Land Ecosystem Services Research Articles

Regional ecological risk assessment based on multi-scenario simulation of land use changes and ecosystem service values in Inner Mongolia, China

Regional ecological risk assessment (ERA) is an important means towards sustainable regional development. Yet, existing ERA approaches often fall short of characterizing ecological processes as dynamic processes involving uncertainty. Using Inner Mongolia, a high ecological risk area in China, this study employed a framework for regional ERA that considers ecosystem service value (ESV) and four scenarios of future land use patterns to understand its regional ecological risk. The spatially explicit risk assessment method was implemented by a model combining multi-criteria evaluation (MCE), cellular automata (CA), and Markov chain to predict future land use/cover of 2030, an adjustment-based equivalence factor method to assess the ESV in each scenario, and Sharpe Index to assess regional ecological risk. The results show the following. First, the overall ESV increases from 2020 to 2030 under all but the socio-economic development (SED) scenarios considered in this study. Second, the overall regional ecological risk of Inner Mongolia is high in the central region and low in the east, north, and west regions. The low ecological risk areas account for the largest areal proportion in the ecosystem services protection (ESP) and natural development (ND) scenarios, while the medium ecological risk areas are the largest under SED. However, some low ecological risk areas are converted into medium ecological risk in ecological and socioeconomic balance scenario (ESB) scenario. Third, NDVI is the driving factor with the strongest explanatory power for the regional ecological risk in Inner Mongolia, followed by mean annual precipitation and temperature. The present study applied a framework for regional ERA that explicitly considers spatial heterogeneity and uncertainty, which can be useful for guiding decision-making for ecological risk control and the planning of the land use of ecosystems.

Changes in land use and ecosystem service value in desert areas of China after reform and opening up

Changes in land use and ecosystem service value in desert areas of China after reform and opening up

Agricultural land conversion and ecosystem services loss: a meta-analysis

Agricultural land conversion and ecosystem services loss: a meta-analysis

Assessing ecological risk on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on future land use scenarios and ecosystem service values

As one of the world’s critical ecological regions – often called the “Third Pole” – the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) has outstanding ecosystem service values (ESV). However, its variable climate and fragile environmental conditions make it vulnerable to disturbance by human activities. Based on land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020, we developed three simulated scenarios of land use distribution on the QTP: business as usual (BAU), farmland protection (FP), and ecological protection (EP). Finally, we employed the Sharpe Index to evaluate ecological risk across the QTP. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, land use change was mainly in the form of conversion of grassland to unused land, totaling an area of 63,717 km2. The ecosystem service value showed an increasing trend, from US$752.6 billion to US$783.0 from 2010 to 2020. The simulation results from the three scenarios revealed significant differences. Farmland area shows a declining trend in both the EP and BAU scenarios, while exhibiting an increasing trend in the FP scenario. Forest area on the plateau experiences a decreasing trend in the EP and BAU scenarios, but shows an increase in the FP scenario, predominantly in the southeastern region, including Sichuan and Yunnan provinces. The ecological risk assessment results indicate that the eastern region has higher ecological risk compared to the western region, highlighting the western region as a priority area for risk control. The expansion of built-up land and unused land has had significant impacts on regional ecological risk. Integrating risk assessment outcomes with land use planning to identify focal areas can provide guidance for the sustainable development of this globally important ecoregion.

Changes in land use or land cover and ecosystem service values in Wuhan city, China, from 1996 to 2018

Despite rapid development in response research of land use to ecosystem service values (ESV), there is little attention to the influence of ecological construction at a local scale with an empirical study. Based on land use data from two Chinese land surveys, this study attempted to assess ESV from the dual perspectives of urbanization and ecological protection with the primary data-based approach from 1996 to 2018 in Wuhan, central China. We found that the ESV increased from 119.32 billion yuan to 220.29 billion yuan during 1996 – 2018, with an average annual growth rate of 1.27%, 3.86%, 3.49%, 2.97%, and 1.87% during the periods 1996 – 2000, 2000 – 2005, 2005 – 2010, 2010 – 2015, and 2015 – 2018, respectively. The conversion of other land use types to forest and water bodies was the main reason for the increase in ESV. The analysis results could be helpful to provide a new way to create policies pertaining to city development and ecological environment protection in typical rapid urbanization regions.

