Large Forest Research Articles

Drivers and Trends in the Size and Severity of Forest Fires Endangering WUI Areas: A Regional Case Study

This study explored, for the first time, the drivers shaping large fire size and high severity of forest fires classified as level-2 in Spain, which pose a great danger to the wildland–urban interface. Specifically, we examined how bottom-up (fuel type and topography) and top-down (fire weather) controls shaped level-2 fire behavior through a Random Forest classifier at the regional scale in Galicia (NW Spain). We selected for this purpose 93 level-2 forest fires. The accuracy of the RF fire size and severity classifications was remarkably high (>80%). Fire weather overwhelmed bottom-up controls in controlling the fire size of level-2 forest fires. The likelihood of large level-2 forest fires increased sharply with the fire weather index, but plateaued at values above 40. Fire size strongly responded to minimum relative humidity at values below 30%. The most important variables explaining fire severity in level-2 forest fires were the same as in the fire size, as well as the pre-fire shrubland fraction. The high-fire-severity likelihood of level-2 forest fires increased exponentially for shrubland fractions in the landscape above 50%. Our results suggest that level-2 forest fires will pose an increasing danger to people and their property under predicted scenarios of extreme weather conditions.

Impacts of Urban Morphology on Seasonal Land Surface Temperatures: Comparing Grid- and Block-Based Approaches

Climate change is expected to result in increased occurrences of extreme weather events such as heat waves and cold spells. Urban planning responses are crucial for improving the capacity of cities and communities to deal with significant temperature variations across seasons. This study aims to investigate the relationship between urban temperature fluctuations and urban morphology throughout the four seasons. Through quadrant and statistical analyses, built-environment factors are identified that moderate or exacerbate seasonal land surface temperatures (LSTs). The focus is on Seoul, South Korea, as a case study, and seasonal LST values are calculated at both the grid (100 m × 100 m) and street block levels, incorporating factors such as vegetation density, land use patterns, albedo, two- and three-dimensional building forms, and gravity indices for large forests and water bodies. The quadrant analysis reveals a spatial segregation between areas demonstrating high LST adaptability (cooler summers and warmer winters) and those displaying LST vulnerability (hotter summers and colder winters), with significant differences in vegetation and building forms. Spatial regression analyses demonstrate that higher vegetation density and proximity to water bodies play key roles in moderating LSTs, leading to cooler summers and warmer winters. Building characteristics have a constant impact on LSTs across all seasons: horizontal expansion increases the LST, while vertical expansion reduces the LST. These findings are consistent for both grid- and block-level analyses. This study emphasizes the flexible role of the natural environment in moderating temperatures.

Diameter explains transient allocation of non-photosynthetic organs in trees

A central issue in plant ecology is exploring universal rules and the mechanisms under which photosynthetic energies are allocated to different organ parts. Until recently, prevalent studies focused on testing either optimal allocation theory or allometric allocation theory in predicting plant biomass partitioning patterns. However, paying much attention to the stable state prevents the development of new biomass allocation theories in transient time scales. Here, based on theories in transients and the allometric relationships in plant traits, I develop general theoretical models to study the transient perturbations of plant biomass allocated to non-photosynthetic organ parts. With both simulation and empirical approaches, I investigate the effect of plant stem diameter at breast height (DBH) on the variation of biomass allocation patterns during plant ontogeny. Results show that increases in DBH can mitigate the magnitude of the perturbations of plant biomass and biomass fractions allocated to both plant stem and root parts. The findings are robust when either deterministic or stochastic models are conducted. Moreover, empirical analyses from a large forest database in Eurasia consistently support the predictions from the theoretical frameworks. In this paper, I draw attention to the transient allocation pattern of plant biomass for non-photosynthetic organs, and I find the significant role of DBH. This work has important implications in both theoretical breakthroughs and practical applications. It not only provides the foundation to test new biomass allocation hypotheses but also directs agricultural and forest management to achieve stabilized yields.

Long-distance social relationships can both undercut and promote local natural resource management.

