitis. One in four of the undiagnosed had utilized healthcare and had more frequently utilized healthcare due to a burden of respiratory symptoms than the general population without COPD. Underdiagnosis was not related to educational level. Misclassification of COPD was characterized by being a woman with low education, ever smoker, having respiratory symptoms and having a previous asthma diagnosis. ConclusionIn the high income country Sweden, the underdiagnosis of COPD was highly prevalent.Reduced underdiagnosis can contribute to risk factor modification, medical treatment and self-management strategies in early stages of the disease, which may prevent disease progression and improve the quality of life among those affected. Therefore, there is a need to increase the use of spirometry in primary care to improve the diagnostic accuracy.

Need for a Dedicated Ophthalmic Malignancy Clinico-Biological Biobank: The Nice Ocular MAlignancy (NOMA) Biobank

Ophthalmic malignancies include various rare neoplasms involving the conjunctiva, the uvea, or the periocular area. These tumors are characterized by their scarcity as well as their histological, and sometimes genetic, diversity. Uveal melanoma (UM) is the most common primary intraocular malignancy. UM raises three main challenges highlighting the specificity of ophthalmic malignancies. First, UM is a very rare malignancy with an estimated incidence of 6 cases per million inhabitants. Second, tissue biopsy is not routinely recommended due to the risk of extraocular dissemination. Third, UM is an aggressive cancer because it is estimated that about 50% of patients will experience metastatic spread without any curative treatment available at this stage. These challenges better explain the two main objectives in the creation of a dedicated UM biobank. First, collecting UM samples is essential due to tissue scarcity. Second, large-scale translational research programs based on stored human samples will help to better determine UM pathogenesis with the aim of identifying new biomarkers, allowing for early diagnosis and new targeted treatment modalities. Other periocular malignancies, such as conjunctival melanomas or orbital malignancies, also raise specific concerns. In this context, the number of biobanks worldwide dedicated to ocular malignancies is very limited. The aims of this article were (i) to describe the specific challenges raised by a dedicated ocular malignancy biobank, (ii) to report our experience in setting up such a biobank, and (iii) to discuss future perspectives in this field.

The community mental health team fidelity scale: A measure of program fidelity of social networks interventions for severe mental illness.

To develop, pilot, and implement a program fidelity measure for community mental health services providing OD and 'treatment as usual' (TAU) or standard NHS crisis and community care. Measure structure, content, and scoring were developed and refined through an iterative process of discussion between the research team and OD experts. Measure was piloted in the 6 OD and 6 TAU services participating in a large-scale research program. Initial data suggests that the Community Mental Health Team Fidelity Scale (COM-FIDE) is a potentially reliable and feasible measure of the fidelity of community mental health services and specific OD components of such services.

A framework for implementing Patient and Public Involvement in mental health research: The PATHWAY research programme benchmarked against NIHR standards.

Patient and Public Involvement (PPI) in research has become a key component recommended by research commissioners, grant award bodies and specified in government policies. Despite the increased call for PPI,few studies have demonstrated how to implement PPI within large-scale research studies. The aim of the current study was to provide a case example of the implementation of a patient advisory group in a large-scale mental health research programme (PATHWAY) and to benchmark this against UK standards. A PPI group was incorporated throughout the PATHWAY research programme, from grant development to dissemination. The group attended regular meetings and supported participant recruitment, evaluated patient-facing documents, supported the piloting of the research interventionand co-developed the dissemination and impact strategy. The implementation of PPI throughout the project was benchmarked against the UK standards for PPI. The inclusion of PPI in the PATHWAY project provided tangible changes to the research project (i.e., improving study documents, co-developing dissemination materials) but also proved to be a beneficial experience to PPI members through the development of new skills and the opportunity to provide a patient voice in research. We show how PPI was involved across seven study phases and provide examples of implementation of the six UK standards. The study did not include PPI in data analysis but met all the UK standards for PPI. Challenges regarding practical components (i.e., meeting frequency, language use), increasing diversityand PPI members' knowledge of research were highlighted as areas for further improvement. We provide a case example of how PPI can be implemented throughout a research lifecycle and we note the barriers faced and make suggestions for PPI in future implementation and research. PPI members were involved throughout the lifecycle of the research programme. The PPI lead was a co-author on the manuscript and contributed to report writing.