How does water diversion affect land use change and ecosystem service: A case study of Baiyangdian wetland, China

Baiyangdian wetland is the biggest plant-dominated shallow freshwater wetland in Huabei Plain, providing a wide range of ecosystem services. In the past few decades, the water scarcity and eco-environmental problems resulted from climate changes and human activities have become more and more serious. To relieve the pressure of water scarcity and ecological degradation, the government has implemented ecological water diversion projects (EWDPs) since 1992. In this study, land use and land cover change (LUCC) caused by EWDPs over three decades was analyzed to quantitatively assess the impact of EWDPs on ecosystem services. Coefficients of ecosystem service value (ESV) calculation were improved for regional ESV evaluation. The results showed that the area of construction, farmland and water increased by 6171, 2827, 1393 ha, respectively, and the total ESV increased by 8.04 × 108 CNY primarily due to the increase of regulating service with water area expansion. Redundancy analysis and socio-economic comprehensive analysis showed that EWDPs impacted water area and ESV with threshold and time effect. When the water diversion exceeded the threshold, the EWDPs affected the ESV through influencing LUCC; otherwise, the EWDPs affected the ESV through influencing net primary productivity or social-economic benefits. However, the impact of EWDPs on ESV gradually weakened as time passed, which could not keep sustainability. With the establishment of Xiong'an New Area in China and implementation of carbon neutrality policy, rational EWDPs will become crucial to achieve goals of ecological restoration.

Investing in nature can improve equity and economic returns

Sustainable development requires jointly achieving economic development to raise standards of living and environmental sustainability to secure these gains for the long run. Here, we develop a local-to-global, and global-to-local, earth-economy model that integrates the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)-computable general equilibrium model of the economy with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model of fine-scale, spatially explicit ecosystem services. The integrated model, GTAP-InVEST, jointly determines land use, environmental conditions, ecosystem services, market prices, supply and demand across economic sectors, trade across regions, and aggregate performance metrics like GDP. We use the integrated model to analyze the contribution of investing in nature for economic prosperity, accounting for the impact of four important ecosystem services (pollination, timber provision, marine fisheries, and carbon sequestration). We show that investments in nature result in large improvements relative to a business-as-usual path, accruing annual gains of $100 to $350 billion (2014 USD) with the largest percentage gains in the lowest-income countries. Our estimates include only a small subset of ecosystem services and could be far higher with inclusion of more ecosystem services, incorporation of ecological tipping points, and reduction in substitutability that limits economic adjustments to declines in natural capital. Our analysis highlights the need for improved environmental-economic modeling and the vital importance of integrating environmental information firmly into economic analysis and policy. The benefits of doing so are potentially very large, with the greatest percentage benefits accruing to inhabitants of the poorest countries.

Improving land-cover-based expert matrices to quantify the dynamics of ecosystem service supply, demand, and budget: Optimization of weight distribution

Although the land-cover-based expert matrices have been widely used for ecosystem service assessment, criticisms about the accuracy and reliability of this method have never ceased. In this study, we introduced a weight distribution approach called Full Permutation Polygon Synthetic Indicator (FPPSI) into the land-cover-based expert matrices, trying to reduce the systemic flaws caused by the default weight assignment and accumulative calculation form of general matrices method. Taking Hangzhou, a representative city in the rapid urbanization process of China as an example, we used the weight optimization expert matrices to quantify the dynamics of ecosystem service supply, demand, and budget during the period of dramatic land cover change from 1990 to 2020. An indicator named supply–demand balanced index (SDBI) was formulated to describe the supply–demand situation among ecosystem services. The results indicated that with the continuous encroachment of the artificial surface on suburban cultivated land, the supply and demand of the 12 selected ecosystem services had experienced a decreasing trend in varying degrees. The evaluation results derived from the general method indicated that the ecosystem service budget of the study area had dropped by an average of 11.1% in the past 30 years, while the percentage was only 5.7% through the weight optimization method. Through literature review and discussion, we note that ecosystem services assessment is a process fraught with uncertainty. The weight optimization method has the advantage of being convenient, intuitive, and adjustable. It can also export more conservative evaluation results compared with the general method, which can better reflect the dynamic and non-linear process between land use types and ecosystem services to a certain extent. The above findings provide new insights for reducing uncertainty in land-cover-based expert matrices assessments, which can be applied to the practical assessment of ecosystem supply and demand with dramatic land use/land cover changes.

