Evaluation of the moderate earthquake resilience of counties in China based on a three-stage DEA model

Abstract

China has been struck by earthquakes at all scales, and such quakes have resulted in enormous human and property losses. Previous studies have mainly focused on large-scale earthquakes. However, small-scale quakes can also have long-term impacts. This study sheds light on moderate earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.0. It aims to evaluate county resilience to moderate earthquakes based on 102 moderate quakes that occurred in Mainland China during 2002–2014. To overcome the shortcomings of traditional data envelopment analysis (DEA) evaluation methods, this study adopts a three-stage super-efficient DEA model to evaluate the resilience of counties that have been struck by moderate earthquakes. Moreover, it identifies socioeconomic factors that can effectively affect county resilience. Results suggest that most counties in China that have been struck by moderate earthquakes exhibit low efficiency and resilience. The research uses Tobit regression to demonstrate that insurance intensity, hospital beds, teledensity, government financial expenditure, and disaster experience can efficiently improve county resilience to moderate earthquakes, which indicates the future improvement direction of local resilience. Moreover, a region with a high frequency of moderate quakes displays relatively low efficiency and resilience. Considerable attention and effort should be afforded to these areas.