Large-scale Earthquakes Research Articles

A dynamic analysis of in-situ stress state at the Upper Tamakoshi Hydroelectric Project area, Nepal

The in-situ stress condition in the rock mass is influenced by both tectonic and geological environment, such as faulting and shearing in the rock mass. This influence is of considerable magnitude in the Himalayan region where the tectonic movement is active, resulting periodic dynamic earthquakes. Each large-scale earthquake causes both accumulation and sudden release of strain energy instigating changes in the in-situ stress environment in the rock mass. This paper evaluates the influence of local shear fault on the in-situ stress state along the shot crete lined high pressure tunnel of Upper Tamakoshi Hydroelectric Project, 456 MW in Nepal. A detailed assessment of the in-situ stress state is carried out by using both; measured data and three-dimensional numerical analysis using FLAC3D. The analysis includes evaluation on the possible changes in the in-situ stress state in the rock mass caused by seismic activities (dynamic loading). HYDRO Nepal JournalJournal of Water, Energy and Environment Issue: 23Year: 2018

Prioritizing disaster-prone areas for large-scale earthquakes' preparedness: Methodology and application

This paper presents a new hybrid fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making approach to prioritize disaster-prone areas which are known as potential demand points (PDPs) regarding their vulnerability under large-scale earthquakes. Significant criteria for prioritizing PDPs are first determined. Then, the fuzzy DEMATEL is applied to specify interrelationship between the criteria, and the weights of criteria are achieved by the fuzzy ANP. Finally, the fuzzy PROMETHEE II is used to rank the PDPs. The proposed methodology is validated using a conventional relief pre-positioning network design model. Numerical results demonstrate the applicability and usefulness of the presented approach in configuring a more responsive relief network in practice.

Electricity System Reform Requirements: A Novel Implementation to Grid Management and Control

After the 2011 large-scale earthquake and nuclear accident in Japan, the Japanese government held a nationwide discussion to determine how the traditional energy policy and electricity system should be reformed to.

A Study on Actual Conditions about Vulnerable People during a Large Scale Earthquake Disaster

A Study on Actual Conditions about Vulnerable People during a Large Scale Earthquake Disaster

Monitoring of Crustal Movements Using Satellite SAR Data and Observing Volcanic Terrain Using Airborne SAR

In 2018, A large-scale earthquake occurred directly underneath Iburi area in Hokkaido. Furthermore, several volcanos erupted in Japan with volcanic terrain changed. In this report, we introduce disaster response in 2018 by Geospatial Information Authority of Japan (GSI) using satellite SAR data for detecting crustal movements and airborne SAR data for observing volcanic terrain changes. GSI released these results of analysis via website. Also GSI provided them to various institutes and local governments for their disaster response and recovery operations.

Evaluation of the moderate earthquake resilience of counties in China based on a three-stage DEA model

China has been struck by earthquakes at all scales, and such quakes have resulted in enormous human and property losses. Previous studies have mainly focused on large-scale earthquakes. However, small-scale quakes can also have long-term impacts. This study sheds light on moderate earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.0. It aims to evaluate county resilience to moderate earthquakes based on 102 moderate quakes that occurred in Mainland China during 2002–2014. To overcome the shortcomings of traditional data envelopment analysis (DEA) evaluation methods, this study adopts a three-stage super-efficient DEA model to evaluate the resilience of counties that have been struck by moderate earthquakes. Moreover, it identifies socioeconomic factors that can effectively affect county resilience. Results suggest that most counties in China that have been struck by moderate earthquakes exhibit low efficiency and resilience. The research uses Tobit regression to demonstrate that insurance intensity, hospital beds, teledensity, government financial expenditure, and disaster experience can efficiently improve county resilience to moderate earthquakes, which indicates the future improvement direction of local resilience. Moreover, a region with a high frequency of moderate quakes displays relatively low efficiency and resilience. Considerable attention and effort should be afforded to these areas.

