IntroductionThe significant property price rises seen in the UK since the mid-1990s are part of a wider global trend, and whilst the issue is frequently presented as one of house price rises the explanation for the phenomenon lies largely in increasing land values. Land values are rising across both urban and rural land in many parts of the world. In a recent study, Knoll et al. (2014) examined house price rises in fourteen advanced economies since 1870. They found that real house prices stayed constant from the nineteenth to the mid-twentieth century, but rose distinctly during the second half of the twentieth century, and particularly since the 1980s. Their analysis suggests that rising land values explain around 80 per cent of the house price rises which were witnessed in those countries during this period, in contrast to other possible explanatory factors, such as materials and labour costs. Rural land has also seen significant rises. For example, the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) reported in August 2016 that between 2004 and 2015 pasture land prices in England and Wales tripled (AHDB, 2016). The concern of this Viewpoint is with the potential implications of this trend for planners in the immediate context, and also for the planning profession as a whole into the future.Speculating about speculationIn his recent contributions to the intellectual discourse, David Harvey has suggested why these significant land value rises may be occurring. In considering the growth of the world economy since industrialisation, Harvey notes that a number of economic historians, whilst not aligning precisely on their estimations of the figures for size and growth rate, do indicate that the global economy has shown signs of having historically grown at a compound rate (Maddison 2007 quoted in Harvey 2014). In contrast to a linear rate of growth, under the conditions of compound growth the overall size of economic output initially increases at insignificant increments, but at a certain point rises more rapidly, from which it then rises at an increasing rate. It is suggested by Harvey (2014) that the 1970s was a key inflection point, at which growth began particularly to accelerate.From his characteristic position interpreting Marx's writings, Harvey suggests that within a system of capitalism there is a continual requirement for reinvestment opportunities (in Marxian terms, the 'absorption of capital surplus'). Without these opportunities a capitalist system cannot function. In order to make a reasonable return on these investments the owners of capital require the overall economy to be growing. Harvey suggests that the commonly accepted rate at which an economy is required to grow in order for most capitalists to make a reasonable profit on their investments is around 3 per cent (the target rate for economic growth endorsed by the financial press). A key implication is that, under the conditions of compound growth, the requirement for surplus absorption also reflects this growth rate. Therefore, since the 1970s, at the level of the world economy there has been a continuingly increasing requirement for capital investment opportunities in order for capitalists to make a suitable profit and for the overall system to be maintained. The implications of this are spelt out by Harvey:To keep a satisfactory growth rate right now would mean finding profitable investment opportunities for an extra nearly $2 trillion compared to the 'mere' $6 billion that was needed in 1970. By the time 2030 rolls around, when estimates suggest the global economy could be more than $96 trillion, profitable investment opportunities of close to $3 trillion will be needed. Thereafter the numbers become astronomical. (2014, 228)The accelerating requirement for investment opportunities since the 1970s has been supported by the various neoliberal state projects the world over. Indeed, Harvey argues that the privatisation of state assets and 'enclosure' of a range of formerly common goods (such as water and other utilities) have played a significant role in opening up opportunities for the absorption of capital surplus. …
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