Large Growth Research Articles

Entire hypergeometric approximants for the ground state energy perturbation series of the quartic, sextic and octic anharmonic oscillators

In resumming a divergent series, one is frequently confronted with situations where predictions from traditional resummation techniques might not accurate when considering strong-coupling values. Besides, in literature, we barely can find a resummation algorithm for which the convergence is faster for strongly-divergent ( Gevrey−k , k>1) series than a divergent one ( Gevrey−1 ). In this work, we use appropriate hypergeometric functions to approximate a divergent series ( n! large order growth factor) and strongly-divergent series ( (2n)! and (3n)! large order growth factors). We found that the convergence of the predicted non-perturbative parameters to their exact values is faster for the challenging Gevrey−3 than the Gevrey−2 series which in turn is faster than the divergent Gevrey−1 series. To explain such interesting feature, we suggest a type of analytic continuation where the parametrized divergent hypergeometric series is represented as a finite sum over entire hypergeometric functions. The algorithm is applied to sum the weak-coupling series of the ground state energy of the quartic (divergent), sextic (Gevrey−2) and Octic (Gevrey−3) anharmonic oscillators. Accurate results are obtained for the ground state energy as well as the predicted non-perturbative parameters. While traditional resummation techniques fail to give reliable results for large coupling values, our algorithm gives the expected limit as the coupling goes to infinity.

Muscle transcriptome analysis provides new insights into the growth gap between fast- and slow-growing Sinocyclocheilus grahami.

Sinocyclocheilus grahami is an economically valuable and famous fish in Yunnan Province, China. However, given its slow growth (40g/2 years) and large growth differences among individuals, its growth performance needs to be improved for sustainable future use, in which molecular breeding technology can play an important role. In the current study, we conducted muscle transcriptomic analysis to investigate the growth gaps among individuals and the mechanism underlying growth within 14 fast- and 14 slow-growth S. grahami. In total, 1,647 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were obtained, including 947 up-regulated and 700 down-regulated DEGs in fast-growth group. Most DEGs were significantly enriched in ECM-receptor interaction, starch and sucrose metabolism, glycolysis/gluconeogenesis, pyruvate metabolism, amino acids biosynthesis and metabolism, peroxisome, and PPAR signaling pathway. Some genes related to glycogen degradation, glucose transport, and glycolysis (e.g., adipoq, prkag1, slc2a1, agl, pygm, pgm1, pfkm, gapdh, aldoa, pgk1, pgam2, bpgm, and eno3) were up-regulated, while some genes related to fatty acid degradation and transport (e.g., acox1, acaa1, fabp1b.1, slc27a1, and slc27a2) and amino acid metabolism (e.g., agxt, shmt1, glula, and cth) were down-regulated in the fast-growth group. Weighted gene co-expression network analysis identified col1a1, col1a2, col5a1, col6a2, col10a1, col26a1, bglap, and krt15 as crucial genes for S. grahami growth. Several genes related to bone and muscle growth (e.g., bmp2, bmp3, tgfb1, tgfb2, gdf10, and myog) were also up-regulated in the fast-growth group. These results suggest that fast-growth fish may uptake adequate energy (e.g., glucose, fatty acid, and amino acids) from fodder, with excess energy substances used to synthesize collagen to accelerate bone and muscle growth after normal life activities are maintained. Moreover, energy uptake may be the root cause, while collagen synthesis may be the direct reason for the growth gap between fast- and slow-growth fish. Hence, improving food intake and collagen synthesis may be crucial for accelerating S. grahami growth, and further research is required to fully understand and confirm these associations.

Distance and weightage-based identification of most critical and vulnerable locations of surface water pollution in Kabul river tributaries