The management of large common-pool resources, like fisheries and forests, is more difficult when more people and more communities can access them-a particular problem given increased population sizes, higher mobility and globalized trade in the Anthropocene. Social relationships spanning communities, such as kin relationships, business or trade relationships and friendships, can make management even more challenging by facilitating and transmitting norms of overharvesting. However, these long-distance relationships can also bolster management by transmitting norms for sustainability, promoting interdependence and laying the groundwork for nested management systems. Here, we review the negative and positive impacts of long-distance relationships on local natural resource management (NRM), providing illustrative examples from our field research on forest and fisheries management in Tanzania. Drawing on the evolutionary literature, the development literature and our field data, we offer suggestions for how development partners can avoid the pitfalls of long-distance relationships and how they can use or even deliberately foster long-distance relationships to promote successful local NRM. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Assessment of variability of peat physicochemical properties, subsidence and their interactions within Selangor forests

AbstractTropical peat swamp forests are carbon‐rich ecosystems both above‐ and belowground, which play a major role in the climate balance of the earth. The majority of the world's tropical peat forest cover is located in Southeast Asia and is increasingly threatened by anthropogenic disturbances. Despite their importance for biodiversity conservation and climatic balance of the earth, pristine peatlands are almost extinct in many parts of Southeast Asia. Peninsular Malaysia is one such region, where there are no undisturbed peatlands left in the west coast. We studied the largest peat forest area in the west coast of Malaysia, located in the state of Selangor. We evaluated variability of peat subsidence (for 1 year), peat physicochemical properties and macronutrient contents between forest regions and between different depths (not for subsidence) covering the top 50 cm, and the complex interactions between them. We found that there was significant peat subsidence in all the studied regions, however, there was no significant difference in subsidence between different forest regions. Physicochemical properties such as peat moisture, pH and carbon (C) content and all macronutrient contents except phosphorus (P), either varied between regions, or showed significant interactions between region and depth in Selangor peat forests. All the measured peat physicochemical properties varied with depth. Among macronutrients, only nitrogen (N), P and calcium (Ca) showed significant change with depth, while there were no changes with depth for sulphur (S), potassium (K) and magnesium (Mg) contents. These changes in each peat physicochemical property and macronutrient contents correlated with changes in other peat physicochemical properties and nutrient contents; however, there is a need for controlled experiments to further understand these significant interactions. The findings show continued carbon loss in secondary peat swamp forests through subsidence, indicating the long‐term impact of selective logging and associated historical drainage. The significant variability of peat physicochemical properties and macronutrient contents with region and depth, also show the need for intensive sampling to characterise large secondary peat swamp forests.

Functional traits patterns along an altitudinal gradient in a large tropical forest region

Understanding the link between functional traits and environmental gradients can provide important information to face global change. Here, we assessed how environmental variables act on functional trait-based ecological strategies of the acquisitive-conservative continuum and dispersal syndromes in forests of the Rio Doce Basin in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Through literature and herbarium measurements, we gathered data on ten functional traits related to light interception, leaf economics spectrum, and reproductive ability from 1912 woody species across 79 localities. Relationships between community-weighted means of functional traits and an altitudinal gradient encompassing thermal and water availability variables were quantified using generalized linear models and principal component analysis. We found that in higher altitudes are predominant vegetative conservative functional strategies (smaller leaves and petioles) and reproductive acquisitive functional strategies (smaller fruits and seeds and abiotic dispersed species). The thermal variables mainly influenced vegetative functional traits, which showed a predominantly acquisitive strategy in warmer areas, where there are more favorable and stable conditions for rapid growth and resource uptake. The water variables had a pronounced impact on reproductive functional traits, particularly in terms of dispersal patterns. Water availability tends to impact the costs of fleshy fruits and seeds with higher energy content. The patterns found for the altitudinal gradient reflected a combination of thermal and water variables, which is congruent with the aggregative role of altitude, composed of multiple physical and climatic conditions. In conclusion, the abiotic factors are operating on a large landscape scale in the plant communities, exerting influence on functional traits along the altitudinal gradient in a tropical forest region.