Государственно-частные партнерства в научно-технической сфере

The article discusses characteristic features of public-private partnerships (PPPs) as an instrument of public management of innovative development. It is noted that after the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, strategic PPPs play an increasingly important role in the implementation of large-scale research and technical programs and projects. They are characterized by a focus on solving long-term issues of innovative and socio-economic development, long implementation periods and significant scale, an emphasis on the development of critical technologies, complexity and expansion of functions of a public partner, as well as high risks of research and development. There are two types of such partnerships – institutional (Joint Technology Initiatives) and contractual. Both of these types are formed based on the European Technology Platforms, however, institutional partnerships involve formation of a legal entity, and contractual PPPs are formed based on agreements between the European Commission and industry associations. It is argued that a variety of forms and types of PPPs, in which public entities and corporations, research and educational institutions, and innovative small and medium-sized companies participate, can contribute to solving the priority tasks of Russia’s innovative development. To do this, first of all, it is necessary to amend the current legislation, which lacks norms regulating general principles and rules for the formation and functioning of PPPs in science and technology sectors. Russia’s regulations contain an extremely narrow definition of the purpose and objects of PPP agreements. The goals are not related to the public innovation policy, and the objects are represented by a closed list of 21 objects, which, with the exception of computer programs and databases, belong to technological complexes of real estate and transport infrastructure. According to the authors, adoption of such a legal act will contribute to implementation of the key national programs, projects and initiatives and boost innovation development of the country.

Long-term health after Severe Acute Malnutrition in children and adults- the role of the Pancreas (SAMPA): Protocol.

Background: Prenatal growth retardation may increase the risk of later chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including diabetes; however, long-term effects of wasting malnutrition in childhood or adulthood are less studied. Pancreatic exocrine and endocrine functions, both critical for nutrition and NCD aetiology, may not fully recover following malnutrition. However, the evidence and mechanistic information is piecemeal. We hypothesise that wasting malnutrition at any age has long-term detrimental effects on endocrine and exocrine pancreatic structure and function. Methods: The SAMPA international research programme will assess pancreatic structure and function in 3700 participants from ongoing observational nutrition cohorts, two adolescent and four adult, in Zambia, Tanzania, Philippines, and India. Pancreas size, structure, and calcification will be assessed by ultrasound and computed tomography (CT) scan; exocrine function by faecal elastase and serum lipase; and endocrine function by haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and blood glucose, insulin and C-peptide concentrations during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). In-depth hormonal analyses of incretins, glucagon, proinsulin and trypsinogen during OGTT and intravenous glucose tolerance tests will be done in subsets of adult participants. Pancreatic size and function outcomes will be compared between people with and without prior wasting malnutrition. Analyses will investigate effect modification by sex, current age, time since malnutrition, current body mass index and dietary patterns. Mathematical modelling of OGTT data will be used to estimate the relative contribution to glucose dysregulation of decreased insulin production, changes in insulin clearance and increased insulin resistance. Proinsulin/insulin ratio will be analysed in archived samples from the Tanzanian cohort using a nested case-control design to investigate whether abnormal values precede diabetes. Conclusions: SAMPA, a large-scale multi-centre research programme using data from people with or without prior wasting malnutrition to assess several aspects of pancreatic phenotype, will provide coherent evidence for future policies and programmes for malnutrition and diabetes.