Modeling of damage-related earthquake losses in a moderate seismic-prone country and cost–benefit evaluation of retrofit investments: application to France

We performed large-scale earthquake economic loss estimations for France and cost–benefit analyses for several French cities by developing a semiempirical, intensity-based approach. The proposed methodology is inexpensive and easily applicable in case of a paucity of detailed information regarding the specific regional seismic hazard and the structural characteristics of the building stock, which is of particular importance in moderate-to-low seismic hazard regions. The exposure model is derived from census datasets, and the seismic vulnerability distribution of buildings is calculated using data mining techniques. Several hypothetical, large-scale retrofit scenarios are proposed, with increasing levels of investment. These cities, in their respective reinforced states, are then subjected to a series of hazard scenarios. Seismic hazard data for different return periods are calculated from regulatory accelerations from French seismic zoning. Loss estimations for the original (non-reinforced) configuration show high levels of expected building repair and replacement costs for all time spans. Finally, the benefits in terms of damage avoidance are compared with the costs of each retrofit measure. Relatively limited strengthening investments reduce the probability of building collapse, which is the main cause of human casualties. However, the results of this study suggest that retrofitting is, on average, only cost-effective in the parts of France with the highest seismicity and over the longest time horizons.

Preliminary Study on Long-Term Flooding After the Tsunami

After the Nankai earthquake in 1946, the resultant flooding lasted for a long time, because seawater remained on land after the tsunami in Kochi city. Large-scale flooding occurred in Ishinomaki city immediately after the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. Long-term flooding may hamper disaster responses such as rescue and recovery activities. This paper studied the risks of long-term flooding after the Nankai earthquake in Tokushima city based on a paleographical survey and numerical analysis. The paleographical survey identified statements such as “seawater sometimes flowed onto the land at the full tide,” suggesting occurrences of long-term flooding after previous Nankai earthquakes. The numerical analysis separately calculated values inside and outside the levee. The tsunami waveforms outside the analysis area obtained by tsunami numerical simulation was used as the boundary condition of the inland flow modeling, that is water was introduced inside the levee when the tsunami water level exceeded the upper end of the levee. The two layers of ground surface and the drain were defined to calculate the flow, including water exchange between the two layers, and the water was drained forcefully outside the levee using a drainage pump. The possibility of long-term flooding in the analysis area is suggested when a large-scale earthquake occurs in the Nankai trough.

Life cycle assessment and life cycle costs for pre-disaster waste management systems

This study develops a method of environmental and economic evaluation of an integrated disaster waste management system that considers the spatial scale of removal, transport, and treatment of disaster waste. A case study was conducted on combustibles, which is a type of disaster waste derived from dwellings, in Mie Prefecture, Japan. First, we calculated the quantity and the spatial distribution of disaster waste derived from dwellings and tsunami debris produced as a result of a large-scale earthquake. The quantity of disaster waste was estimated as 7,178,000t with functioning flood-preventing facilities and 11,956,000t without functioning flood prevention facilities. Ensuring resilience in the face of earthquakes and tsunamis by renovating flood-preventing facilities is extremely important in decreasing the production of wastes, especially in coastal regions. Next, the transportation network for transporting combustibles in disaster waste to temporary storage sites, incineration plants, and landfill was constructed using an optimization model. The results showed that if flood-preventing facilities do not function properly, the installation of temporary incineration facilities becomes essential. Life-cycle emissions of CO2, SOx, NOx, and PM and the costs of removal, storage, and treatment of combustibles were calculated as 258,000t, 618t, 1705t, 7.9t, and 246millionUSD, respectively, in the case of functioning flood-preventing facilities. If flood-preventing facilities do not function, the quantity of environmentally unfriendly emissions and the costs increase. This result suggested the significance of renovation in order to maintain the conditions of flood-preventing facilities to decrease the environmental burden and costs as well as keep the production of disaster waste at a minimum.

Multi-Objective Emergency Material Vehicle Dispatching and Routing under Dynamic Constraints in an Earthquake Disaster Environment

Emergency material vehicle dispatching and routing (EMVDR) is an important task in emergency relief after large-scale earthquake disasters. However, EMVDR is subject to dynamic disaster environment, with uncertainty surrounding elements such as the transportation network and relief materials. Accurate and dynamic emergency material dispatching and routing is difficult. This paper proposes an effective and efficient multi-objective multi-dynamic-constraint emergency material vehicle dispatching and routing model. Considering travel time, road capacity, and material supply and demand, the proposed EMVDR model is to deliver emergency materials from multiple emergency material depositories to multiple disaster points while satisfying the objectives of maximizing transport efficiency and minimizing the difference of material urgency degrees among multiple disaster points at any one time. Furthermore, a continuous-time dynamic network flow method is developed to solve this complicated model. The collected data from Ludian earthquake were used to conduct our experiments in the post-quake and the results demonstrate that: (1) the EMVDR model adapts to the dynamic disaster environment very well; (2) considering the difference of material urgency degree, the material loss ratio is −10.7%, but the variance of urgency degree decreases from 2.39 to 0.37; (3) the EMVDR model shows good performance in time and space, which allows for decisions to be made nearly in real time. This paper can provide spatial decision-making support for emergency material relief in large-scale earthquake disasters.

