Exploring the impact of integrated spatial function zones on land use dynamics and ecosystem services tradeoffs based on a future land use simulation (FLUS) model

Abstract

Spatial function zones (SFZs) provide an effective means to determine the function of spatial zone and to optimize land use layout. China has initiated a series of spatial planning policies to delineate SFZs, which influence not only land use configuration but also the structure and function of ecosystems as well as the services ecosystem provides. Taking Wuhan city, China as an example, this study explored the impact of integrated spatial function zones (ISFZs) on four selected ecosystem services (i.e., crop production, CP; water yield, WY; carbon storage, CS; and erosion prevention, EP) and their synergies and tradeoffs. Specifically, by incorporating different spatial functional zones into the land use simulation model, we simulated land use under both business as usual (BAU) and integrated spatial function zones (ISFZs) scenarios. Then, we assessed and compared the ESs and their correlations under the two scenarios. The results showed that compared to the BAU scenario, in the ISFZs scenario, quantities of farmland and forests would be increased by 410.99 km2 and 28.49 km2, while construction land would be decreased by 342.45 km2; average CP, CS and EP would be improved by 0.05, 2.23 t/ha, and 7.3 t/ha, while average WY would be reduced by 6.4 mm; synergies between most pairs of ESs would be slightly promoted. It is concluded that ISFZs are beneficial to sustainable improvement and balanced development of multiple ESs. This study provides theoretical and technical references for the formulation of spatial regulation policy and ecosystem-based management.