Land Use Conversion Research Articles

Agrivoltaics in Japan

A comprehensive and supportive legal framework is a key factor for the expansion of agrivoltaics. This study analyzed, therefore, the existing laws, regulations, and policies related to agrivoltaics in Japan and assessed its actual effects on relevant stakeholders. An increasing horizontal policy integration on the federal level was identified. However, the vertical policy integration is still insufficient with often skeptical municipalities and local agricultural councils. The key barriers are related to the land-use conversion process, financing of agrivoltaic projects, socio-political and market acceptance, and grid constraints in rural areas. There are, however, opportunities for addressing these challenges in recently established councils that include a variety of members from industry, academia, and government.

Dynamics of Land Use/Land Cover Considering Ecosystem Services for a Dense-Population Watershed Based on a Hybrid Dual-Subject Agent and Cellular Automaton Modeling Approach

Land use/land cover represents the interactive and comprehensive influences between human activities and natural conditions, leading to potential conflicts among natural and human-related issues as well as among stakeholders. This study introduced economic standards for farmers. A hybrid approach (CA-ABM) of cellular automaton (CA) and an agent-based model (ABM) was developed to effectively deal with social and land-use synergic issues to examine human–environment interactions and projections of land-use conversions for a humid basin in south China. Natural attributes and socioeconomic data were used to analyze land use/land cover and its drivers of change. The major modules of the CA-ABM are initialization, migration, assets, land suitability, and land-use change decisions. Empirical estimates of the factors influencing the urban land-use conversion probability were captured using parameters based on a spatial logistic regression (SLR) model. Simultaneously, multicriteria evaluation (MCE) and Markov models were introduced to obtain empirical estimates of the factors affecting the probability of ecological land conversion. An agent-based CA-SLR-MCE-Markov (ABCSMM) land-use conversion model was proposed to explore the impacts of policies on land-use conversion. This model can reproduce observed land-use patterns and provide links for forest transition and urban expansion to land-use decisions and ecosystem services. The results demonstrated land-use simulations under multi-policy scenarios, revealing the usefulness of the model for normative research on land-use management.

Land Management Drifted: Land Use Scenario Modeling of Trancura River Basin, Araucanía, Chile

Modeling land use scenarios is critical to understand the socio-environmental impacts of current decisions and to explore future configurations for management. The management of regulations and permits by central and local governments plays an important role in shaping land use, with different complexities arising from site-specific socioeconomic dynamics. In Chile, the complexity is even more evident due to insufficient binding land regulations, fragmented government procedures, and the primacy of cities over rural areas. Yet land use must be managed to support sustainable development. This research integrates several state management dynamics into scenario modeling to support decision making at the basin scale through 2050. We employed a mixed qualitative-quantitative approach using interviews with state officials and local stakeholders as the basis for the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE) model, which resulted in three scenarios with spatially explicit maps. Key findings indicate that opportunities for developing normative planning tools are limited, leaving state management without clear direction. However, current management practices can address problematic activities such as second-home projects and industrial monocultures while promoting small-scale agriculture. Scenario modeling is useful for understanding how the specifics that arise from the scalar dynamics of state management affect land use change and how existing management resources can be leveraged to achieve positive outcomes for both the ecosystem and society.

Mapping the diversity of land uses following deforestation across Africa

African forest are increasingly in decline as a result of land-use conversion due to human activities. However, a consistent and detailed characterization and mapping of land-use change that results in forest loss is not available at the spatial-temporal resolution and thematic levels suitable for decision-making at the local and regional scales; so far they have only been provided on coarser scales and restricted to humid forests. Here we present the first high-resolution (5 m) and continental-scale mapping of land use following deforestation in Africa, which covers an estimated 13.85% of the global forest area, including humid and dry forests. We use reference data for 15 different land-use types from 30 countries and implement an active learning framework to train a deep learning model for predicting land-use following deforestation with an F1-score of 84±0.7\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$84\\pm 0.7$$\\end{document} for the whole of Africa. Our results show that the causes of forest loss vary by region. In general, small-scale cropland is the dominant driver of forest loss in Africa, with hotspots in Madagascar and DRC. In addition, commodity crops such as cacao, oil palm, and rubber are the dominant drivers of forest loss in the humid forests of western and central Africa, forming an “arc of commodity crops” in that region. At the same time, the hotspots for cashew are found to increasingly dominate in the dry forests of both western and south-eastern Africa, while larger hotspots for large-scale croplands were found in Nigeria and Zambia. The increased expansion of cacao, cashew, oil palm, rubber, and large-scale croplands observed in humid and dry forests of western and south-eastern Africa suggests they are vulnerable to future land-use changes by commodity crops, thus creating challenges for achieving the zero deforestation supply chains, support REDD+ initiatives, and towards sustainable development goals.