Temporal and spatial heterogeneity of land use, urbanization, and ecosystem service value in China: A national-scale analysis

Ecosystem service value (ESV) is increasingly influenced by land use/land cover (LULC). At the same time, China's extensive urbanization over the past 40 years has reduced ESV, highlighting a pressing need for spatial studies. However, few studies on the spatial relationship between LULC, urbanization, and ESV, especially at the national level, represent a significant gap in this field. In this research aims, we aim to fill this gap by examining their spatial relationships by studying 279 prefecture-level cities in China. Furthermore, to understand the changing dynamics, we studied the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the effects of LULC and urbanization on ESV in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 using a multiscale geographically weighted regression model. Regarding LULC, the results show that the impact of land use intensity on ESV is significantly negative nationwide, and the trend continued to strengthen from 2005 to 2020. There was significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the effects of land use diversity on ESV, with negative effects in the north and a positive impact in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Concerning urbanization, the association between ESV and different types of urbanization varied greatly over space and time. Our findings suggest that policymakers should pay attention to compact land development, optimize land use structure, and promote the mixed use of land on the basis of rational planning in urban layouts, to mitigate the negative impacts of urbanization and LULC changes on ESV.

Preface

The Geography Education Program, Faculty of Teacher Training and Education, Sebelas Maret University has successfully held an “International Conference on Anthropocene, Global Environmental Change and Powerful Geography (ICoAGPG)” via the online zoom system on August 27th, 2022. ICoAGPG aims to disseminate research results, various ideas on controlling environmental degradation and climate change for a better life and providing input to the government and other policy-making institutions in environmental management to anticipate climate change. The theme of 2022 is the relational understanding of extractive industries, climate change and exacerbation of natural disasters and social injustice.ICoAGPG invited great speakers who are very competent in the global environmental impacts, and they are Prof. Tania Murray Li (University of Toronto, Canada), Dr. Janice Lee (Nanyang Technology University, Singapore), Dr. Erma Yulihastin (Research Center for Climate and Atmosphere, National Research and Innovation Agency), Dr. Yasin Yusup, M.Si (Sebelas Maret University).Topic issues for this seminar are land degradation and land conservation, biodiversity and ecosystem services, forest-based adaptation, hydro-meteorological, biological, and geographysical disaster, water resource management, integrated coastal zone management, air pollution, greenhouse effect and Urban Heat Island (UHI), mitigation and adaptation to climate change, climate change policy, social safety nets and livelihood diversification, environmental economic and law, education for sustainable development, regional planning for disaster management, disaster risk management, resilient cities and communities, green infrastructure and sustainability, sustainable land use and urban planning. There were 86 articles submitted according to the topic above, and after being selected, there were 62 articles chosen to be presented and submitted to the IOP-EES Proceedings. Article authors consist of lecturers, practitioners, teachers and students. The participants who joined at the time of the seminar was 166 participants.Thanks to all of the speakers, authors and participants. See you at the second ICoAGPG.Best RegardsDr. Pipit Wijayanti, S.Si., M.ScChair of the committeeList of Committee, International Conference on Anthropocene, Global Environmental Change and Powerful Geography (ICoAGPG) 2022 are available in the pdf.

Integrating ecosystem service value into the evaluation of sustainable land use in fast-growing cities: A case study of Qingdao, China

Integrating ecosystem service value (ESV) into the evaluation system for sustainable land use (SLU) in fast-growing cities is an effective way to implement Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 15 and 11 of the United Nations' 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Taking ESV as the intermediate parameter, six sustainability indicators were developed to evaluate SLU from two dimensions: sustainable land ecosystem services and economic development. These indicators are the total supply and demand index (RT) of ecosystem services, the potential supply and demand index (RP) of ecosystem services, the ecological cost index per unit of GDP (RC), the eco-economic coordination index (RD), the eco-economic equilibrium index (RE), and the ESV-based sustainable land use index (RS). Empirical research was conducted in Qingdao, a fast-growing city in eastern China, to verify the validity of the indicators. Five sets of Landsat TM/ETM/OLI remote sensing images from 1996, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2017 were used to analyze the land use and ESV changes in Qingdao. The results indicate that land use changes in fast-growing cities significantly affect the ESV. The decrease in the area of ecological land and the expansion of construction land caused by rapid urbanization reduced ESV. The RC and RD of Qingdao were sustainable, while the RT and RP were unsustainable, and the RE showed volatility, which reduced the evaluation level of SLU in Qingdao from extremely strongly sustainable (L1) to moderately sustainable (L3). Thus, it is necessary to improve the ESV of Qingdao. Optimization strategies for promoting SLU in Qingdao are proposed based on the results, confirming that the evaluation provides guidance for land use management.

