Large Probability Research Articles

Cumulative stress: A general “s” factor in the structure of stress

ObjectiveThe present study tested a hierarchical model of cumulative stress in a large probability sample of adults from the United States. MethodsExploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) models were used to develop and test a hierarchical model of cumulative stress. Structural equation models were used to estimate concurrent associations with demographic factors, polygenic risk scores, and physical health outcomes, as well as prospective associations with physical health outcomes. ResultsA hierarchical model of cumulative stress was the best-fitting model, with a general “s-factor” capturing the tendency for subordinate dimensions of stress to correlate. Associations with demographic factors and polygenic risk scores for physical and psychological phenotypes provide evidence for the convergent validity of a general s-factor of cumulative stress. The general s-factor and subordinate factors of cumulative stress were also associated with physical health outcomes, concurrently and prospectively, including number of chronic conditions, body mass index, and difficulty with activities of daily living. ConclusionsLike other human individual differences, the co-occurrence of social stressors can be understood using a hierarchical model.

DEVELOPMENT OF INSTRUMENTAL MODULE FOR OUTWARD IRREGULAR POLISHING WITH ACTIVATING LUBRICATING-COOLING LIQUIDS (LCL )

Quality of superficial layer of details of machines, qualificatory them operating descriptions in most cases are formed at polishing. This process is characterized high thermal tension and large probability of appearance in the superficial layers of the polished details of defects as прожогов and микротрещин, reducing their operating properties.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 One of ways of decline of thermal tension of process of polishing and improvement of quality of the polished details are the use of rational charts of treatment and application of effective compositions of lubricating-cooling liquids (LCL). For realization of these terms the instrumental module of collapsible diamond-impregnated for the round outward polishing, using the methods of irregular treatment, is in-process worked out, providing a serve LCL in the zone of cutting and her activating in кавитационных attachments. His construction allows to improve penetration LCL in the zone of contact of diamond-impregnated with a purveyance, that results in reduction of теплонапряженности process and improvement of quality of surface at the increase of the productivity of treatment. The effect of the irregular polishing is got with admission LCL through abrasive bars and interval between them.

Spin structures of the ground states of four body bound systems with spin 3 cold atoms

We consider the case that four spin-3 atoms are confined in an optical trap. The temperature is so low that the spatial degrees of freedom have been frozen. Exact numerical and analytical solutions for the spin-states have been both obtained. Two kinds of phase-diagrams for the ground states (g.s.) have been plotted. In general, the eigen-states with the total-spin S (a good quantum number) can be expanded in terms of a few basis-states f_{S,i}. Let P_{f_{S,i}}^{lambda } be the probability of a pair of spins coupled to lambda =0, 2, 4, and 6 in the f_{S,i} state. Obviously, when the strength g_{lambda } of the lambda -channel is more negative, the basis-state with the largest P_{f_{S,i}}^{lambda } would be more preferred by the g.s.. When two strengths are more negative, the two basis-states with the two largest probabilities would be more important components. Thus, based on the probabilities, the spin-structures (described via the basis-states) can be understood. Furthermore, all the details in the phase-diagrams, say, the critical points of transition, can also be explained. Note that, for f_{S,i}, P_{f_{S,i}}^{lambda } is completely determined by symmetry. Thus, symmetry plays a very important role in determining the spin-structure of the g.s..

On interference effects in top-philic decay chains

Sizeable exotic Higgs boson production through gluon fusion via top quark loops is correlated with large Higgs decay probabilities into top quark final states, if these are kinematically accessible. It is known that gg→S→tt¯ is particularly susceptible to signal-background interference effects that can significantly impact discovery sensitivities. In such an instance, identifying more robust signatures to enhance the discovery sensitivity becomes necessary, shifting phenomenological focus to final states that show a reduced destructive signal-background interference. In this work, we discuss the phenomenological relevance of signal-signal and signal-background interference effects for decay chains. In particular, we identify asymmetric cascade decays in models of scalar extensions of the SM Higgs sector as new promising candidates. In parallel, characteristic interference patterns can provide a formidable tool for indirect CP spectroscopy of BSM sectors if a discovery is made in the future. This motivates associated searches at present and future colliders as robust discovery modes of new physics, in addition to serving as a sensitive tool for the reconstruction of the underlying UV electroweak potential.