Carbon Stock Estimation From Vegetation Biomass Using Spot-7 Imagery

Vegetation absorbs carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions during photosynthesis. Covering more areas with trees will increase the CO2 absorption capacity more substantially than other vegetation like bushes, grasses, or rice fields. Trees convert the CO2 captured during photosynthesis into organic carbon to be stored in biomass. Woody trees account for approximately 60% of the total aboveground tree biomass, and trunks, where food reserves produced in photosynthesis are stored, have relatively large biomass compared to other parts of the tree. The biomass of a vegetation stand determines the optimization of air pollutant absorption in urban areas. Yogyakarta City is the center for tourism, education, and cultural activities in Indonesia, which is vulnerable to land-use conversion, a factor of the shrinking green space. This study aimed to estimate carbon stock from vegetation biomass in Yogyakarta City using the remote sensing product SPOT-7 imagery. To calculate the vegetation biomass, the diameter at breast height (DBH) of stands was measured in the field. Then, statistical analyses were performed to determine the correlation and regression between the actual or observed biomass and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) value derived from the SPOT-7 image. The regression model used was y = 1.4277x – 0.0849. The total biomass produced in Yogyakarta City was estimated at 1,399,487.1 tonnes, which contained 643,764.1 tonnes of carbon stock.

Dynamics of Tropical Peatlands Characteristics and Carbon Stocks as Affected by Land Use Conversion and Ages of Land Use in Riau Province, Indonesia

The dynamics and patterns of relationships between the characteristics of Indonesian tropical peat involving a function of time (ages of land use) in the context of land conversion have yet to be widely reported. The effects of tropical peatland use change are generally discussed regarding C emissions, with the limited literature identifying dynamic soil characteristics as these changes occur. This study used a survey method. We identified the physical, chemical, and C stock characteristics of peat in forest locations, oil palm plantations with a land use age of 0-5 years,>5-10 years,>10 years, and agricultural land with a land use age of 0-5 years and >5-10 years to find out the dynamics of soil characteristics. Land use changes from peat swamp forests to oil palm plantations and agricultural land, and the longer age of land use results in an increase in BD (especially at the top layer), ash content, pH, Total-N, total-P2O5, total-K2O, but there was a decrease in water content, fiber content, Organic-C, E400/E600, and soil C stocks. The alignment of economic, social, and ecological interests was directed to water and land management by regulating the area’s hydrological system and increasing peat stability.

The effect of land-use conversion from agriculture to perennial biomass crops and nitrogen fertilizer on soil organic carbon stock in southern Ontario, Canada