Long-term health after Severe Acute Malnutrition in children and adults- the role of the Pancreas (SAMPA): Protocol

Background: Prenatal growth retardation may increase the risk of later chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including diabetes; however, long-term effects of wasting malnutrition in childhood or adulthood are less studied. Pancreatic exocrine and endocrine functions, both critical for nutrition and NCD aetiology, may not fully recover following malnutrition. However, the evidence and mechanistic information is piecemeal. We hypothesise that wasting malnutrition at any age has long-term detrimental effects on endocrine and exocrine pancreatic structure and function. Methods: The SAMPA international research programme will assess pancreatic structure and function in 3700 participants from ongoing observational nutrition cohorts, two adolescent and four adult, in Zambia, Tanzania, Philippines, and India. Pancreas size, structure, and calcification will be assessed by ultrasound and computed tomography (CT) scan; exocrine function by faecal elastase and serum lipase; and endocrine function by haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and blood glucose, insulin and C-peptide concentrations during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). In-depth hormonal analyses of incretins, glucagon, proinsulin and trypsinogen during OGTT and intravenous glucose tolerance tests will be done in subsets of adult participants. Pancreatic size and function outcomes will be compared between people with and without prior wasting malnutrition. Analyses will investigate effect modification by sex, current age, time since malnutrition, current body mass index and dietary patterns. Mathematical modelling of OGTT data will be used to estimate the relative contribution to glucose dysregulation of decreased insulin production, changes in insulin clearance and increased insulin resistance. Proinsulin/insulin ratio will be analysed in archived samples from the Tanzanian cohort using a nested case-control design to investigate whether abnormal values precede diabetes. Conclusions: SAMPA, a large-scale multi-centre research programme using data from people with or without prior wasting malnutrition to assess several aspects of pancreatic phenotype, will provide coherent evidence for future policies and programmes for malnutrition and diabetes.

Branding the Earth: Selling Earth system science in the United States, 1983-1988.

As part of its efforts to find new relevance in the early 1980s, NASA formed the Earth System Sciences Committee (ESSC) to develop a large-scale Earth science research program that would use satellites and computer modeling to study the planet as an integrated system with interconnections between the land, air, water, and biota. Called Earth system science (ESS), the project was conceived on the scale of the U.S. moon missions. Like the Apollo program, it would need enormous government funding to implement. Yet, the project was proposed just as government science funding was contracting. Conscious of the changing political economy of science, the ESSC attempted to build scientific, political, and public support for its project by using promotional techniques akin to the branding efforts more commonly identified in corporate marketing that were themselves changing in scope and importance in the 1980s. These techniques formed part of the ESSC's broader management strategy to promote ESS. The ESS brand was developed around the ideals of an interconnected 'Earth system', the significance of interdisciplinary research, and environmental concern. Though ESS failed to gain widespread traction, an unintended consequence of this branding was the communication and entrenchment of the concept of the 'Earth system'. Today, this concept provides crucial theoretical scaffolding that unifies interdisciplinary Earth science research, including climate change science.

Innovation in Large-Scale Research Programs: Elevating Research Participants to Governance Roles Through the All of Us Research Program Engagement Core.

Despite the successes of community-engaged research in advancing research relevance and health equity for diverse communities, the impact of this research has been limited to local and regional programs. Engaging diverse community voices in large-scale, national research programs represents a paradigm shift in biomedical research. Still, disconnects remain between research decision makers and the communities they serve, impeding richer, bidirectional engagement. An engagement core team was established within National Institutes of Health All of Us Research Program (AoURP) in 2018 to synthesize community-engaged research practices and establish infrastructure that operationalizes diverse research participant engagement. The authors integrated research participants as "participant partners" within the AoURP governance, an approach that is embedded into the engagement core's 3 aims: (1) integrate a diverse pool of participants into the program, (2) identify and meaningfully engage a cadre of diverse participants into program governance, and (3) assess the impact of such engagement on research. Participant partners are compensated as consultants at approximately $50/hour. As of August 2022, more than 515,000 individuals consented to participate in the AoURP, with more than 49% representing racial/ethnic minorities. The authors invited participants to self-nominate if interested in engaging in research working groups, decision making, and governance. Also, consortium partners nominated individuals on AoURP community advisory and/or participant advisory boards to serve as participant ambassadors. Ten individuals were selected as participant partners for the 2022-2025 term. Eight serve on the steering committee; of those, 4 serve on the executive committee; 2 more serve on the advisory panel. An additional 23 serve as participant ambassadors. The authors continue to increase the number of research participants serving as engaged partners in the program. Engagement approaches will be systematically evaluated with the goal of adoption by other large-scale research programs.