大都市大震災レスキューロボットと雪害レスキューロボットは同じ?(アイ・サイ問答教室)

大都市大震災レスキューロボットと雪害レスキューロボットは同じ?(アイ・サイ問答教室)

Return Migration After 30 September 2009 Earthquake in West Sumatra, Indonesia

This article analyzed return migrants associated with the West Sumatra Large-Scale Earthquake on 30 September 2009. A survey of 400 households traced the number of return migrants. Any respondent migrated due to the earthquake belongs to return migrant. This study found the return migrants accounting for almost 37% because of the disaster. Both men and women migrated because of the earthquake, but more men migrated than women. Married couple migrated more than unmarried. Pekanbaru, the capital of Riau province, is the most famous destination for migration. The education level of return migrants is higher than the stayers. More than 88% are living from trade, public services, and fishing. Above 50% is living from trading alone. The return migrants shared a similar employment status with the stayers. Entrepreneurial status is more important for return migrants than for the stayers. Income distribution shows a different pattern between return migrants and the stayers. The return migrants have a more significant part of the maximum income group. The return migrants at the highest income group account for 27%, which is obviously greater than the stayers.

巨大地震に対する鋼矢板補強工法の堤防沈下抑制効果に関する研究

巨大地震に対する鋼矢板補強工法の堤防沈下抑制効果に関する研究

Contrasting between Focusing, Real-world and Significant Events in Agenda-Setting: Introducing a New Typology of “Anchor” Events

The event theory has been substantially formed by contributions of John Kingdon by offering a somewhat broader definition of through the prism of his multiple streams theory, and Thomas Birkland, who introduced better precision by listing a number of basic characteristics of (e.g. using the example of 9/11 terrorist attacks as a event, as in Birkland 2004). These major contributions notwithstanding, there still seems to be a strikingly persistent absence of clarity in defining the notion of focusing events within the agenda-setting stage of the policy process, and a lack of a general typology of related significant, or key events. Even somewhat more disturbing is that, inspired by Birkland’s notion of events, a number of subsequent scholars attempted to develop this theory, unintentionally further conflating the meaning of events. Thus, it is important not only to more clearly define but also to develop an operationalizable typology of a broader set of related anchor as applied to agenda-setting. It is precisely these two issues that form the analytical essence and contributions this paper aims to achieve. The event theory has become increasingly vital to explain a wide range of social and policy-related events, e.g. 9/11, large-scale earthquakes, major healthcare reforms in a given jurisdiction etc.

A Study on Accessibility to Shelters Considering Building Collapse In Case of Large Scale Earthquake

A Study on Accessibility to Shelters Considering Building Collapse In Case of Large Scale Earthquake

Automatic 3D soil model generation for southern part of the European side of Istanbul based on GIS database

Automatic large scale soil model generation is very critical stage for earthquake hazard simulation of urban areas. Manual model development may cause some data losses and may not be effective when there are too many data from different soil observations in a wide area. Geographic information systems (GIS) for storing and analyzing spatial data help scientists to generate better models automatically. Although the original soil observations were limited to soil profile data, the recent developments in mapping technology, interpolation methods, and remote sensing have provided advanced soil model developments. Together with advanced computational technology, it is possible to handle much larger volumes of data. The scientists may solve difficult problems of describing the spatial variation of soil. In this study, an algorithm is proposed for automatic three dimensional soil and velocity model development of southern part of the European side of Istanbul next to Sea of Marmara based on GIS data. In the proposed algorithm, firstly bedrock surface is generated from integration of geological and geophysical measurements. Then, layer surface contacts are integrated with data gathered in vertical borings, and interpolations are interpreted on sections between the borings automatically. Three dimensional underground geology model is prepared using boring data, geologic cross sections and formation base contours drawn in the light of these data. During the preparation of the model, classification studies are made based on formation models. Then, 3D velocity models are developed by using geophysical measurements such as refraction–microtremor, array microtremor and PS logging. The soil and velocity models are integrated and final soil model is obtained. All stages of this algorithm are carried out automatically in the selected urban area. The system directly reads the GIS soil data in the selected part of urban area and 3D soil model is automatically developed for large scale earthquake hazard simulation studies.