Switchgrass [Panicum virgatum, (SG)] and miscanthus [Miscanthus spp., (Mis)] are perennial biomass crops (PBCs) commonly grown in Ontario, Canada. By the integration of PBCs on marginal/degraded agricultural (Ag) fields, a positive gain in soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration has been reported in the scientific literature. Therefore, using PBCs to enhance SOC sequestration can potentially contribute to Canada's goal to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. However, long-term field research (>10 years) to clearly demonstrate this trend in Canada is limited. In the above context, this study compared the current SOC stock (Mg C ha−1) in SG and Mis to that of baseline Ag SOC obtained from three different locations, namely Elora (2008–2019), Guelph (2009–2020) and Burlington (2016–2020), Ontario, Canada. SOC stock at the time of land-use conversion from Ag to SG and Mis was considered as baseline. Woodlots (WLs), undisturbed natural forests, were used as reference SOC (potential maximum SOC stock) to predict the potential SOC sequestration in the future by PBCs at the respective locations. Results showed that SOC stocks in all SG fields, Mis fields and WLs were higher compared to respective baseline Ag fields. SOC stocks (Mg C ha−1) in PBCs were significantly higher in Elora (SG: 96.3 ± 3.44, Mis: 100.0 ± 1.48) and Guelph (SG: 88.5 ± 5.72, Mis: 87.9 ± 6.43) over 11 years, whereas SOC stock in Burlington (SG: 87.5 ± 5.04, Mis: 94.7 ± 4.86), showed no significant difference over 4 years compared to their respective baseline Ag fields (77.6 ± 3.09, 59.3 ± 1.17 and 84.1 ± 3.39). All WLs had significantly higher SOC stock compared to their respective baseline Ag fields, showing the potential for future SOC stock gain by PBCs. SOC stock values in SG, with different nitrogen (N) fertilizer application rates (0, 40, 80 and 160 kg N ha−1), were not significantly different. Conversely, SOC stock at all N rates were significantly higher in SG than baseline Ag SOC stock values. For Mis, only N fertilizer rates 40, 80, 160 kg N ha−1 significantly increased SOC stock. However, within the four N fertilizer rates, SOC significantly increased only at 80 kg N ha−1. Increases in SOC stock suggest that converting marginal lands to PBCs over the long-term (>10 years) could create additional terrestrial C sinks. In Canada, there are close to 10 million ha of degraded Ag lands that can potentially be repurposed for PBCs, therefore the conversion of these unproductive Ag lands to PBCs could significantly contribute to Canada's climate mitigation strategies.

Soil Microbial Communities Show Different Patterns under Different Land Use Types in the Coastal Area of Nantong, China

Tidal flats in eastern China have undergone various transformations into other land-use types. Understanding the impact of land-use conversion on soil properties and microbial communities is crucial for effective ecological conservation efforts. In this study, we compared soil chemical properties and the diversity, composition, and ecological functions of soil bacterial and fungal communities across four land-use types: natural bare land (BL), unused reclaimed tidal land (Phragmites, PL), agricultural land (maize, ML), and shelterbelt land (SL), utilizing next-generation sequencing technology. The results indicated that soil electrical conductivity decreased, while soil organic carbon (SOC) and nutrient contents increased in ML and SL compared to BL and PL. The bacterial Chao1 and fungal Chao1 and Shannon values vary across different land-use types. A higher relative abundance of Acidobacteriota, specifically RB41, was found in ML compared to BL. Principal coordinate and PerMANOVA analysis showed that the composition of bacterial and fungal communities differed significantly across the four land-use types. SOC explained the most variance in both bacterial and fungal communities. Carbon-related functional genes and fungal guilds exhibit greater diversity across the four land-use types compared to nitrogen-related functional genes. In conclusion, the transformation of natural land-use types to managed one greatly altered soil chemical and microbial properties. Our study offers foundational insights into the microbial communities in the typical land-use types of Eastern China’s coastal area. Future studies should emphasize the quantification of human interventions and their impact on soil microbial communities and ecological functions.

Soil physicochemical properties and crusts regulate the soil infiltration capacity after land-use conversions from farmlands in semiarid areas

Large scale land-use conversions played important role in regulating the process of soil infiltration, and thus changing soil moisture recharge. However, how the soil properties influence infiltration after farmland conversions remain unclear in the semiarid areas. This study used a double-ring infiltrometer to conduct infiltration experiments in soil surface and subsurface among land-uses on the Loess Plateau, to explore the mechanism of soil physicochemical properties and crusts on infiltration. The results showed that the revegetation lands effectively improved infiltration properties, while no significant differences were observed between the orchards and the farmlands. The loose soil structure, stable aggregates, higher organic matter and root mass density improved while soil crusts impeded infiltration capacity after farmland conversions. The impeding effect of the biocrusts presented throughout the infiltration process while physical crusts impeded infiltration only at the initial stage. Soil physical properties (i.e., bulk density, porosity, macroaggregate, texture, moisture), biochemical properties (i.e., soil organic matter, roots) and crusts were major factors in the variation of the surface (0–20 cm) infiltration properties, while subsurface (20–40 cm) infiltration were mainly influenced by soil physical properties. The deeper soils had a greater impact on steady infiltration rate than initial infiltration rate. Due to the plough pan in agricultural lands, the subsurface soil (20–40 cm) had a strong effect (42.1%) on the steady infiltration rate of the surface (0–20 cm) soil, even close to the surface (0–20 cm) soils (49.8%). These findings improve the comprehensive understanding of the soil hydrological processes after farmlands conversions in semiarid areas.