Digital artifacts reveal development and diffusion of climate research

Research for development organizations generate tremendous amount of accessible knowledge, but given their scale, time and resource constraints, the impact of outputs is not systematically analyzed. This is because traditional bibliometric analyses present limitations to synthesize accumulated knowledge and retrofitting indicators to historical outputs. To address these shortcomings, this study proposes an integrated, web-based approach to systematically analyze the production and diffusion of knowledge from large-scale research programs, using climate research of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) as a case study. Our analytical framework employs text mining, social network analysis and hyperlink analysis to an unstructured mass of publicly available digital artifacts such as institutional repositories, citation databases, and social media to uncover narratives, dynamics, and relationships. Findings show CIMMYT’s climate research is strongly incorporated into a holistic systems approach and that the institution is actively engaged in knowledge exchanges with key actors from the scientific, development and public policy communities. The proposed analytical framework establishes an effective approach for research for development organizations to leverage existing online data sources to assess the extent of their knowledge production, dissemination, and reach.

Overview of research on the digital economy: some typical studies in Vietnam

The digital economy has become the top concern of economic scientists around the world when there are global upheavals and crises that change the nature of many economic structures and forms of economic operation. In Vietnam, the digital economy is not only formed by the practical needs of the general global context but also reflected in the government's policies or action plans. In general, the digital economy is an inevitable and growing trend and is gradually being institutionalized in the state's policy system. However, there is a need for more in-depth studies on each aspect or large-scale research programs on the digital economy in Vietnam with both positive and negative aspects now and in the future.

Valid and Convenient Questionnaire Assessment of Chinese Body Constitution: Item Characteristics, Reliability, and Construct Validation.

BackgroundBody constitution is a fundamental concept in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) for clinical diagnosis, treatment of illness, and community-based health promotion. Clinical assessment of patients’ body constitutions, however, has never been easy and consistent, even by well-trained clinicians and TCM practitioners. Therefore, questionnaires such as the popular Constitution in Chinese Medicine Questionnaire (CCMQ) can be an appealing and convenient assessment alternative. The present research borrowed advanced methodologies for questionnaire development in psychology and other social sciences to examine the performance of the CCMQ in terms of (i) the strength of relations of each item with its designated constitution, (ii) the reliabilities of each constitution, and (iii) the overall 9-constitution structure. This research provided empirical evidence to support the use of the CCMQ and proposed directions for refinement in future revisions of the CCMQ or similar measures.MethodsA total of 1571 volunteers from three villages in southern China participated in the CCMQ survey. The item characteristics, reliabilities, interconstitution correlations, and confirmatory factor analysis of the 9-body-constitution structure were examined.ResultsThe results generally supported the appropriateness of the clinical observations (the questionnaire items) and the CCMQ 9-constitution classification structure. Nevertheless, some relatively weaker items, item pairs with similar meanings, and highly overlapping constitutions were identified for future CCMQ revisions.ConclusionThe CCMQ measured the 9 constitutions efficiently and with reasonably good reliability and construct validity. Given the various challenges to assessing TCM body constitutions even by experienced clinicians, the CCMQ provides an appealing alternative to measure the Chinese body constitutions of healthy participants in large-scale research or community health promotion programs. The present study also demonstrated how advanced methodologies in social sciences can help validate and refine the CCMQ and similar complementary medicine measures.

Long-term health after Severe Acute Malnutrition in children and adults- the role of the Pancreas (SAMPA): Protocol.