Water plays a key role in the economic growth of an agricultural country. Pakistan is a farming country that uses almost 90% of its water resources for agriculture. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province of Pakistan has extensive surface water resources. In addition to using groundwater resources for irrigation, large parts of its flat plains are irrigated with the Kabul River surface water. Due to large population growth and unregulated small/local scale industries in the region, surface water quality deteriorates with time, which affects people's health when polluted surface water is used for irrigation purposes. This research investigates the surface water quality of Kabul River's different tributaries. It identifies the most critical and vulnerable locations regarding water quality using the weightage-based identification method and distance-based iteration method, respectively. The Bara River exhibited the most critical location, surpassing the threshold values by a considerable margin in at least seven water quality parameters. The maximum seven critical values determined against the Bara River using the weightage-based method, i.e., 17.5, 5.95, 7.35, 27.65, 1.75, 0.35, and 10.45 for total alkalinity, sodium, total hardness, magnesium, total suspended solids, biological oxygen demand (BOD), and turbidity. The Khairabad station, where the Kabul River meets the Indus River, was identified as vulnerable due to elevated levels of total suspended solids, hardness, sulfate, sodium, and magnesium using distance-based methods. The locations, i.e. Adezai, Jindi, Pabbi, and Warsak Dam, appeared critical and vulnerable due to the prevalence of small-scale industries on their bank and high population densities. All the results are finally compared with the interpolated values over the entire region using Kriging interpolation to identify critical and vulnerable areas accurately. The results from the distance and weightage-based methods aligned with the physical reality on the ground further validate the results. The critical and vulnerable locations required immediate attention and preventive measures to address the deteriorating water quality parameters by installing monitoring stations and treatment plants to stop further contamination of the particular parameter.

Pulled, pushed or failed: the demographic impact of a gene drive can change the nature of its spatial spread.

Understanding the temporal spread of gene drive alleles-alleles that bias their own transmission-through modeling is essential before any field experiments. In this paper, we present a deterministic reaction-diffusion model describing the interplay between demographic and allelic dynamics, in a one-dimensional spatial context. We focused on the traveling wave solutions, and more specifically, on the speed of gene drive invasion (if successful). We considered various timings of gene conversion (in the zygote or in the germline) and different probabilities of gene conversion (instead of assuming 100[Formula: see text] conversion as done in a previous work). We compared the types of propagation when the intrinsic growth rate of the population takes extreme values, either very large or very low. When it is infinitely large, the wave can be either successful or not, and, if successful, it can be either pulled or pushed, in agreement with previous studies (extended here to the case of partial conversion). In contrast, it cannot be pushed when the intrinsic growth rate is vanishing. In this case, analytical results are obtained through an insightful connection with an epidemiological SI model. We conducted extensive numerical simulations to bridge the gap between the two regimes of large and low growth rate. We conjecture that, if it is pulled in the two extreme regimes, then the wave is always pulled, and the wave speed is independent of the growth rate. This occurs for instance when the fitness cost is small enough, or when there is stable coexistence of the drive and the wild-type in the population after successful drive invasion. Our model helps delineate the conditions under which demographic dynamics can affect the spread of a gene drive.

Trends in Cannabis and Alcohol Use by Sexual Identity in the 2015-2019 National Survey on Drug Use and Health.

Sexual minority individuals are at substantially elevated risk for both cannabis use disorder (CUD) and alcohol use disorder (AUD). Although recent increases in the legalization of cannabis have been linked to increases in cannabis use among the general population, few studies have examined if changes in cannabis use and CUD vary by sexual identity. The purpose of the current study was to examine sexual identity differences in trends for CUD and compare them to trends for AUD. We used data from 2015-2019 National Survey on Drug Use and Health to examine annual prevalence and year-specific disparities in cannabis use, CUD, heavy episodic drinking, and AUD. We also examined sex-specific sexual identity differences in linear trends for these substance use outcomes over this 5-year period. All groups except lesbian females experienced significant increases in cannabis use rates from 2015 to 2019. Heterosexual males, heterosexual females, and bisexual females also experienced significant increases in CUD rates. In contrast, no group exhibited significant increases in heavy episodic drinking or AUD rates. Bisexual women exhibited some of the largest year-specific disparities in cannabis use and CUD as well as the largest growth in disparities across time. The few changes in heavy episodic drinking and AUD alongside numerous changes in cannabis use and CUD suggest that changes in cannabis use may be attributable to legalization of cannabis use in many states during this period. Given profound disparities and increasing rates of CUD affecting bisexual females, further research is needed to identify factors that may explain their disproportionate burden.

Experimental optimization of various heat sinks using passive thermal management system

Organic phase change materials are extensively researched for passive cooling of electronic components due to the high heat of fusion, however, owing to the issue of thermal conductivity, it is difficult to improve the thermal performance of electronic components. However, the effective thermal performance of modern electronic devices is becoming popular due to thermal constraints of the circuit's non-uniform temperature distribution and high heating power generation. Thus, nanomaterials incorporated into phase change materials (PCMs) to improve thermal conductivity, which aids in heat removal and sustains significant heat sink operational performance for extended periods of time. In current research work, at heating powers of (10–30 W), the thermal performance outcome of three heat sink -configurations such as unfinned heat sink, circular pin-finned heat sink and metallic foam integrated heat sink were investigated with several alumina nanomaterials mass concentrations (0.15, 0.20 and 0.25 wt%) incorporated in phase change materials (for example RT-70HC). All three heat sinks revealed lower base temperature with the addition of alumina NePCM (αRT-70HC) phase change materials in their internal cavity compared to the empty unfinned heat sink. The findings showed good performance of metallic foam integrated heat sink in lowering the temperature & increasing safe functional time at two distinct temperatures. The largest decrease in temperature was found to be 35.76% and the largest growth in maximum functional time was 400% for metallic foam integrated heat sink. Therefore, using alumina nanomaterials in phase change material is recommended to optimize the thermal performance of the passive cooling techniques.