Regional sets of diverse, specialized ground beetle and plant assemblages recolonise China’s restored temperate forest landscapes

Following the historic destruction of China’s forests, large protected forest landscapes have been reestablishment across the country in recent decades. Currently, the species assemblages inhabiting these landscapes remain widely unknown. Here, we aim to establish whether the new temperate forest landscapes in Eastern China, composed of plantation, secondary and remnant mature forest patches, are dominated by widely distributed habitat generalists, widely distributed habitat specialists, or by sets of highly localized forest habitat specialist species, using vascular plants and ground beetles as case studies. We sampled plants and ground beetles on 159 plots representing different forest types distributed across ten study regions. The Chord-normalized expected species shared (CNESS) dissimilarity for beetles and Jaccard dissimilarity for plants were calculated to establish species’ turnover patterns, while we used structural equation and multiple regression models for dissimilarity matrices to establish the relative importance of location, elevation and biotic interactions in explaining large-scale distribution patterns of species assemblages. Both taxa showed highly regionalized recruitment, with plant communities responding strongly to latitude, and to geographic location in general, while the composition of ground beetle communities appeared strongly governed by both the composition of the vegetation and study plot location. Both assemblages showed a distinct lack of widespread habitat generalists. Our results demonstrate for the first time that local assemblages of forest specialist species appear to have survived last century’s deforestation in unknown refugia before successfully re-colonizing China’s restored forest ecosystems. We argue that restored forest landscapes can play a significant role in the conservation of temperate China’s biodiversity at both local and regional scales.

Shiny Cowbird (Molothrus bonariensis) brood parasitism occurrence and impact increases with decreasing forest cover

ABSTRACT Cowbirds brood parasitism has a detrimental effect on the breeding success of their hosts. The occurrence of parasitism observed may be related to environmental features at landscape or nest-site scales. Such relationships have been assessed for the Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) in the large forests of the northern hemisphere. Here, we present a study conducted on the Shiny Cowbird (M. bonariensis) in native forests of the southern hemisphere in Argentina. These forests are characterised as semi-open woodlands, with forest fragments of variable sizes immersed in native grasslands. We aimed to evaluate the effect of Shiny Cowbird brood parasitism on the breeding success of a native passerine, the Masked Gnatcatcher (Polioptila dumicola), and to assess the relationship of its occurrence with environmental features at landscape and nest-site scales. During three breeding seasons (2015–2018) we monitored 207 gnatcatcher nests of which 70 were parasitised. Brood parasitism was the cause of nest failure in 60% of the parasitised nests. In addition, breeding success measured by apparent nest success, egg survival, hatching success and nestling survival were significantly lower for parasitised nests than for non-parasitised nests. Brood parasitism occurrence was negatively associated with forest cover, where nests located in sites with less forest cover experienced a higher occurrence of parasitism than those with greater cover. As these native semi-open forests face a continuous decline, our results add to the evidence of negative impacts of deforestation.

Sacred Groves as the Source of Local Medicinal Plants and Sites of Biodiversity Conservation in North 24 Parganas, West Bengal

A Sacred Grove (SG) is any grove of trees, shrubs and even herbs of special religious importance to a particular culture. SGs are consideredas distinct patches of vegetation (ranging in size from a small cluster of a few trees to a large forest stand spanning several hundredacres) which are venerated in the name of local deities or ancestral spirits, promoting conservation. Conservation of biodiversity insacred groves is a consequence of the sacred physical space of the sacred grove which is communally shared as commons and used toobserve crucial social ceremonies in indigenous societies. While documenting the sacred groves in the district of North 24 Parganas ofWest Bengal through a detailed field survey, plants of local medicinal importance were identified in these patches in which the localpeople traditionally conserved the medicinal plants since time immemorial. An extensive field survey to potential district areas anddocumentation of major flora, including their correct identification and their related Traditional Knowledge (TK) in each SG was done.More than 120 local medicinal plants were found and traditional knowledge associated with these plants was documented whichincluded Adhatoda vasica, Abroma agustum, Andrographis paniculata, Bacopa monnieri, Centella asiatica, Cocculus hirsutus, Gloriosasuperba, Tinospora cordifolia to name very few. Out of these purified aqueous extract of Cocculus hirsutus has also been reported inCOVID-19 treatment in many research papers. Traditional knowledge associated with these plants found in the sacred groves is a hiddentreasure from where further research, learning and dissemination of potential information can ensue. These SGs are examples of in-situconservation traditionally by local people and gene pool for various medicinal plants.