Ecological monitoring of urban thermal field variance index and determining the surface urban heat island effects in Lahore, Pakistan.

Lahore is the second major metropolitan city in Pakistan in terms of urban population and built-up area, making the city a more ideal place to form the surface urban heat island (SUHI) effects. In the last two decades, the considerable land-use conversion from a natural surface (vegetation) and permeable (waterbody) surface into an impervious (built-up area) surfacehas lead to an increase in land surface temperature (LST) in Lahore. The human thermal comfort (HTC) of the residents is alsoimpacted by the higher LST. The present study uses multi-temporal Landsat (5&8) satellite imageries to examine the ecological and thermal conditions of Lahore between 2000 and 2020. The ecological and thermal conditions of Lahore are assessed by calculating the urban heat islands and UTFVI (urban thermal field variance index), based on LST data which quantitatively assessed the UHI effect and the quality of human life. The outcomes establish that the urban built-up area has increased by 18%, while urban vegetation, vacant land, and waterbody decreased by 13%, 4%, and 0.04%, respectively. In the last 20 years, the mean LST of the study region has risen by about 3.67 °C. The UHI intensity map shows intensification and a rise in surface temperature variation from 4.5 °C (2000) to 5.9 °C (2020). Furthermore, the finding shows that the ecological and thermal conditions are worse in construction sites, transition zones, and urban areasin comparison to nearby rural areas. The lower UTFVI was observed in dense vegetation cover areas while a hot spot of higher UTFVI was predominantly observed in the areas of transition zones and built-up area expansion. Those areas with higher hot spots are more vulnerable to the urban heat island effect. The main conclusions of this study are essential for educating city officials and urban planners in developing a sustainable urban land development plan to reduce urban heat island effects by investing in open green spaces for urban areas of cities.

Conversion of steppe to cropland increases spatial heterogeneity of soil functional genes.

The microbiome function responses to land use change are important for the long-term prediction and management of soil ecological functions under human influence. However, it has remains uncertain how the biogeographic patterns of soil functional composition change when transitioning from natural steppe soils (NS) to agricultural soils (AS). We collected soil samples from adjacent pairs of AS and NS across 900 km of Mollisol areas in northeast China, and the soil functional composition was characterized using shotgun sequencing. AS had higher functional alpha-diversity indices with respect to KO trait richness and a higher Shannon index than NS. The distance-decay slopes of functional gene composition were steeper in AS than in NS along both spatial and environmental gradients. Land-use conversion from steppe to farmland diversified functional gene profiles both locally and spatially; it increased the abundances of functional genes related to labile carbon, but decreased those related to recalcitrant substrate mobilization (e.g., lignin), P cycling, and S cycling. The composition of gene functional traits was strongly driven by stochastic processes, while the degree of stochasticity was higher in NS than in AS, as revealed by the neutral community model and normalized stochasticity ratio analysis. Alpha-diversity of core functional genes was strongly related to multi-nutrient cycling in AS, suggesting a key relationship to soil fertility. The results of this study challenge the paradigm that the conversion of natural to agricultural habitat will homogenize soil properties and biology while reducing local and regional gene functional diversity.

Spatial expansion of avocado in Mexico: Could the energy use of pruning residues offset orchard GHG emissions?