Single selenium atom to control nucleic acid conformation and large crystal growth

Single selenium atom to control nucleic acid conformation and large crystal growth

Filaments of uniform quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity in pure strain

Three-dimensional filaments of quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity are generic features of atmospheric and oceanic flows. They are often generated during the strong interactions between three-dimensional quasi-geostrophic vortices. They contribute to a direct cascade of enstrophy in spectral space. These filaments correspond to shear zones. Therefore they may be sensitive to shear instabilities akin to the Kelvin–Helmholtz instability of the classical two-dimensional vorticity strip. They are, however, often subjected to a straining flow induced by the surrounding vortices. This straining flow affects their robustness. This paper focuses on a simplified model of this situation. We consider the effect of a pure strain on a three-dimensional filament of uniform quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity. We first consider a quasi-static situation where the strain, assumed small, only affects the cross-sectional shape of the filament, but not the velocity field. We address the linear stability of the filament in that context and also show examples of the filament's nonlinear evolution. We then consider the linearised dynamics of the filament in pure strain. In particular we focus on the maximum perturbation amplification observed in the filament. We conclude that small to moderate strain rates are efficient at preventing a large perturbation growth. Nonlinear effects can nevertheless leads to the roll-up of weakly strained filaments.

Satellite data reveal how Sudd wetland dynamics are linked with globally-significant methane emissions

Recent work has highlighted the large role of methane emissions from the Sudd wetland and surrounding ecosystems on the global atmospheric growth rate of methane since 2010. These emissions are driven by high rainfall over basin catchments linked with the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole. We reconstruct flood inundation for the Sudd wetland over a 38-year period at a spatial resolution of 30 m using a new satellite Earth Observation (EO) wetland mapping tool. We reveal considerable changes in the wet season extent of the wetland, including an increase >300% since 2019 compared to the median 1984–2022 extent. We report major increases in flood extent within grassland-dominated floodplains outside of the area currently defined Sudd wetland region. These year-to-year changes in wetland extent are corroborated with total water storage anomalies inferred from satellite data (Pearson correlation R = 0.92), Lake Victoria levels (R = 0.73), and anomalies in reported annual mean global methane growth rates since 2009 (R = 0.88). Our analysis shows that flood water inundation is dominated by inundated vegetation and aquatic vegetation, accounting for an average of 40% and 50% of total extent, respectively, compared to open water that accounted for just 9% of inundation in a typical year. This is consistent with recent studies that report wetland methane emissions are focused on areas with inundated vegetation. Our findings also support recent studies that highlight the significant role of the Sudd wetland in driving anomalously large global atmospheric annual growth rates, 2020–2022. By capturing high resolution information on inundated vegetation, our EO wetland mapping tool has significant potential for improved wetland emission estimates of methane. Vascular plants common in the Sudd wetland, e.g. macrophytes including Phragmites Australis and Cyperus Papyrus, seem to play a key role in methane emissions and we recommend they should be the focus of future research.

Seasonally Alternate Roles of the North Pacific Oscillation and the South Pacific Oscillation in Tropical Pacific Zonal Wind and ENSO