Potential prey and conservation implications of the Algerian Nuthatch Sitta ledanti (Vielliard 1976)

The Algerian Nuthatch ( Sitta ledanti), which is mentioned on the Red List of threatened species, is one of the first protected birds in Algeria. The species’ populations are distributed with low numbers in Babors’ Kabyliain northeastern Algeria. The diet composition of the species has been studied on a large scale in five large forests. The diet analysis method is based on the identification of the different prey items found in the fecal sacs of the nestlings. We divided the 89 identified prey into 81 insects, 7 arachnids and 1 gastropod, giving 88 arthropods and 1 mollusc. According to both the Cluster Dendrogram and the Costello graph, the Algerian Nuthatch becomes a specialist species while searching for prey to feed its nestlings. This supply of specific prey for nestlings has been observed in both evergreen (Atlas cedar or Algerian fir) and deciduous (Algerian or African oaks) forests. Only the relative abundances (RA) of each prey consumed, prey number per fecal sac, and prey diversity by forest type showed differences. The low proportion of gastropods found in the fecal sacs of Algerian Nuthatch nestlings may explain the low nutritional value of this prey or may also be due to its low abundance. The species’ nestlings consumed a lot of European Earwig ( Forficula auricularia) and White spotted rose beetle ( Oxythyrea funesta) which could be due to their high energy intake and abundance in the area near the nests. Repeated fires and other anthropogenic activity constitute direct threats to the species’ habitat, and its specialised diet on certain prey weakens the survival of this species with endangered conservation status.

Very Fast, Approximate Counterfactual Explanations for Decision Forests

We consider finding a counterfactual explanation for a classification or regression forest, such as a random forest. This requires solving an optimization problem to find the closest input instance to a given instance for which the forest outputs a desired value. Finding an exact solution has a cost that is exponential on the number of leaves in the forest. We propose a simple but very effective approach: we constrain the optimization to input space regions populated by actual data points. The problem reduces to a form of nearest-neighbor search using a certain distance on a certain dataset. This has two advantages: first, the solution can be found very quickly, scaling to large forests and high-dimensional data, and enabling interactive use. Second, the solution found is more likely to be realistic in that it is guided towards high-density areas of input space.

Natural and historical aspects of the environmental monitoring in the city of Lviv

Purpose. To study the natural-historical aspects of the organization of monitoring the components of the natural environment in the territory of the city of Lviv, to identify the peculiarities of its organiza-tion at different historical stages of the functioning of the urban system, to highlight the specifics of the organization of environmental monitoring in modern conditions. Results Regular meteorological observations with the help of instruments began in Lviv in 1811, and observations and descriptions of the city's vegetation were carried out in the 1950s. Ya. Lagner. In 1944, the Department of Hydrometeorological Service of the Carpathian Military District was organized in Lviv. It included: weather bureau, group of hydrological forecasts, group of restoration of the network of stations. At the beginning of 1946, on the basis of this department, a hydrometeorological office was creat-ed, which since 1959 functioned as a hydrometeorological observatory (HMO) with groups: meteorologi-cal, hydrological forecasts and agrometeorological. In 1964, the Lviv Aerological Station became part of the GMO under the authority of the Aerology Department. Old, historical Lviv was located in the middle of large forests, had many streams, brooks, as well as rich flora. Such diversity is determined by the geo-graphical location, the history of the formation of the relief and climatic conditions in previous geological periods. The study of the landscape-natural primary basis in comparison with the built-up areas leads to the demarcation of the urban environment based on belonging to a certain type of natural landscape and thereby determines different approaches to its transformation. Background observation points located at nature conservation facilities provide information about the state and changes in the natural environment that occur outside of human activity. A comparative analysis of similar indicators obtained in areas with different degrees of urban influence will make it possible to reveal the real state of anthropogenic changes, identify their causes, predict the further consequences of urbanization, as well as build models of such social and production systems that would be the least harmful to the environment. Conclusions. Environmental monitoring in the territory of the city of Lviv has a long history. Moni-toring the state of the atmospheric air, water environment, biodiversity was and remains an important component in the issue of the quality of the urban environment and does not lose its importance. Environ-mental monitoring must be considered as an integral part of the regional management system of nature management, which must perform the target functions of continuous observation and forecasting of the main socio-ecological processes for the purpose of their analysis, identification and identification of the main factors for the preparation and adoption of management decisions.