Background: Prenatal growth retardation may increase the risk of later chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including diabetes; however, long-term effects of wasting malnutrition in childhood or adulthood are less studied. Pancreatic exocrine and endocrine functions, both critical for nutrition and NCD aetiology, may not fully recover following malnutrition. However, the evidence and mechanistic information is piecemeal. We hypothesise that wasting malnutrition at any age has long-term detrimental effects on endocrine and exocrine pancreatic structure and function. Methods: The SAMPA international research programme will assess pancreatic structure and function in 3700 participants from ongoing observational nutrition cohorts, two adolescent and four adult, in Zambia, Tanzania, Philippines, and India. Pancreas size, structure, and calcification will be assessed by ultrasound and computed tomography (CT) scan; exocrine function by faecal elastase and serum lipase; and endocrine function by haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and blood glucose, insulin and C-peptide concentrations during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). In-depth hormonal analyses of incretins, glucagon, proinsulin and trypsinogen during OGTT and intravenous glucose tolerance tests will be done in subsets of adult participants. Pancreatic size and function outcomes will be compared between people with and without prior wasting malnutrition. Analyses will investigate effect modification by sex, current age, time since malnutrition, current body mass index and dietary patterns. Mathematical modelling of OGTT data will be used to estimate the relative contribution to glucose dysregulation of decreased insulin production, changes in insulin clearance and increased insulin resistance. Proinsulin/insulin ratio will be analysed in archived samples from the Tanzanian cohort using a nested case-control design to investigate whether abnormal values precede diabetes. Conclusions: SAMPA, a large-scale multi-centre research programme using data from people with or without prior wasting malnutrition to assess several aspects of pancreatic phenotype, will provide coherent evidence for future policies and programmes for malnutrition and diabetes.

The value of information about solar geoengineering and the two-sided cost of bias

ABSTRACT Solar geoengineering (SG) might be able to reduce climate risks if used to supplement emissions cuts and carbon removal. Yet, the wisdom of proceeding with research to reduce its uncertainties is disputed. Here, we use an integrated assessment model to estimate that the value of information that reduces uncertainty about SG efficacy. We find the value of reducing uncertainty by one-third by 2030 is around $4.5 trillion, most of which comes from reduced climate damages rather than reduced mitigation costs. Reducing uncertainty about SG efficacy is similar in value to reducing uncertainty about climate sensitivity. We analyse the cost of over-confidence about SG that causes too little emissions cuts and too much SG. Consistent with concerns about SG’s moral hazard problem, we find an over-confident bias is a serious and costly concern; but, we also find under-confidence that prematurely rules out SG can be roughly as costly. Biased judgments are costly in both directions. A coin has two sides. Our analysis quantitatively demonstrates the risk-risk trade-off around SG and reinforces the value of research that can reduce uncertainty. Key policy insights The value of reducing uncertainty about solar geoengineering is comparable to the value of reducing uncertainty about other key climate factors, such as equilibrium climate sensitivity. The benefits of research that reduces uncertainty about solar geoengineering may be more than a thousand times larger than the cost of a large-scale research programme. Under-confidence in solar geoengineering’s effectiveness can be as costly as over-confidence. The majority of the benefits of reduced uncertainty come from reducing climate damages rather than from slowing emissions reductions.

Reflections on an emerging new science of mental disorders

This article reflects on the papers included in the Special Issue on The Network Approach and the Future of Clinical Psychology (Roefs, Jansen, & Fried, 2022). The emergence of major empirical research programs into symptom networks is discussed in relation to the research agenda involving the system dynamics of mental disorders. This research agenda is then related to major themes addressed in the special issue: the integration of empirical results into a larger theoretical framework, the role of mental representations and neurobiological factors, the problem of measurement error, and the presence of heterogeneity. Taken together, the generation of large scale research programs, the availability of new sources of data, and the availability of network approaches creates momentum that may allow us to take crucial steps forward in assessing, modeling, and intervening on mental disorders.

Big-data projects: English landscapes and identities

This review considers two books outlining the results of a major big-data project in England that sought to make sense of the growing amount of information from developer-funded archaeology, the reporting of finds to the Portable Antiquities Scheme, and from a wide range of other databases. The result is fascinating and thought-provoking discussions of how we could interpret regional variation in archaeological data, although methodological issues present an interesting case study of the challenges that big-data projects face. The publication strategy—of two separate volumes—also raises questions about how we should disseminate the results of large-scale research programmes.