Avocado orchards (Persea americana) in Mexico are constantly being expanded to meet the increasing demand for the fruit in the national and international markets. The land-use change (LUC) caused by this expansion has numerous negative impacts, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to the loss of forest cover and the burning of pruning residues. To generate a comprehensive evaluation of this complex environmental issue, we calculate emissions from LUC and from residue burning between 1974 and 2017 at a local scale (1:20,000), and the energy potential of pruning residues was estimated as an alternative to revalue a waste product and mitigate the negative impacts of avocado cultivation. Our results show that land-use conversions emitted 390.5 GgCO2, of which 91% came from conversions to avocado orchards. Emissions of GHG from biomass burning amounted to an additional 20.68 GgCO2e released per year. Given that around 12,600 tons of dry avocado pruning residues are generated annually in the study region, their use for energy generation could replace 240 TJ/year of fossil fuels in rural industries and could mitigate around 31 GgCO2e per year. This study provides decision-makers with a concrete example of how to establish multiple-impact strategies at local scales.

Optimal allocation for land in an arid inland basin in northwest China: framework and application based on CLUE-S and MCR models.

Reasonable planning of the limited land resources can promote the coordinated development of social economic and ecological protection. It is very important to optimize the rational distribution of land resources in the arid inland river basin because of the scarce land. In this paper, the GIS technologies of spatial analysis, conversion of land use, and its effects at small regional extent (CLUE-S) and minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model were used to optimize the land allocation. The ecological security pattern (ESP) was constructed through using MCR model, which included ecological source and resistance surface. The dynamics of land use and spatial optimizing allocation of Shiyang River Basin in 2025 and 2030 was simulated under three different optimization scenarios including farmland protection scenario (FPS), free development scenario (FDS), and ecological security pattern scenario (ESPS). It was found that under ESPS, farmland was reduced, but woodland, grassland, and water body were increased significantly. Under FPS, land for construction was controlled effectively, a large part of homestead was converted into farmland, and the potential of unused land was developed vigorously. Furthermore, the current FDS and macro policy guidance should be comprehensively considered. The ESPS was more suitable for the scientific development of Shiyang River Basin on a long view. The combination of CLUE-S and MCR can effectively improve the optimization methods under ecological process and ecological resistance of landscape elements.

SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF INVASIVE PLANTS IN BANDUNG, WEST JAVA, INDONESIA

The urban area is a source of invasive plants that enter through human activities such as agriculture and land-use conversion. Studying the invasive plant in urban areas is essential to understanding the city’s ecosystem health condition. Therefore, this study aims to inventory invasive plants, map their distribution, and explain the relationship between land use with the community diversity and species richness of invasive plants in Bandung. The vegetation analysis was performed using line-transect in 22 study sites distributed using a systematic random sampling method in Bandung to observe the plant species composition. The study plots were placed based on the land-use type. The species name, individual number, frequency, and sampling site locations were noted and analyzed to calculate the important value index (IVI) and the invasive species distribution pattern using the principal component analysis (PCA). The dominant invasive species was spatially mapped. Six types of land use were used in this study, i.e., settlements, street green lanes, gardens, paddy fields, urban parks, and urban forests. There were 187 species found in Bandung, which can be categorized into alien invasive species (39%), invasive native plants (25%), non-invasive alien species (18%), non-invasive native species (15%), and unidentified plants (3%). The most common invasive plants found were Eleusine indica (IVI=10.50%), Trimezia martinicensis (IVI=7.22%), and Cyperus rotundus (IVI=6.74%). Based on the plant community similarity index, the study area with the highest similarities were paddy fields with gardens (50.5%), settlements with road lanes (44.4%), urban parks with road lanes (26.2%), and urban forests with road lane (17.5%). PCA showed Swietenia macrophylla as the most common invasive plant found in urban forests, urban parks, and road lanes, with air humidity as the most influencing environmental factor. Trimezia martinicensis is the most common species in the settlement area affected by high air humidity. Bidens pilosa is an invasive plant commonly found on paddy fields, gardens, settlements, road lanes, and urban park edges. This species can easily and rapidly reproduce with a high survival rate. The many invasive plants found in Bandung must be managed to maintain the urban ecosystem’s health.