Popular but exclusive: How can lower socio-economic status groups win access to urban green spaces?

Territorial conflicts related to the use of urban green spaces typically result from conflicting preferences and institutions not being able to account for the equitable distribution of benefits. Our study focuses on the value conflicts and contestations around using an urban green space as a “social good” and the political processes of defining what makes it “good.” It investigates the institutional setting and the preferences of 415 forest users in a series of entertainment events organized in a large municipal forest (Lagiewniki) in Lodz, Poland. The low socio-economic status group benefited at the cost of the high socio-economic group, whose members typically chose to change their routes in the forest to avoid the nuisance related to these events. The fact that the lower socio-economic status group benefited seems to have been an unplanned side effect of leasing the deteriorating site (to reduce municipal costs) to a company that chose to pick a low-hanging fruit and not invest in developing the site but only cater to the less picky clientele. The local authorities responsible for leasing the site turned a blind eye to the various nuisances caused by these events and disregarded local conservation provisions. We put this case in the context of the “lumpengeography of capital” (Walker, 1978), which suggests that due to the relative scarcity of capital and the abundance of green spaces, some areas remain in a stage of disinvestment, perhaps only temporarily awaiting the next wave of capitalist redevelopment.

Where to fish in the forest? Tree characteristics and contiguous seagrass features predict mangrove forest quality for fishes and crustaceans

Abstract Mangroves often support rich fish and crustacean communities, although faunal abundance and diversity show strong spatiotemporal variability. Consistent patterns in mangrove animal communities might be dictated by forest characteristics, by seascape context or by some combination of these factors. Predicting drivers of spatial heterogeneity in mangrove faunal communities can better support the zoning of forests for management purposes, for example by identifying sites important for fisheries nursery provision. We sampled 14 sites within a large (4000 ha) mangrove forest in Kenya, quarterly over a period of 2 years. There were clear and consistent differences in the quality of sites for fish and crustacean abundance and diversity. Forest characteristics (as summarised by the complexity index, CI) and seascape metrics (the presence, area and configuration of contiguous seagrass) were strong predictors of site differences. However, they showed opposite influences on dominant members of the fish and crustacean faunas, with CI correlated negatively with fishes and positively with crustaceans, and seagrass area correlated positively with fishes and negatively with crustaceans. Synthesis and applications. Sites within the same mangrove forest exhibit consistent differences in fish and crustacean abundance. However, the fish and crustacean communities (and particularly dominant species within them) act differently in response to forest and seascape characteristics. Old growth, mature forest, set in a seascape of seagrass patches with bare sediment, was associated with highest crustacean abundance. In contrast, denser smaller trees and seascapes with larger, continuous areas of seagrass correlated better with fish abundance. Zoning for management, as mandated in new Kenyan policy, will need to consider these differences in seascape use between fish and crustaceans.

Towards a Transnational Approach to Transboundary Haze Pollution: Governing Traditional Farming in Fire-Prone Regions of Indonesia

AbstractIn Indonesia, swidden practices have been part of traditional rice farming for centuries. Swidden agriculture is a fundamental part of all remaining large tropical forests and provides a critical form of biodiversity-friendly agriculture. Meanwhile, peatland degradation and land conversion for oil palm plantation and agriculture have created an annual transboundary environmental disaster in Southeast Asia. This article adopts a transnational lens to highlight the complex multi-scale interactions that perpetuate recurring transboundary air pollution in the region. Having examined the traditional practices of swidden agriculture in Central Kalimantan and South Sumatra (Indonesia), the article reveals that swidden agriculture has been misunderstood generally, and in particular in international and national law and policy. It argues that existing laws fail to identify the important role that swidden agriculture plays in sustainable ecosystem management and cultural expression. Nuanced understandings of fire use, alongside transnational multi-stakeholder and multi-scale approaches, are required.