Abstract The western-central equatorial Pacific (WCEP) zonal wind affects El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by involving a series of multiscale air–sea interactions. Its interannual variation contributes the most to ENSO amplitude. Thus, understanding the predictability of the WCEP interannual wind is of great importance for better predictions of ENSO. Here, we show that the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the South Pacific Oscillation (SPO) alternate in fueling this interannual wind from late boreal winter to austral winter in the presence of background trade winds in different hemispheres. During the boreal winter–spring, the NPO registers footprints in the tropics by benefiting from the Pacific meridional mode and modulating the northwestern Pacific intertropical convergence zone (NITCZ). However, as austral winter approaches, the SPO takes over the role of the NPO in maintaining the anomalous NITCZ. Moreover, the interannual wind is further driven to the east in the positive phase of the SPO, by intensified central-eastern equatorial Pacific convection resulting from tropical–extratropical heat flux adjustments. A reconstructed WCEP interannual wind index involving only the NPO and the SPO possesses a long lead time for ENSO prediction of nearly one year. These two extratropical boosters enhance the viability of equatorial Pacific zonal wind anomalies associated with the large growth rate of ENSO, and the one in the winter hemisphere seems to be more efficient in forcing the tropics. Our result further indicates that the NPO benefits a long-lead prediction of the WCEP interannual wind and ENSO, while the SPO is the dominant extratropical predictor of ENSO amplitude. Significance Statement ENSO is closely linked to the interannual variability of equatorial Pacific zonal wind, and ENSO prediction is impeded by the weak predictability of the wind. We have found that the North Pacific Oscillation and the South Pacific Oscillation take turns in affecting the interannual variability of the zonal wind from the late boreal winter to austral winter, and the winter hemisphere extratropical booster is more efficient in modulating tropical convection and the associated surface winds. An estimated zonal wind index constructed by the two extratropical precursors possesses a long lead time for ENSO prediction. Our result provides useful information for better predicting ENSO by further considering winter hemisphere extratropical climate variability.

사하라이남 아프리카 도시화의 특징

Africa is the fastest urbanizing continent in the world. The population of Africa is expected to double by 2050 and this growth is due in large part to the large urban population growth. It is generally accepted that urbanization results from rural exodus, but as far as Africa is concerned, it is urban fertility that plays an important role. Moreover, this high fertility also applies in rural regions, unlike on other continents. This can be seen in particular in the two sub-Saharan countries where the fertility rate is very high: Nigeria and Ethiopia. Africa is thus exposed to the challenges of rapid population growth and rapid urbanization. And this leads to characteristics specific to this continent.
 The purpose of this article is to show the particularities of the urbanization of Africa that are specific to it. No continent in the world has experienced it at such speed. We will focus particularly on certain sub-Saharan countries which are characterized by their rapid increase in population. Such a study will make it possible on the one hand, to better prepare what will be necessary in the futur and on the other hand, to make known the advantage as well as the obstacles that foreign companies could face.

Functional analysis of Rickettsia monacensis strain humboldt folA dihydrofolate reductase gene via complementation assay

Nutritive symbiosis between bacteria and ticks is observed across a range of ecological contexts; however, little characterization on the molecular components responsible for this symbiosis has been done. Previous studies in our lab demonstrated that Rickettsia monacensis str. Humboldt (strain Humboldt) can synthesize folate de novo via the folate biosynthesis pathway involving folA, folC, folE, folKP, and ptpS genes. In this study, expression of the strain Humboldt folA gene within a folA mutant Escherichia coli construct was used to functionally characterize the strain Humboldt folA folate gene in vivo. The strain Humboldt folA folate gene was subcloned into a TransBac vector and transformed into a folA mutant E. coli construct. The mutant containing strain Humboldt folA subclone and a pFE604 clone of the knocked-out folA gene was cured of pFE604. Curing of the folA mutant E. coli construct was successful using acridine orange and 43.5 °C incubation temperature. The plasmid curing assay showed curing efficiency of the folA mutant at 100%. Functional complementation was assessed by growth phenotype on minimal media with and without IPTG between strain Humboldt folA and E. coli folA. Large and homogenous wild-type colony growth was observed for both strain Humboldt and E. coli folA on minimal media with 0.1 mM IPTG, wild-type growth for strain Humboldt folA and pin-point growth for E. coli folA on 0.01 mM IPTG, and pin-point growth without IPTG for both strain Humboldt and E. coli folA. This study provides evidence substantiating the in vivo functionality of strain Humboldt folA in producing functional gene products for folate biosynthesis.

FINE-GRAINED SENTIMENT ANALYSIS IN SOCIAL MEDIA USING GATED RECURRENT UNIT WITH SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE

Social media platforms are widely used to share opinions, leading to a large growth of text data on the internet. This data can be a key source of up-to-date and inclusive information by conducting sentiment analysis. Typically, sentiment analysis research classifies binary based on the polar values generated. However, this has its limitations, such as classifying sentences containing positive and negative expressions, leading to incorrect predictions. Fine-grained sentiment analysis provides more precise results by associating values with more than two classification targets. The objective of this study is to carry out sentiment analysis at a fine-grained level related to public policy in Indonesia using the GRU-SVM model with feature extraction and expansion techniques. However, sentiment analysis research still faces challenges in NLP. Deep learning have successfully overcome the challenges of traditional machine learning models in terms of efficiency and performance. This study proposes GRU-SVM model. GRU is used because it can adaptively control dependencies, making it more efficient in memory usage, while SVM is used as it is state-of-the-art in sentiment analysis. Result of the study show that the selection of word representation techniques, the addition of feature extraction techniques, datasets, data ratios, and feature expansion are crucial in the model testing process. The GRU-SVM model achieved the best performance with an accuracy of 96.02%. Overall, the results of this study demonstrate that the GRU-SVM method is effective in analyzing sentiments in Indonesian tweets.