Dynamics of soil organic carbon of jhum agriculture land-use system in the heterogeneous hill of Arunachal Pradesh, India

Land-use conversion affects soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics. Therefore, an in-depth study of change in SOC, SOC pool, fractions of SOC and enzymatic activities of soil microbial biomass carbon (SMBC) and dehydrogenase (DHA) with the conversion of forest land to jhum, fallow jhum and settle cultivation use has been undertaken on the hills of Arunachal Pradesh of India. Geo-referenced soil samples from eight different locations, each from different land uses were collected at three depth. One part of the soil sample had been used for the analysis of SOC and its carbon fraction. The second portion was kept in a deep freezer for determining SMBC and DHA. The third part was used for the analysis of bulk density. The result revealed that the highest loss of SOC pool was recorded in jhum land (41.8 to 13.4%), and the labile carbon was also found to decrease in jhum land. The highest SMBC was observed on the surface soil of the natural forest; the highest DHA was found in the natural forest; and the lowest DHA was recorded in jhum land. This study found that the converting natural forest to jhum reduces SOC storage, enzymatic activities and C fractions significantly whereas fallow jhum shows sign of recovery because all of these parameters improved when compared to the jhum land-use system. This study also confirms that the fallow period helps restore the initial situation.

Future prediction of scenario based land use land cover (LU&LC) using DynaCLUE model for a river basin

Human activities that cause changes to the surface of the Earth lead to alterations in Land Use and Land Cover (LU&LC) which have an impact on biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and the well-being of humans. In order to comprehend and manage the effects of human activities on the environment, prediction of scenario-based LU&LC in future periods are crucial. Scenario-based predictions of LU&LC provide valuable insights for decision-makers in the sustainable governance of land and water resources. In the present study, the Dynamic Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (DynaCLUE) modelling platform was used to predict future LU&LC for Munneru river basin, India. Using six different user defined scenarios LU&LC change patterns were analyzed in 2030, 2050 and 2080 so as to understand the pressure on the natural resources and to plan sustainable Land Use Planning by preserving the important land use classes. The connection between LU&LC classes and input driving factors was quantified using Binary Logistic Regression (BLR) analysis. The β-coefficient was estimated using LU&LC type as a dependent variable and driving factors as independent variables. The demands of each LU&LC type, spatial policies and constraints, characteristics of each location and land use conversions are used as inputs for prediction of future LU&LC maps. Major conversions in LU&LC observed in this basin from last two decades are the rapid increase in built-up area due to urbanization in the outskirts of cities and towns. The major LU&LC changes projected for the period of 2019–2080 are expansion of built-up area ranging from 42.5% to 88.5%, and a reduction in barren land ranging from 57.3% to 74.5% across all six scenarios in the entire basin. The projected LU&LC maps under different scenarios provide valuable insights that could aid local communities, government agencies, and stakeholders in systematically allocating resources at the local level and in preparing the policies for long-term benefits.

Phosphorus leaching risk from black soil increased due to conversion of arid agricultural land to paddy land in northeast China

BackgroundLand-use change from arid agricultural land to paddy land may increase soil phosphorus (P) leaching in the black soil region. However, little information is available for soil P leaching risk assessment from soil profiles due to the land-use conversion in the black soil region of northeast China.ResultsThis study explored the effect of land-use change from arid agricultural land to paddy land on soil P leaching change point, P leaching risk and P fractions. Conversion from arid agricultural land to paddy land decrease soil P leaching change point (0–20 cm: 59.63 mg kg−1 vs. 35.35 mg kg−1; 20–40 cm: 24.31 mg kg−1 vs. 17.20 mg kg−1; 40–60 cm: 32.91 mg kg−1 vs. 10.45 mg kg−1); 30.9% of arid agricultural soils were at risk of P leaching into the shallow groundwater, compared to 87.5% of paddy soils, implying a high risk of P leaching after land-use conversion. P fraction analysis using the Hedley sequential extraction method showed that moderately active P, including NaOH-Pi, NaOH-Po, and HCl-Pi, were the dominant fractions in the tested soils. HCl-Pi and NaOH-Pi were the major P fraction of moderately active P in arid agricultural land and paddy land, respectively, indicating that land-use change leads to the conversion from Ca-bound P to P associated with Fe and Al.ConclusionsThe soil P leaching change point decreased due to land-use conversion from arid agricultural soils to paddy soils, which may lead to higher P leaching risk. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the management and control of soil P loss in areas with large-scaled conversion from arid agricultural land to paddy fields.Graphical