Spatiotemporal Variation in Land Use and Ecosystem Services during the Urbanization of Xining City

Based on the five phases of land use data from Xining corresponding to 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, we used the equivalent factor method to analyze the values of spatial-temporal variation characteristics of land use and ecosystem services in Xining. The results showed that (1) farmland and developed areas were the most active types of land, and the continuous occupation of farmland and developed areas led to the formation of a kind of “cross shape” in the spatial pattern of conversion of land use types along the Huangshui River, Beichuan River, and Nanchuan River from south to north and from northwest to southeast, respectively, with the central urban area serving as a core of the pattern; (2) the transformation between different land use types mainly occurred in the land-slope range between 0–15° and altitudes between 2000–2750 m; and (3) the ESV of Xining increased by RMB 2165.26 × 106 in the past 40 years. The period from 2000 to 2020 was the main growth period of the ecosystem service value of Xining. Urbanization had a great impact on the variation in land use types and the evolution of ecosystem service values. In the middle and late stages of urbanization, different types of land use changed significantly within each county and district. The ecosystem service values of the central districts were low, with those of the marginal districts and counties being higher, forming a “core-periphery” trend and a phenomenon of hollowing ESV. (4) The spatial agglomeration effect of the ESV per unit area was continuously enhanced in Xining. The high-high (slope-altitude) type of area was distributed in the north and west of Xining, whereas the low-low type of area was distributed in the urban area at the intersection of major rivers in the southeast of Xining.

Distinguishing the impact of tourism development on ecosystem service trade-offs in ecological functional zone

Tourism in ecological functional zones (EFZs) is rapidly becoming an increasing trend; however, its impact on ecosystem services remains poorly understood owing to the absence of a consistent quantification framework. This study uses the Taihang Mountains (THM), an EFZ in China, as an example to develop a framework for evaluating the direct and indirect impact pathways of scenic spots on the trade-offs between multiple ecosystem services by identifying the linkages between scenic spot development, socioeconomic change, land use transitions, and ecosystem services. The results show that the continued conversion of agricultural land, grassland, and forest to constructed land around scenic spots in 2000–2020 was accompanied by a decline in water yield (WY) and habitat quality (HQ); while food production (FP), carbon storage (CS), and soil retention (SR) increased. Land use and ecosystem service changes around scenic spots in the THM also exhibited significant spatial gradient effects. In particular, a 10-km buffer area was identified as a distinct “influence zone” where the ecosystem services trade-offs and land use changes were the most pronounced. In 2010, scenic spot revenue was the dominant factor that increased the trade-offs between SR with FP and CS via direct pathways. However, in 2020, the dominant factor was scenic spot level, which shifted the impact toward the relationship between CS and WY and HQ by intensifying the trade-offs to facilitating synergies. This was accomplished in an indirect manner, such as the facilitation of local population growth, industrial restructuring, and infrastructure development. This study reveals the varying effects of scenic spot development via different pathways, thereby providing useful insights for global EFZs to more precisely design policies that can adequately balance human activities with ecosystem services.

Spatial response of urban land use change and ecosystem service value in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River: A case study of Tongling, China

Exploring the impact of urban land use change (LUC) on ecosystem services is significant for ensuring urban ecological security and realizing regional economic development. This study used land use data from 1985, 2000, 2014, and 2020 of Tongling city and the CA–Markov model to predict the LUC in 2025 and 2030. The spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of LUC during 1985–2030 were analyzed using the land use dynamics model and Sankey diagram. The vegetation-corrected ecological services value (ESV) equivalent was used to quantify the impact of LUC on ESV. Estimating the profit/loss value and spatial autocorrelation revealed ESV’s spatial and temporal dynamics in Tongling city. The results show that: 1) The most obvious LUC in the study area during 1985–2030 is the conversion of cultivated land to built-up land, in which the proportion of cultivated land decreased by 9.6%, and built-up land increased by 12.2%. 2) During 1985–2030, the ESV in Tongling showed an increasing trend at the beginning and then decreased, reaching a maximum value of 274.74 billion yuan in 2000. Regarding individual ecosystem service functions, the hydrological regulation function significantly contributed to ESV changes. The area change in paddy fields and built-up land had the most significant impact on ESV. 3) The total addition of ESV in Tongling during 1985–2030 was 5.98 billion yuan; the total loss was 18.59 billion yuan, and the net loss was 12.6 billion yuan. The proportion of area with ESV gains relative to the whole city is getting smaller, and the proportion of area with ESV losses is growing. The spatial autocorrelation shows the presence of high aggregation in ESV profit and loss areas. Simulating future LUC in Tongling and exploring ESV’s response is beneficial to developing new landscape patterns and ecological protection. It also provides a scientific basis for the extensive promotion of sustainable urban development in the future.