大規模地震発生時のリスク低減を目的としたサプライヤの生産拠点分散化案の評価

In the case of recent large-scale earthquakes, some factories which is affected by them have to stop production, and it influenced the entire supply chain in chains. As one of risk measures, there is a decentralization of supplier’s production bases, but it needs large costs of transporting and purchasing machines and duplications of metal molds, jigs and tools. Therefore, after considering cost effectiveness, it is necessary to decentralize supplier’s production bases. In this research, we propose a method of evaluating plans to decentralize supplier’s production bases for virtual scenarios. We consider the risk at the time of earthquake as the expectation which is sales opportunity loss and restoration costs multiplied by an earthquake probability, and then simulate costs in virtual supply chain and evaluate the effectiveness of these plans.

Schoolteachers' traumatic experiences and responses in the context of a large-scale earthquake in China

This article investigates the traumatic experience of teachers who experienced the 2008 earthquake in Sichuan, China. A survey measuring participants' personal experiences, professional demands, and psychological responses was distributed to 241 teachers in five selected schools. Although the status of schoolteachers' trauma in a postdisaster situation has been explored in other countries, to date no comparable study has been made in China. The findings of this study address the literature gap by providing a picture of schoolteachers' personal and professional experience, their working conditions, and their coping strategies in a postdisaster situation.

A new approach on seismic mortality estimations based on average population density

This study examines a new methodology to predict the final seismic mortality from earthquakes in China. Most studies established the association between mortality estimation and seismic intensity without considering the population density. In China, however, the data are not always available, especially when it comes to the very urgent relief situation in the disaster. And the population density varies greatly from region to region. This motivates the development of empirical models that use historical death data to provide the path to analyze the death tolls for earthquakes. The present paper employs the average population density to predict the final death tolls in earthquakes using a case-based reasoning model from realistic perspective. To validate the forecasting results, historical data from 18 large-scale earthquakes occurred in China are used to estimate the seismic morality of each case. And a typical earthquake case occurred in the northwest of Sichuan Province is employed to demonstrate the estimation of final death toll. The strength of this paper is that it provides scientific methods with overall forecast errors lower than 20 %, and opens the door for conducting final death forecasts with a qualitative and quantitative approach. Limitations and future research are also analyzed and discussed in the conclusion.

국외 대규모 지진과 최근 발생한 국내지진에 의한 이온층 총 전자수 변화

대규모 지진 전/후에 이온층에서 발생하는 총 전자수(TEC)의 이상 변화를 재 확인하고, 국내에서 발생하는 지진에서도 이와 유사한 현상이 발견되는지를 조사하였다. 먼저 최근 지진관련 이온층 변화가 보고되었던 국외 대규모 지진들과, 근래에 발생한 규모 7.8 에콰도르 강진에 대해 TEC를 계산하고, 지진 발생 전 후의 특성을 확인하였다. TEC 계산 결과, 선행 연구들과 유사한 TEC 변화 시계열을 얻을 수 있었으나, 시계열들이 후처리되는 방법에 따라 전조현상 또는 후지진 현상으로 해석될 수 있다는 사실을 확인하였다. 최근 국내에서 발생한 지진들에 대하여 지진에 의한 TEC 변화 가능성을 조사하였으나, 2016년 경주지진을 포함한 가장 높은 규모의 국내지진들과 관련하여 지진 전/후에 TEC의 이상 변화를 찾아볼 수 없었다. 이는 판의 경계에서 발생하는 국외의 대규모 지진들에 비해, 국내 지진이 대기 중으로 방출하는 탄성파(음파) 에너지가 작기 때문이라고 여겨진다. We investigated pre- and post- seismic total electron content (TEC) anomalies in ionosphere caused by recent large-scale earthquakes around the globe and additionally examined whether the similar phenomena are detected in connection with the earthquakes around the Korean Penisula. TEC anomalies associated with the large-scale earthquakes showed the similar results to previous studies. In addition, we newly found the similar TEC changes from the recent 2016 Ecuador earthquake (M7.8). However, the post-seismic TEC changes would be falsely interpreted as the pre-seismic TEC changes dependent on the post-processing of TEC observation. We also investigated the possibility of TEC responses from the recent domestic earthquakes including 2016 Gyeongju earthquake but could not find any anomalous TEC changes. This is probably because the domestic earthquakes release significantly smaller acoustic wave energy than that of large-scale earthquakes occurring in plate boundaries.