Home ranges of box turtles in a rural woodland and an urban park in Saint Louis, MO; implications for turtle conservation

The negative consequences of fragmentation, infrastructure development, and urbanization on biodiversity are well known. However, careful urban planning can provide viable habitat for some species and communities. Generally, r-selected species are more likely to persist in urbanizing landscapes, while long lived, mobile species, such as turtles, are likely to decline toward extinction. Understanding species responses across urban gradients is important for developing mitigation planning. We used VHF telemetry to quantify ranging behavior of three-toed box turtles in fragmented urban forest patches and a semi-contiguous large rural forest in Saint Louis, Missouri. We then simulated movement trajectories based on empirical data from the two turtles with the largest and smallest home ranges, overlaid on forest cover and road network maps of Missouri, to quantify the state-wide probability of turtles encountering roads. Home range (HR) size varied from 1–250Ha. The mean home range estimate of rural turtles was > 9 times larger than that of urban turtles. Simulations indicated that the least mobile turtle (HR 1Ha) would have a 22% likelihood of encountering a road if placed randomly in suitable habitat anywhere in the state. The likelihood increased to 90% for the most mobile turtle (HR 250Ha), with 10 road crossings per year. High turtle mortality, range restriction and population fragmentation are likely even in rural areas. In urban cityscapes, large, roadless forest patches offer the highest conservation potential for this species.

Mobilenet-based Transfer Learning for Detection of Eucalyptus Pellita Diseases

Currently, the pulp industry in Indonesia is ranked eighth in the world and the paper industry is ranked sixth in the world. One of the advantages in supporting the industry is that Indonesia has a large Industrial Plantation Forest (HTI) where the plants for pulp and paper raw materials originate. Eucalyptus pellita species belonging to the Myrtaceae family is one of the priority species for Industrial Plantation Forests (HTI) because of its adaptability and its wood can be used as raw material for pulp. Industrial Plantation Forests of this type can be found mainly in Kalimantan and Sumatra. This species shows good growth in stem shape, growth speed and good wood quality and has high germination and has a shorter cutting cycle of about 7-8 years so that it is quickly harvested. Prevention and treatment of leaf disease is one of the main processes of planting. Early diagnosis and accurate recognition of Eucalyptus Pellita disease can control the spread of the disease and reduce production costs and treatment costs. Disease detection on Eucalyptus pellita leaves can be done automatically faster by utilizing digital image processing and artificial intelligence. In this study, we propose a detection method with Deep Learning architecture. Our proposed method is based on pre-trained transfer learning using MobileNet. Image datasets from PT. Surya Hutani Jaya's land in East Kalimantan were used to train the model. The dataset is divided into three classes where 1 class is healthy leaves and 2 classes are sick leaves, namely Xanthomonas Bacteria and Cylindrocladium Fungi. With a dataset ratio of 70: 20: 10 the number of training datasets is 2370, validation is 591, and Testing is 177. Hyperparameter scenarios were carried out on the MobileNet model to optimize performance on the Eucalyptus Pellita leaf dataset. The experimental results show a fairly good accuracy, reaching 98%.

Replace me if you can: Abundance of advance regeneration under canopy trees in a primeval beech forest