Microwave Spectroscopy Investigation of Carasau Bread Doughs: Effects of Composition up to 8.5 GHz.

Carasau bread is a flat bread, typical of Sardinia (Italy). The market of this food product has a large growth potential, and its industry is experiencing a revolution, characterized by digitalization and automation. To monitor the quality of this food product at different manufacturing stages, microwave sensors and devices could be a cost-effective solution. In this framework, knowledge of the microwave response of Carasau dough is required. Thus far, the analysis of the microwave response of Carasau doughs through dielectric spectroscopy has been limited to the dynamics of fermentation. In this work, we aim to perform complex dielectric permittivity measurements up to 8.5 GHz, investigating and modeling the role of water amount, salt and yeast concentrations on the spectra of this food product. A third-order Cole-Cole model was used to interpret the microwave response of the different samples, resulting in a maximum error of 1.58% and 1.60% for the real and imaginary parts of permittivity, respectively. Thermogravimetric analysis was also performed to support the microwave spectroscopy investigation. We found that dielectric properties of Carasau bread doughs strongly depend on the water content. The analysis highlighted that an increase in water quantity tends to increase the bounded water fraction at the expense of the free water fraction. In particular, the free water amount in the dough is not related to the broadening parameter γ2 of the second pole, whereas the bound water weight fraction is more evident in the γ2 and σdc parameters. An increase in electrical conductivity was observed for increasing water content. The microwave spectrum of the real part of the complex permittivity is slightly affected by composition, while large variation in the imaginary part of the complex dielectric permittivity can be identified, especially for frequencies below 4 GHz. The methodology and data proposed and reported in this work can be used to design a microwave sensor for retrieving the composition of Carasau bread doughs through their dielectric signature.

Improvement of Cadres' Skills and Knowledge to Provide Comprehensive Health Services for the Elderly

Highlights: Due to the increasing elderly population in Indonesia, this study must address the knowledge and skill gaps among health cadres in a number of Integrated Health Posts for the Elderly (Pos Layanan Terpadu Lanjut Usia/ Posyandu Lansia). Through this study, the health cadres increased their knowledge and skills, enabling them to provide comprehensive health services for the elderly. Abstract Numerous issues have arisen as a result of the large size and rapid growth of the elderly population, attesting to the need for serious efforts from all sectors to enhance their welfare. However, the health cadres at the Integrated Health Post for the Elderly (Pos Layanan Terpadu Lanjut Usia/ Posyandu Lansia) lacked the training that would have equipped them with the necessary knowledge and skills to carry out their duties. This study aimed to evaluate the significance of training for enhancing the cadres' knowledge and skills in providing comprehensive health services for the elderly. This study was quasi-experimental research with a pre-test and post-test design. The data analysis was performed using the Shapiro-Wilk test (p>0.05) and the Wilcoxon test (p<0.05). A total of 30 health cadres at Songgon Community Health Center were measured for their levels of knowledge and skills before and after the training. The training included filling out health evaluation charts, providing leaflets containing health counseling materials for the elderly, practicing exercise for the elderly, and singing an elderly marching song. Before filling out the health evaluation chart, the cadres had to measure the elderly's degree of independence as well as their mental, emotional, and nutritional status. The cadres also had to measure the weight, height, and blood pressure of the elderly. Prior to training, the cadres' knowledge of hospitalization referrals, independence, and physical exercise for the elderly was limited. The cadres' skills in filling out health evaluation charts, assessing mental, emotional, and nutritional status, measuring blood pressure, and instructing physical exercise were also inadequate. There was a significant difference in the knowledge and skills of the health cadres before and after training (p<0.05). In conclusion, there was an improvement in the health cadres' knowledge and skills regarding comprehensive health services for the elderly at the Posyandu Lansia.