GPDEM-based stochastic seismic response analysis of high concrete-faced rockfill dam with spatial variability of rockfill properties based on plastic deformation

The spatial variability of rockfill properties is the key factor affecting stochastic seismic responses. Herein, an efficient probabilistic analysis method for stochastic seismic analysis named the generalized probability density evolution method (GPDEM) is proposed and combined with the random field generated by K-L decomposition to evaluate the stochastic seismic responses of concrete-faced rockfill dams (CFRDs) during earthquakes. The vertical plastic deformation is selected as a significant index to quantify the effect of rockfill spatial variability. First, a series of 2D random fields and a finite element model of the CFRD profile are established. Each realization of random fields is assigned to each grid depending on the coordinates. Then, four working conditions (different constitutive model parameters, cross-correlation coefficients, concrete-faced slab contact positions and earthquake intensities) are investigated and compared in CFRD dynamic calculations. Finally, the GPDEM-based vertical plastic deformation results are obtained, and probabilistic analyses are carried out to evaluate the influence of rockfill property uncertainty on the stochastic seismic responses. Multiple figures of the probability density function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF) of dynamic calculations are shown as examples to analyze the marked effect of rockfill spatial variability. The results demonstrate that the control parameter (Mf) is the most influential parameter of stochastic seismic responses in the GPDEM. The cross-correlation coefficient increases the probability of large vertical plastic deformation compared to zero. Moreover, the nonfaced-slab side is more sensitive to the effect of rockfill uncertainties. Increasing the seismic motion intensity causes a larger probability beyond the limit.

ASSESSING SELECTION BIAS IN REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS ESTIMATED FROM NONPROBABILITY SAMPLES WITH APPLICATIONS TO GENETICS AND DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEYS.

Selection bias is a serious potential problem for inference about relationships of scientific interest based on samples without well-defined probability sampling mechanisms. Motivated by the potential for selection bias in: (a) estimated relationships of polygenic scores (PGSs) with phenotypes in genetic studies of volunteers and (b) estimated differences in subgroup means in surveys of smartphone users, we derive novel measures of selection bias for estimates of the coefficients in linear and probit regression models fitted to nonprobability samples, when aggregate-level auxiliary data are available for the selected sample and the target population. The measures arise from normal pattern-mixture models that allow analysts to examine the sensitivity of their inferences to assumptions about nonignorable selection in these samples. We examine the effectiveness of the proposed measures in a simulation study and then use them to quantify the selection bias in: (a) estimated PGS-phenotype relationships in a large study of volunteers recruited via Facebook and (b) estimated subgroup differences in mean past-year employment duration in a nonprobability sample of low-educated smartphone users. We evaluate the performance of the measures in these applications using benchmark estimates from large probability samples.

Effectiveness of Application of WHO Multimodal Strategy for Improvement of Knowledge, Practice, and Professional Quality of Life of Nurses during COVID-19 Pandemic