Tree replacement patterns strongly shape species coexistence and dominance in forest ecosystems. In mixed forests subject to a small-scale disturbance regime, dead canopy trees are often replaced by advance regeneration. We studied the abundance of saplings (6–10 cm dbh) and poles (10–25 cm dbh) under canopy trees based on four inventories on a 10-ha permanent plot in a large primary forest dominated by Fagus sylvatica in Ukraine. Saplings and poles of Fagus sylvatica, Acer platanoides, A. pseudoplatanus and Ulmus glabra were spatially linked to canopy trees (‘hosts’, dbh > 25 cm) based on their crown radius, and the hosts’ neighborhood was classified according to the presence of dead trees. The number of saplings and poles under hosts was modelled with a Bayesian approach. There was a higher number of advance regeneration under hosts with increasing host diameter. The abundance of advance regeneration was the lowest under hosts in the canopy (i.e., under shaded conditions) and highest for hosts growing in gaps. 1) Under the canopy, only F. sylvatica poles can replace heterospecific hosts > 80 cm dbh, while other pole species are clearly below the replacement threshold. 2) Near dead lying trees, Acer pseudoplatanus rarely achieved an abundance of one pole at a host dbh > 80 cm. 3) In gaps, Acer spp. poles were able to replace F. sylvatica hosts. The proximity to dead lying trees and gaps is crucial for Acer spp. and U. glabra saplings for recruitment to the pole stage. The higher rate of recruitment under hosts adjacent to dead lying trees suggests that the total length of gap edges may be as important as gap size or disturbance frequency. In gaps > 550 m2, advance regeneration without hosts (growing in gaps) of Acer spp. can recruit higher number of saplings than F. sylvatica, but not poles. We conclude that almost all canopy trees of Acer spp. and U. glabra are likely to be replaced by Fagus sylvatica if the current small-scale disturbance regime and single-tree mortality continue to prevail.

Forest Fragmentation and Developmental Stability of Wood Mice Apodemus sylvaticus: A Food-Mediated Effect?

Generalist mice are key species for the long-term dynamics of fragmented forests due to their dual role as seed dispersers or predators of the dominant trees. Wood mice, Apodemus sylvaticus, usually act as a net predator in woodlots due to higher winter densities and earlier winter reproduction than in forests. Here we analyze the recruitment expectations of young mice born in woodlots in relation to food availability through an index of developmental stability that combined values of fluctuating asymmetry (FA) for six traits of the lower mandibles. FA was measured in young and adult mice caught at the end of the winter in control woodlots, food-supplemented woodlots and in a nearby large forest. Despite low sample sizes (n = 9 for young and n = 74 for adults), FA in young mice born in control woodlots were significantly higher than in those from food-supplemented woodlots and the forest and in all adults. Food limitation in woodlots was thus associated with increased developmental instability of young mice, but it had no effect on adults. Instability likely reduced the survival prospects of young mice through increased mortality, and this should be compensated by yearly recolonization of woodlots by adults from the agricultural matrix in autumn and winter. Future work analyzing mechanisms suggested here but using non-lethal methods will be important to clarify the impacts of FA on the population dynamics of wood mice.

Early Warning System for Fire Catcher in Rain Forest of Sumatera Using Thermal Spots

This research’s goals were clear agricultural land in large tropical forests, it is usually very difficult to control because it requires no small amount of money for farmers. The burning method of tropical forest land is a cheap way for farmers to start farming and saves energy. Unfortunately, this method can increase the impact on health and environmental damage. There are several research on burning forest land for agriculture but there are still many weaknesses and shortcomings in the application of the applied method. Therefore, a model was designed to detect and reduce the weaknesses and shortcomings of each method applied in optimizing the detection and reduction of error rates in forest burning that can cause forest fires using the 4.0 technology method. In designing of the Early Warning System Model for Fire Catcher in the rain forest of Jambi, Sumatra, the methods used are literature study, analysis method with hotspots information system (hotspots) and Earth data, NASA. The analytical method in the form of action research is intended to examine the problems faced by the Forestry Service of the Province of Sumatra and the tropical forests of Sumatra. Forestry Service Unit in Sumatra Province as a sample. The design method is used to design a new application system based on data taken from interviews with the forestry service in the form of Intellectual Property Rights that can provide solutions to problem identification. In designing the Early Warning System Model for Fire Catcher in the rain forest of Jambi, Sumatra as the outcome of the first-year research that the methods used are literature study, analysis method with hotspot information system and Earth data, NASA. The design of the Intellectual Property Rights Model uses PHP, MySQL. The result to be achieved is the success of the early warning system model to detect forest fires also the widespread publication in Indonesia in the first year of this research.