Exploring the impact of integrated spatial function zones on land use dynamics and ecosystem services tradeoffs based on a future land use simulation (FLUS) model

Spatial function zones (SFZs) provide an effective means to determine the function of spatial zone and to optimize land use layout. China has initiated a series of spatial planning policies to delineate SFZs, which influence not only land use configuration but also the structure and function of ecosystems as well as the services ecosystem provides. Taking Wuhan city, China as an example, this study explored the impact of integrated spatial function zones (ISFZs) on four selected ecosystem services (i.e., crop production, CP; water yield, WY; carbon storage, CS; and erosion prevention, EP) and their synergies and tradeoffs. Specifically, by incorporating different spatial functional zones into the land use simulation model, we simulated land use under both business as usual (BAU) and integrated spatial function zones (ISFZs) scenarios. Then, we assessed and compared the ESs and their correlations under the two scenarios. The results showed that compared to the BAU scenario, in the ISFZs scenario, quantities of farmland and forests would be increased by 410.99 km2 and 28.49 km2, while construction land would be decreased by 342.45 km2; average CP, CS and EP would be improved by 0.05, 2.23 t/ha, and 7.3 t/ha, while average WY would be reduced by 6.4 mm; synergies between most pairs of ESs would be slightly promoted. It is concluded that ISFZs are beneficial to sustainable improvement and balanced development of multiple ESs. This study provides theoretical and technical references for the formulation of spatial regulation policy and ecosystem-based management.

Multi-Scenario Simulation and Driving Force Analysis of Ecosystem Service Value in Arid Areas Based on PLUS Model: A Case Study of Jiuquan City, China

The arid region of northwest China is an extremely fragile area of natural ecology. With population growth and continuous expansion of urban scale, the ecosystem in the arid region is facing greater pressure. Scientific assessment and prediction of the value of ecosystem services in arid areas are necessary and of great significance for the sustainable development of regional ecological environments. In this paper, a parametric optimal geographic model is used to analyze the driving factors of ESV spatial dispersion in Jiuquan City as an example. The PLUS model is also used to simulate the spatial and temporal evolution of ESV in 2035 under the scenarios of natural development, urban development, water constraints and ecological conservation, based on the historical change pattern of land use and ecosystem service value (ESV). The results showed that from 1980 to 2020, the plowland, water and construction land area in Jiuquan City showed a significant increasing trend, while other land use types showed a decreasing trend. ESV has increased from CNY 139.394 billion to CNY 142.642 billion. The expansion of plowland and water area was the main reason for the increase in ESV. Elevation, temperature, and precipitation are the main driving factors of spatial differentiation of ESV in Jiuquan City. The interaction of natural and human factors enhances the explanatory power of each factor to the spatial differentiation of ESV. In 2035, the ESV in four development scenarios in Jiuquan City showed an upward trend, and the ESV of the ecological protection scenario was the highest, which was the best mode to realize a sustainable development in Jiuquan City in the future. This study can provide scientific basis and decision-making basis for Jiuquan City to formulate sustainable development strategy.

Effects of land use change on the ecosystem service value – A case study of Jiulongjiangkou, Fujian, China, from 2013 to 2021

In this study, we utilized the dynamic changes in land use and ecosystem service value to provide ecological security protection and realize the coordinated development of ecosystem service functions for the Jiulongjiangkou Wetland Reserve. We counted the land use changes and calculated the ecological service value of the Jiulongjiangkou by using eCognition 9.0, ArcMap 10.2, Fragstats 4.2, and other software based on the remote sensing image from 2013 to 2021 with five phases, which were captured by Landsat-8 satellite. The results showed that the land use type of Jiulongjiangkou City changed significantly and was affected by human activities, in which the wetland area decreased by 8.61 km2, a decrease of 8.5%. In the past ten years, the value of ecosystem service has not increased, which decreased by 1.3*108 RMB in 2021 compared with 2013. In the future, we should continue to increase the protection of forest lands and waters, maintain the stability of the ecosystem of protected areas, rationally plan the land for construction, actively develop green agriculture, and steadily enhance the value of ecosystem service.