Background: The application of the WHO multimodal strategy during the periods of the outbreak of COVID-19, is of great importance for improving nurses', knowledge, practice, and professional quality of life. Aim: To Evaluate the Effectiveness of the application of the WHO multimodal strategy on knowledge, practice, and professional quality of life of a nurse's during the Covid-19 pandemic and compare between nurses working in intensive care unit and isolation word about knowledge, practice, and professional quality of life. Design: Quasi-Experimental research design was utilized. Setting: The current study was carried out at general Quwesna Hospital, Menoufia governorate, Egypt. At isolation wards for COVID-19 patients and intensive care unit (ICU). Subject: a purposive sample of (110) nurses providing direct care for Covid-19 patients, they were divided into two groups study group one: (45) nurses in ICU and Study group two: (57) nurses at isolation wards. Tools: Tool I- nurse's socio-demographic and medical data. Tool (2): Covid-19 nurses knowledge assessment. Tool (3): Covid-19 nurses practice Observational checklist, and Tool (4) The Professional Quality of Life scale (ProQOL). Results: A highly significant difference was found between both groups pre/post application of WHO multimodal guidelines about knowledge and practice mean scores. Compassion Satisfaction was increased from an average level to the high level and burnout was decreased from average level to the low-level post-intervention of application of WHO multimodal strategy. Conclusions: The application of the WHO multimodal strategy had been proven to significantly increase knowledge, practice and Professional quality of life mean score of nurses. Recommendations: Applications of the WHO multimodal strategy and replication of the study using a large probability sample from a different geographical area to allow for greater generalization of the results

No association between rheumatoid arthritis and cognitive impairment in a cross-sectional national sample of older U.S. adults

BackgroundStudies suggest an increased prevalence of cognitive impairment (CI) among people with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, most prior studies have used convenience samples which are subject to selection biases or have failed to adjust for key confounding variables. We thus examined the association between CI and RA in a large national probability sample of older US adults.MethodsData were from interviews with 4462 participants in the 2016 wave of the nationally representative U.S. Health and Retirement Study with linked Medicare claims. RA diagnoses were identified via a minimum of two ICD-9CM or ICD-10 codes in Medicare billing records during the prior 2 years. The Langa-Weir Classification was used to classify cognitive status as normal, cognitively impaired non-dementia (CIND), or dementia based on a brief neuropsychological battery for self-respondents and informant reports for proxy respondents. We compared the odds of CI between older adults with and without RA using logistic regression, adjusted for age, education, gender, and race.ResultsMedicare records identified a 3.36% prevalence of RA (150/4462). While age, gender, education, and race independently predicted CI status, controlling for these covariates we found no difference in CI prevalence according to RA status (prevalent CI in 36.7% of older adults with RA vs. 34.0% without RA; adjusted OR = 1.08, 95% CI 0.74–1.59, p = .69).ConclusionThere was no association between RA and CI in this national sample of older U.S. adults.

Compassionate Care: Correlation and Predictors of Nurses’ and Patients’ Opinions

Background: Compassion has also been defined as acknowledgment and engagement with one's own suffer and the suffering of others, together with a deep commitment to work towards alleviating and preventing that suffering. This definition highlights two psychological components of compassion that provide a direction for the therapy. Aim: This study aims to evaluate the correlation and predictors of nurses’ and patients’ opinions about compassion in Beni-Suef city. Design: A descriptive cross-sectional design was used in conducting the study. Setting: This research was conducted at Beni-Suef University Hospital, General Hospital, as well as Continuing/Long-term care and Home Health Care (HHC) services. Sample: 140 nurses being employed in the current health care facility for at least one year were eligible for inclusion in the study sample and all elderly (140) patients receiving care in the above-mentioned settings. Tools: Two tools have been used to gather data; 1) Structured questionnaire interview sheet included data related to socio-demographic characteristics for nurses and patients. 2) Compassionate Care Scale. Results: Statistically significant moderate positive correlations were identified among nurses’ scores of compassionate care attitude, practice, and confidence. Nurses’ scores of compassionate care confidence and practice had statistically significant weak positive correlations with their qualification, and negative correlations with their age and experience. The unmarried status of the nurse was the only statistically significant independent negative predictor of the compassionate care attitude score. A strong statistically significant negative correlation between patients’ scores of opinions about patient expectations and nurses’ attitude toward compassionate care (r=-0.900). Conclusion: The study findings concluded a strongest correlation between the scores of nurse competence and caring attributes. A strong statistically significant negative correlation between patients’ scores of opinions about patient expectations and nurses’ attitude toward compassionate care was found. Recommendations: Replication of this study on a large representative probability sample is highly recommended to achieve more generalization of the results for further research. The impact of such training interventions on elderly patients’ opinions about compassionate care should also be investigated.