A user-friendly assessment of six commonly used urban growth models

An accurate grasp of urban expansion patterns is conducive to efficient urban management and planning. Various urban growth models have been developed to meet this need in the last two decades. As more models become available, users increasingly face the challenge of choosing the right one for their purposes. In this study, we first reviewed the recent usage pattern of urban growth models (UGMs) and identified the top ten UGMs accounting for 73.3% of total usage from 2000 to 2021. We then compared the performance of six commonly used UGMs in simulating urban expansion, including the Cellular Automata-Markov model (CA-Markov), Slope, land use, excluded layer, urban extent, transportation, hillshade (SLEUTH), Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small extent model (CLUE-S), Future land use simulation model (FLUS), Land Use Scenario Dynamics model (LUSD), and Land Change Modeler (LCM). The behaviors of the six models were verified against descriptions in the model's documentation. We also analyzed the models' documentation, focusing on data requirements and the user's flexibility in the modeling process. The results showed that the validation accuracies of the models varied with the inputted data, indicating a model does not have an intrinsic accuracy. CA-Markov, FLUS, LUSD, and LCM could be verified, while CLUE-S and SLEUTH failed to meet some verification criteria. In addition, SLEUTH has the highest requirement for input data among all studied models. FLUS and LCM allow for higher user flexibility in modeling than others. This study's findings can help users decide which of the six urban growth models suits them.

Deforestation for oil palm increases microclimate suitability for the development of the disease vector Aedes albopictus

A major trade-off of land-use change is the potential for increased risk of infectious diseases, a.o. through impacting disease vector life-cycles. Evaluating the public health implications of land-use conversions requires spatially detailed modelling linking land-use to vector ecology. Here, we estimate the impact of deforestation for oil palm cultivation on the number of life-cycle completions of Aedes albopictus via its impact on local microclimates. We apply a recently developed mechanistic phenology model to a fine-scaled (50-m resolution) microclimate dataset that includes daily temperature, rainfall and evaporation. Results of this combined model indicate that the conversion from lowland rainforest to plantations increases suitability for A. albopictus development by 10.8%, moderated to 4.7% with oil palm growth to maturity. Deforestation followed by typical plantation planting-maturation-clearance-replanting cycles is predicted to create pulses of high development suitability. Our results highlight the need to explore sustainable land-use scenarios that resolve conflicts between agricultural and human health objectives.

Future land-use change predictions using Dyna-Clue to support mosquito-borne disease risk assessment

Mosquitoes are known vectors for viral diseases in Canada, and their distribution is driven by climate and land use. Despite that, future land-use changes have not yet been used as a driver in mosquito distribution models in North America. In this paper, we developed land-use change projections designed to address mosquito-borne disease (MBD) prediction in a 38 761 km2 area of Eastern Ontario. The landscape in the study area is marked by urbanization and intensive agriculture and hosts a diverse mosquito community. The Dyna-CLUE model was used to project land-use for three time horizons (2030, 2050, and 2070) based on historical trends (from 2014 to 2020) for water, forest, agriculture, and urban land uses. Five scenarios were generated to reflect urbanization, agricultural expansion, and natural areas. An ensemble of thirty simulations per scenario was run to account for land-use conversion uncertainty. The simulation closest to the average map generated was selected to represent the scenario. A concordance matrix generated using map pair analysis showed a good agreement between the simulated 2020 maps and 2020 observed map. By 2050, the most significant changes are predicted to occur mainly in the southeastern region’s rural and forested areas. By 2070, high deforestation is expected in the central west. These results will be integrated into risk models predicting mosquito distribution to study the possibility of humans’ increased exposure risk to MBDs.