Land Use and Ecosystem Services Evolution in Danjiangkou Reservoir Area, China: Implications for Sustainable Management of National Projects

The South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) is one of the largest cross-basin and cross-region water transfer projects in the world. The Danjiangkou reservoir area, a haven of diverse species, serves as a core water source for the Central Line of the SNWDP. Yet, less research has been conducted on changes in land use and ecosystem services (ESs) in the Danjiangkou reservoir area in the context of the implementation of the SNWDP and other national projects. In this study, we aim to reveal evolutions of land uses and ESs in the Danjiangkou reservoir area and the response of ESs to natural and socio-economic factors. This is essential to enhance the regional sustainable management of the Danjiangkou reservoir area. Based on classified land use maps and the InVEST model, we first analyzed the land use changes and evaluated three typical types of ESs (i.e., water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS) and habitat quality (HQ)) in the Danjiangkou reservoir area during 2000 to 2018. Then, we detected the spatial clustering characteristics and tradeoffs and synergistic relationships of multiple ESs through hot spot analysis and correlation analysis. Finally, we adopt the geographical detector model (GDM) to identify key driving factors of ESs changes. The results show that: (1) During 2000–2018, the area of arable land and woodland decreased by 1.65% and 0.8%, respectively, while the proportion of construction land and water area increased by 1.31% and 1.39%, respectively. (2) The greatest decrease was in WY, decreasing by 59%, while the change in HQ was relatively stable, but showed spatial heterogeneity. (3) The northern, southern and western districts of the reservoir area showed mainly synergies among multiple ESs, while other regions showed mainly trade-offs. (4) Road network density, proportion of construction land and normalized difference vegetation index are the leading factors for ESs variations. These findings can provide reference for formulating more reasonable ecological protection strategies, so as to realize the sustainable management of SNWDP and its headwaters region.

Trade-Offs and Synergies between Ecosystem Services Provided by Different Rural Landscape

Ecosystems in rural areas play a crucial role in promoting human well-being and economic development by providing essential resources such as food, water, raw materials, and energy. Furthermore, rural ecosystems offer various services, such as recreational opportunities, climate regulation, biodiversity conservation, and environmental mitigation. However, a narrow focus on provisioning services has led to the standardisation of landscapes, decreased levels of biodiversity and reduced ecosystem services in several areas. Moreover, diverse rural landscapes can enrich the provisioning, regulating, cultural, and supporting services. While much research has explored the relationship between land use, landscape, and ecosystem services, there is still a need to better understand the trade-offs and synergies between these factors in providing ecosystem services. To address this gap, we conducted an empirical analysis of the perception of ecosystem services provided by different rural landscapes in the Tuscany region. Specifically, we used the concept of morphotypes, which describes ‘invariants’ that distinguish six different rural landscape typologies in the region. We surveyed 28 experts to identify rural landscape contributions to 17 ecosystem services. Our results provide empirical evidence and insight into the mechanisms necessary to align the provision of ecosystem services by rural landscapes with current and future needs.

Exploring the effects of protected area networks on the European land system

The European Union's Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 seeks to protect 30% of land, with 10% under strict protection, while building a transnational nature network. We explore the effects of the Biodiversity Strategy targets for land use and ecosystem services across the European land system. To do so, we propose a novel approach, combining a methodological framework for improving green network connectivity with an EU-wide land system model. We identify an improved network of EU protected areas consistent with the 2030 targets, and explore its effects under different levels of protection and in a range of paired climatic and socio-economic scenarios. The existing network of protected areas is highly fragmented, with more than one third of its nodes being isolated. We find that prioritizing connectivity when implementing new protected areas could achieve the strategy's targets without compromising the future provision of ecosystem services, including food production, in Europe. However, we also find that EU-wide distributions of land uses and ecosystem services are influenced by the protected area network, and that this influence manifests differently in different climatic and socio-economic scenarios. Varying the strength of protection of the network had limited effects. Extractive services (food and timber production) decreased in protected areas, but non-extractive services increased, with compensatory changes occurring outside the network. Changes were small where competition for land was low and scenario conditions were benign, but became far larger and more extensive where competition was high and scenario conditions were challenging. Our findings highlight the apparent achievability of the EU's protected area targets, but also the need to account for adaptation in the wider land system and its consequences for spatial and temporal patterns of ecosystem services provision now and in the future.