On prospect theory, making choices for others, and the affective psychology of risk

Previous research has generally shown that people’s decisions conform to the four-fold pattern of prospect theory; that is, people over-weight prospects with small probabilities and under-weight prospects with large probabilities. In terms of making risky decisions, the four-fold pattern unfolds accordingly: people make (1) risk-seeking choices among options that involve small-probable gains or large-probable losses; and (2) risk-averse choices among options that involve small-probable losses or large-probable gains. In three experiments and a summary quantitative model, we found that for interpersonal choices—decisions people make for others—the four-fold pattern attenuates and reverses in shape. We attributed this transformation to a unique signature in interpersonal decision makers’ emotions, which varied in mean, mode, and distribution from personal decision makers’. In all, our research offers new insights on prospect theory, interpersonal decision making, and the affective psychology of risk.

Blockage Probability Modeling of Large Wood at Reservoir Spillways With Piers

AbstractLarge wood increases the morphological and hydraulic complexity of rivers, yet it may block and modify the flood discharge capacity of hydraulic structures. To assess the related risk, blockage probability estimation for hydraulic structures such as reservoir spillways is needed. This work presents unstudied parameters for blockage of large wood with a reservoir‐type approach flow, where the inflow velocity has a negligible magnitude. Experiments were conducted in a channel with an ogee crested spillway equipped with piers, representing a commonly used hydraulic structure. Artificial stems were used to systematically evaluate the influence of stem length and stem draft on the blocking process. Different hydraulic conditions were evaluated by changing the water level in the reservoir. The head at the spillway crest with respect to stem draft was found to be a key parameter for blockage probability estimation at a spillway. Additionally, stem length was related to the bay width in the estimation of blockage. Larger heads tend to reduce the blocking probability of large wood, for a given stem draft, while increasing the relative stem length tends to increase the blocking probability. A logistic regression model is provided to estimate large wood blockage probability at ogee crested spillways with piers. Finally, recommendations for engineering practice are presented.

Cooperation between independent market makers

With the digitalization of the financial market, dealers are increasingly handling market-making activities by algorithms. Recent antitrust literature raises concerns on collusion caused by artificial intelligence. This paper studies the possibility of cooperation between market makers via independent Q-learning. with inventory risk is formulated as a repeated general-sum game. Under a stag-hunt type payoff, we find that market makers can learn cooperative strategies without communication. In general, high spreads can have the largest probability even when the lowest spread is the unique Nash equilibrium. Moreover, introducing more agents into the game does not necessarily eliminate the presence of supra-competitive spreads.

Self-organized multistability in the forest fire model.

The forest fire model in statistical physics represents a paradigm for systems close to but not completely at criticality. For large tree growth probabilities p we identify periodic attractors, where the tree density ρ oscillates between discrete values. For lower p this self-organized multistability persists with incrementing numbers of states. Even at low p the system remains quasiperiodic with a frequency ≈p on the way to chaos. In addition, the power-spectrum shows 1/f^{2} scaling (Brownian noise) at the low frequencies f, which turns into white noise for very long simulation times.

Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from Survey Response Related to Late-Onset Dementia.

We elicit numerical expectations for late-onset dementia and long-term-care (LTC) outcomes in the US Health and Retirement Study. We provide the first empirical evidence on dementia-risk perceptions among dementia-free older Americans and establish important patterns regarding imprecision of subjective probabilities. Our elicitation distinguishes between precise and imprecise probabilities, while accounting for rounding of reports. Imprecise-probability respondents quantify imprecision using probability intervals. Nearly half of respondents hold imprecise dementia and LTC probabilities, while almost a third of precise-probability respondents round their reports. These proportions decrease substantially when LTC expectations are conditioned on hypothetical knowledge of the dementia state. Among rounding and imprecise-probability respondents, our elicitation yields two measures: an initial rounded or approximated response and a post-probe response, which we interpret as the respondent's true point or interval probability. We study the mapping between the two measures and find that respondents initially tend to over-report small probabilities and under-report large probabilities. Using a specific framework for study of LTC insurance choice with uncertain dementia state, we illustrate the dangers of ignoring imprecise or rounded probabilities for modeling and prediction of insurance demand.