Insights into Perovskite Film Formation Using the Hybrid Evaporation/Spin-Coating Route: An In Situ XRD Study

The hybrid evaporation/spin-coating route has been widely used for fabrication of highly efficient fully textured perovskite silicon tandem solar cells and is a promising route for upscaling. Nevertheless, fundamental aspects of the fabrication process such as the kinetics of perovskite crystallization and the influence of the environmental conditions remain uncertain. In this work, we investigate the individual stages of tandem-relevant 1.66 eV bandgap perovskite formation and map the structural evolution from the precursor to the perovskite phase until the degradation phase. We find that the kinetics of these transitions can be tuned by varying the humidity or the temperature during the annealing treatment. Specifically, increasing the relative humidity up to 50% elevates the reaction rate and results in improved perovskite quality. This is directly reflected in the solar cell power conversion efficiency with a 3%abs increment on average. While high annealing temperatures are found to promote large grain size growth and enhanced crystallinity, we observe that above 150 °C the remnant PbI2 precursor compromises film quality. Furthermore, the perovskite formation kinetics is fitted using the Johnson–Mehl–Avrami–Kolmogorov model. The Avrami constant is found in the range 0.66–0.87, indicating a diffusion-controlled one-dimensional growth process with an associated activation energy of 54.49 kJ/mol. Using in situ XRD, this work gives insights on key process parameters to ensure reproducible synthesis of high-quality perovskite films.

Building back better: Granular energy technologies in green recovery funding programs

Building back better: Granular energy technologies in green recovery funding programs

The effect of Ar plasma on the space-confined growth of MoS2 with low-pressure chemical vapor deposition

Plasma assisted low-pressure chemical vapor deposition has previously been shown to allow for large area growth of a variety of 2D materials, such as graphene and boron nitride. However, it also presented with degradation of electronic properties owing to decreases in grain sizes and increased inclusion of defects. In this work, we report on the influence of an Ar plasma during the growth of MoS2. We produce hexagonal and triangular single crystal 2D MoS2 with sizes up to 10 µm, similar to that achieved without plasma present. Raman analysis also exhibits no significant changes with plasma. However, the plasma does induce changes to the morphology of the MoS2 crystals, leading to non-uniform edge structures with the degree of non-uniformity scaling with plasma power. Comparing the overall morphology at different temperatures and amounts of precursor material suggests that plasma increases the availability of Mo for growth, which is further evidenced by increased growth zones. Therefore, the use of an Ar plasma may provide a means to reduce required precursor quantities without significantly compromising the overall structure of the resulting MoS2 crystals.

Technical Change and Superstar Effects: Evidence from the Rollout of Television

Technical change that extends market scale can generate winner-take-all dynamics, with large income growth among top earners. I test this “superstar model” in the entertainer labor market, where the historic rollout of television creates a natural experiment in scale-related technological change. The resulting inequality changes are consistent with superstar theory: the launch of a local TV station skews the entertainer wage distribution sharply to the right, with the biggest impact at the very top of the distribution, while negatively impacting workers below the star level. The findings provide evidence of superstar effects and distinguish such effects from popular alternative models. (JEL D31, J31, J44, L82, L88, O33)

Beyond Just Talking Strategy: Using Gaming Simulations to Catalyze Airline Managers' Buy-in to Novel Strategies that Can Shape or Adapt to Profit Cyclicality.

This empirical qualitative study explores the role of gaming simulations in catalyzing changes to organization-wide management's perspectives on a novel strategy for aircraft orders and retirements. A large US airline developed the new strategy to tackle the pervasive problem of profit cyclicality, driving poor average profit performance across the cycle. Based on the dynamic model used to develop the strategy with senior management, a gaming simulation workshop was designed and delivered in groups of 20 to over 200 organization-wide managers. They tested various strategies for aircraft orders and retirements, under scenarios for market demand and conduct for competitors and regulators. A qualitative methodology was used to capture the workshop participants' perspectives on the efficacy of various capacity strategies, before, during and after the workshop. The findings are that managers experiment risk-free with innovations in strategies for capacity orders and retirements and they do indeed discover for themselves that there are counterintuitive alternatives that can achieve large and stable profitable growth. These strategies depend on competitors (role-played by workshops participants in the simulation) cooperating to create a win-win equilibrium. Performance far exceeds the industry benchmark profit cycle. The contribution is the empirical evidence of the effectiveness of gaming simulations to catalyze managers' shared beliefs and buy-in to a new strategy or business model. There are implications for practitioners in airlines and other sectors on the use of a gaming simulation workshop toolset, to help create such buy-in for an emerging strategy or business model. Protocols for best practice gaming simulation workshop design are discussed.