Luminescent properties of Er3+-doped La2O3–Ga2O3 glass prepared by aerodynamic levitation technique

Although silicon photonics has made great progress, there are still challenges to realization of modules or devices such as integrated light sources and amplifiers because of the indirect band gap nature of silicon. In this paper, we report a high concentration Er3+-doped La2O3–Ga2O3 glass for Er3+-doped waveguide amplifier (EDWA). The results show the xEr2O3–44La2O3-(56-x)Ga2O3 glasses prepared by the aerodynamic levitation (ADL) technique have high glass transition temperatures (Tg > 1000 K) and microhardness (HV ≥ 6.9 GPa), which means the glasses have high thermal stability and damage resistance. The Er3+ concentration in Er2O3–44La2O3-55Ga2O3 glass is as high as ~2.5 × 1020 cm−3, and the luminous intensity at NIR (~1550 nm) is ~10–100 times that of up-conversion and MIR. The small branching ratio β of the 4I11/2 → 4I13/2 transition (20.1 %), large radiative transition probabilities Arad for 4I13/2 → 4I15/2 transition (190.39 s−1), and low temperature sensitivity of luminescence make the glass an idea material for EDWA using in NIR band.

Novel Approach to ^{93m}Mo Isomer Depletion: Nuclear Excitation by Electron Capture in Resonant Transfer Process.

A novel approach for isomer depletion in ion-atom collisions is proposed and considered theoretically. Analyses are performed for the depletion of the ^{93m}Mo isomer for which an unexpectedly large probability was measured in the beam-based experiment of Chiara etal. [Nature (London) 554, 216 (2018)NATUAS0028-083610.1038/nature25483]. The subsequent attempt at a theoretical description based on state-of-the-art atomic theory did not reproduce the experimental result [Wu etal., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 212501 (2019)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.122.212501] and showed a dramatic disagreement with the experiment (by many orders of magnitude). This conflict calls for further research on the nature of isomer depletion mechanisms occurring in atomic processes. Here, we propose to consider the ^{93m}Mo isomer depletion as the nuclear excitation by electron capture in resonant transfer process taking into account the momentum distribution of the target electrons. Although our results only slightly shift the upper theoretical limit for the total ^{93m}Mo isomer depletion probability toward the experimental value, they show the importance of considering the Compton profile in the theoretical description, in particular for the L shell, for which the depletion probability increases by many orders of magnitude.

Demonstrating geometric phase acquisition in multi-path tunnel systems using a near-term quantum computer

Quantum computers have shown promise in simulating quantum many-body physics, even under the constraints that arise due to limitations in the number of qubits involved. Considering the effects of tunneling, backscattering and the accumulation of a geometric phase, we see the possibility of simulating weak anti-localization (WAL), in addition to the weak localization in a multi-path system. We show how a quantum simulator works through the construction of multiple scattering centers in closed paths and tunnel barriers yielding a large return probability (Pr) for electrons. A combination of inter- and intra-layer tunneling in a double-path circuit creates a phase reversal and subsequently the WAL effect. Incorporation of such arrangements of tunnel barriers can add a geometric phase and demonstrate Aharonov–Bohm-type Φ0 and Φ0/2 oscillations in a ring and a tube, respectively. Finally, the angle dependence of Pr shows a phase reversal in the two-path circuit caused by the inter-path resonance.

War and peace in the age of corona: an analysis of support for repressive state policies in divided societies

ABSTRACT Unlike various natural disasters that some studies have highlighted as potential contributors to peace, the threat posed by the COVID-19 pandemic is neither short-term nor regionally confined. Thus, rather than invoking a compassionate response, the pandemic is likely to aggravate pre-existing divisions and create an environment that accentuates survival over compassion. Building on a large probability survey data gathered in May 2020 in Turkey, we demonstrate that the pandemic has disproportionally affected minority Kurds and exacerbated pre-existing inequalities and social polarization. Results from a series of regression analyses show growing dissatisfaction with the Turkish government’s handling of the pandemic. However, this effect fails to translate into the sense of solidarity between majority Turks and minority Kurds necessary to build a peaceful society. Support for the government’s approach to the Kurdish opposition seems to be conditioned by social categorization and increasingly partisan political identities in Turkey.

To meat, or not to meat: A longitudinal investigation of transitioning to and from plant-based diets

Concerns over potential negative effects of excessive meat consumption on both the environment and personal health, coupled with long-standing debates over animal rights, have motivated research on the prevalence and predictors of plant-based versus meat-based diets. Yet few studies have examined longitudinal trends in dietary behaviours using large national samples. We address this gap by examining the prevalence, predictors, and annual change in the self-reported dietary behaviour of a large national probability sample of New Zealand adults (categorised as omnivore, vegetarian, or vegan; Ns = 12,259–50,964). Consistent with our pre-registered hypotheses, omnivore was the most prevalent dietary category (94.1%). Moreover, higher levels of conservative ideologies (i.e., political conservatism, Right-Wing Authoritarianism, and Social Dominance Orientation), lower subjective health, lower environmental efficacy, and lower disgust sensitivity predicted having an omnivore (vs. vegetarian or vegan) diet. Longitudinal analyses further revealed that the probability of shifting from an omnivore diet to a vegetarian or vegan diet over a one-year period was low, and that veganism was the least stable dietary category. Both gender (men) and political conservatism predicted lower probabilities of transitioning from meat to no-meat diets over time.

Contraceptive Care Disparities Among Sexual Orientation Identity and Racial/Ethnic Subgroups of U.S. Women: A National Probability Sample Study.

Background: Sexual minority women may use contraception for various reasons but face notable barriers to contraceptive care, including stigma and discrimination. However, studies examining sexual orientation disparities in contraceptive care have largely relied on nonprobability samples of predominately White women and may thus not be generalizable to U.S. women overall or Black and Latina women in particular. Materials and Methods: Using data from the 2006 to 2017 National Survey of Family Growth, a large national probability sample of U.S. women 15-44 years of age (N = 25,473), we used multivariable logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios for receiving a contraceptive method or prescription and contraceptive counseling from a health care provider in the past year among sexual orientation identity and racial/ethnic subgroups of heterosexual, bisexual, and lesbian White, Black, and Latina women relative to White heterosexual women. Results: Among women overall, 33.9% had received contraception and 18.3% had obtained contraceptive counseling. Black (odds ratio [OR] = 0.73, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.65-0.82) and Latina (OR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.64-0.82) heterosexual women, White (OR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.65-0.99) and Black (OR = 0.43, 95% CI: 0.32-0.58) bisexual women, and White (OR = 0.23, 95% CI: 0.13-0.43), Black (OR = 0.19, 95% CI: 0.09-0.40), and Latina (OR = 0.08, 95% CI: 0.03-0.22) lesbian women had significantly lower adjusted odds of receiving contraception compared with White heterosexual women. White (OR = 0.36, 95% CI: 0.15-0.85), Black (OR = 0.42, 95% CI: 0.18-0.98), and Latina (OR = 0.22, 95% CI: 0.09-0.53) lesbian women also had significantly lower adjusted odds of obtaining contraceptive counseling relative to White heterosexual women. Conclusions: Policies, programs, and practices that facilitate access to person-centered contraceptive care among marginalized sexual orientation identity and racial/ethnic subgroups of U.S. women are needed to promote reproductive health equity.